원문 보기
We got some important news regarding BMNR this week as Tom Lee shared his plans after reaching 5% accumulation. In this video, we'll break down exactly what Tom Lee said and what it means for the 5% target that BMNR needs to achieve over the next four to five weeks. Let's start right now. So, we've had quite a bit of content about BMNR this week.
As always, we will start first with the BMNR stock chart, as well as the Ethereum price, and compare them to see the net asset value ratio. We will then move on to the macroeconomics of BMNR, and most importantly, the central theme of the video will be what BMNR will do after achieving this 5% target.
So let's start here, first of all, with the BMNR stock chart. Again , if you are not yet subscribed to the channel, I strongly urge you to do so. This really helps the channel grow. So , if you like these videos and watch them every week, know that about half of you are still not subscribed . Do it now.
So, on Friday, BMNR remained fairly stable. I'm recording this on Saturday. Looking at the past week, BMNR has fallen more than 11 %, trading at $24 per share. If you look here, Ethereum is worth 2500, and it has fallen significantly less in the past week, only about 6% per week. So BMNR, in its typical style, rises above Ethereum as a lending rate when Ethereum rises, and falls more than Ethereum when it falls.
So, BMNR is still below one MNAV right now, I believe, as the price is $24 relative to $2,500 for Ethereum. However, that doesn't stop Tom Lee. He goes on to claim that Ethereum could grow 25x in this cycle. And as we know, we have emerged from cryptowinter. Ethereum is in an uptrend again . Think what you want.
I mean, in June it was around $13, and today it's trading at $24. So, he made a big, very big move. A couple of weeks ago, it was trading at $29 before a pullback. Here, Tom Lee says that Ethereum could reach 22,000 and eventually 62,000. But for that to happen, Ethereum needs to establish itself as the future of finance.
People will have to make transactions using Ethereum. It should become the foundation. And of course, there are several ways we can achieve this, right? Here, for example, tokenization, agent-based artificial intelligence using Ethereum wallets, and, of course, more adoption of the Ethereum ecosystem if institutional investors come in .
That's why we were so optimistic about the Clarity Act, because it gives the green light for institutions to come in. Bitmain, of course, is 90% correlated with the price of Ethereum today. So, let's listen to this passage. This is a 42- second clip from Tom Lee's presentation. Let's listen to it quickly.
Ethereum has been in a range for the past 5 years, but it has broken out of it in the past . 227x growth in 2016, 54x in 2019-2020, and with tokenization and agent AI, could it be 25x growth ? Probably. And look what happens to Bitmain's stock price. Bitmain is 90% correlated with ETH movement. So, if ETH reaches 22,000, Bitmain shares will be worth between $300 and $500.
If ETH reaches 62,000, it will be between $1,200 and $1,500 per share. And now Bitmain is worth 26. That's how things are. Ethereum is at crazy prices and I'm sure everyone holding Ethereum would be very happy, as would everyone holding BMNR, because look at how the prices correlate with BMNR. If Ethereum reaches 22k, BMNR will reach $300-500 per share.
And if it reaches 62 thousand, BMNR will reach $1,200-1,500 per share. Now look, I've said many times in the BMNR weekly reviews that Tom Lee is a little too optimistic, and that sometimes annoys people, especially when Ethereum is at its lows. I mean, Ethereum has been pretty stable over the last 5 years, generally speaking.
And sometimes it sounds inappropriate because he keeps making these crazy price targets while people are losing money on Ethereum. Now this trend has changed a bit, which has given us confidence that we are indeed out of crypto winter, but the fact remains that we still have a lot of growth to do before we get close to five-figure Ethereum prices.
I did a post last week on our latest BMNR video, and if you have n't seen it, be sure to check it out. Now, where Tom Lee is essentially talking about BMNR's potential move to data centers. It was a hint, a tease he gave in X, and I said here, "What happens after BMNR reaches its 5% Alchemy?" I came up with four options, okay?
So, option number one is that they will continue to accumulate up to 10%, because back in January, during the investor day, they said that they could potentially reach 10%. But this is probably not recommended due to network effects; if they reached 10%, it would have too much of an impact on the future of Ethereum.
They can, of course, continue to buy back shares, and as we know, they increased the pace of buybacks quite significantly over the summer. They can expand Maven and their other Ethereum-related businesses. They can build more projects around the ecosystem. And number four, they can build outside the ecosystem.
That is, they can use their capital while continuing to dilute shareholder shares, but doing so by diversifying their assets. They are now 90% correlated with Ethereum. They can lower this figure to 80% or 70%, and this also has its pros and cons. So, those were the four options as of last week. Now we have this clip from Tom Lee that came out this week, and Tom Lee is here talking about exactly what they're going to do after they hit 5%.
So let's take a quick listen. Now we have 6 million. It took us a little over a year to do this. We thought it would take 5 years. And it took a little over a year. More importantly, we did all this in the middle of a bear market, okay? So we bought ETH when no one wanted to buy it. We were happy to buy it cheap.
We bought a lot of 1500, but this is in the middle of a "bear" market, and now we will stop. We only need to get another 100,000 ETH to reach 5%. He said, “Now we will stop. We just need to get another 100,000 ETH.” Because as we know, they have 6 million Ethereum and they need to reach 6.1 million to reach that 5%.
This was the goal that Tom Lee and BMNR had been working towards through weekly accumulation for the past 15 months. He stated on the Token 2049 stage that they would finally stop after reaching 5%. He said, and I quote: "Because you don't have to worry about us trying to raise capital, we're done." This eliminates the first option from the list.
And he even confirmed it in X, saying, "Yes, that's right." And this was in response to this post, which was about Tom Lee just eliminating the threat of BMNR stock dilution. And Tom Lee said, “Yes, there will be no more blurring. " This is over." So, 5% is the ultimate goal, the end of further erosion.
Now the focus for BMNR will shift. And the question of this video is to suggest what exactly this focus will shift to. I mean, it could shift to net asset value per share, to staking income, or to how to create more value for shareholders. And that's what I want to focus on, because I want to bring up those four options again.
And now that the first option is completely ruled out, I want to speculate on what will happen after they reach 5% of Ethereum. There are three options left that are still on the table. So, what do we know for sure? We know that Tom Lee said they would stop after 5%. We know they will achieve this within weeks.
By my estimates, it's about four to five weeks. What will happen next? Option number one, as I said, they will buy back more shares. The idea is to use the cash they have from staking rewards to buy back shares. If Ethereum volume is stable and BMNR continues to buy back shares, each remaining share represents a larger share of Ethereum treasury.
So, if they reduce the number of shares by 10% and the Ethereum balance does not change, then the number of Ethereum per share increases. That's good for shareholders, right? Because your stake in Ethereum can grow without having to buy more shares. Net asset value will also increase as a result of this.
The share buyback uses the company's cash, and as of the last report, they had about 600 million in cash. But a stock buyback is also the most direct and clear value proposition when stocks are trading below their net asset value, as we saw at the beginning of the video. Since BMNR is trading at $24 and Ethereum is trading at $2500, right?
So if the shares have net assets of $10 and are trading at $8, then buying them is a discount purchase because it increases the value of the assets behind each remaining share. By the way, this is already happening. As I said, they increased these volumes in the summer. BMNR also authorized a $4 billion buyback, and Tom Lee reported $350 million spent on repurchasing 21 million shares.
This 4 billion is, in fact, the spending limit. This is not money that has already been spent. This is just permission. So what I'm wondering about is share buybacks—do they really reduce the total number of shares after reaching 5%? Is this a metric they will start tracking more actively once they reach the 5% mark?
And can they provide a better return by simply buying back shares instead of investing in something else? This is option number one. This is a buyback by BMNR of a larger number of shares. Option number two, which I listed in the list of four options, right? The first is to reach 10%. The second is to buy back more shares.
The third is the development of new businesses around the Ethereum ecosystem. Further strengthening its position in the Ethereum ecosystem. So the idea here is very simple. We want to preserve the Ethereum treasury and create additional ways to earn money around this treasury. Maven is the clearest example of how they can do this.
So, Maven is a BMNR staking platform that can serve both institutions and other Ethereum holders. It works like this: customers essentially retain ownership of their assets, while Maven manages the staking infrastructure and receives a commission for it. These are the rewards that BMNR receives in cash, as well as the staking rewards for BMNR itself , as they also stake through Maven.
This way, BMNR can grow this business without having to buy additional Ethereum for its own balance. A simple overview is this: Let's say you have a billion dollars in client assets yielding 3%. This will generate $30 million in annual staking rewards. If you take a 10% commission on this amount because you run the network through Maven, this would bring BMNR $3 million in revenue before expenses.
This could be beneficial for shareholders as BMNR can earn both from Ethereum services and its own staking rewards, right? In my opinion, if we follow the logic of this option, BMNR could acquire other businesses in the Ethereum ecosystem to attract more customers, technology, and expertise. They can also buy other companies that own digital assets, right?
This is another possibility. For example, if assets can be purchased cheaply, if other digital asset companies are trading below their net worth, BMNR could make a takeover offer to try to increase the number of Ethereum synthetically— not by buying Ethereum on the open market, but simply by buying a company that also owns Ethereum.
There is also the question of the limit. If you acquire another company's Ethereum, it will increase the total assets under BMNR's control. So management will probably look into this , because they'll need to explain how this fits into that 5% narrative, right? Because, let's say, management says, "Hey, we're not going to buy any more Ethereum." But then they buy a digital asset management company and increase their stake from 5% to 10%, shareholders will ask, “Why did n’t you just buy Ethereum ?” So, this is investing in the Ethereum ecosystem.
They can buy more digital asset management companies, they can invest more in Maven, they can provide services to have another source of revenue in addition to the Maven system. And now option number three, the last option we're going to talk about, is that they can invest outside of Ethereum. And the idea here is similar to other investments they've made outside of the ecosystem.
For example, Mr. Beast is one of them. Eight co—another one, ticker Orbs. This shows that BMNR has a desire to invest outside the Ethereum ecosystem for further diversification. This actually changes the riskiness of BMNR as an investment because when it gets big enough, there is no need to keep all your eggs in the Ethereum basket.
You can diversify. And this is where Tom Lee's suggestion last week is very interesting, isn't it? Because Tom Lee didn't dismiss the idea of a data center. If BMNR controls the relevant sites and access to electricity, it can upgrade this infrastructure and lease the capacity to a computing company.
She can collaborate with someone , right? For example, there are many experienced operators. Nebius, for example, right? This is an experienced operator that BMNR can simply partner with , where they can share the costs and also share the profits. Now, how can shareholders benefit from this? Well, there are a few reasons, right ?
First of all, if you think about it, right? Long-term shareholders benefit because diversification occurs. Long-term contracts with clients can generate regular rental and hosting income from their data center project. You, I mean , have to figure out the issue of access to electricity. I talked about this in a previous video: signing contracts with customers, you know, construction costs, financing and when it actually starts generating cash.
That is, of course, if you go the route of building a data center. But then again, they can invest in anything outside the ecosystem to diversify this asset class. Now the key question we have to ask about this last option is: does management have an advantage in this business? And will this money be justified by the return on investment (ROI) it can potentially bring?
What is this potential? So, these are the options for what I will be monitoring after reaching 5%. Tom Lee will probably come up after reaching 5% and say, " Hey, we met our first phase goal. Here's what phase two looks like. Here's what we're going to do after we reach that goal." I will keep an eye on where these funds come from.
Does the income from staking cover all their financial obligations and expenses? Is this something else, or is it? What happens to staking rewards? Does BMNR keep the extra Ethereum for itself, or sell some for other opportunities? Of course, if BMNR starts selling Ethereum, it will have its own negative consequences for perception.
Will the issuance of shares stop? That is, do they stop capital erosion altogether? Completing the accumulation can significantly reduce the need for equity capital, but acquisitions and other projects require financing, right? So, if you're talking about buying a large company, you'll likely have to dilute the shares because there won't be enough cash on hand.
The test for BMNR shareholders after reaching 5% is the question: does this increase assets and stable cash income per BMNR share? That's why I said that BMNR's goal, milestone, and investment proposition will change from an accumulation metric to a net asset value, or perhaps the value of Ethereum per BMNR share, i.e.
how strong the underlying connection is. This is just a speculation video, but this week Tom Lee ruled out one of four options for us. He ruled out the possibility of them reaching the 10% level. Other options could still prove very positive for shareholders. We just have to wait and see what happens in the end.
Of course, we expect the full accumulation to be complete within the next 4-5 weeks when they reach 6.1 million Ethereum, or about 5%, and once that happens, we expect management to share the next phase of the plan. If you have n't subscribed to these videos yet, I strongly recommend you do so now. This really helps the channel grow.
Thanks so much for watching, and I'll keep you posted if Tom Lee says anything or changes this trajectory, but until then, this is what we're watching . Thank you very much for watching, see you in the next video.
Comments 0