저자: Kevin · 외국인
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4/12 CPI 발표를 앞두고 주간 이벤트(카맥스·델타·은행 실적, PPI)를 점검. 헤드라인 CPI 전망은 전월비 0.2%로 하향, 연간 5.1%로 큰 폭 둔화 예상이나 근원 CPI는 소폭 상승 전망. 근원 서비스 항목(항공료, 주거비 등) 디플레이션 여부가 핵심. 연준 5월 25bp 인상 확률 약 65%, 6월 동결 확률 약 65%, 연말 인하 기대가 선반영. 은행 위기 중 주가는 오히려 상승, 실적장세는 소수 대형주 주도.
다듬은 글
all right folks this is a big week we've got April 12th coming up which is a CPI week that's potentially more important than jobs data week which is wild to say but potentially is more important than jobs data week in addition to t likes to make decisions how they kind of messed up potentially last time we'll talk about Nick T's latest argument on the Federal Reserve we'll also talk about the economists a take on what's happening with the stock market so a lot of things again Catalyst event fed then we'll talk about uh the stock market and uh and potential movements coming up this week so the first and by far biggest Catalyst of this week is going to be CPI but not only are we going to get the consumer prices we're going to get some earnings reports and a few of them will actually help us uh well actually really just one of them will help us potentially right before CPI and in my opinion that's Carmax Carmax reports at 6 50 am am scheduled to at least on the 11th that's in two days that's Tuesday morning so we're going to be getting at Carmax report and uh the estimate they're looking for about 22 cents but why CarMax well one of the reasons I like CarMax is because obviously they're a used car dealer one of the things that we're seeing is we're seeing used car wholesale prices rise but used car prices aren't necessarily coming up with how much those wholesale prices are rising so what that means is if input costs are up but consumer prices are staying limited margin is getting squeezed right so we would expect if we think inflation is going to come in softer we would expect that potentially CarMax wouldn't be seeing that much of an average price increase per vehicle and their margin there is sort of the difference between what they're paying what they're able to sell cars for might show some shrinking pressure now whether or not the stock moves up or down has everything to do with the expectations that analysts have set for CarMax which is really beyond the scope of this video but more importantly I think we can look at Carmax as sort of a little CPI preview because used and new cars make up somewhere between five to six percent of CPI and pce depending on which one you're looking at obviously this week we're going to be looking at CPI that's sort of the most popular one and uh in my opinion we're going to want to pay really close attention to CarMax as a leading indicator in terms of what we're going to be seeing on on in that car or on that car side so that could be a little bit of a trading heads up for us so I'd definitely be paying attention to CarMax again that is on the 11th then on the 12th we'll get CPI followed by more consumer data on 4 fortunately after the CPI release for example on April 13th we'll be getting Delta Airlines we'll see our Airlines still able to raise prices that's a big question there's obviously a lot of demand for travel Hospitality Leisure but the question is can Airlines continue to raise prices we know there's still massive supply shortages in the Aerospace sector so the cost of doing business is rising we also know that lower wage workers are earning more money so a lot of the input costs for airlines are going up but if they can't raise prices anymore because as United and Southwest have mentioned they're ready to embark on a price War if they need to in other words they are ready to lower prices to compete with their competitors if they need to and their goal is to operate more efficiently well we'll see are they able to raise prices are they able to operate much more efficiently and how are those consumers doing with spending so that'll be on the 13th we'll get our first look at Delta Airlines it's actually probably one of my favorites uh I don't know probably United holds a candle that them but we'll see uh okay then American Airlines is the most indebted so something to keep in mind as well Alaska by the way least dead at least indebted I believe out of all of the airlines anyway then on Friday on the 14th we'll be getting JP Morgan City Wells Fargo and BlackRock all in the AM that is going to be a busy am that's all between about 5 55 a.m and about 6 50 a.m eastern time so the banking sector will be huge because we're actually going to get a glimpse at how much our credit standards actually tightening everybody keeps talking about how the banking crisis is going to lead credit standards to Titan and maybe some credit standards have already been tightening over the last six months as we sort of walk into a recessionary environment but NatWest was telling us last week that credit conditions aren't really tightening anymore than the path they were already on during the credit crunch now or or during the last six months I should say now there are some indicators we looked at these yesterday where we saw borrowing sort of fall during the couple weeks of the credit crisis or the banking crisis and then a big spike right afterwards and now people are wondering okay so is the credit crisis normalizing like did we have a quick little pause and then a rebound and is not West right that there really is no additional tightening or was that just people quickly withdrawing their credit lines down and potentially a uh credit crisis and a credit crunch is still ahead of us well that those banking catalysts will give us a massive amount of insight on Friday but again that comes after CPI so the favorite data that we want to look for CPI obviously is going to be coming out on the 12th now the 12th is a very big day because we have branded a complete coupon code around it so make sure you check out those links down below for all the programs and perspectiv whether it's investing in stocks building your income as an entrepreneur an employee you want to learn about llc's liability you want to learn about know how to best own real estate the best deals to get how to build your wealth with real estate it actually go zero to millionaire everything whether it's stocks businesses making YouTube videos being an agent there's a program for you check them out linked down below well I am a licensed financial advisor those videos are non-personalized Financial advice they are a pathway that you could take very much inspiration from uh which I'm very excited to share with everyone so then CPI so CPI also comes out on the 12th which is the day of the expiration of the coupon code and prices will be going up so CPI expectations just changed now this is actually interesting I was not expecting CPI numbers to change in terms of The Economist expectations going into the read so on Wednesday April 12th we have the CPI expectation of instead of 0.3 percent which was the expectation the last time we looked at the data that number has actually moved and on the month over month headline it is moved down to 0.2 two percent month over month now I was a little surprised by that that we we saw a shift down to 0.2 percent that is going to be great on a headline basis we'll be shifting down from 0.4 month over month to 0.2 0.2 annualized works out to about 2.4 percent which is fantastic uh absolutely great uh so I'm very happy that the that the survey is sitting at a median estimate of 0.2 uh there are 58 qualified estimates in uh from uh from from the Bloomberg analysis or rather 58 a qualified Economist putting together 38 estimates I should say so some of them bundle up uh you've got uh UBS TD Securities and Wells Fargo actually just UBS and TD coming in at point one percent most of these coming in at point two percent oh if I actually sort them there are a few more at point one there we go okay it looks like there are one two three four five estimating point one percent and then there are only four estimating 0.4 most of them sit around 0.2 or 0.3 percent and the average estimate is 0.24 if you really want to get to the nitty-gritty sometimes in the course member live streams people ask me they're like oh okay you can be the exact number so I'm like yes uh CPI that's month over month CPI um core month over month is expected to be a little bit hotter core that's going to remove the energy slump and energy price slump that we've seen and when you remove that out you're actually looking at a survey of 0.4 which is 4.8 annualized keep in mind after we saw a a oil production cut by OPEC Plus members we have seen oil prices rise but what's actually quite surprising is how little oil prices have really risen relative to what you would expect look at the chart on screen here which is branded with our beautiful overlay for the coupon code there we go take a look at this these are the this is the international blend of oil it is Brent crude that's to be not to be confused with WTI which is the Western blend and when you look at the six month chart here obviously you could see that during the banking crisis we had a big slump for oil demand but what you've seen is oil prices rise after the OPEC plus price production Cuts but folks look at this we can't even break resistance that we had before the banking crisis in mid-fab in late January in late uh December in early December we are not breaking out of that channel so OPEC plus is probably punching the air right now wondering why can't we break out well potentially part of the reason is or Futures markets are pricing in recessionary fears in the oil market and obviously if we Trend towards a recession the expectation is that we would have a few or should I say less oil demand that would be the expectation so continuing with CPI here CPI year over year has also just been reduced CPI year over year in the prior read it was six percent folks buckle up and maybe get your life Insurance within as little as five minutes by going to bet kevin.com life where you can Apple pay an Android pay for it CPI year over year has just been revised to 5.1 percent the high estimate is 5.4 the low is 5.1 the median estimate is 5.1 so you have a really big skew to the left side here which means you have a high bar chart on the left and then very very few estimates on the right side so people really convinced that this is going to come in at 5.1 remember the prior read here for headline was six percent we're going to see almost a one percentage point or an entire one percent 100 basis point plummet inflation almost 90 basis points that's incredible uh and a lot of that again because of energy prices because when you look at the core you're actually expecting to see core tick up slightly year over year you're going to move from a prior expectation or a prior read of 5.5 to about 5.6 so what is that going to Signal what's going to mean we're going to have to look at the granular data how are those core Services doing and those core services are going to be what we're really going to pay attention to now we want to talk about what the Federal Reserve and Nick T are up to as well and how this could affect the stock market but before we do that I quickly just want to look at and read off some of the core Services we're really going to be paying attention to and I think they'll be critical and remember those the catalysts from CarMax from Delta and from the banks in terms of what and even what they say in the earnings call are really going to help shape an understanding around this CPI report so I really think that's going to be uh important in a basis for what the Federal Reserve is expected to talk about in may now remember the May fed meeting is going to be based off this CPI report that's really important because the next May meeting occurs on May second and third too early to get another CPI report so whether we get that 25 BP hike or not it's going to be dependent on these catalysts likely this week keep in mind that right now the Futures Market is pricing in a 65.5 chance of a 25 basis point hike in may we are also pricing in a 64.7 percent chance of a pause in June now we're going to be looking specifically when it comes to CPI and obviously category number one are we continuing to see Goods disinflation very important number two have we started to see any rent deflation yet that is rent of shelter lodging away from home hotels rent of your primary residence via owner's equivalent rents Last Read was point seven percent that's eight point four percent annualized at the high we want to see that come down but the other thing that we'd like to see down are obviously airfares transportation services we'd also like to see other service is like haircuts phone services Legal Services postage Services Education Services photography Services Pet Services we'd like to see all of these normalize now pet is one of the largest sectors that still seems to have lingering pricing power or that is the lingering ability to raise prices in the face of higher costs pets and pet supplies are really still passing on those prices so that could come up in CPI as well now we expect that to wane as household formations for pets are flat at least according to Petco's earnings call household formations are flat at the start of the year for uh for for more people basically having pets and that could be an indication that that pricing power May in for pet stores but so far if you're looking at companies like Chewie it does look like these companies still have pricing power the question now is how long will that stay in fast now the question is what does this mean potentially for the stock market and the Federal Reserve well Nick T put together a pretty detailed uh report on how much Panic there wa usually the Federal Reserve decides how much to raise interest rates weeks before the actual fed meeting however in this last crisis the Federal Reserve decided just two days before the March 22nd fed fomc meeting whether or not to raise rates which they did by 25 basis points and the reason they waited so long is they waited for Swiss authorities to help solve the Credit Suisse disaster now if anybody's ever watched the Bourne series which is my favorite series ever I just watched the first half of it with Jack my seven-year-old yesterday we got to the car chase in Paris but anyway think about how exclusive Swiss banks are and how important Swiss banks are to the banking system the reason I bring up born identity is because of course Jason Bourne has to collect his resources from a Swiss bank in Zurich and so this this banking crisis was a huge blow to the the Swiss banking system but the FED actually heavily leaned on what was going to happen with the UBS bailout basically buyout along with the government bailout the Swiss National Bank basically guaranteeing the next nine billion dollars and actually I think UBS was willing to take up to nine billion dollars of losses and the Swiss National Bank was willing to take the next 15 billion in losses to orchestrate that deal because there's not enough time to underwrite the entire book of business for credit so he's anyway long and short of it the Fed was looking at that deal to decide whether to pause and they were seriously considering pausing because of the banking crisis in March now that was a risk because even Bullard who generally suggests we need to get to a higher rate as soon as possible suggested that if we paused we would have potentially signaled fear and usually the formal statement for the Federal Reserve is actually drafted uh up to a week before that is the decision could be made as much as two weeks before the statement is drafted a week before but Powell didn't want to rewrite the statement so waited until literally the last minute to decide to go with a 25 basis point Hike The Economist had a great piece yesterday talking about how the banking turmoil has potentially been ignored by the stock market and I think the stock market cares actually more about what we're going to get in numbers this week and I want to talk to you about good news is bad news versus bad news is bad news because the economist talks about it as well the economist cites that investors have dumped stocks when bankings when banks have failed before they go into history and say look go back to Continental Illinois that was a bank that failed in 1984 the FED had to rescue it and the Dow dropped six and a half percent because of Bank in Illinois failed stocks slid 10 percent when Lehman Brothers crashed in 2008 it's obviously substantially more after that and in September of 2029 between September of 2029 sorry 1929 and July 1932 during the Great Depression banking failures LED stocks to fall 89 so banking crisis is a massive deal when it comes to the stock market especially now with deposits fleeing to money market funds but what's actually remarkable is our stock market's kind of like eh whatever what did our stock market do the S P 500 returned four percent during the banking crisis European stocks were up three percent during the banking crisis the NASDAQ was up seven percent during the banking crisis led by companies like Microsoft and Apple retail trading flows have been elevated since 2021 and even though retail plowed money into the market about 17 billion dollars in the first two weeks of February they actually plowed the lowest amount of money into the market during the two weeks of the banking crisis the lowest amount since late 2020 just nine billion dollars of retail inflows during the banking crisis so retail was actually nervous about the banking crisis you know the stock market actually went up during the banking crisis suggesting that some institutional investors actually saw the banking crisis as an opportunity to finally Buy in now that's interesting because after all just 20 stocks have led 90 percent of the S P 500 surge year to date Mada Apple Nvidia Tesla and the likes they have led the vast majority of the surge of the s p and this is something that I've been talking about as well is that this is the kind of Market where you don't want to be exposed to all of the Staples that are going to get sandbagged in an earnings recession you want to be exposed to PP pricing power stocks that's what you want and I encourage you to look up pricing power stocks I teach price about pricing power stocks just go to meet kevin.com you can learn about not only my courses on building your wealth my affiliate links my uh actively managed ETF all of the information is at meet kevin.com so just go there and learn more but anyway the question now is is are people being blind to a potential recession I mean if historically stocks go down in a banking crisis why in this banking crisis did they not go down now that is a question that I'd like to answer right after I just shout out crypto life or who just donated 50 saying that today is their 40th birth birthday sending you some love that's awesome crypto life or hey man send us an email kevin.com good for you man all right so now what and by the way thank you to all those of you who emailed me yesterday about the um gold-backed uh uh digital currency expect some email replies today okay so now we've got to ask ourselves is bad news good news right initially when we went into the cycle we wanted to see weak data weak manufacturing data weak Services data because it would suggest that inflation is no longer a problem well this inflation report may tell us as a catalyst that inflation is no longer a problem the real problem is actually recession and how deep is the recession going to go are we going to go negative GDP by Q3 Q4 or is this all going to be a funny joke and everybody's going to be comparing or waiting for a recession and the recession is never going to come we don't know we have no idea but the CPI report will be a big Catalyst I believe to letting us know a is inflation going to prove to be transitory or not if we end up having any kind of re-ex here are risk factors a re-acceleration in demand inflation and a re-acceleration in uh in services or housing inflation would be absolutely devastating Now look for example at expectations related to CPI going forward now this is a phenomenal well actually these are these are not CPI directly inflation expectations but I want to show you this this is from the Federal Reserve the St Louis bank and the Federal Reserve that's phenomenal I suppose before I show you this let me just quickly finish the thought so generally bad news has been deemed good news but if inflation proves to be transitory is it possible that bad news is actually good news or is it possible that bad news is actually just straight up bad news and the answer is yes bad news could be straight up bad news why could bad news be bad news because inflation goes away and then we've proven to have over tightened well then we got big problems because if we've proven to have over tightened now now we've got oopsy-doopsies because now we go into a deep recession potentially now again I have aligned the expiration of the coupon code with a CPI Wednesdays so the 12th so make sure you get in remember you could use buy now pay later and you get a price guarantee well going forward for Life the price is guaranteed will never be lower or you get a price adjustment which is a phenomenal opportunity for you no excuse not to join and you get all those custom course member live streams as well as all the lectures and perspectives on building your wealth and the research that I do I mean everything you learn everything you can ask any question you want so take a look at this this is an H District businesses report uh which basically they they survey eight different districts and they do a report about persistent inflationary pressures here and listen to this they surveyed uh CFOs uh in in a CFO survey and then they looked at BLS statistics for Consumer prices and producer prices they looked at forecasts and what actually happened and what I want you to see is where like who was basically most wrong so in your CFO survey in 2022 CFO stock prices would rise 4.2 percent they actually Rose 8.4 in the eyes of CFOs and companies that were interviewed that's different because it's not a survey of all prices which you get you know via the CPI or PPI baskets so that's why there's difference here but the point is CFOs were wrong about inflation by a factor of two it's you know look at this they were expecting inflation prices to go up 4.2 percent prices actually went up an additional 4.6 percent at eight six that shows you that CFOs were caught flat-footed in the face of inflation they were not expecting this much inflation from a consumer price point of view via the Bureau of Labor Statistics we were expecting 4.4 we actually got 6.4 in consumer prices PPI we were expecting five nine we got eight seven now what I like to look at though is the forecast for 2023 and you can see this softening in 2023 you actually see forecasts of just 4.8 percent uh for the total survey CFOs are now catching up CFOs actually think inflation might actually be more persistent but consumer and producer prices actually suggest that inflation will be lower so CFOs have historically been wrong they've been very wrong by a factor of two over here now CFOs are projecting higher inflation in 2023 but is it possible that they're wrong again at this time to the to you know they're overestimating inflation entirely possible so I believe to sort of sum this Catalyst segment up I believe the big thing that we want to pay attention to here is a combination of everything that happens this week I don't think we can narrow this down to one Catalyst this week I think this week you want to write down on a Post-It note or something you want to write down a CPI the 12th with coupon code expiring prices going up then you want to look at Carmax on the 11th the day before sorry that's slightly out of order then you want to make sure you pay attention to Delta earnings and what happens with the banks at the end of the week because think about it all of that together is going to give you a view of is the CPI CPI CPI CPI if CarMax is Raising prices a lot and uh and the airlines are raising prices and credit is fully available right now Duke can be keep in mind and I didn't talk about this one this one's a little bit less you know popular but we are also the very next day on Thursday we're going to get PPI producer price really quick quickly I'll go into this one quickly it's less popular but the very next day 5 30 a.m We Get PPI month over month expected to be zero uh the month over month core is expected to be 0.3 as well as month over month Core X trade 0.3 but year over year is expected to plummet we could see year-over-year headline PBI go from 4.6 percent to three and PPI core go from 4.4 to three and a half and then X trade as well 4.4 to four so a big plummet there in PPI expected so you've got a very busy week and I think after this week we'll be able to really nail down all right are we going to get 25 BPS or not remember the expectation right now is that we're looking at a 65 chance of 25 BP in uh in the uh on the May 2nd and third meeting of the Federal Reserve that's 65.5 percent to be exact at 65.7 percent of a pause in June with of course rate Cuts being priced in still towards the end of the year the only way we're really going to get right Cuts towards the end of the year in my opinion is actually if we end up having a blowout low report on the CPI and PPI numbers which we may get and then everything will turn from fighting inflation to because inflation will then have proven to be transitory to fighting over session rates by the way are expected oh this is a crazy chart my gosh this is a disaster so rates are expected to pause in June but if I look The First Cut is already being priced in for July with oh my Lord what by January 31st we are now pricing in almost two and a half percent in rate cuts that is an insane curve holy crap um oh my Lord okay let me show you this because it's it's actually almost slightly hard to believe how uh this just the shape of this curve this is insane now that is a little risky as well because if the market is pricing in this kind of curve it ends up being wrong uh well that's going to be a little bit of an oopsy-doopsie eh and we're gonna have to do a little bit of price adjusting and remember that's how the market somewhat works too is the market uh can rise based on expectations of rate Cuts maybe that's why we saw those uh those those uh in the stock market rise because now we're thinking okay the fed's certainly going to cut but holy smokes look at this particular chart that I'm going to show on screen right here look at those cuts my goodness now the way to read this is basically you look at right here is your Peak right here is your pause here is your first cut so this is about five and a quarter percent five to five and a quarter percent right here would be the range uh and then you get your first cut over here another cut another cut many Cuts look at this huge cuts coming towards the end of the year followed by some smaller Cuts over here I mean the cut over here looks like a one and a half percent basis point cut I mean let's let's draw that really quick you're going from about negative one and a quarter here to about negative two and a half that's a 125 basis point cut that is being priced in for uh December followed by uh you know and that's just that bar difference right there the cumulative would be somewhere around it two and a half to almost three percent cut uh by uh you know people like two points two and a half two point seven five two and a half to 2.75 price stem by uh by the end of January uh that'd be uh around my birthday time oh my gosh wow so if we don't get those cuts I think the market might be a little sad in fact that's exactly what TD or TS Lombard mentioned they said If the Fed does not start cutting we're going to have a big oopsie goopsy because the Market's going to go oh damn it in fact it's over tightening and they're not even realizing it holy hell please get youve yes you have the debt ceiling crisis looming as well but that my friend is for another segment thank you very much for watching this segment it was very detailed and hopefully very insightful
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