저자: LarryFink · 외국인
요약 보기
래리 핑크 블랙록 CEO는 시장 타이밍보다 장기 보유가 중요하다고 강조하며, 현재 경기 사이클은 늦은 단계이고 세제개편으로 연장됐다고 진단한다. 실적 및 자금 흐름: 1분기 실적은 주당순이익 6.70달러(전년비 28%↑), 매출 36억 달러(16%↑)로 컨센서스를 상회했고 마진도 확대됐다. 1분기 순유입은 550억 달러 수준이며, 1월 이후 2~3월에는 업무가 둔화됐다고 설명했다. 리테일 자금은 ETF(iShares) 중심으로 유입이 컸다. 시장 타이밍과 장기 투자: 대부분의 투자자는 타이밍을 잘 맞추지 못하므로 시장에 계속 머무는 것이 핵심이라고 주장했다. 2008~2009년 위기 때 이탈한 투자자가 손해를 봤고, 기관투자자는 항상 투자 상태를 유지한다는 점을 강조했다. 중국: 중국 측은 인내심이 있고 협상 의지가 있으며, 금융시장 개방(외국 자산운용사 지분 51% 허용 등)이 진행 중이라고 언급했다. 중국 기술기업 CEO들은 최근 몇 년간 영업 환경이 개선됐다고 전했다. ESG 및 총기 이슈: 총기 관련 ESG 필터 상품을 만들었고, 고객 반응은 약 90:10 수준으로 블랙록 입장에 우호적이라고 밝혔다. ESG 수요는 전 세계적으로 증가 중이며 특히 미국에서 가장 크다고 설명했다. 금리 및 국채: 2년물 금리는 최근 약 2% 가까이 올랐으나 10년물은 거의 움직이지 않았다. 중앙은행의 저금리 기조와 인플레이션 완만함이 금리를 낮게 유지시키고 있으며, 장기 채권 수요는 여전히 강하다고 봤다. 미 연준이 점진적 금리 인상 경로에 있으며 수익곡선(yield curve) 형태를 우려한다고 언급했다. 미국 재정적자는 10년간 8조 달러 확대될 수 있고, 외국인 국채 수요 약화 가능성을 걱정했다. 다만 일본 국채 대비 미국채 수요는 여전히 실재한다고 봤다. 리스크: 무역전쟁 가능성, 재정적자 확대에 따른 금리 상승 압력, 외국인 국채 수요 감소, 수익곡선 변화가 주요 위험 요인으로 제시됐다. 출연자 전망: 래리 핑크는 미국 주식은 장기적으로 계속 보유하라는 입장을 유지했다. 개별 자산의 1~3개월 단기 방향에 대한 명확한 예측은 없었다.
다듬은 글
BlackRock reporting earnings this morning. Larry Fink, BlackRock's chairman and CEO, joins us this morning beating on the top and bottom lines EPS of $6.70 per share. That's up 28% year-over-year revenue $3.6 billion, which is 16% year-over-year. And then we were talking earlier the margin has expanded rather than contracted, which is something that I think the the industry at least over the long term or at least analysts and investors have worried that in your business the margin is going to compress.
And then we had all this volatility, which I thought last night when I was thinking about this might actually be difficult for you. None of None of which seems to be true. Well, volatility did change the whole dimension of the I would say of the markets. Um big paradigm shift and you know, we went into January very affluent over the tax reform.
I think we all went to Davos with incredible enthusiasm. In Davos or a lot of enthusiasm the day and the day the high sign by the way. And that was a high sign. That's what I was going to say. Um And and and so we did see a slowdown in business in in February, in March from the huge volumes of flows that we saw in January.
Um but I think there's a big myth about you know, people worried about rising interest rates. We manage $2 trillion of fixed income. Over 60% of those assets are liability match. And so you're not you don't see that type of big change. We also saw some big rebalancing out of equities into fixed income because equities rallied so much and people were rebalancing into their model.
But probably probably the bigger surprise for us is we saw huge inflows and huge outflows. Um we had one client who sold a big pool of money for an M&A transaction. We had other clients were selling uh assets to for more cap backs. We saw some other some uh clients selling assets for rising stock repurchases.
So it was a combination of everything, but nevertheless we did see consistent interest. We're seeing more and more interest in global investing more What was the What was the retail picture like? I'm looking at 17 billion 17 billion of retail then you had $35 billion going into iShares 35 iShares, 17 retail three net positive in institutional, but that masked quite a bit.
Uh What did that retail What did that retail number look like a year ago? Uh Or the iShares range. Same range. Yeah, iShares was larger. Was it Yes. That's what I was going to say. I would have thought that the volatility would have No. No? No, we actually had a billion and a half of net new flows in alternatives, 2 billion of new commitments.
We had a couple billion dollars of inflows in cash. So it was across the board. Larry, there's always a fear that the retail money comes into the market right before the bear market begins. And with $17 billion of retail inflows, I'm wondering where you think we are in the cycle and what you think that risk is cuz so many Americans missed out on the last decade of growth in equities.
have been consistent on this show saying you should be 100% in equities. You should always be invested in in the marketplace. My my uh chairman letter in my in the annual report this talks about the long-termism of investing in equities. Um I'm not sure what inning we're in. I mean obviously we are late in an economic cycle.
It is being extended by the tax reform. Let's be clear. So we may have been in the seventh or eighth inning if you want to put it in that vernacular and it's extended into extra innings. Um But I think we spend too much time talking about market timing and our our big thrust is focusing on being in the market all the time.
Because if you're most of us are not good enough at market timing. And for those who have been in the market stayed in the market after the 2008 crash into 2009 really benefited. And those who ran away from the market really you know, were quite harmed by that action. Um and so at the time when you had the greatest fear that was probably the time to buy the most and so the key for investors is staying in the market and you know, that's the big difference between institutional and retail.
Institutional market you know, they stay in the market. They're invested all the time. Um You spent a lot of time talking to foreign trade ministers and finance ministers. When people talk about a trade war with China not just on the tariff side, but what do you hear from them from the Chinese on on the other possibilities of what this could mean?
I was in China 2 weeks ago. Um I would say the Chinese are very patient. I think they're willing to have a conversation with the US. Uh at the same time they are liberalizing their markets now. Um the governor of the central bank you know, spoke this morning or last night uh our time um on the expansion of the Chinese market for financial institutions.
They're expanding the limits of how much foreign participation will be. Um Starting in June asset managers will have an opportunity to have 51%. Uh so they're they're making changes maybe not as fast as our administration is looking for. the tweets? This is something they've been promising for quite a long time.
now happening. And CEOs are are rightfully skeptical of that, but you think that that it will really happen this year. It will definitely happen. you read How do they read the tweets? I wouldn't know. Do you Do you see They read them I do you know But I assume that they Do they say But do they Do they Do they say we're very patient and we understand the way they Patient We're the ones that have to be that have been patient.
Let me let me ask you this. So they know with a wink and a nod among themselves, they know that some of their practices could not last forever. Do they justify that by them They're coming from a different place than we are and they got to do things for their people and and I understand that that it's tough to do that.
So but they must know that there are certain things that just don't fly and if you're talking about a completely fair playing ground. So I understand you're saying they're patient, but they know they got to come into the real world someday and play by the rules. I I I had dinners in China with many of the top US CEOs.
Just all just just us alone when we were there. I would tell you the practices of China were far worse according to them five and 10 years ago. Indeed many of them said the practice the last two three years some CEOs that been on Squawk Box their practices been totally changed. It's a much more open.
And these are some tech companies in two in two instances two CEOs from the tech side told me that the the manner in which they are operating, the manner in which they are supposed to be um interacting with the domestic companies have changed. They have more opportunity to grow. So I would tell you they are saying on the ground level and I'm not there yet cuz I'm inhibited still, but these are you know, tech companies who are there they they said they've seen changes.
But directly to your question, I think they know they have to negotiate. I I want to start a quick conversation now and then we're going to slip in a break, but let's just I just want to begin with one question, which is this. Um you have been very proactive and public um on BlackRock's stance on how you're approaching guns and social issues and other things and I'm curious if that has had any impact on the positive or negative side when it comes to your earnings this last quarter and how it What it's meant for your business.
I think we have more engagement with more clients than ever before. Some of that engagement is on ESG issues. Um Because of the specific gun issue, we did canvas our clients throughout the world about you know, are they Do they want to have a portfolio composition that that filters out firearms? Um and we concluded there some investors who do.
Most investors did not. We have to always remember this is not BlackRock's money. We're an advisor to. Our job is to try to help them navigate these complex issues. They're the money owners. And so what we have done after canvassing, we did you know, create these other ETFs that have these type of filters in these small cap products.
Um unquestionably we are seeing more ESG demand worldwide and probably the biggest net change is demand in the US. Um and so has that helped us? I would say unquestionably being part of a dialogue trying to help them navigate these complex issues. to negative calls, emails, info customers How many customers have said to you, you know what?
Larry, I I'm not doing business with you guys. I don't even want I don't I don't want you involved in this. I'm taking my money and going elsewhere. And how many people have How many people have come to you and said I'm really glad you're doing this and I actually want to do more business with you as a function of it.
I would say it was 90/10 90/10 in favor of what of what we are doing. And maybe it's 95/5. Okay, we got to slip in a quick break, but we will continue this conversation with Larry Fink. we're going to talk about adjusting else. Well, apparently we're going to talk about something else. But we will be back with him in just a little bit.
We're back with the head of the largest world's largest money manager Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock. $6.3 trillion under management, 55 billion of inflows during the quarter. So we were just talking off camera. So 2 trillion is fixed income, 4.3 trillion equity. So, just talking in the past we we've had lots of discussions like everybody has about how long um we stayed easy and globally, I guess really.
I mean since 2008 or 2009. And you know, we thought the 10 year would be again, we thought the 10 year would be at 3% and it's still not and we still don't know if it's going to get there again. So, a couple of years ago we've been you know, this is sort of a it's not it's episodic. These aren't just these, you know, all of all of your appearances aren't they don't stand on their own.
So, there was a time where you were concerned about savers and insurance companies and pension about how low interest rates have been and I got the impression that that you thought that maybe central bankers were keeping things too low for too long and that it was going to cause some dislocations, but here we are and market forces did not cause things to did not cause rates to go up yet and I don't understand why and I don't know if it's any easier to help savers even today.
Well, rates are up a little bit obviously especially in the two year area. I mean they're up close to 2% you know, from the lows of 30 40 basis points. Right. Uh obviously the 10 year is barely budged. Right. Um savers are still being harmed by or we some people call it financial repression. Um the central banks are are still focusing on obviously the quality of the these economies and they're also very mindful of inflation.
Inflation up until now has been very very muted and now it's starting to pick up. And and I do believe you're going to we're going to continue to see the Federal Reserve on this path. has it been that that interest rates it's it's as simple as they're pegged to to inflation and inflation has to this day still not really come back to the extent people thought it would years ago.
Is that really why rates have stayed low I would say generally that, but also they stay have stayed low because the as we moved to more ownership in financial assets, as we've expanded capital markets worldwide, we're seeing more global demand for financial assets. This is one of the reasons why BlackRock has been able to grow continuously.
But but the demand for long dated credit is unbelievable. Still. Still, insurance companies are still short their liability. Their liability as I said, most investors are liability match and yet many of them are their liabilities are longer than their assets and so every time you see the interest rates perk up a little or credit spreads widen, they jump in.
Comes back. people that thought that the Fed missed an opportunity two or three years ago to to raise rates. In in hindsight, was the Fed actually right to hold off Well, they're not holding off. They're actually on a path. The key that they have to be mindful of is the shape of the yield curve which I talked about in January.
That's something that is very worrisome. But we stayed at emergency levels almost crisis levels with you know, unemployment dropping through 5% but how did it is it because the rest of the world is not with us and now money comes from there and in our bond prices get bid up, I guess. That's a major reason because we have not seen any change in behaviors really in the Bank of Japan.
In fact, Kuroda-san said maybe a couple more years of this behavior. it just makes me worry that if our interest rates are being dictated by conditions in other parts of the world that aren't as favorable as ours that that that isn't good for us that somehow we can Well, it's good for the US Treasury because 40% of our debt is financed But doesn't it cause dislocations and bubbles and things it could, yes.
What is the health of the US Treasury market cuz the US needs to borrow a trillion dollars this year and the strength of the auctions has been inconsistent. You know, I'm very worried about where our deficits are going. The CBO came out with 33 billion dollar deficits 33 trillion dollars of deficits in 10 years.
That's up from 25 trillion dollars the last time I I saw that. So, you know, an expansion of our deficit by 8 trillion dollars. I think Joe, you're right. The problem we're going to have is with the pressure with the pressure of the constant auctions, you know, I would clearly say to you we are going we may have rates moving faster than they even the Federal Reserve wants in the future.
If we if we start seeing less participation by foreigners in our that's something that I worry about. When we talk about trade wars, I worry about that other side of it. Are they going to continue to buy our US Treasuries? Most people say no way that will never happen cuz it'll impact them. There are other ways to affect if you're going to do tit for tat.
But these are things that should be part of our narrative and part of our dialogue. We are the largest debtor nation who is dependent on foreign ownership of our debt. Japan, they have a worse debt to GDP than the US, but 90% of their deficit is financed domestically. Only 60% of our deficits are financed domestically and you know, I don't know what the forecast is.
If the CBO is right about how large our deficits are going to be in the future, we're going to have more dependency on foreign ownership of our seeing those buyers step away yet. No. No, you're not. I mean you're It's all noise right now, but not the the the arbitrage for foreigners to own our debt versus their debt as Joe was describing is real and it's alive.
It's better for them to own US debt than their debt. All right. Thanks for your time today. Thank you. Thank you. Thanks guys. This is fun. .
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