저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프 발언의 잦은 번복(이란 전쟁 종료 vs 지속, 호르무즈 확보 vs 포기, 지상군 불투입 vs 해병대 추가 파견)을 정리하며 시장 혼란을 지적. 10년물 국채금리가 4.4%에 근접하고 1년 기대인플레이션이 급등(약 5.2%)해 중앙은행 구제 기대가 약해지고 금리인상 가격 반영 우려. 유가는 Brent 약 107→112로 상승. 결론적으로 채권시장을 현재 가장 신뢰할 신호로 제시.
다듬은 글
The market was a complete disaster today, and a lot of this has to do with Donald Trump's flip-flopping. It gives me freaking vertigo to try to put all of this together, which I'm going to do in this video and break down why it seems like all of a sudden the war is over and we're winning to we're not done yet.
We're sending troops. We're sending more troops to the next day. We're not going to send troops and then the very next day actually we're sending troops. It is maybe part of the whole chaos theory of unpredictability, but let's just put it this way. On one hand, the market does not like rates going up.
We know that and yields are skyrocketing. Just today, we had the 10-year Treasury run up 10.3 basis points. We're almost at 4.4%. This morning's Alpha report warned that if this didn't go down from 4.34, we'd be selling off throughout the day today and it was not an updated play and that's exactly what ended up happening.
If you look at oil, we actually ran up from about 107 this morning to about 112 on Brent. And this is despite the fact that Donald Trump right as the market was closing tried to say that we're thinking about winding down operations. Yet, we still have more troops in route and Iran just launched two ballistic missiles at our Diego Garcia base.
Neither of them hit, but it certainly doesn't sound like things are de-escalating. Anyway, here is the day for you. We're basically straight down all day long. We almost made it straight down to the 57724 line until recovering a little bit here in the after hours. The after hours recovery only coming because Donald Trump was once again flip-flopping.
So, let's go through a little bit of this flip-flopping. So, just to give you a summary of what's going on. Remember last summer mid Operation Midnight Hammer? Trump said that Iran should make a deal quote before there is nothing left. That was on June 13th, 2015. He literally wrote, "Just do it before it is too late." And this is this implication that this 12-day war back then was just going to finish everything once and for all and we'd be done.
Of course then just 8 months later on February 28th, Donald Trump called for regime change and he argued that the Iranian people should quote take over the governance of their country, that it will be theirs and this will probably be your only chance for generations. Which is again interesting because we went from last summer, this is it, to now we're going to help institute regime change.
Then obviously on 28th we also instituted major combat operations when we struck and killed the supreme leader along with thousands of other targets. The direct quote from Donald Trump was quote, "We're going to destroy their missiles and raise their missile industry to the ground. We are going to annihilate their enemy." Which in fairness has been done.
Which then makes you wonder, okay is is is it over? Are we done? Few days later on March 2nd, Donald Trump per Reuters said that the initial project was going to last about 4 to 5 weeks. Which is a lot longer than just going for missiles in the navy. Then he ended up saying that the war could take longer and that we could end up fighting the war forever.
In fact the direct quote was quote, "We're already substantially ahead of our time projections but whatever time it takes is it's okay. Whatever it takes. Wars can be fought forever and very successfully just using these supplies." Interesting. So then we're like, okay so we're winning, we're almost done or not?
Well then on March 6th, he told us that there will be no deal with Iran except total and unconditional surrender. That was not winning rhetoric. That was like a um we still got a lot of work to do and we'll just keep bombarding them until we win. It's a massive country by the way, it's It's three times the size of Ukraine and you know, even though we're stronger than Russia, let's just put it this way, the Russia-Ukraine war is in its fourth year, right?
Anyway, between March 8th and 11th, Donald Trump then told us two things at the same time. And this had to do with Pete Hegseth, so part of the Trump administration, on CBS on March 8th, saying the strikes were only just the beginning, but then the very next day, Donald Trump told CBS that the war was very complete, pretty much.
Okay, so which is it? This is just the beginning, or the war is very complete? Then, in that same interview with CBS, Donald Trump says that the United States, quote, could do a lot about the strait, and was thinking about taking the Strait of Hormuz Hormuz over. Now, that temporarily helped boost oil markets, because people were like, "Oh, great, if we control it, we can let oil flow." Now, this was on March 9th, thinking about taking over the strait.
People got excited about that. Okay, great. But, that's not what we have heard since then. In fact, it gets a little bit more ridiculous in just a moment. But anyway, we also heard on March 8th, so right around the time of the CBS interview, that there were rumors about special forces potentially going in to seize uranium.
Donald Trump then talked about it and suggested that that decision had not been made, but he did confirm the rumor that maybe at some point in the future we'll go in and we'll seize the uranium in some form of, quote, short-term excursion. This was on a Reuters video, Donald Trump describing the war as a short-term excursion, and that we might end up sending special forces in to extract that highly enriched uranium.
Donald Trump also says we've already won in many ways, but we haven't won enough. We need more winning. Okay, interesting. So, then, a few days later, March 10th to 11th, he tells us again that while this excursion's going on, and maybe we'll send special forces, he says, "Oh, uh by the way, we're almost done." Which is interesting because on one hand he tells us we're almost done, but then we're also hearing we're just beginning.
On March 11th, he says there's practically nothing left at the country, and anytime I want to end the war, I can end the war because there are basically no targets left. Which is really interesting because it's the opposite of what's happened over the last 10 days, where it seems like we've increased our bombardment of Iran, especially now with A-10 uh Warthogs, as well as uh Apache helicopters doing everything in their power to try to control that region along the Strait of Hormuz, that coastline, that elevated region, to try to attack targets.
The problem is that seems like an escalation, and it seems like Donald Trump is trying to secure the strait, but then today he told us, "Nah, just kidding. We might not want to secure the Strait of Hormuz at all." I actually like graft all of this flip-flopping just so you could see it here. Look at this.
This is all the flip-flopping we've been seeing. So, we literally go from like escalatory comments last summer to obviously we're starting the war, we've hit so many targets, we're almost done, we're thinking about ground troops, JK, and and you could see like this is not us going crazy with flip-flopping.
In fact, you know, our last coupon was too big to rig because of that horrible jobs report. I I'm instituting coupon code flip-flop. Now, no no rush, there's no rush on this one, you know, I'm not trying to like pitch this as a major rush, but coupon code flip-flop is going to be the next one because that's what Donald Trump is doing here for the Meet Kevin courses and and the Reinvest AI.
But let's focus for a moment. So, March 11th, practically nothing left. March 11th again, he goes on later to say, "Hey, we've got to finish the job, and we're winning, but we do have to finish the last job. Everything that's left that we need to handle could be done in an hour. That was a direct quote from Donald Trump that what remains in Iran, quote, could be taken out in an hour.
On March 13th, he was asked, "When does he feel like he's going to end the war?" And he says, "When I feel it in my bones." Okay, so it has nothing to do with finishing those targets in an hour. It has to do with when you feel it in your bones. Then, on March 13th, we hear from the Associated Press that the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, the USS Tripoli, which is based in Japan, has been ordered to the Middle East, which is the amphibious assault unit.
We're going to have like 2,200 Marines plus another 2,500 sailors. That sounds escalatory. Then, on March 13th, he says, "Many countries are going to be sending warships, and the US will force open the Strait of Hormuz." He says, quote, "One way or another, we will soon get the Strait of Hormuz open, safe, and free." Those were literally his words, which again, he just U-turned on once again today, or flip-flopped.
March 15th to 16th, about 4 days ago, he demands help from our allies, saying it would be nice to have other countries police that with us, and we'll help, we'll work with them. It's only appropriate that those who are the beneficiaries of the Strait will make sure that nothing bad happens down there.
Of course, you know, Donald Trump went into this incursion against Iran with Israel, not with the Europeans, and the Europeans broadly rejected helping in the Strait. Now, Donald Trump then says, "Whether we get support or not, we will remember." And the very next day, on March 16th, our allies in Europe were like, "Yeah, no.
We're This is not our war. We didn't start this. We're not sending troops or you know, ships to the Strait of Hormuz into the way of danger." On March 17th, Donald Trump then flip-flops and says, "You know what? We don't need your help anyway. We're the strongest nation in the the world, but we will remember." Then, on March 18th, we once again get official discussions about securing the highly enriched uranium and potentially ground invasions, taking islands such as Kharg Island, or maybe even Hormuz Island so they could see the Salt Goddess.
On March 19th, the administration said that there is no time frame at the moment and we don't want to set a definitive time frame for ending this war. On March 19th, so yesterday, Donald Trump tells us, "I'm not putting troops anywhere." And then literally today, we get news from the Associated Press and Reuters that both verified that the US is now deploying additional amphibious ships, another 2,200 Marines and sailors via two more MEUs that are now moving from San Diego to the Middle East.
Potentially to bring boots on the ground, which is what Donald Trump also campaigned on not doing. Then after the market tank today, Donald Trump said, "You know, we're winding down. I don't want a ceasefire, but but we're winding this down. We're getting very close to meeting our objectives." And then literally at the same time, he says, "The Strait of Hormuz will have to be guarded and policed as necessary by other nations.
The United States does not." So in other words, we're now going from we'll do it ourselves because nobody is helping us to, "You know what? Let everybody else handle it. We'll just not handle it." It sort of just seems like Donald Trump reacts to like what the stock market is doing in the day and it quickly sends out a tweet to try to get his, you know, cronies to go make some money in the stock market again.
Uh I don't understand, but if you're getting vertigo from this, uh I don't blame you. I am like so uh shell-shocked, I feel like on a daily basis. And I feel like the only source that source of like truth right now is what's going on in the bond market. And the bond market, as well as short-term inflation expectations, are absolutely de-anchoring.
We're sitting on 1-year inflation expectations that have skyrocketed to the highest level that we've seen, I think, in the last 4 years. We're almost knocking on the door of getting to the levels that we haven't seen since COVID. Uh I'll show you a quick screenshot of that so you can see it. So this is from the Bloomberg terminal.
This has been circulating online. You can see the one year break even here is absolutely skyrocketed up to about 5.2%. So it's not great because now it means that the central banks like Jerome Powell and the Fed are probably not going to be here to bail us out. That we can't basically like just trust the Fed because they're going to run the money printer.
They're literally telling us no, we're actually probably going to go in the opposite direction. Now we're seeing rate hikes get priced into the market. All this suck.
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