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Ray Dalio, founder of the world's largest hedge fund and a seasoned investor, started Bridgewater Associates in a two-bedroom apartment in 1975, eventually growing it into the world's largest hedge fund. Over the decades, he has generated approximately $ 53 billion in gains for investors, consistently delivering returns and emphasizing long-term strategies.
He studies economies, believing that all market fluctuations and social changes have underlying causes and effects. Currently, everyone should be vigilant about two things: the rise of AI and the risks of a major 80-year global cycle. First, I must state clearly that AI is a revolutionary technology that will replace human manual labor and analytical thinking, much like electricity, automobiles, and the internet did, reshaping human society and business models.
The public's expectations for AI may be inflated, as the true value of a technology is never equivalent to the rational valuation in capital markets. The roots of the current AI craze reflect history, where disruptive revolutionary assets like electricity, home appliances, and automobiles in the 1920s brought new growth, led to frantic stock market chasing, and ultimately triggered bubbles that burst.
Similarly, after the dot-com bubble burst, the market is now obsessed with AI; investors are once again blinded by the promise of revolutionary profits, pouring massive funds into AI, with many startups hyped to valuations that are already fragile. It won't just be a simple stock market decline; when economic assets crash, investors are forced to sell at low prices, leading to reduced consumption, lower corporate profits, job losses, and a shrinking overall economy, which is cause for alarm.
While AI exists, rigorous historical research shows we are in the downward phase of a major 80 -year global cycle, facing multiple risks. It is not merely a matter of technological innovation, but its destructive potential. With tools like YouTube and GPT, one only needs a query to get results, and monthly subscriptions have changed our experience in three major ways.
First, major economies like the US and UK have long-term high fiscal deficits, leaving governments with no room to respond to economic downturn shocks. The most typical example was the UK's situation years ago, where any policy choice would have triggered social unrest. Contradictory policies have led to a dilemma.
Second, the wealth gap is widening; capitalism concentrates wealth, where capital owners enjoy gains while ordinary workers are replaced, ultimately causing social division and political polarization; and third, geopolitical tensions are escalating. Currently, for most countries, their largest trading partners have become their rivals, leading to an overall rise in global instability.
Many people ask: when will AI peak or trigger a market correction? A collapse requires extreme events; these two factors are what we must watch. First, policy tightening and high-interest environments make bonds more attractive, drawing capital away from high-valuation stocks while significantly increasing debt pressure.
Second, asset supply is growing; as the market is flooded with new AI company shares, the constant influx of new chips disrupts supply-demand balance, driving market volatility. Furthermore, speculative chasing of high-valued assets creates a risk-sensitive environment where any slight disturbance can trigger a sell-off.
Stocks offer long-term growth, though bonds provide greater stability, albeit with longer cycles. Real estate combines both usage and forced attributes, while gold remains the highest-quality safe-haven asset across cycles. It can provide a buffer, and I suggest ordinary people allocate some assets to gold.
As for Bitcoin, despite its innovative nature and breakthrough potential, it is easily influenced by quantum technology, raising concerns about its stability. For young people entering the workforce, the unique challenge is that AI-replaceable jobs will be phased out. The job market is severely polarized; top talent will have infinite opportunities, while average professionals will face displacement.
My advice to young people is to hone irreplaceable skills within their industry. First, master AI tools and turn them into amplifiers of your own capabilities. Additionally, maintain multiple streams of income while working. Finally, understand that top-tier abilities can command premium value and ensure long-term self-sufficiency.
For entrepreneurs, the best strategy right now is to stay level-headed amidst market frenzy. Savvy AI founders have already begun to scale. Go with the flow, wait for the bubble to burst, and then acquire competitors at a lower cost. This is how to choose winners for this cycle. Meanwhile, be cautious when the industry is blindly expanding; staying conservative allows you to survive the downturn.
YouTube is a great tool; with just a simple QL, you can achieve in three or four months what used to take a year, without missing a beat.
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