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Okay, let's watch Clear Side because everyone wants to see it since there's news coming very soon. It's another binary event. I guess we have four now. It really feels like it's the last two days. Only the last five calendar days. Perhaps those are genuine impressions, indeed. We'll allow you to exclude them if you want.
High-resolution 15-minute candles at least here. We should get 1-second candles too. And I should draw new candles if we want. So the stocks may not necessarily continue to rise for many reasons. One is that you think of the stock market as a function of extracting GDP, and that function is multivariable.
You have GDP as an input and, for example, earnings per share as an output. The problem is that you're assuming GDP growth will outpace inflation, and the only thing that could happen there are productivity gains, as we know from basic economics, right? So, which country will have productivity gains, and can you predict that?
That's basically equivalent to saying the stock will go up. Not all countries have productivity gains or the compensation for those gains. Hello Nelson, welcome . The compensation for productivity gains includes things like fraud. You have fraud and things like that. You are deceiving yourself. You have elitism, regulations, protectionism; There are no productivity gains.
In economic terms, theory says that the only way GDP can grow, at least GDP per capita, is through productivity gains, although not in all markets. And the productivity gains offset each other because, as I said, the stock market is not GDP; The stock market is an extreme drain on GDP. Not all GDP flows into the stock market, and there are many other things that get in the way of that extraction.
For example, taxes, regulation, fraud; All of these are frictions that eliminate those productivity gains and possibly make them negative. Now, I believe that AI will make us more productive. But yes, there will be things that get in the way of productivity, sometimes in big ways and sometimes in small ways.
The United States works and has worked because we generally allow that productivity to flourish. We let it compose itself. Europe functions less because productivity is not applied as much. They have unions that are very unproductive. For example, taxes decrease productivity. They are taxed based on productivity.
They literally say, "Good, you're more productive." Brilliant. Let us have a share of that productivity. So, there are a lot of problems with assuming that stocks can go up for a long time. Maybe I'll write a good article about it or something. Yes. I mean, entrepreneurship is practically stagnant in China .
Yes. Yes, I mean, it's a very contrary opinion as well. So you have to give me some credit for bringing it up. Speaking of graphics and scams, the good thing about GameStop, and it must be acknowledged, is that Cohen doesn't get paid. It's quite important. You know, he's not diverting company money into his own pockets.
He is already rich. So that 's great. But I'm not sure I'd pay such a high premium for that. And I think Roaring Kitty is an idiot and a con artist. I don't know about Sam Altman. I like Sam. Oh, I'm talking about Sam in relation to OpenAI. Yes. Look, OpenAI is one of the most successful startups of all time.
You need to have at least 10 or 20 million in revenue to go public. Probably close to 50 before it's worth doing. And you need to use the capital. Fortunately, we do use a lot of capital. We love doing mergers and acquisitions. Very good. Let's take a look at Clearside. People really want me to analyze that one.
Binary event. I always like to trade in binary events. It's a one-dollar stock. So there's only one way to operate this. It's probably an injection into some kind of eye device. That's his, his magic injection. Suprachoroidal. Correct. So what do they call this? SCS. Now CLS AX for Clearside. Yes, they were a little scared and now they've realized they can't be.
The problem with Google is that they don't have a good product team. They are very reluctant to launch products. Private equity markets are interesting. They will become more developed and are a reaction to the SEC. You know, nature will find the lowest entropy, right? If it's easier to do all this without public markets, we'll do it all without them.
I don't follow any YouTubers who trade or invest. I don't think you should do it either, unless they 've worked on Wall Street and are serious people, you know, none of that "zero to hero" stuff. And some people may be able to go from zero to hero, but anyone who's talented...No, I worked on Wall Street.
That's not going from zero to hero. Anyone who is talented will work at Citadel or Point72. It's simply too lucrative. Why wouldn't you? You're a good operator. Steve Cohen will give you $500 million and say, "Here, go trade, I'll split the profits with you instead of with those guys who, you know, trade on YouTube." Come on, wake up.
Technical analysis. A real job. I don't even know anything about Michael Burry. I don't even know who he is. Do you want to see...? Do you want to meet the real traders on Wall Street? Look at my...go to my GitHub. Look at all these guys. These are the real players on Wall Street. No Michael Burry. Oh, I mean , I run a software company.
We raised a lot of money. We're doing very well. We just laid off a group of people and replaced them with better people. Much more productive. OK. So, they had Oasis in phase one two. This should be a letter test, probably the change in visual acuity since the beginning. Alright. So no, this is not a real clinical trial.
They are not comparing against Eylea. Exactly. It's just a sort of "there's going to be something, I guess," like informational data. It's not a matter of pass or fail. If it's a change from the beginning, of course it's going to change from the beginning. You're going blind, you're taking medication for AMD, you're going to change.
It is the change compared to the control group. That 's important. I'll see if I can find this presentation. This will be useful . And 500 people have read this article. Sad. Yes. I don't want the summary. I want the entire document. It says open access. Let me in. Look, I do n't know what they're trying to achieve in this essay.
So they want... they probably want non-inferiority, no less than 12 weeks, and injections every eight weeks. It's something like " as needed". It's a little strange. Oh, wait a second. Both patients are receiving Aflibercept, which was approved. Simply sell the stock short. You don't have to make choices.
I believe keratoconus can be cured, but I'm not sure. It's been a long time since I've checked that disease. I really don't know. It's a one-dollar stock. I don't know how many call and put options you can buy. That the company's stock is a purchase option. The problem is that we don't know. We don't have real data on monotherapy.
Number four seems to be okay. Don't know. It could be a purchase. Don't know. It's hard to say . As I've always liked to say, you don't have to do any calculations. Let me see if I can call one of its shareholders. Armist was cut in half. There are so many companies trying to get into this, like AMD, you know, the Regeneron-type space, and carve out a small market for themselves.
No one has been able to achieve it. They are brutal. These guys have been nothing more than a dilution machine. Literally, they've dropped by 95%. Paraggo is this over-the-counter drug company. Highly leveraged. When you see those store- brand medications, they're usually the company that manufactures them.
You guys need to learn how to short sell. Stocks don't go up forever. Don't be naive, right? Protect yourselves at all times. Protect your neck. That's what Wu-Tang taught us. The stock market is not a competition of relevance. It's a cash flow competition. They think it's a popularity contest. Which is the most relevant company?
You just buy that one. That's all. That's all you need to know. Don't know . These movements in Bitcoin usually continue . Look at this, the impulse is negative. What do they call that tone? Impulse. The momentum is not good. Look at that. Look at that right there. Six months of decline. Lower minimums is what they call that on Wall Street.
Lower minimums . Lowest minimum. Lowest minimum. Lowest minimum. There will probably be another lower low. This could be a good short position. One month down, one month up. one, but less than the descent. One month down, one month up. One month down, one month up . Why wouldn't we go down for another month ?
Why would it break down? It could break. Don't know. I never want to see another XYZ action. As in biotechnology. I never want to hear about another biotechnology action again. That sector is dead . The same goes for the internet. I simply don't want to look at another internet stock for the rest of my life.
Yes, you're going to need a bit more of a price drop before you can call it a bear market for cryptocurrencies. Prices have been somewhat stable. At least people have stopped saying the word cycle. No, I don't follow any macroeconomics yet, but I'm open to analyzing macroeconomics more because people ask me about it all the time.
The same thing I'm about to do with ADMA. ADMA has become more of a revenue generator over time. It's truly incredible. I remember when this company was so small and had such ambition to achieve this huge revenue growth, and they did. It's really great. So, I'm just going to download it that way. And that will look even better with the AI and things like that that we're going to add to it.
So, it 's much easier to do everything. Very good. Yes, I remember when ADMA was a very small company. It appears that Millennium may have sold all of its ADMA shares. Oh yes, I want to look at the structure because they have a GLP. A new LPG company also launched today. Privately owned. They raised 400 million, Series I.
Yes, good idea. Guts? No, I don't know, that seems like too much work. You always have to manage the risk-benefit relationship, in the sense that you can't put all your eggs in one basket. Other than that, I don't know. I mean, the greater the conviction, the larger the size, that's pretty clear, Kelly-type criterion.
Oh wow, she really only had that career in the last year. So, everyone had been waiting for this for years . This is a bit disappointing. $2. Finally, all of his income arrived. That's crazy. The market was efficient back then . They knew it in 2015. Guide from 400 to 445 million. Are they selling this plasma to pharmaceutical companies or are they selling the drug?
Oh, no. They have a non- recurring boost from Asceniv in revenue. That's all that needs to be eliminated. But it's all IVIG. All Asceniv. Asceniv. Incentive. Yes. I mean, IVIG is a big business. That's why I really liked this action a while ago. It's a very small company. Yes. I mean, it's certainly not cheap with an enterprise value of almost 5 billion.
So it all depends on, you know, how many years of exclusivity are left. These people are capable, aren't they? They need to expand their capacity. The IVIG market has had some difficult capacity problems. But EBITDA does pay taxes. It is an American company. It is almost exclusively American. So you ca n't evade taxes.
OK. Asceniv still has supply restrictions, perhaps. Yes. Primarily just cash flow. Cash flow and how many years are left, basically that . If there are only a finite number of years left, I would simply discount the cash flow. If it's like this company, you know, there's no generic IVIG, I'd think about a multiple.
You can't play with that blood. You know, there will be ways to make polyclonal. It's not generic, but less so, you know, collecting blood from people is an old-fashioned process. Paying people for donations. So it's not a donation, right? Do you know who has that technology? It's... Grifols bought it, they bought this small company that makes this weird stuff about polyclonals.
Obviously, it's not ready for prime time yet . I don't know how to do it. Alright . So, this is IV at 10%. Takeda sells a lot of different ones. This isn't Takeda, is it? This is CSL. No, this is Takeda. OK. Competence. Gamagard. I don't know what Gamagard Liquid is because I assume there's a subcategory.
IVIG and SQI. I guess. Hyqvia, I do n't think Hyqvia is used that much, is it? Let's look at Takeda's model, and then Baxter has it, right? Perhaps they will reveal it. Immunoglobulin; They may not reveal it, yes, they only say IVIG. But I suppose that's the point here. The thing is, if Takeda is making 7 billion in sales from IVIG and all these things are basically the same, whether it's Grifols or Takeda, these guys could eventually get a huge market share, and that means they could have massive potential.
And it seems like a well-run company. This guy managed the company from. basically nothing until this incredible success. So I would bet on him instead of one of these big pharmaceutical companies. Combative , aggressive. That's interesting. Yes. I mean, I thought that was largely IVIG's market. I mean, it's actually used for a lot of things.
Gam X. 7 billion in revenue for Grifols. Um, did Baxter get rid of IVIG? They do BioTherapeutics. Ah, yes. SAB is interesting. I don't know much about Roger Newton. Was that the guy from Seattle Genetics? I think Baxter got rid of IVIG a long time ago. Yes, it 's Takeda now. Takeda acquired. Baxalta.
Ah, that's it. That was a long time ago . And then Takeda bought Shire, of course. Yes, I don't know much about Roger Newton. That was a long time ago . I don't think he was still active, but I don't know. Ah, that guy. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. I remember now. I don't think it's that great. I don't think they see him as a magician or anything like that.
So, we have Takeda, Grifols, and there are like two more. CSL, of course. Yes. I guess I'm pretty optimistic about these guys then because. They can continue to increase their capacity. I would n't say there's no limit to their growth, but I could easily see them reach one billion. And they say they could have even bigger margins, which is great.
Margins have risen from very low to very high. From 20 to 50 percent. These things don't sell themselves, of course. You need to work on it, Charlie. Just because there's a war doesn't mean we should rush out and buy war stocks. It doesn't work like that . You can spot the newbies as soon as they walk in .
The question is, what's changing in the IVIG market, you know? Okay, this implies a valuation of 4 billion, which makes sense, but at the same time it doesn't quite add up. Hey, let me see. More terminal years. Yes. I don't know. The numbers aren't adding up. One would think so. Yes. I mean, I guess there's a lot of discounted growth for this, which is frustrating because it looks really attractive.
Perhaps I shouldn't calculate such a distant terminal value . Perhaps it can give it five more years of growth, but it won't grow at that rate. So I need to adjust this a little. Let's say team 10. Uh, this is what matter does, right? Good. You get double plus 10% of your discount. Yes, I like Adam, man.
I force the model to make sure I like the action, right? Future earnings, Willie. He only forecasts future profits. Discount it backwards. Yes, Lukey. It's the future. It's definitely the future. It's not much more expensive than 11 Labs. It's cheaper than 11. So it'll hurt 11 Labs more. But that $40 a month is fine for now.
They will rise to at least 100 when we launch a bunch of new features. Yes. You know, Adam is an acceptable long position . Yes, they have to keep executing and this model I have takes them to a billion in revenue, maybe even two billion someday with more and more IVIG. Numbers give you a headache. Finance is not for you.
The stock market is not for you. You're in the wrong place. Good. So, yes. I like Emma.
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