저자: DanIves · 외국인
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2025년 테크 섹터 25% 성장 전망, AI 2차 파생(소프트웨어·서비스) 수혜 강조. 팔란티어·세일즈포스·오라클·MongoDB·Snowflake 등 AI 실사용 사례 확산 기대. M&A·IPO 증가 예상, 빅테크 집중 심화. 2025년 AI 관련 지출 향후 3년 2조 달러 전망. 고밸류·내부자 매도·규제 리스크는 언급되나 낙관 유지.
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and even more so the fact that you largely been right Dan you're going to be wrong one of these days but it wasn't this year why don't you think it will be next year as you continue to be so incredibly bullish on so many different names in technology Dan IES predicts a 25% growth in the tech sector in 2025 driven by the AI Revolution he sees early stage opportunities with companies like Nvidia Microsoft Tesla and palter positioned to benefit as AI adoption accelerates across Industries IES highlights the multiplier effect of AI Investments fueling broader Tech Innovation and Enterprise adoption he emphasizes the importance of Aid driven software with leaders like paler and Salesforce showing significant growth potential despite valuation concerns IES believes these companies can evolve into major Tech players he also notes that Capital expenditures on AI will drive long-term growth with increasing Enterprise use cases additionally IES expects a surge in mergers and IPOs as companies seek scale in AI he foresees in intensified competition among Tech Giants and Regulatory challenges but remains optimistic about the sector's resilience and expansion in 2025 Nvidia unusual option activity uh today we're going to talk about it uh again today but yesterday they were buying the January 140 strike calls in there they bought thousands of those over 50,000 I believe was the number but today stocks down about 2% still up over 170% so far this year but I think some somebody thinks that uh some gains are going to be capped this was out in the January 10th weekly cycle so just about 10 days till expiration on this one Traders sold over 50,000 of a call vertical they sold the 50, 141 strike calls and then they bought 50,000 uh the 149 strike calls short so a short $8 wide call vertical to the upside they collected a credit on average of about $148 for this $8 wide call vertical uh that takes a break even where they start to lose money up to 14248 over the next week and a half that's about 6% above the current share price so somebody thinks that uh that uh the Stock's going to remain consolidating or even lower this has been the underperformer in the mag 7 so far in the month of December but somebody taking a shot here but they did stay risk to find so even if the stock does go above 149 they know exactly what their potential losses you see that right there they collected a $148 on over 50,000 of those call verticals in Nvidia so that's our take what happens next year do we see this continuation with these Mega tech stocks we definitely do but we have to look at this differently so we're big on AI but the question is what are the AI derivatives so what are the second order third order derivatives of AI and so the second order ones are looking at software companies that are taking advantage of AI because most customers can't can't build it on their own they're going to want to consume it so companies like Salesforce Adobe service now Nvidia paler and Oracle are interesting um because you're going to be looking at their services Revenue much more than before so and the other piece that's going to be important is really a MAG seven rotation if you're afraid to get into all seven well then what you're going to do is move out of Nvidia meta Microsoft and Apple and go into Amazon Tesla and Google and play that for the rest of the year is that what you're advising um yes definitely if you're thinking about that but I'm in all seven of the mag s so that's a different game um but we're also looking at IPO markets and that's going to be very interesting on the tech side there are a lot of IPOs coming you see it on the data brick side you see Discord Clara you see stripe chime on the fintech side they're also going to be big there so people are going to want to play that game as well going into 2025 uh the other thing to think about as well is the fact that m&as are going to be on the rise and a lot of these AI companies are only going to be able to grow by acquiring more data sets by acquiring more scale and you're going to see the m&a game for possible Acquisitions um from the big players in AI okay so that's an interesting play too if if you get into m&a look you you got to question whether some of these big top tech companies are actually going to be able to get bigger because even though m&a is expected to rise big Tech may be facing some similar problems coming from a new Trump Administration where would you focus when it comes to mergers and Acquisitions where would you think there would be deals that could be done and and and maybe some move for room for some of these stocks to move up well there's an interesting thing that's going on you're either at a trillion dollars of market cap or you don't get to play at scale and there are a couple companies that are sitting just about 500 billion you see the oracles and the broadc coms and they used to grow through acquisition maybe they're going to be more acquisitive and then you see another group of tech companies that are sitting at 250 billion and those are the names like service and IBM uh and Adobe and Salesforce it would be interesting to see if a banker puts together a play to bring some of this consolidation in the 250 billion Market to go compete with the trillion doll market cap players no thanks so much for that it's been been awesome to be on uh you know the whole year look I to me it's all about handholding Investors through this AI Revolution and I think we're looking in our opinion this is still only the second inning of the nine-inning game and and everything we see from all of our spending is about the multiplier for every dollar spent on Godfather of AI gity on those chips there's a $8 to $10 multiplier across the rest of tech which is why I continue to believe that tech stocks are going to be up 25% into next year and it's only 1 p.m.
in this AI party that goes to 4:00 a.m. right and you've been saying that for some time I think you may have moved us an hour later I'm not sure along the way it started up at 9 p.m. now is 10 p.m. 10 it's 10 p.m. um you know Dan there is this question as to are investors going to start to demand uh to see a real return from all the investment that's been made the hundreds of billions frankly that will have been invested and will be invested in the coming year as well by the hyperscalers for example do you think there that demand will be made and will it be met look that's that's been the big question I think we started to see that inflection point with the Messi of paler cuz I think if you look at pal Ander that was the first one in the use case that we start to now see these things play out across Enterprise then Salesforce that was a huge moment what we saw from Benny off in terms of that last quarter I actually think software is going to be the key I think the use cases are expanding across the board I mean we have use cases and Enterprises that we're talking to up 5x in terms of deploying Ai and what I ultimately use cases even over the last 6 months and I I think that is going to be the key as this all plays out look two trillion of cap backs AI cacks next 3 years fighting that is going to be tough and that's what I continue to say the Bears can find AI in the spreadsheets I get it these companies have to execute but execution has been there now it's going to be about the rest of tech that's why we laid out those are the top 10 plays that we see for AI in 2025 um in terms of Enterprise AI in particular you think the two best software play as our palente here and Salesforce what are some examples of software companies that you are more doubtful of their AI potential I think at Doby you'd have to be a little more doubtful in terms of you know what they can do I think obviously still huge potential you know I think when you look at I think IBM's had a lot of success but to me it's really who are the ones proving it out it's paler it's Salesforce I think it's mongod DB it's snow Fleet I think Oracle is having a huge Renaissance of growth and then you're also going to see with Khan Don at the FTC you are going to see m&a Skyrocket across Tech these big Tech players are going to get stronger and they're going to get bigger and I think that's going to be a huge theme that plays out across 2025 is a strong get stronger Dan um just tell me why I shouldn't be concerned if I own paler that it trades at 50 times sales and that the Insiders have been selling hundreds of millions of dollars worth of stock in the last 6 weeks and it's gone vertical and they keep trying to Goose it by getting into different index it just feels like a very promotional situation for an admittedly strongly positioned company that just seems like it's become a little bit of a cult yeah look look Mike I definitely a bull bear debate it's almost reach Tesla like sort of emotional bull bear debate on pound tier look to me it's really about it's not about in the next year in terms of what this thing's trading at I view it as compound here be the next Oracle the next Salesforce if if that's true and I believe that's true then then this is a name that goes much higher from here in terms of what you're talking about I think that's why you got to focus on AIP as they prove out this sort of Enterprise use cases and can this be something that expands to ultimately 30 40% of this overall Revenue I think that's the key but I don't get too caught up in some of the noise I just focus on all of our checks and that's why talenter look the haters they ha it as a teenager as a stock despise as a senior citizen and I think this is a stock that has potential to be three digits and higher the tech sector is expected to grow 25% in 2025 fueled by the AI Revolution with key players like Nvidia Microsoft and paler leading the way analyst Dan Ives highlights the increasing adoption of AI across Enterprises predicting $2 trillion in AI related spending over the next 3 years companies like paler and Salesforce are at the Forefront driving software Innovation and expanding AI use cases while Manda and IPO activity are set to reshape the industry landscape despite opportunities challenges such as high valuations Insider selling and Regulatory pressures Loom investors are encouraged to focus on Aid driven software and service providers while monitoring consolidation among mid-tier Tech players aiming to compete with trillion doll giant which AI driven companies do you believe will dominate in 2025 how how should investors balance growth potential with valuation risks in the tech sector
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