저자: CharlieMunger관련해설영상 · 외국인
요약 보기
찰리 멍거가 알리바바 주식을 추가 매수한 사실을 중심으로, 중국 경제 성장성과 알리바바의 투자 매력을 설명하는 영상이다. 멍거는 중국 공산당이 시장경제를 수용해 빈곤 탈출을 이뤘다고 높이 평가하며, 중국 정부가 기업의 번영을 허용할 것이라고 봤다. 해설에 따르면 Daily Journal은 알리바바 지분을 83% 늘려 30만 주 이상 보유하게 됐다. 중국 경제는 1989~2019년 평균 9.52% 성장했고, 1인당 GDP는 약 10,710달러로 미국(약 66,678달러)의 6분의 1 수준이라 성장 여력이 크다고 설명한다. 알리바바 투자 매력으로는 첫째, 지난 10년 매출 연평균 60%, 잉여현금흐름 57%, EPS 66% 성장과 수익성 유지를 들었다. 최근 실적은 이커머스 35%, 클라우드 29%, 총매출 34% 성장으로 제시됐다. 둘째, 결제(알리페이)·물류(차이냐오)·이커머스(타오바오·티몰)로 이어지는 '아이언 트라이앵글'이 해자 역할을 하며, 중국 시장의 외국 기업 진입장벽도 강점이다. 셋째, 고점 대비 50% 이상 하락해 PER 19로 아마존(57), 애플(28) 등에 비해 저평가라는 주장이다. 리스크로는 중국 정부의 '공동부유' 정책을 꼽았다. 온라인 교육 기업 수익 금지로 관련 주가가 하루 만에 70% 떨어졌고, 알리바바 지분 33%를 가진 앤트그룹의 기업공개(IPO)가 규제로 취소됐다. 이 때문에 장기 수익성에 대한 우려가 커졌다. 모니시 파브라이는 알리바바를 중국의 보석으로 보고 정부가 '황금알을 낳는 거위'를 해치지 않을 것이라며 추가 규제 가능성을 낮게 봤다. 해설자는 클라우드 사업의 장기 가치를 강조하며 이 부문이 아직 수익성이 낮지만 미래 성장 가능성이 크다고 평가했다.
다듬은 글
The Daily Journal recently acquired a large stake in Alibaba after founder Jack Ma was criticized by the Chinese Communist Party and his other company, Ant, was banned from conducting an IPO. What are your current thoughts on China and will communist leaders allow businesses with strong leadership to thrive in the coming decades ?
The Chinese government will allow business to flourish. It was one of the most remarkable events in world history when a group of dedicated communists simply looked at the prosperity of places like Singapore and said, to hell with it, we're not going to stay in poverty. We are going to copy what works.
And they changed communism. They simply took Adam Smith, added him to their communism, and said: now we have communism with Chinese characteristics. That is, China with a free market, a bunch of billionaires, etc. And they made this transition. They deserve great respect. Warren and I are not so good at changing our views in many cases.
And it was an extraordinary change for such a place. And, of course, it worked extremely successfully. They have achieved a huge increase in the average income of the average Chinese person. They lifted 800 million people out of poverty. Quickly. And this has never happened in the history of the world.
So I take my hat off to the Chinese. And I think they will continue to allow people to make money. They learned that it works. The Chinese...I liked what that man said at the very beginning. I don't care if the cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice. This is my style. One of Warren Buffett's favorite quotes is: "Be greedy when others are fearful." Buffett's business partner, Charlie Munger, demonstrated this approach last quarter by doubling his stake in Alibaba shares while other shareholders rushed to the exits.
Munger is best known as Buffett's right-hand man and vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway . However, the 97-year-old has also been chairman of the Daily Journal since 1977 and manages the newspaper publisher and legal software provider's investment portfolio . Last quarter, Munger nearly doubled the number of stocks the portfolio owns.
The Daily Journal increased its stake in Alibaba by 83%, to more than 300,000 shares. He only started buying shares of the Chinese e-commerce group in the first quarter of this year. This was such big news because it was the first new stock added to the investment portfolio since 2013. In this video, we'll explain Munger's arguments for buying stocks and why their price continues to decline.
Charlie Munger is a true long-term investor . One thing he is certain about in the long term is that China's economy will continue to grow. During Charlie's nearly 100 years of life, he saw China transform from an extremely poor country to one on its way to becoming the world's largest economy. Alibaba's massive success over the past 20 years would not have been possible without the explosive growth of the Chinese economy .
As the world's second- largest economy , China experienced an average growth rate of 9.52% from 1989 to 2019. This is by far the highest growth rate among all major countries. China is the second largest economy with a value of $14.14 trillion. While the United States remains the largest economy at $24 trillion, the reason some are so optimistic about the future of China's economy can be explained by one simple statistic —GDP per capita.
It is calculated by dividing the size of a country's economy by the number of people living in it . For the United States, this figure is $66,678 per person. For Germany, it is $49,548. For Japan, it is $43,597. For China, it is $10,710 per person, which is less than 1/6 of the US figure. With a population of nearly 1.5 billion people compared to 330 million in the US, the potential of the Chinese economy is enormous simply because the population is so large.
If China can raise its GDP per capita to the level of more developed countries, its huge population will quickly make the economy gigantic. Although China remains formally communist, the 1978 economic reform program was a major success in terms of economic growth, leading to an average increase from 6% to over 9%.
The reform program emphasized the creation of private and rural enterprises, abolished state price regulation, and invested in workforce education and industrial production. You don't have to be one of the greatest investors of all time to understand why Charlie Munger wanted to invest in Alibaba. Here are three reasons why.
Number one: high growth rates. Over the past 10 years, Alibaba has grown revenue by an average of 60% per year. The company grew free cash flow by 57% over the same period. And perhaps the most impressive indicator is that Alibaba has been able to increase earnings per share by an average of 66% over 10 years.
To put that number into perspective, I would call 10% EPS growth a very healthy number for a large company. Alibaba's earnings per share growth rate over the past decade has averaged nearly seven times higher. Despite all the negative news surrounding the company, it has continued to grow significantly over the past year.
Take a look at these numbers from the latest earnings report. Alibaba grew its e- commerce segment by an impressive 35% year-over-year, and its all- important cloud computing segment by 29% year-over-year. The company's total revenue grew by 34%. This is very impressive for a company the size of Alibaba .
To better understand this, note that Walmart, the world's largest retailer, increased its revenue by only 2.4% over the same period. Alibaba is clearly growing, and growing fast. And, perhaps most importantly, the company is able to achieve such growth while remaining profitable. Most companies that grow so quickly, especially in the e- commerce space, are not profitable due to all the costs associated with rapid business growth, such as hiring new employees , advertising, investing in distribution centers and warehouses, etc.
So the fact that Alibaba remains profitable during such growth is extremely impressive. Number two is "moat". The next reason why Alibaba is attractive is that the company has a strong competitive advantage, or what Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett call a “ moat.” A “moat” is simply something that helps a company maintain its current market position and fight off competitors who want to steal the company’s customers.
Alibaba founder Jack Ma describes Alibaba's "moat" as what is called an " iron triangle ." Alibaba's "Iron Triangle" is a combination of e-commerce , logistics, and finance. This triangle consists of Alipay for payments, Cainiao for logistics, and this combination of payments and logistics creates a network effect for Taobao and Tmall.
This concept comes from the book "Alibaba: The House That Jack Ma Built ". Alibaba's e-commerce sites offer shoppers an unparalleled range of products. Their logistics services ensure that these goods are delivered quickly and reliably. Alipay enables Alibaba to receive payment through an easy and hassle-free process.
Another big “moat” is the fact that, let’s be honest, China is not the friendliest country for non-Chinese companies entering their market. This creates what is called a barrier to entry in investing. Simply put, a barrier to entry is something that prevents or makes it difficult for newcomers to enter a market, and as a result, limits competition.
It is very difficult for international companies to enter the Chinese market and try to compete with Alibaba. For example, if I wanted to start an e- commerce company to compete with Amazon here in the United States, I could definitely try. I would probably fail at this, given Amazon's sheer size and dominance, but I could at least try .
However, today, as an American, I would not be able to do this in China without the approval of the Chinese government. The third point is that many people consider Alibaba to be undervalued. Stocks have fallen more than 50% from their all-time highs in October 2020. Alibaba's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 19.
To compare with other large, fast- growing tech companies: Amazon's P/E is 57. Apple's is 28. Facebook's is 24, Alphabet's is 30, and Netflix's is 65.6. But despite all these supposedly good reasons to invest in Alibaba stock, there's a reason why the company's value has halved from its highs. This reason is the Chinese government and its policy known as “shared prosperity.” The hope is that a combination of policy measures, market forces and philanthropy will help narrow a large and persistent wealth gap that could become a political threat to the ruling Communist Party if left unchecked .
And let's put it this way: the Chinese government has taken several steps that are not the most investor-friendly in an attempt to achieve the goal of " shared prosperity." For example, the Chinese government effectively banned online tutoring companies from making profits, turning what was previously considered one of the most promising sectors of the economy into a non-profit organization overnight.
Take a look at this graph. The new government policy caused shares of companies in this sector to fall by 70% literally overnight . These actions have made investors worry that further steps by the Chinese government could hurt Alibaba's long-term profitability. And Alibaba has not been left out of these government restrictions.
In fact, they are the main target of government policy. At the end of last year, Ant Group, 33% of which is owned by Alibaba, was preparing to go public. Ant Group is a financial technology company that owns China's largest digital payment platform, Alipay. Ant Group had already met with investors, and everything looked like things were going smoothly.
The firm was expected to raise $37 billion , and its valuation was reportedly approaching $300 billion, making it one of the most anticipated IPOs in history, as well as more valuable than Bank of America and JP Morgan Chase at the time . However, just before the company went public, Chinese regulators canceled the IPO.
At that time, the reason for the suspension of the placement was cited as changes in the regulatory environment of financial technologies. These events last year certainly worried investors, and at first glance, these fears are quite justified. So why are some of the most prominent investors buying up these stocks in droves despite such concerns?
Let's listen to the legendary Monish Pabrai, who recently purchased Alibaba shares, and find out why he is buying them. Alibaba is a real gem for China. Just like Tencent is their main asset. So I don't think they would want to harm them. These are companies that have the potential to go global. They have all the opportunities for this.
Therefore, I do not believe that the government will adopt an approach that , roughly speaking, will destroy the goose that lays the golden eggs. Mm. In my opinion, they have already taken their place and made it quite clear who is in charge here. That's it. So I don't expect anything more than what we've already seen .
Also, one more thing about Alibaba: in the long run, I think a significant part of the value for them is cloud technologies, which are almost unprofitable today . They have a certain scale, they are the market leaders, but if you look at Amazon's figures, they are a little misleading because they include all the internal cloud costs there.
So in reality, revenue of 50 billion and net profit of 15 billion look a bit low. I think they make more than 15 billion from this because they are also developing. They are investing in their future development. The profitability of cloud technologies is incredible, and the problem is that few can compete in this area .
In the US, the game is mostly over. The players are determined, and their position is unlikely to change in the future. These are the things. If you enjoyed this video, please like and subscribe to Investor Center, because my goal is to help you become a better investor. See you soon.
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