저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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이란의 페르시아만 봉쇄로 유가가 오르며 화학·정유·경기방어주가 강세인 장세. 기술주는 매수 구간에 근접했다고 보고 기술 섹터 복귀를 권함. 메타의 유휴 컴퓨팅 파워 매각 이슈를 언급. 옵션 전략(AMAT 약세 베팅, 기술주 숏풋 스프레드)을 소개하며 AMAT 실적 전 530 부근 하락을 가정. 마이크론은 AI 확산으로 메모리가 핵심 자원이 되었고 10억 달러 규모 보이시 연구센터 투자로 사이클이 장기화될 수 있다고 주장.
다듬은 글
Here we are again. Today's winners: chemical giant Dow, boring fertilizer company Mosaic, oil refiners, especially my favorite Valero, and fixed- price store chains. A reminder that the most boring stocks win when Iran blocks the Persian Gulf and oil prices rise. I don't think you should chase today's winners in the long run.
Although after a session where the Dow fell 138 points, yes, it lost 0.79% and the Nasdaq collapsed by 1.55%. I think it's time to go back to the technology sector to make money . Why? Because the technology sector is extremely resilient compared to other groups, and it just fell to a level that I think is very close to a buy zone again.
Iran notwithstanding, amazing things can happen in technology in an instant. Let's take last week. I said that Meta should do something meaningful with its excess computing power. They just lose a lot of money. The very next day, Meta does just that, confirming the story I helped publish the week before.
Simply acknowledging something so obvious has given you almost 100 points of profit this month. They have to sell some of this computing power. Now compare that to PepsiCo, a company that had previously delivered consistent growth for years, with shares falling to levels where it seemed easy to beat expectations.
But no. PepsiCo has disappointed you. With one simple solution, Meta gives you almost 100 points. PepsiCo is taking a serious hit after a weak quarter. After all, technology companies, especially big tech, have much more room to maneuver, because the stock can fall and you will still be in profit because the short vertical put spread is out of the money.
If you go down to the 525 strike, the probability of it ending out of the money is about 73%. This is the trade-off we always talk about in these passive or conservative trades, where I risk a lot more than I can potentially earn, but I get a better chance of success. The stock rises, consolidates, or even falls but remains above the breakeven point of $522.75—you will profit from this trade.
Therefore, using higher implied volatility also allows for a higher option premium for these out-of-the-money neutral or “ bullish” short put spreads on the eve of reporting. We will see this volatility decrease, but the idea is that you get 225, and if the stock closes above 525 tomorrow, you just keep that credit received on the short vertical put.
So, passively directed. Kevin, I was a little more aggressive on the downside if you think the stock is going to fall. This is a very short-term position on my unbalanced butterfly put with the expectation of a decline. I chose the same weekly options for August 14th, expiring tomorrow at the close.
So, an example of a type of income statement. Buying one put with a strike of 555, which is essentially "in the money." Selling two puts with a strike of 530. This is the price where you want the stock to go, and then buying one put with a strike of 520. You pay about $7.60 in debit for this. It's probably trading closer to 7.15 now.
So you can get it a little cheaper because the stock has increased a little. This reduces the price of this tool. But if you pay 7.60 debit, that's your risk. If you pay 7.15, then it's your risk. $7.15 or $7.60 risk. The peak return is at or near the strike where you sold two options, which is around strike 530.
That's almost one standard deviation. Kevin, your breakeven point here is 547.50 to the downside. So, this breakeven point fits perfectly into the market prices of options, but the main thing is that you need a downward movement for this to work, right? So, if you're bearish on Applied Materials ahead of the earnings report, look at the debit: around $7.60.
Look at the maximum profit—about $1,740. This is effectively a tripling if you are right if the price drops to the 530 strike. So, that is the beauty of the directional play. If you are right, you are aligning it with the expected move, but if on the downside the price flies by, as it often does this reporting season, breaking through one standard deviation, you are still protected.
You will still remain in profit. Not as big, but still profitable. You hold a long vertical put at $25 and a short vertical put at $10. Yes, and I think that's the main thing here. When you look at strategies like this , people might ask, “ Why did you choose an unbalanced butterfly put instead of just buying a vertical 555-530 put?” Well, it will cost you about 10 and a half bucks.
So you're at a much higher risk, right ? This is almost a moderately bearish position, where with this strategy you want to get as close to the 530 indicator as possible. If you use a regular vertical put spread, you need the price to drop to 530 and go lower. You may get a slightly better reward, but even if the stock falls below the 520 strike in this unbalanced butterfly strategy, the return will still be about double.
So, this is a cautious bearish put- butterfly on AMAT along with Kevin's passive short put spread, which is neutral- bullish, Diane. I think the key here is that you need the stock to fall to around $530 and hold there, then both of these trades will be profitable. Okay, so there's a common bond regarding different Hello everyone, welcome back to my channel.
I hope you are doing well today. So, without wasting any time, let's begin our video. If you're watching this video so far, subscribe to our channel and also share it with your friends. The biggest mistake an investor can make now is to look at Micron as if it were the same memory company it was 5 or 10 years ago.
Business is still cyclical, but the demand that drives this cycle is completely different. AI transforms memory from a background component to one of the most important constants in the entire computing system. And Micron is investing billions to make sure it is ready for this shift. The stake is $10 billion.
Micron is building a major research center in Boise with a planned investment of about $10 billion. And the goal is ambitious. Ambitious. Micron wants to bring together its own researchers with universities, startups, customers and technology partners to develop the next generation of memory technologies.
The focus is not just on producing more chips. He is solving problems created by increasingly powerful AI systems. This includes new materials, semiconductor technologies, memory architecture, and ways to integrate memory with the computer. In other words, Micron is not just preparing for the next product cycle.
It is preparing for the next era of computing. Why has memory suddenly become so important? For decades, investors have generally thought about computing through the lens of processors. The CPU processed instructions, and the GPU took on increasingly demanding workloads. Memory was in the background, and AI changed this dynamic relationship.
Modern AI models generate vast amounts of information, and this information must move through the system, be stored, retrieved, and processed. And as models get larger and the amount of work involved in generating inferences increases, the system will need more bandwidth , capacity, speed, and efficiency.
This is why high- bandwidth memory has become such a critical part of AI infrastructure. A GPU may be a competitor, but without sufficient memory, that computing power will not be able to operate effectively. And this creates a "bottleneck ". The wall of memory is getting higher and higher. But here's the important part.
AI isn't just increasing the number of GPUs in data centers. It increases the amount of memory required for these GPUs to operate. And the next generation of AI could make this demand even greater. Think about what will happen when AI goes beyond chatbots and cloud applications? You will get automated vehicles.
You will get humanoid robots. You will get industrial automation. You will get intelligent machines that operate continuously in the physical world. Each of these systems must process and store huge amounts of information. This potentially creates another wave of demand for memory. Why does Micron want to control this technology?
Micron has been through a brutal memory market cycle before. The industry has historically suffered from a familiar scenario. Demand is growing, producers are increasing capacity, supply is catching up, and prices are collapsing. Margins disappear, and then companies cut production. Eventually the cycle begins again, but today Micron is making a very different argument.
The company believes that AI is creating a strategic increase in memory requirements that could make this cycle sustainably longer.
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