저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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미국 부채가 35조 달러로 누적되고 연간 이자만 약 1조 달러에 달해 구조적으로 상환 불가능하다고 주장. 자산가격이 사상 최고치 부근이라 붕괴 전조로 보며, 결국 디폴트나 대규모 통화발행 중 하나로 끝날 것이라고 봄. 정부가 긴축 대신 통화를 찍어 시간을 벌 것이며, 향후 5년간 고금리·고인플레가 지속될 것으로 전망. 시장이 정부 발표를 불신하게 되면 재앙적 상황이 온다는 논지.
다듬은 글
unfortunately I've been around long enough to know that when things get this good when everybody's having so much fun we're getting closer to the end asset prices of seemingly everything are near their all-time highs maybe even their inflation adjusted all-time highs in some cases what are your thoughts with asset price levels oh Keith it very proceptive of you and insightful yes this is one of the few times in world history that I know about where nearly everything is making new high I think China is probably the only country that's not making new high but nearly everything else is now it's wonderful it's great a lot of people having a lot of fun but unfortunately I've been around long enough to know that when things get this good when everybody's having so much fun we're getting closer to the end I am not selling short or anything yet but I see the signs that this is going to come to an end as it always does and it's going to be a mess and the reason is it's going to be a big mess this time you remember what happened in 2008 because of too much debt GE since 2009 the debt everywhere has skyrocketed I mean even China has a lot of debt now China bailed us out before but everybody has a lot of debt now well maybe not North Korea but everybody else does and that sure includes us I mean we have these asset prices at alltime highs yet here we are still the largest adoration in the history of the world in the United States now at 35 trillion and we're spending dollars on others Wars something that we couldn't say when you and I talked a few years ago the biggest line item of our national budget anymore is about $1 trillion in annual interest payments alone and you know Jim we're really on this course now where soon the US's annual tax receipts won't even cover the interest payments on our debt and we may have to borrow just to pay the interest so where do we reach the breaking point here with this world in debt led by the United States well you make some very good points unfortunately I wish you didn't I wish you couldn't make those points but right it's simple arithmetic just look at the numbers and the numbers you site are just the what they admit what they there's a lot of off-balance sheet debt that they don't even talk about if you try to get out of pencil and a piece of paper you will realize that the America can never pay this debt never countries that have gotten into this situation in the past have had big problems now it's a good time to be an old American I don't have to worry about all this for too many years but I have young children oh my gosh the problems that their country is going to face and their lifetime how staggering you look back at previous countries that have done this kind of thing I mean in in the 19 100 years ago Britain was the richest most powerful country in the world 50 years later it was bankrupt IMF had to fly to London and pay their bills it wasn't fun it was terrible what Britain went through but other countries have done the same thing so maybe we don't like what I'm saying or what's happening but just read the history and you we'll see how it winds up I certainly don't like it but I have to deal with facts if I don't deal with facts I'll go bankrupt too which I don't want to do yeah sometimes let's Laugh to Keep from Crying right when you talk about how certain government figures are just what the government is willing to admit to I think that's the right lens to look through when you look at any government figures well at least that's the part that they're willing to admit to it's interesting that they're willing to admit to 9% inflation like we peaked at two years ago but when you talk about the future and this huge debt load and children or grandchildren could austerity be part of it something that's very politically unpopular but if we lived in an austere State wouldn't that really be sort of like the downfall of the American Empire at that point well that's what happened to the British as I said 100 years ago they were the richest most powerful country in the world there was no number two then if years later completely bankrupt I happened to be in England during part of that time and it was a mess was wretched so I don't like saying any of this but I have to deal with the reality and the numbers you site or what they admit you know the numbers are much worse I don't know if anybody in Washington really knows I don't even know if they care enough to check to see how bad things are CU every time someone from Washington a politician or a bureau says something they say don't worry everything's okay we have it Janet Yellen who's the Secretary of the Treasury a year or two ago said don't worry we have everything under control reassuring isn't it not really oh my gosh he's got a couple of fancy ivy league degrees but she still says don't worry it's okay well I worry I maybe I I'm probably not as smart as she is but I worry well it's interesting that you bring up the fact about the things that we don't know and these numbers these debt levels and even the deficit gets so big we're just throwing around this word trillion anymore for some perspective I happen to know that a trillion seconds is 31,700 years in order to help put this into perspective that's just about as far back as when the PLS of Europe were being roamed by Neanderthals that's 1 trillion seconds ago and again we are $35 trillion in debt and we have a deficit of at least $1 trillion the annual thing well I'm glad you're putting some perspective on this but I don't need it I know it's a staggering whatever number you want to look at whether it's the one they report or the one that's they H hard whatever it is I know that America has a gigantic problem that is going to end up like every other country that's done this sort of thing it's going to end up badly America's going to lose its status not this month don't worry July is okay but no I can read I can add I can subtract I know how it's going to wind up it's not good for Young Americans Jim when I look at history and I think about sort of the powers that be and and how they create and debase the currency and how those problems percolate into so many parts of the society you know I think of the United States is basically they have a monopoly on creating currency and I just wonder if that's part of the problem I mean lenar builds houses but they have competition from KB Homes John Deere makes tractors and they have competition from New Holland hindes makes ketchup and they have competition from hunts see when there's competition there's sort of this incentive to produce quality and provide others with value but since the US has no substantial competition to the dollar I wonder if we can think of this as a de facto Monopoly from its delution of the purchasing power of the dollar it's quality is suffering because the dollar doesn't have any substantial competition so I guess what I'm leading up to what I'm getting at is we think about currency creation as a de facto us Monopoly I mean does the government have to be the exclusive money printer where all this just ends up in the debt column here well you'll raise some very good points um but back to the first main point the main point is you can add there is no way that America can ever pay these debts except by default which is one horrible way or by printing gigantic amounts of money which is another horrible way this is not the first time countries have done this but if you just go back and look it has never ended well never ended well yes England is still there but nobody thinks about England the way they did a 100 years ago and nobody in England lives like they did a 100 years ago I don't know what's going to happen to the US except I know it's not going to end well because I can add and you can add and subtract I wish we could subtract there's nothing to subtract cuz the debt just keeps highing and higher and higher now Jim I don't know if you remember this but the first time you were with us it was January of 2019 that was more than 5 years ago and at that time you said interest rates are going to go much much much higher that was your direct quote three muches and you said that it's going to ruin a lot of people and here we are with a lot of people ruined in the commercial real estate world in the apartments indication world and so on so if you continue to think there's going to be more currency creation to make it easier to pay back our debt does that mean you believe that higher interest rates and higher inflation are going to be a persistent condition say just till the end of this decade which is about another five years what do you think about inflation and interest rates for these next 5 years well I know that in Washington they will print money that's all they know they want to keep their jobs he they don't care about you they don't care about any of us they care about keeping their job and they will do whatever they have to to keep their job the easy way now the proper way of course is to buckle down and start doing something about the horrendous situation we're in they don't care they think they'll be gone by the time those times come if they're ever coming and they will say but we're America we cannot have problems like that well that's what what the British said too Once Upon a Time and as I say there was no number two to the British they were that powerful they were that much on top it's not I don't like saying it I don't like thinking it I don't like living with it but I do hope I can prepare so that I don't go down the tubes like some other people will but I mean just do the arithmetic it's very simple the numbers just cannot work I didn't say the numbers do not work I said they canot not work because the situation is that dire they can hold it all for a while by printing money great for them not for you and me certainly not for our children yeah I think that's all they're going to keep doing that's the most expedient way to do it to keep printing any politician that proposes austerity and you having soup for breakfast lunch and dinner is not very likely to get reelected so does that mean in the next 5 years you foresee historically elevated interest rates and inflation which is basically where we actually still are now well of course I do I mean there's the market the problem is right now the central banks still think they're in control and they pretty much are but there will come a time and there always has in history when the market says wait a minute we know you're lying we know this cannot work and then when the market takes over and the Market starts setting interest rates and other conditions that's called disaster that's a real real serious problem the market will know how bad things are and the treasury secretary can sit there and say all day long don't worry don't worry we have it under control and Democrats will say thanks but we know better you can watch this one next
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