저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 농업 관련 투자와 원자재(상품) 투자는 장기적으로 유망하며, 가상화폐는 정부 통제 아래 있는 디지털 화폐로 대체될 가능성이 높다는 견해. 농업 투자: 미국 농민 평균 연령 58세, 일본 66세로 농업 인력이 고령화·감소 중이며, 이 구조적 문제로 농지와 농업 관련 부동산 가격이 장기적으로 오를 가능성이 크다고 봄. 인구 증가와 경작지 감소로 수요는 늘고 공급은 줄어드는 기본 수급 구조가 근거. 원자재 투자: 인플레이션 시 곡물·면화·구리·휘발유 등 가격이 오르므로 상품 ETF(밀, 옥수수, 면화 등)로 인플레이션 수혜를 볼 수 있다고 설명. 상품 투자가 두려울 필요는 없다는 입장. 가상화폐: 미래의 돈은 컴퓨터상의 디지털 화폐가 되겠지만 정부 발행 화폐일 것이라고 주장. 정부는 독점권을 잃지 않으려 하므로 대체 화폐가 성장하면 규제할 것이며, 비트코인 등은 트레이딩 수단으로는 괜찮지만 인플레이션 헤지로 확신하기는 어렵다고 봄. 수천 개 코인이 사라졌고 해킹·도난 사례도 있음. 정부가 불법화하면 사용이 어려워지며 전기·인터넷 차단 같은 방법도 가능하다고 언급. 청년 조언: 세계 지리 지식과 외국어(제2외국어) 습득, 해외 거주 고려 등 세계에 대한 이해를 넓히라고 권함. 어려운 시기가 올 것이므로 지식을 쌓고 대비하면 위기에서도 부를 얻을 수 있다고 강조. 리스크: 농업·원자재는 수요·공급과 정책 변수에 따라 변동 가능. 가상화폐는 사기·소멸·정부 규제 리스크가 큼. 전망: 농업 및 원자재 장기 상승 전망, 가상화폐는 회의적 관점.
다듬은 글
I know you've had a lot of affinity for agricultural real estate in the recent past do you still hold that and what are your thoughts about agricultural real estate investing today I'm very optimistic about agricultural agriculture has been a disaster for 30 or 40 years the average age of farmers in America is 58.
Japan is 66. Keith nobody more people in America study public relations and study agriculture agriculture is a nightmare that is changing now in my view for various reasons partly because we're running out of farmers all over the world not just in in the United States and that's going to lead to better jobs either we're not going to have clothes anymore and we're not going to eat food anymore or agriculture is going to get better long term it's great to invest in mandatory needs people need to live somewhere with housing people need to eat food with agriculture what's a good way to play agriculture if you want to invest in something agriculture what's your favorite way in order to be a profiteer from that as far as an investment vehicle Jim I said before Keith maybe you should buy property in the midwest or in the agricultural area if you're in Canada you know the agricultural areas everywhere in the world because farmers are going to be better off and so prices in those areas are going to go higher whether it's for houses or farmland or whatever that's what you should be looking at that's one way to play by definition inflation means higher prices for cotton for corn for copper for gasoline for everything like that so you can participate by buying Commodities Commodities scare a lot of people but there's no reason to be scared they're now their ETFs that you can buy come out is very easily if you own agricultural ETFs and the prices of Wheat and corn and cotton go higher you're going to say wow this is fun I'm making a lot of money from inflation I'm making money from inflation from a fundamental Supply demand standpoint agriculture can make a lot of sense a rapidly increasing population at least worldwide still for the next 75 or 80 years while at the same time the amount of arable land is going down so you talk about demand up and supply Down they're just some of those basic fundamentals within Agriculture and then you have to get in where you fit in with your preferred crop type or Nation you're going to invest in and so on you've learned your lessons well you know you and I talked about inflation earlier in the chat here one way people like to hedge against inflation is increasingly with the cryptocurrency like Bitcoin where there is a finite supply of 21 million Bitcoins what are your thoughts and is cryptocurrency like Bitcoin a legitimate way to hedge oneself against inflation well first of all all money is going to be on the computer Keith there's no question it already is in China you can't take a taxi in China with money you have to have your money on your computer it just doesn't work otherwise we've had hundreds of crypto cards that already disappear and go to zero more will go to zero two you can't we have thousands of them now maybe they're all going to work it usually doesn't work the world usually doesn't work that way so money is going to be on the computer but in my view it's going to be government money when the U.S money is on the phone on the computer I don't think the us is going to say okay this is money now but if you want to use their money you can use their money that's not the way governments think or you a politicians bureaucrats don't like to lose control they'd like to keep their Monopoly and I suspect that that will happen again so if these currencies any other become viable as currency I suspect the governments will step in they always have we'll see but Keith Keith I want to say if you're good at trading and these are nothing wrong with these as trading Vehicles right now and if you're good at trading do it but if you think you're going to have the new US dollar I suspect you're not there will be a new US Dollar on the computer but it's going to be theirs I would love for there to be Alternatives but that's not the way governments think you bring up a good point that's actually lost on a lot of people I'm talking about Bitcoin which is I'll call it the most successful in well-known cryptocurrency yeah how many thousands of cryptocurrencies are out there that died that went to zero that don't even exist anymore and that people lost money on no one's talking about that because they don't exist anymore that's exactly right and many even Bitcoins have been stolen from from people's wallets etc etc it may well happen Keith I'm skeptical I would prefer to have what governments approve of his money right now because if they make it illegal I certainly am not going to use the alternative currencies I'd rather be poor and out of jail than rich and in jail some wonder if cryptocurrency can really be shut down maybe this is somewhat analogous to an executive order 6102 from about 90 years ago when physical possession of gold and silver was made illegal by the United States government and confiscated I mean you could still own it but it just wasn't legal to own it I mean can cryptocurrency be shut down is is that realistic well the crypto people say it's not realistic that they can outsmart the government they also said it was Anonymous but as you know it lasts two or three days that they have found that there was a big Heist recently where they closed the pipeline they demanded money from a pipeline they got it they were paid in crypto as well the government tracked them down has gotten it back now so the idea that these are that everything is anonymous and can be shielded from the government is being proven wrong more and more every day so it can happen that the government can do a lot of things I mean I don't particularly like this at all not at all Keith but government do have that power can they shut it down if they make it illegal most people are me and others will not use it anymore recently in Myanmar for instance they just close the internet without the internet you don't have cryptocurrency but without electricity you don't have cryptocurrency you can go down to the shop and say look my money is on my computer but my computer is inaccessible this guy's going to say I know you need bread and I would love to give you some bread and wheat I mean and everything and some beans you've got to give me money I'm sorry your computer's down I'm sorry electricity is down Etc so the government can do all sorts of things whether we like it or not and I don't like it but facts are facts Jim you've had a lot of wisdom you've published so many impactful books over the years you've traveled to so many nations so you know I'd really like to know what do you think that a young person should know today well that has to do with investing or personal development or anything else maybe something that that Young Person's not thinking about what should they be thinking about or investing their time in everybody should invest their time now especially in knowing about the world preferably a second language I grew up in the United States where nobody cared if you didn't speak English but in the next 50 years next hundred years it's going to be important to know a second language well and it's going to be very important to know about the world you know most people when I was a kid didn't know where China was didn't care didn't need to know but that's 80 years ago that's 100 years ago that that world is gone so I would suspect everybody I urge everybody to learn about the world as much as you can you know I recently ran into a woman from China who didn't know that Beijing was the capital of China so there's a lot of ignorance out there and if you don't know about the world in the next 50 years you're not going to have an advantage you're certainly going to be at a disadvantage so I would learn as much as you can about the world outside of your own country I would learn about possibly residing living outside your own country and I would certainly try to learn another language if you can you're preaching to the choir one of my degrees is in geography so I often think spatially and yeah you're right Jim especially here in the United States I'm sure it's only a minority of people that could adequately point to Brazil on a map or Spain or Myanmar or South Africa or any of those sorts of places and it's increasingly relevant in an increasingly globalized world most Americans cannot find the Pacific Ocean they say who cares where the Pacific Ocean is well they're going to learn they're going to learn my advice to everybody is to watch get rich listen to get rich because difficult times are coming you need to get knowledge and once you get knowledge you'll get worried and once you get word you'll do something you'll start being prepared and the people who are ready will come through difficult times in sparkling colors many people got rich in the depression in the 30s most didn't most lost a lot but if you know what you're doing and you're prepared you will come through the next very bad times with flying colors and you'll be rich so get ready do your homework
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