저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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금은 M2 대비 역사적 고점이라 과열 경계, S&P 대비 상대강세는 1970년대식 불안 신호로 해석. 비트코인은 알고리즘성 매도로 낙폭이 컸지만 2024년 이후 상승추세(고점 저점 상향)는 유지된다고 주장하며 기관·ETF 편입 맥락을 강조. AI는 1996년 초기 단계에 비유하며 빅테크의 대규모 투자가 필요하다고 봄. 변동성은 불편하지만 장기 기회로 제시.
다듬은 글
Many people are not looking at to it as a a store of value the way they are looking to gold as a store of value and and safety in a time of trouble. Uh now we don't understand that you can see though that the uptrend higher lows in a major way. Uh sure we broke the one I guess from uh 24 but uh that that uptrend general uptrend has not been broken uh and I don't think it will be broken.
It's volatile. It can be uncomfortable but just like last April you know uh these can be very important opportunities to invest in the next big thing. Kathy Wood begins with a macro lens, focusing on gold's relative strength versus the S&P 500. Historically, when gold materially outperforms equities, it signals investor anxiety about inflation, monetary debasement, or systemic instability in the 1970s.
That signal proved preent. The S&P stagnated for over a decade, battered by inflation shocks, oil crises, and tightening monetary policy. Investors who held equities during that period experienced little real return. Today, gold's strength is again turning heads. Even as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has touched record highs, gold has quietly outperformed the S&P.
For many retail investors not deeply embedded in markets, record highs in the Dow create a sense of comfort. But Wood emphasizes that relative performance metrics, especially versus gold, deserve serious attention. ; S&P will get to market indicators relative to gold. were watching this one. It was such an important warning in the 70s that you know the the S&P was uh was going to really have more than I think from 66 to 82 it went nowhere.
It went down, but it really went nowhere over that time. And we certainly don't want to go into a period like that. And we don't think we're going to, but we can't dismiss the fact that gold has been stronger than the S&P here. Uh even though the Dow Jones hit a record high, and I've heard that register with some people who are not in the market.
Uh but to see this tick down is a little uncomfortable. I will say that gold is over its skis. Uh if you look at gold relative to M2, never been higher. uh it's higher now than it was even after the the 70s where we ended up with doubledigit inflation and in the great depression uh where the economy collapsed and gold was uh uh gold was a source of safety until the government took it away.
Uh so uh so we will go with this one for now. And here is another uh we have to acknowledge that gold has way outperformed Bitcoin. Bitcoin has gotten caught up in this risk off in a certain sense dynamic where you know you're getting wholesale uh drops in sectors. No, you know sell now ask questions later.
It's uh certainly happened in the SAS space. It's happened in the wealth management space. Uh it's happened in the trucking broker space. So this like you know algorithmic selling in the market uh definitely has hurt Bitcoin because many people are not looking at to it as a a store of value the way they are looking to gold as a store of value and and safety in a time of trouble.
Uh now we don't understand that um because gold supply growth is um we believe accelerating. Bitcoin supply growth cannot accelerate. Uh now quantum computing, we talked about that. We talked about all all the uh all of the worries uh that um are going around uh in the Bitcoin community, especially as the ETFs have gotten involved.
So we we had newer holders, probably weaker holders, and you know, when they're confronted with those risks, they'll again sell and ask questions later. You can see though that the uptrend higher lows in a major way. Uh sure we broke the one I guess from uh 24 but uh that that uptrend general uptrend has not been broken.
Uh and I don't think it will be broken now could be famous last words but you know a lot of technicians are involved in the market right now. In fact, that's all they're doing. And it's astonishing to me that some of the people um that are so steeped in the research of Bitcoin and other crypto assets have defaulted to technical analysis as this move has taken place.
Well, if you're a technician, look where we are now and you can see that's where we topped in 2017. Uh so that's kind of a marker. There's also some support. You can see there in the 2022 23 range when Bitcoin was actually a refuge for those who were very scared of the regional bank crisis turning into a much broader financial crisis uh with counterparty risk Allah 089 that cannot happen to Bitcoin uh so and and definitely I encourage people to self-custody if if they want to hedge a bit uh uh against counterparty risk because we do have the ETFs now uh involved in um in ownership.
Uh so it's been grueling. Uh but it's also been uh I I don't love these periods because I worry about our clients. Um we use these periods. We've been buying uh in in the crypto space in our various strategies. Um but uh that this is the time where you know you learn about everybody's fears and I described them in the last in the no video and how we've addressed them.
Um, but you learn uh about uh other other uh developments in the crypto asset ecosystem and um uh I have just gotten involved uh in an advisory role with uh a company called layer zero uh which is trying from a defi point of view uh trying to go back to the future and not compromise the way uh the way Ethereum has and and other uh blockchains with layer 2s and so forth, but actually go back to the future and develop an ecosystem for this new age, the agentic AI age, where there's going to be a lot of uh activity, you know, machine to machine uh that can uh handle 2 to 4 million transactions per sec uh per second.
Ethereum can only handle uh 13. Uh Salana maybe 2,000. Uh so you know it's very interesting uh that during tough times the builders in this community are heads down. And so our research surfaces some of this new activity because or this new uh these new approaches um because uh they're they're starting to talk more about them in the context of the way the DeFi ecosystem is currently set up.
Uh so lots of learning and uh uh I guess I'll conclude by by saying um you know unlike the tech and telecom bubble uh this is the real deal. Unlike the tech and telecom bubble people are scared to death. As a portfolio manager in the world of innovation, I would prefer fear and climbing a wall of worry than the speculative excesses that we saw in the tech and telecom bubble.
Now, you might say AI is going through that. That's been part of the worry in the market. Uh we don't think so. We All the research we're doing uh would suggest that we are in the equivalent of 1996 uh in in the technology or the internet revolution that was taking place back then uh very very early and sure it went into overdrive.
It went crazy. But in 1996, that was the year that uh Fed Chairman Greenspan um talked about uh irrational exuberance. Uh and you know that scared people because they thought he was going to tighten to curb speculation, but effectively he said he wouldn't do that. He'd let the market work. And we all learned a lot of lessons uh because of uh what happened after that.
And the scarred tissue uh in the market today because of that is happening uh or is here because those who uh have gone through the tech who who went through the tech and te telecom bubble are are gray hairs in our business now. and they have that scarred tissue, muscle memory, whatever you want to call it, and they're saying as the most seasoned investors, I am going to protect uh my firm against this risk.
And um I I think that is what's keeping uh the fear and this wall of worry going. It's volatile. It can be uncomfortable, but just like last April, you know, uh these can be very important opportunities to invest in the next big thing. And uh we're ready for prime time. We can see the explosion in AI and we can all feel the ground shifting underneath us and uh you know, I can see and hear CEOs, you know, now saying, "Oh my goodness, we have to do something about this." So I think the momentum is going to continue building out there and the most important thing is to get on the right side of change.
A recurring theme in her remarks is the role of algorithmic trading in amplifying volatility. Quantitative systems often react to momentum correlations and volatility spikes without regard to underlying innovation trends. This creates temporary dislocations for active managers conducting deep research.
Such moments provide opportunities to concentrate capital into highest conviction names. She references last year's tariff related turmoil as a case study. Investors who capitulated during sharp declines later regretted selling as markets rebounded strongly. Her message volatility is uncomfortable but often constructive.
Markets climbing a wall of worry tend to reward patient investors. Ultimately, Wood frames the current environment as a generational transition. AI adoption is accelerating. CEOs are recognizing the urgency of transformation. Blockchain infrastructure continues to mature. Machine-driven economic activity is approaching reality.
Most of this volatility is algorithmically generated. Algorithms are not doing the research that we're doing. Uh and so that is why we concentrate towards our highest conviction names. The market gives us that opportunity. Uh so that's been uh a those are our comments around the volatility. Um and you'll remember last April during tariff turmoil I was on here saying look we think this is temporary what's going on in the market.
Remember there was a sharp decline and a lot of people were freaked out. Even the even investors who typically are very calm and and and used to volatility uh they were shaken last year. Anyone who sold during that moment of drama uh regretted it for the rest of the year. The market has been up very strongly since.
This market is climbing a wall of worry. uh those are the strongest bull markets. The volatility does shake uh people up. But frankly, this is so much healthier an environment than what we experienced during the tech and telecom bubble. Uh during that market, uh you know, Jeff Bezos could come out and say, uh you know, we're going to lose so much more money because we're investing aggressively.
this internet opportunity is as vast and even vaster than we imagined and the market would go go up and and take Amazon up 10 15%. Uh that would not happen today. Quite the opposite as the mag six uh companies are basically saying you know we're going to spend more money. uh you're used to our free cash flow dynamics and they've only been moving uh one way for the last five years or so.
Uh that's going to change. Uh and we're seeing uh some of the more traditional investors who uh do focus mostly on free cash flow and free cash uh um flow margins um a little unsettled and taking uh their position sizes down. uh we don't think that is necessarily a good idea. We think that Google and Meta, Microsoft, Amazon um should be spending aggressively because this is the biggest opportunity of our lifetime.
The question is um as we as we evolve towards agentic AI and uh and chat bots, is this going to take time away from traditional social media? are we going to uh from a shopping point of view have our agents do all the work and do it around the internet? So maybe Amazon doesn't get cut in as much as it has been recently.
Um we we will see uh and we'll certainly be paying a lot of attention to share gains and incremental share gains which is what we got right around the SAS call. Kathy Wood's central thesis is clear. This is not a speculative bubble detached from fundamentals. It is an early stage innovation cycle clouded by fear, scar tissue, and algorithmic noise.
Gold surge may reflect anxiety, but its relative overextension suggests caution. Bitcoin's draw down reflects positioning dynamics, not broken fundamentals. AI's heavy capital investment signals ambition, not excess. Unlike the euphoric excess of the tech bubble, today's market is characterized by skepticism.
And historically, skepticism has fueled the strongest and most durable advances. Yes, volatility is grueling. Yes, narratives shift rapidly. But beneath the surface, builders are building, capital is being deployed into transformative technologies, and productivity breakthroughs are taking shape. For long-term investors willing to endure short-term discomfort, Wood believes the opportunity set remains extraordinary.
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