저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 하이퍼인플레이션은 미국 등 주요국에서 단기간 내 가능성이 낮지만, 인플레이션과 금리 상승은 이어질 가능성이 크고 다음 경기침체는 더 심각할 것이라는 견해. 인플레이션 전망: 전 세계 주요국이 과도하게 통화를 찍어내고 있으며, 과거 양적완화 때와 달리 이번에는 물가 상승이 나타날 가능성이 크다고 봄. 정부는 인플레이션을 축소 발표하는 경향이 있음. 하이퍼인플레이션 여부: 미국과 대부분 국가에서는 수개월~수년 내 하이퍼인플레이션 가능성이 낮다고 봄. 다만 베네수엘라, 짐바브웨 등 일부 국가에서 발생했고 역사적으로 재발 가능하므로 배제하면 안 된다고 언급. 금리 전망: 미국 금리는 40년간 하락했으나 이제 상승 전환해 장기간 더 오를 것으로 전망. 인플레이션과 금리는 함께 움직이는 경향이 있음. 연준은 금리를 소폭 올리며 경기 강세를 강조하겠지만, 결국 시장이 금리를 통제하며 금리가 계속 올라갈 것이라고 봄. 경기침체 리스크: 부채가 급증(중국 포함)해 금리 상승이 큰 문제를 일으킬 수 있으며, 다음 경기침체는 본인 생애 최악일 것이라고 경고. 중앙은행과 시장: 중앙은행이 가격을 인위적으로 통제하려 해도 결국 시장이 이를 뒤집는 경우가 많으며, 중앙은행에 베팅하면 돈을 벌 가능성이 높다고 언급. MMT(현대통화이론): 적자를 채권 발행이나 증세 없이 돈을 찍어 메우는 이론으로 소개하며, 단기적으로는 괜찮아 보이지만 결국 화폐 가치 하락과 인플레이션을 낳는다고 비판. 출연자 전망 요약: 인플레이션 지속과 금리 상승, 이후 심각한 침체를 예상하나 하이퍼인플레이션은 단기 가능성 낮음.
다듬은 글
it's not just the United States that's creating currency like crazy it's an awful lot of world Nations so what are your thoughts within inflation Outlook is that something sustainable or is that just more of a short-term phenomenon or doesn't it even exist at all as you well point out every country in nearly every country in the world is doing it at an unprecedented level in Japan head of the bank of Japan says he will print unlimited that's his word unlimited amount of money everybody is doing it and historically that has eventually led to inflation I mean I don't know if you go shopping Keith or not maybe your butler does your shopping but rest of us know that prices are going up no matter what it is for Education groceries restaurants entertainment prices are going up again now U.S government says don't worry it's not going to last if you believe them that things are different this time they're gigantic money printing does not lead to inflation then you shouldn't listen to me but I expect more inflation now interestingly the term quantitative easing is something that was introduced to a lot of people's economic particular back about 12 years ago coming off the global financial crisis a lot of people predicted that all that currency creation was going to create consumer inflation but it really didn't so do you think it'll really be any different this time and if so why well it did create some inflation governments have a tendency and an incentive to lie about inflation right for obvious reasons in the U.S for instance many expenses are tied to the rate of inflation so if the government can say inflation is down they don't have to pay as much as I say maybe you don't go shopping or didn't anyway inflation did come back and a lot of it went into financial markets around the world bonds with the highest level in in recorded history stocks are booming in the U.S in most parts of the world so with the money did go somewhere some of it went into price increases now more of it's going into price increases I would suspect we're going to see more inflation but who knows that by the way it doesn't go up every month when you have inflation it doesn't go up every week but but over a period of years you see price increases serious price increases I've heard some people even speculate with hyperinflation I think that's a bit extreme most people's definition of hyperinflation is like with something with what's happened in Venezuela recently where you can have hundreds of percent inflation per month not per year but per month we haven't had substantial and prolonged deflation since the 1930s after the Great Depression so a lot of people continue to think just to draw a line try the trajectory of where inflation's been and continue to say inflation went out over deflation but inflation will stay relatively low relatively muted what are your thoughts there I don't see hyperinflation certainly not in the U.S or in most countries in the next few weeks few months maybe even a few years but that does not mean that hyperinflation cannot come back it always has in some countries and it probably right now if you go to Zimbabwe or Runners right up or some places they're having hyperinflation so again can happen probably not in the U.S probably not in most countries but don't think it cannot happen don't say it's so different this time that we cannot have serious inflation even if it goes back to what it was in the 70s that hurts a lot of people and when you were with us here last time you predicted that interest rates were going to go higher but I think you were talking about the long term when you were giving us that Outlook and of course inflation and interest rates are positively correlated is that all congruent with your outlook higher interest rates and higher inflation in conjunction with each other well that's usually what happens when you have higher inflation people demand higher interest rates in order to use their money so it's probably going to happen again yes I would expect that and you you are correct in what you said what I was talking about and what I'm talking about now is you know interest rates went down in the U.S for 40 years when they turn around they got to go up and they're going to go higher for a considerable period of time is the Fed really between a rock and a hard place is that going to cause a lot of problems in the economy because so many people have so much debt that could be unsustainable for everyone from consumers to municipalities to Federal governments to pay higher interest rates on their debt Keith you are exactly right but what will happen is the the fed the central bank will raise interest rates a little bit they will tell us that it's good it's a sign of a strong economy and that we should be pleased but eventually the Market's going to take over and take control away from the Federal Reserve and the market will raise interest rates higher and higher because the Market's going to say listen guys we know what's going on we've seen this movie before we know how it ends and the market will take interest rates away from the FED take control away from the VIP and that's when the problems get very serious that's when we have a recession again but Keith I want to remind you we've had recession since the beginning of time all over the world and we will again even if some politicians say don't worry never again will we have a recession they've got ivy league educations but don't believe them don't believe them I assure you we will have recessions again and Keith the next one is going to be the worst in my lifetime and I say that not as an alarmist but in 2008 we had a serious problem because of too much debt since 2008 Keith the debt has skyrocketed everywhere even China which had virtually no debt 20 years ago now has lots of debt and will have bankruptcies so don't think it's not coming back and don't think it's not going to affect a lot of people now let's listen to you closely Jim maybe I'm taking you too literally did you say that the market could be the ones that set the rate in the future rather than the FED being the one artificially setting these rates that I understand you correctly tell us about that the FED will be a participant the FED will be a huge participant and perhaps the most important but yes I'm saying to you did central banks do have a lot of power but at times in history the market has taken it away central banks around the world try to fix currency prices you know they say that the pound sterling is worth this the euro is worth this and yet it's worth it but it's sometimes the market will say because central banks again try to fix prices they try to protect their jobs and they try to protect the politician but but there always has come a time when the market says no no no that is not what the Euro's worth the euro is worth this or this or whatever it is and then they take control away from the central banks I have learned that if you bet against the central banks especially when they're absurd you're probably going to make money and the same happens with interest rates listen don't think I don't know that central banks are gigantically important and Powerful but I also know that the market has more money than the Federal Reserve now this is a paradigm shift for a lot of people Jim including me to think about the fact that the interest rate setting policy could be taken out of the hands or largely out of the hands of the fed and controlled by the free market a lot of capitalists will tell you that government intervention in the free market stifles capitalism when you do things like fix wages you get higher unemployment or when you do things like you impose rent control pretty soon you get dilapidated neighborhoods because for example no landlords having any incentive to improve property because they won't get any more rent is that similar to the FED controlling the interest rate rather than the free market controlling what prevailing interest rates should be Keith you have learned your lessons well you have observed and understood and seen what's happening yes that's the way the world has always worked maybe now the Federal Reserve has power that even I don't understand it we don't understand you know there is a theory around called mmt more money today and that means so this will never be a problem again I hope so I hope so but for a few hundred years a thousand years we've always had problems periodically I suspect we will have them again and mmt may come along and they may print staggering amounts of money but in the end that's going to make it worse that's going to make the value of money go down a lot that's a good play on words of course mmt is modern monetary Theory and you you just called it more money today so why don't I just play Devil's Advocate what's wrong with more money today why not just pave over the world with money won't solve all of our problems that's what they say and it's wonderful people always come up with theories when their things are bad it was a guy named Marx who came up with a beautiful theme it sounded wonderful and a lot of people tried it when things got bad I mean nobody wants to be a Marxist anymore because we know it doesn't really work and people are going to try mmt when things get bad and it will look okay for a while just keep Printing and everybody was at pre-muddy this is wonderful this is good news but and maybe it is different this time Keith but most things always when you have too much of it the value goes down and that with money there's a recipe for inflation tell us more about mmt modern monetary Theory we have not talked about it on this show at all before what's the premise there the premise is that you don't really have to worry about balancing the budget by selling bonds or raising taxes the premise is that if you need more money that you print money and as long as you do it without abandon you know with some kind of sense of response possibility everything will be fine you don't have to raise a lot of debt you just print what you need I mean it's magic It's Magic It's Magic Keith everybody's going to love everybody that Hears A Doodle hears it now does love it reality it'll have to set in someday at least reality always has that in in the past
Comments 0