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엔비디아 2023년 1분기 실적 발표 직후 영상. 매출은 전년 대비 감소했지만 2분기 가이던스(약 110억 달러, 컨센서스 70억 달러 대비 50% 이상 상회)를 근거로 실적 상향 재평가와 주가 추가 상승을 주장. 데이터센터 급성장, TSMC 공급 여력, 경쟁사 AMD 대비 1~2년 기술 우위를 근거로 제시. 대안으로 TSM·SMH 간접 노출 제안.
다듬은 글
what is going on investors hopefully you guys are doing well out there and if you've got shares of Nvidia in your account you're currently making a tea time for Thursday and making reservations at a steakhouse because the last of the major tech stocks reported their q1 numbers after the bell and it was as good as we've ever seen this stock is popping over 25 in the after hours when we come over here and look at this from a technical perspective I am having to put a fake green candle in here that just essentially goes off the charts we'll talk about this from evaluation a technical perspective we'll look at some other options some of you might be like ah this Stock's run away or maybe you already have a position in this and it's grown to be this gigantic position in your portfolio well there's other ways to continue to play the upside we'll talk about some other ways to do that as we move through the show now obviously we got to get into this q1 quarter we'll take a look at the revenue the profits all those types of things and it wasn't just this quarter it's really the subsequent quarters that in my opinion that is sending this stock higher now I just got off the conference call listen to the whole thing and I haven't heard a more bullish conference call since probably 2020 when the government was giving everybody free money now year to date this stock is up just a hundred and thirteen percent and that doesn't include a 25 rise in the after hours over the last year you're up 90 and over the last five years you're up just 400 percent this stock just continues to go higher now Revenue in the most recent quarter came in at 7.19 billion dollars that was actually a decline year over year by the tune of 13 but it did beat expectations wildly by over 670 million dollars so they knocked it out of the park in this quarter but where Nvidia really hit not just one grand slam but really back to back grand slams is the Q2 Outlook folks Wall Street was expecting a number at 7.11 billion dollars in terms of Revenue that would have represented six percent growth year over year and Nvidia said absolutely not we're going to do over 50 percent better than that they're going to put up 11 billion dollars in Revenue when Wall Street was expecting 7 billion that is for the upcoming quarter now the reason why I wanted to tune into the conference call because I knew the very first question that people would be asking management over as Nvidia is can this continue can this type of Rapid Revenue increase that we've seen an unexpected Revenue increase that we've seen over in Nvidia can it continue and we got an unequivocal yes yes and yes from management and that is why the stock initially was up 14 and just continues to go up as we are recording this video so what you're going to see over the next couple of days certainly uh for through the rest of this week and into next week is a re-rading of the stock from a revenue perspective and then people are going to back into these earnings these earnings estimates which are up quite a bit year over year expecting 100 growth that is going to rapidly accelerate the revenue not going to be 7 billion dollars next quarter it's going to be close to 11.
Q3 is probably going to be a number very close to that if not higher Q4 as well when you look for the full year Wall Street was expecting just 30 billion dollars in revenue or about 12 percent growth this company has a shot at probably coming darn near close to 50 billion dollars so it's going to cause a complete re-rating of the stock from a revenue perspective and then obviously from an earnings per share perspective as well when we come over here and look at these numbers you're are going to see very good gross margins now are they as good as last year not quite but this company is going to be able to maintain margin and expand Revenue that is going to dramatically expand your net income otherwise known as your earnings per share so we're going to see a re-rating of this stock from that perspective as well that is all coming over the next couple of days and week ahead now the company's q1 was good wasn't great but again management reiterated on the call the fact that Q2 is going to come over 50 percent above expectations when it comes to revenue and so is Q3 and so is Q4 and so is out into Infinity until competitors start to catch up because Nvidia is well ahead of the other competitors namely AMD and while AMD is likely to have a product on the GPU side that is somewhat competitive to Nvidia where is NVIDIA going to be at that time once that product comes to Market it takes years it takes years to develop these types of advanced chips and Nvidia is likely a year or two ahead of all the competition depending on who you ask some might even say they're upwards of three years ahead of competition that should allow the company to continue to generate large amounts of revenue and profit for the foreseeable future you see the data center absolutely explosive sequentially quarter over quarter year over year you're seeing growth probably the highest number they've ever put up at 4.3 billion dollars Gaming's still struggling a little bit but a massive acceleration over where you were a quarter ago 1.8 billion up to 2.2 billion dollars last year they were at 3.6 so that's a segment of the business to continue to come back if you get cryptocurrencies making a bull run which certainly you look at this stock it's going to lead a lot of the markets higher probably a lot of risk assets going to perform relatively well at least in the shorter term also interesting is their automobile segment ticked up just marginally sequentially but year over year essentially a double that led to 7.2 billion dollars worth of Revenue which is well north of a billion dollars more than they were a quarter ago again though down from a year ago but more importantly when we start to look at Q2 they're going to go from 6.7 billion dollars up to over 11 billion dollars in their guidance they gave you a plus or minus another two percent on this my guess is they're gonna come over that 11 billion dollar Mark now what's also holding up are those gross margins that's very important as you start to expand that Revenue holding those gross margins will mean obviously a lot of that money will flow down to the net income and the EPS of this company the other thing that they talked about on the conference call is their partners that they have manufacturing this ship namely Taiwan semiconductor manufacturer TSM they are locked and loaded to deliver the demand and the product that Nvidia has obviously it would suck if you had supply chain or if you had bottlenecks there didn't sound like on the conference call they're going to have any problem needing demand obviously there's probably somewhat of a shortage and you just can't get by Infinity amount of GPU so the h100s that Nvidia has but the company's likely not going to have a lot of supply chain constraints which is also very important also tsm's customers some of their other customers not doing quite as well as Nvidia so TSM is going to have the capacity and maybe give better discounting and better margins to Nvidia as they start to ramp up their business as well now come over here to the Brass tax of the numbers the 7.2 billion dollars worth of Revenue again about a billion dollars less than where we were a year ago your gross profits though remained relatively strong our gross profit coming in at 4.7 billion dollars again it takes two to three years I think probably three years at least to develop new Chips the company continues to spend on r d about 1.9 billion dollars this quarter compared to a year ago when they spent about 1.6 billion dollars your total operating expenses coming in at 2.5 billion dollars it is down considerably from a year ago when they were at about 3.6 billion dollars but you have this acquisition termination cost this was the arm likely the arm acquisition that Nvidia tried to do I think it was around 50 billion dollars there was a termination cost baked in there when Regulators did not approve that deal if you strip that out operating expense is actually up year over year but not a lot and what you have to factor in is sequentially next quarter we're likely to do about 11 million dollars in Revenue I would assume the margins are going to be kind of in this low 60s mid 60 type percentage range so you can back into a gross profit add a little bit to the r d sequentially and this company is going to print a massive amount of money to their income from operations well north of 2.1 one billion dollars that they did this quarter they're going to print even more next quarter and then when you look out into Q3 and Q4 it just all makes a lot of sense why this stock continues to rock it higher now from a balancing perspective there's nothing to worry about the company has plenty of cash very little debt in fact when you look up here their net expense on the debt is actually a positive they have interest income of 150 million they spend about 66 million servicing that debt so they actually make money on their balance sheet so there's absolutely nothing to worry about there from a cash flow perspective paints a glorious story when you pull down a two billion dollar net income number which is higher than a year ago largely because of that termination a breakup fee that Nvidia had to pay even when you factor that in boom 2.9 billion dollars worth of positive cash flow last year you're sitting at 1.7 billion dollars they don't do a lot on the investing activities because they have a great partner in TSM that does a lot of the manufacturing so they don't have to invest a lot in property plant and equipment and then when you come down here to the financing activities they don't really do a whole lot they don't have a buyback they don't really have a lot of uses for this positive cash flow something investors well they're not going to be worried about right now you start looking forward a couple of years maybe they'll want to see something done now obviously this stock is worth right now 760 billion dollars tomorrow another 20 maybe 30 percent higher who knows we're essentially looking at a one trillion dollar company that's doing on a good day three billion dollars worth of operating cash flows clearly not cheap but what the market is factoring in is there's going to be a complete re-rading of this stock as you start to look out for subsequent quarters that is essentially a fact at today's time it's essentially a fact that Q2 q3q 4 are going to be gigantically better than expectations now what investors have to start to ponder is as you start to look into calendar year 2024 or fiscal year 2025 for NVIDIA how much better is it even going to be Wall Street was it wasn't expecting 11 billion dollars till July of 2025.
essentially two years from now and the company is going to do 11 billion dollars next quarter and so you know look the stock soaring actually makes a lot of sense and we've put a big gigantic green candle this one's gone parabolic there's nothing really to think about this from a technical perspective I assume at some no I I don't assume there will be pullbacks in this at some point there wasn't a large amount of short interest so you can't attribute this law sometimes you see these large Pops in its short interest not in a name like this not in a name that pays a small dividend if you were short this name you have some cojones of Steel and certainly a lighter wallet after tomorrow pull back certainly to the previous all-time Highs at 3 30 maybe could be bought just certainly depends now a lot of you are watching this video you probably already own Nvidia okay and so maybe you bought 100 shares or you bought 10 shares it doesn't really matter my guess is with this type of performance it's grown into like your number one position so maybe initially it was like the fourth or fifth largest stock but because it's performed so well now it's so large and you're wondering what to do well first of all you let your winners run you don't cut bait anytime early unless you absolutely have to there's other ways to play this you're going to look at TSM tomorrow this stock should rally pretty hard in fact in the after hours TSM is up eight percent there's other semiconductors from a design standpoint you've got AMD this stock up nine percent in the after hours I'm sure when we look at Intel it's probably going to be less yeah in fact Intel's actually down in the after hours wouldn't recommend Intel at the current time I think the way to Double Down is on on Nvidia well certainly you you can come in here and if you want to buy the parabolic move by all means it's a momentum play and you could you can buy that there's certainly option strategy as well the probably the cleanest way to do it is the SMH which I believe it's number one holding is NVIDIA you're seeing in the after hours this is moving six percent so not quite the beta that you have owning Nvidia directly but this is really directed at a lot I'm sure most of you viewing this video already have a position in Nvidia a way to kind of double down on it without taking just direct buying of Nvidia adding to your cost position is actually by a derivative of it the SMH TSM would probably be my number one and number two choice in order to play continued upside in Nvidia without giving yourself even more exposure to something that is run well north of 100 percent in just a couple of months folks that was nvidia's q1 that wraps up this quarter's earnings season when it comes to the major cap tech stocks will certainly be back again on Friday to discuss this even more we'll certainly take a look you almost want to take a screenshot of this and see how much these are going to adjust over the next couple of days what I am very interested in see is look the rest of this year is going to be fantastic for NVIDIA a lot of that is priced into the stock now we're starting to look a year forward two years forward where is Wall Street going to put these numbers since the company has already achieved this for the upcoming quarter can we see this company putting up 15 20 30 billion dollars in a quarter are there any Wall Street analysts going to project that when we start looking out two years because if you start projecting that type of Revenue well all of a sudden a one trillion dollar valuation while still relatively rich not as crazy as it might seem on the surface that was Nvidia will be back again on Friday for the thanksg recap show likely at its usual time hopefully you guys have a wonderful day out there we'll be back again soon good luck with your Investments
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