저자: Kevin · 외국인
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글로벌 경기침체로 자동차 업계 감산이 예상되며, 전기차 세액공제(7,500달러)만으로는 레거시 업체의 EV 투자 동기가 약하다는 주장. 반면 경쟁사(루시드·리비안 등)는 재정난과 주문 취소 위기에 처해 있어 경기침체가 테슬라에 상대적으로 유리하다고 봄. 단기적으로 중국 수요 급감과 일론 머스크의 트위터 관련 주식 매도는 부정적이지만, 장기적으로 테슬라 투자 기회가 계속 좋아 보인다는 견해. 멕시코 기가팩토리 투자(8~10억 달러 규모)를 긍정 요인으로 제시.
다듬은 글
there are no shortages of negative catalysts for Tesla I will be reviewing those negative catalysts towards the end of this video but first i'm going to introduce something to you that could actually be mind-blowing and I'm not here to fluff or pump the pricing power good old PP of a Tesla I'm just here to provide you what could be a very realistic future for Tesla relative to the competition look we've all heard about these rumors about production Cuts in the automotive industry and the fact is it's true the automotive industry is likely to reduce production in 2023 as we go into a recessionary environment now this is actually very very common first of all we've already seen Toyota reduce production in December we also have Toyota suspending production at two very large plants in Japan for 16 days throughout January citing shortages and a covid but let's be real it's probably because of man drop off even Bentley is reducing their production targets for 2023 as Chinese new orders slow and they shelve their IPO plans the fact is that North American vehicle production for new vehicles is expected to be less than the 18 million vehicle production cycle Peak that we ordinarily hit before the crazy times we've been going through of shortages and that's because manufacturers are likely to try to survive rather than to increase their e v efforts now that I really want you to think about what I just said if manufacturers try to focus on Surviving rather than focusing on EV what does that potentially mean well consider the following price and margin become very very important during a recession and what does a company like Ford not have with their lightning 150 pickup truck or their Mach e price and margin they don't have that why because their gross profit on these vehicles is negative now that's really scary but it makes sense why right now Ford is only producing sixty thousand machines and thirty thousand F-150s just one fifth that's just 20 percent of their 2023 targets because they're money losing money pits money losing money bits they lose a lot of money okay now a lot of folks say but Kevin isn't the EV credit likely to sway more automakers into the EV market after all it's 7 500 bucks to the consumer and it's rumored that maybe manufacturers who make EVS could take a lot of that benefit and the consumer just basically pays a higher price the manufacturer takes a lot of that benefit potentially but the EV credit is only likely to represent under one percent to at best 1.3 of vehicle sales between now and 2030.
so you have to ask yourself if you're a Legacy auto manufacturer if you're a GM a Ford or a Toyota are you really trying to risk the profitability of your company chasing electric vehicles because of a tax credit that's going to cap at 1.3 percent of total vehicle sales of course not in fact you're much more likely to actually double down on your Antiquated ways and try to suggest that you as part of the ice vehicle manufacturing industry are part of none other than folks the silent majority I kid you not let me introduce you to exhibit a quick message before we hit exhibit a the only sponsor of this channel is myself and the new holiday coupon code linked re will be some phenomenal new lectures coming out and anybody who joins gets lifetime access to all of them for real estate investing fundamental analysis and perspectives on building your long-term wealth as well as massive tax hacks that just don't perform well on YouTube when I share them on YouTube so I don't and I haven't found this information anywhere else so if you want to learn some really incredible strategies to maximizing your wealth and minimizing your taxes Check Out programs like the elite Hustlers course on building your income Top Line bottom line employed self-employed check out stocks and psychology of money and really learn about money okay we're talking money here not not short-term get rich quick nonsense real estate long-term Building Wealth with real estate investing how exactly is house hack going to go buy real estate and what can you learn to apply that yourself check out those programs at that holiday coupon code link down below and even though times are hard right now do consider the holiday environment that we're in and take advantage of the holiday coupon code in fact if you want to give one of the courses to anyone you're welcome to email us at Kevin meet kevin.com and we can make sure it's delivered on Christmas or Christmas Eve whatever you prefer for you let me introduce you to exhibit a a Wall Street Journal article that talks about the president of Toyota whose last name is toyoda yes yes I know uh anyway questioning whether electric vehicles should be pursued exclusively now we know that EVS are difficult to manufacture relative to ice in that you have to secure new Supply chains but they're actually substantially easier to put together once you figure your stuff out but the president of Toyota says they would prefer to focus on hybrids and Ice vehicles and get this hydrogen powered vehicles rather than focus on EVS because you know what they say they say the following the silent majority is when wondering whether electric vehicles are really okay to have as a single option the silent majority think that the trend is electric vehicles so I guess we can't speak out loudly against electric vehicles but let's be real we're all in on Ice vehicles and hybrids and hydrogen power powered vehicles and those good old gas engines because that's what people want because you know what charging infrastructure is still too challenging so therefore let's just Double Down On Ice vehicles and after all the gas engine businesses are driving a bulk of the profits that these companies are creating anyway and so again why potentially risk massive downside to your company stock and profitability by doubling down on electric vehicles during a recession why not instead just paint the picture that hey you know what electric vehicles are a niche segment of the business just 6.5 percent of the total Global new car market and you know what we could instead just focus on hybrids that can deliver a better shorter term impact for the climate and you know what electric vehicles are just too complicated in fact look even us over here at Toyota you know we've been a little slower than Rivals to roll out electric vehicles and maybe it's because the ones that we've created like the bz4x got recalled because of safety problems well folks at I want you to think about here for a moment is wait a minute if Kevin is suggesting that the Eevee tax credit is ironically not good enough to motivate manufacturers to get into EV manufacturing other than those that already are like lucid rivie and tassel right if that's not enough to motivate the forward the GMS the Teslas the Audis the Mercedes to really double down on EV manufacturing especially going into a recession where they might want to appear profitable so they Double Down On Ice Vehicles rather than EV then wait a minute the competition is exiting in the recession think about that folks the recession is destroying Tesla's competition okay sure look Lucid is an EV right they'll benefit benefit prop potentially from this EV tax credit if they can Source locally at over 75 percent blah blah blah blah right maybe but if they produce 17 000 vehicles in 2023 knock on wood for their sake they will still have half of their customers waiting until 2024 for a vehicle when you could press buy now on a Tesla right now baby and guess what I don't know about you but if I want something I kind of rather have it now then wait another year so there's a real big benefit to Tesla being able to say hey push the buy now button on a car and you'll have it tomorrow people like that people like instant gratification and that's why Lucid is now scrambling to prevent cancellations I did a video the other week when I was covering the riving and Lucid bankruptcy potential where Lucid is potentially now scrambling to say if somebody wants to cancel a local manager has to call the person three times then a regional manager has or store manager has to call the person two times then a regional manager has to call the person two times and they all have to try to convince the person not to cancel the deal something to that effect now Lucid did just raise 1.5 billion dollars and add the money at the market at the money offering which is basically just a stock offering they raised 1.5 billion dollars the stock actually went up briefly on this news because it decreases their bankruptcy risk slightly it gives them another nine month Runway of cash burn 1.5 billion dollars is roughly the cash burn they had in the last nine months but another company expecting cancellations is Arabian mostly due to the fact that their entry product is now more than eighty thousand dollars why not buy a Tesla Model three potentially for closer to forty thousand dollars anyway Point here is that this recessionary environment interestingly from a fundamental point of view could absolutely destroy Tesla's competition and pave the path to none other than reiterating which already is dominant Tesla's actual dominance as the other manufacturers crawl into a hole and go back to making the gas guzzling Vehicles they're good at producing wow now how's that for a fundamental argument you haven't heard of before but wait a minute Kevin the stunk is going down and it's so painful I look at my portfolio and it's red every day yes I feel ya okay it makes me want to go back to the bottle I'm talking of course about like the baby bottle like drinking milk and crawling up into a hole and being covered in a little blankie and going to sleep until it's all over it does hurt it sucks and if you define yourself buy your portfolio every morning you're gonna get watery eyes and and your stomach's gonna feel bad and you're gonna oh God you're gonna feel a shortness of breath why because in the stock market and this is something we teach in the stocks and psychology of money group and this is not a get rich quick kind of scheme my courses are long-term programs on building your wealth trying to teach you how to change the way you think in painful times that is hard to do and let me just give you one Insight here it is hard to see your portfolio go down why because my friends because because because when we are in pain or in fear we seek the natural reaction of either fight or flight well guess what folks you can't fight stocks just like you can't fight the Fed so what are you left with flight that's it it's either you eat the pain or you flee and you sell and that sucks and I'll tell you there are no shortages of short-term garbage catalysts tax loss harvesting please tax loss Harvest some Tesla most retails sell in December to tax loss Harvest and most retail rebuy in January probably because of tax loss harvesting guess what else you have an institutionally Untouchable stock with every single credit or maybe not every single but many different uh price targeting firms uh reducing their price targets for Tesla because guess what that's what they do when stock prices go up they increase their price targets when stocks go down they decrease their price targets you want to fact check that go look up what the price targets were for Nikola when the stock was going up everybody on wall Street's raising their price targets about how great Nikola is all a farce it's all a short-term farce I kid you not it's all a farce sure Elon Musk is looking for a new CEO for Twitter yes Elon Musk is robbing the piggy bank of Tesla yes yes Elizabeth Warren is correct when she says Elon Musk is using Tesla as his play thing she is right and I almost never agree with Elizabeth Warren okay but she is right Elon Musk is using Tesla as his piggy bank to go dick around at Twitter but you know what that's his right okay it might be a slap in the face to every Tesla investor it might be a slap in the face to every engineer and hard-working soul with stock options at Tesla and they might see their net worth plummeting and they might doubt the own company they work for but the reality is just because Elon absorbs six weeks of retail order book of hoddle order book with one foul swoop of selling doesn't change the long-term fundamentals for Tesla now I know some people then go oh my gosh but Kevin the volume is so much higher on Tesla stock what do you mean six weeks of the order book listen institutions trade stocks retail individuals trade stocks that's how you get volume volume is trading but there are also hodlers of a stock like employees who believe in the company or long-term investors who believe in the company and when those people have their shares eradicated by Elon selling you actually Notch the fundamental floor for Tesla stock down and I should not use the word fundamental here because fundamentals should be long-term business fundamentals but you have to think that huddlers long-term Believers in a stock create a floor a trading floor for a stock and when those floors get broken and they're purchasing their fundamental based purchasing gets eaten Away by Insider selling because elon's going to go play with uh you know Twitter it sucks there's nothing you can do about it but that's what happens and you end up absorbing six weeks of retail buying pressure huddle buying pressure on Tesla because of Elon sales and if he's selling again uh yeah you know today where the NASDAQ is flat and Tesla's down two percent again maybe maybe and it's painful but let's also consider something else some folks are worried that Tesla might have to drop prices or hey what's going on with the Tesla China demand okay look China I believe is in the biggest depression ever not only that but they're lying to our faces about how many people are now dying to covet as overnight they just lifted the blanket of covet and they're like you know what everybody gets sick if you die oh well okay who the hell is gonna buy a car in China when everybody is stuck at home either fearful of getting sick or they are sick okay China's gonna go through hell for the next two or three months and it's gonna suck but which should not make you fearful is the reiteration Tesla is giving you about Tesla Mexico Tesla Mexico is expected to be at least an 800 to 800 million to one billion dollar investment into the northeastern facility of Giga tax era of gigas Giga Mexico actually and uh this is initially expected to produce a components supplying uh Giga Austin Texas but in the future could have as much as 10 billion dollars of investment flow into Giga Mexico and potentially be the site of a new low-cost production Tesla this is a huge game changer for Tesla and an incredible opportunity to exercise optionality on the long-term value of of Tesla uh Giga Mexico is going to be huge especially in my last video about gig at Mexico where we talked about Tesla is likely to explode soon because Giga Mexico is part of the free trade agreements that we need for Tesla to maximize that 7 500 EV credit for all their customers over the incremental incrementally harder targets that are set over the next years and think about this put these pieces of the puzzle together here yes in the short term you have China fud it's real okay it's not it's not fake news it's real china demand falling off a cliff because of what's happening in China but in the long term what do we have other manufacturers going away and moving away from EVS to protect their profit margins where Tesla can now step in and just take more of the EV tax credit and is now likely rather than doing stock BuyBacks to appease the whiny people on Twitter reinvesting in itself because it believes so much in its own demand now I know some people are concerned but why when you go on Tesla can you now hit buy now instead of custom order this is a good thing we talked about this in the course member live stream yesterday this is a good thing if I go into the Apple Store and I'm like and I did this I bought this in Paris this is uh you know I don't know this is like the star star color or whatever of the iPad Mini here I walked into that store and I said I want the mini iPad if they told me well it'll be three weeks I'm like well then I won't buy it I mean I'm on vacation now I want a smaller iPad to have while I'm walking around Paris and traveling and stuff but no what do they say sure hey you know what we don't have all the colors available but we got this one oh yeah you know what I'll take it because I want it now that's America or first world country since that was in France but anyway that's what we want we want things now and if Tesla can provide now and they're still not yet reducing prices that's a really good sign now I do want you to prepare price Cuts will come but as long as price Cuts occur slower than costs decline that could actually be okay because it means that Tesla can actually potentially either maintain or increase margin while reducing prices and remember even if Tesla doesn't necessarily reduce prices even if prices stay stable it's still a good thing for the Federal Reserve because we just don't want to see prices increasing we want to see stability that stability is zero percent inflation so long and short out of all of this yes other manufacturers are going to scale back their EV production in a recession yes there are a hell of a lot of bad short-term catalysts for Tesla it's painful it sucks I don't blame you for selling but in the long term I personally and this is my personal opinion not Financial advice for you I personally do not see a better opportunity in the market I have not seen a better opportunity in the market for like the last 100 on Tesla share price which just shows that that opportunity keeps getting better and better and better and you know what it might keep getting better and better and better I'm not here to tell you that Tesla's gonna go green after you buy it in fact it's going to feel like a money pit in a furnace and guess what that is what it means to be a recessionary based investor when you're investing in a recession it feels like hell and I'm sorry I wish I could make the pain stop but boy the more and more I look at the fundamentals the more I'm like man I wish I had some more dough to throw muscle stock because it's good it's bill to pay so I had to sell a little bit and it pains me but I still hold the vast majority of my Tesla shares very very excited about the long-term future of Tesla and you know what don't need the money so hey buckle up folks we're on a ride
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