저자: Kevin · 외국인
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테슬라 주가 급등 배경으로 공매도 스퀴즈와 낮은 변동성 후 상승 패턴을 제시. 인도량 자체보다 실적 가이던스와 마진(리튬 가격 하락) 기대를 강조. 장단기 금리차(2s10s) 역전 해소 스티프닝이 14일 미만이면 눌림목 매수, 이상 지속 시 BTC 숏 프록시와 현금 비중 확대를 고려하겠다는 전략 제시. 테슬라 실적발표(7/17) 전후 콜옵션 매수 구간 언급.
다듬은 글
folks the Tesla stock explosion is happening we've been talking about it for a while now the question though isn't what do we do to Pat ourselves on the back the question is what does this mean going forward first it's worth noting I've been tweeting about this for a while at real meet Kevin on X I said on uh May 21st there appears to be a short squeeze that's starting to get that's getting started will hit $220 very soon I also tweeted that once we break the $200 psychological sell order book we'll probably pop up to 220 after that now of course we've got a deliveries Catalyst tomorrow honestly the Catalyst doesn't even really matter whether whether the deliveries are somewhere between 420 which would be funny or somewhere between 440 it doesn't really matter what matters is that the worst is behind Tesla you're going back to growth yes year-over-year declines but quarter over quarter gains we're going back to growth we're going back into that strong economy and folks are finally looking saying huh Tesla's pretty dang cheap compared to everything else that's so dang expensive so you're starting to get upgrades like Wells Fargo oh maybe the worst is over still a little underweight but uh it's not as bad as it used to be exactly the bad news is baked in it's the same thing that we saw on the volatility candles the volatility sticks were extremely low on Tesla we made a video on it we talked about it the first uh maybe like there was somewhere around it was the first week of June or like June 9th or something like that June 10th where like volatility is ridiculously low his historically Tesla has gained 1.2% per day for the next 2 months roughly I'm roughly estimating here you could watch the video that I made on that either in the course member live stream or the later video we did on the uh Public Live but when volatility hits such a low Tesla goes up thereafter and you don't even need many catalysts to make it happen so I don't really care about deliveries tomorrow in fact if anything we kind of just pre-priced in a lot of the deliveries news so it's entirely possible that no matter what deliver news we get tomorrow for Tesla the stock just ends up moving down I mean in order for us to actually move up after a 6% Tesla day you'd really have to beat all of the estimates if you beat all of the estimates tomorrow and you come in with some like crazy like oh my gosh it's going to be you know 450 460 number hats off let's go Tesla we're going to 300 I don't think that's happening I think the data and the analysts are probably uh you know the range will probably end up being right I'm not saying the analysts or usually right I'm just saying the range will probably be right we'll have delivery somewhere between 415 and 435,000 is my guess if I had a pick I'd go midp point I go 425 and quite frankly 5K cars plus or minus in either direction even 10K cars in either direction makes a lick of a difference for Tesla it does not matter I actually kind of hope that they come in a little soft so I can buy myself some swing trade calls see there are day trade calls where you could try to pull momentum like we did this morning on the market open live stream where you're looking for momentum and then there are swing trade calls which are usually fundamental-based so you do sort of 90 180 day swing trades I usually prefer 45 to 90 days for my swing trades and intraday for day trading uh so uh with that said for Tesla after we tax loss harvested in uh my fund which this is not an advertisement for my fund it's just so you know I'm putting my money where my mouth is after we tax loss harvested and we went back in where we left we're like way up now and our allocation is pretty dang heavy in the thing which is awesome and again this isn't a pitch for that it's just simply to talk about it from a fundamental point of view not a Trader's Point of View been very excited about Tesla so Tesla probably right now is somewhere I I don't know exactly okay again it's not a pitch for it uh probably somewhere around 16 to 18% of an allocation uh that went down for to zero for a period of time which is great we avoided the mess from 170 to 140 tax loss harvested back in boom now we're up okay great so the question now becomes Where Do We Go From Here well first I'd like to look at tarted paying attention to uh just this morning I mean the inverted yield curve I've been paying attention to for a while but there's something I noticed this morning this morning I noticed that the inverted yield curve the twos over the 10 is starting to steepen substantially we've moved about 18 basis points in uh really the last like six days that's a big move at the same time we're seeing rates going up so you're getting this sort of bearish steepener on the yield curve and we've had this happen before we had this happen a few times we had this happen I'll give you some dates here and you can look it up yourself and compare it to the stocks that you like December 15th through January 15th September of last year 20th through October 6th July 24th through October or August 6 during those periods of the steepening the reeep in of the yield curve what we actually ended up seeing was the NASDAQ was flat roughly flat in other words even though you had this shortterm steepening you didn't actually see that much pain in the market so shorter periods of steepening not that big of a deal it's when you get these extended periods of steepening that's when things get a little frustrating for example if you look all the way from uh the beginning H it's probably yeah well let me see here if you look between July third of last year and about October 31st that was painful that was basically NASDAQ correction territory and you had a 3month period of steepening but if you get these little fluctuations of steepening that only last a week or two weeks it's usually not a big deal it only becomes a big deal if the steepening continues so this now gives us a path forward something that we could think about in terms of all right how do we set up our portfolio for investing and I'm going to draw this out to make this as simple as possible because I understand we start hearing about yield curves and all this crazy stuff things can start getting a little bit confusing all right so here's what we're going to do we're going to write down on a piece of paper a game plan and this is this is my take okay so this is not personalized Financial advice this is some dude on the internet making an opinion all right if the yield curve deepening we're going to call it remains under 14 days so we got another week to go of this you're probably going to buy the dip on a diversified uh set of ETFs that or you know or whatever you want you buy the dip on whatever you want again I'm not pitching anything in this video uh so buy the dip on whatever you want and uh enjoy the fact that you're getting some you know relaxation here on some of the ones that have run really well some of the names that I really like right now uh I really like apple Amazon and Tesla right now I don't love Nvidia as much but I still have some Nvidia exposure but Amazon apple and Tesla I think are your your heavy weights I think uh Amazon is going to benefit substantially off of artificial intelligence by actually running a more efficient ship I think apple is going to benefit off on device Ai and I think Tesla has the best and most real AI that exists now you know uh sort of my tier tws I might consider something like trade desk or paler for soft Ware directional plays that that could benefit but these are options that I think of now keep in mind something that some have been asking about is hey do is is it still time to hedge Bitcoin uh as sort of a way to hedge the market well I mentioned a few weeks ago that Bitcoin was likely to head to 58,000 it went to 58,000 and it bounced right off of that and it actually is up pretty nicely in the last 24 hours here so I think in order for you to go bearish you really need this yield curve steepening yield curve steepening to occur for more than 14 days if you get that yield curve steepening for more than 14 days that's when I'm going to be looking at some form of a BTC short again or a BTC short proxy you know like something else that falls when Bitcoin Falls like coinbase uh and that's also where I'm going to be a little bit more interested in uh maybe increasing cash position right because over here you're by the dib over here you're increasing cash it just depends on how long this steepening process is going to last so uh that's something I'm very closely paying attention to now as far as Tesla individually as long as we stay in this yield curve uh period over here we're we're we're not steepening that much maybe we start going back to the zigzags that we're used to uh here's my projection for Tesla so uh let's draw it like this okay so you've got 88 is over here you got 71 right here now you do have Tesla earnings as well A lot's going to come down to those delivery figures but Tesla earnings date I want to say it's like July 17th okay there it is July 17th okay so right in this window right here 72 right in this window you're still going to have some level of fear uh and uncertainty mostly because people are going to be worried that even if we get good delivery numbers or if we have bad delivery numbers everybody's going to be wondering okay what's margin margin margin margin margin okay my guess is that the time to go YOLO calls is right here YOLO calls uh right between that earnings date so really like the 718 which would be the next day and 88 now it's possible that after deliveries tomorrow if you're like bullish Tesla you kind of want a bad number tomorrow or like a number the Market's going to respond to bearishly because what I would consider is longer calls because we should be relatively clear with our Catalyst I understand earnings are coming up but we should be able to take the numbers from the last earnings report apply them to this one and assume that margins if anything have improved rather than disimproved now In fairness we don't know how much uh those financing offers cost so that's a risk I do think that commodity prices have started to fall so I'm going to fact check myself on that uh since their February High yeah they definitely have uh take a look at this right here so uh you actually sorry not the February High you started rising in February you peaked out in May now it's a little unfortunate because that's the middle of Q2 right here so you probably did have a little bit higher cost here sadly let me look at lithium prices quickly and if I look at these I'm going to get an idea of how those battery margins have been in so I'm going to zoom out a bit here okay yeah I mean if anything we've just gone down on uh on these you could see right here let's zoom out a little bit there we go I'll hide myself for a moment there we go so yeah capped out peaked out really at the end of q1 it's sort of been down since then end of June you really had a nice fall on lithium pricing so hopefully we'll see some of this flow through on Tesla margins it makes me bullish I think the Bottom's already been priced in a long time ago obviously the chart already shows us that but we've been talking about that as well so uh that's a little bit of a strategy that I that I look at again I think you buy the dip as long as we have a yield curve steepening for less than 14 days let me give you the exact date again as to when we started we started steepening on the 25th today we're on the 7th so you're only about 6 days in once you get about 14 days you might start getting a little bit more fear pricing into the market and mind you that when uh the yield curve seens for less than 14 days yes you get a little bit of a flattening in the cues we've already seen that here the flattening of the qes it's exactly what's been going on what we just don't want is this longer term dip that we had uh over here see this sort of 3month dip over here in the cues this is what happens when you have a longer term yield curve inversion uh or rather yield curve steepening we've been inverted in the yield curve you know on the yield curve for quite a while now I'll tell you exactly when we inverted just so you have that data we inverted back on oh wow it's been 2 years July 1st 2022 it's been two years to the date so we are now celebrating two years of yield curve inversion pretty remarkable so uh again to to bottom line my strategy going forward as long as the yield curve stays down my my long-term portfolio is by the dip Amazon Apple Tesla some trade desk Palante here for trading I'm going to be interested in longer calls if we get some negativity tomorrow by the dip it's possible depends how I want to play this it's possible that at open though you go puts and you sort of ride the wave down but that would be more of on a day trade right uh otherwise I think uh some longer calls could be interesting some YOLO calls could be very interesting between the earnings date and uh Robo taxi day uh and then I do think you're going to end up having having a a sell the news after the robo taxi day you almost always do but then again you know if everybody's expecting it maybe it doesn't actually end up happening so I don't know uh but those are my thoughts on the market right now on the bull bear scale I still put myself around 6 and a half on the bull bear scale which is still 6 and A2 maybe 6.7 nothing's really changed over the last week so uh and and really the the whole political landscape I don't think is going to make much of a difference to the market for a hot minute it's going to be a while we still got you know almost 5 months to go before the election which is crazy to think about actually we do we have 5 months and like 6 days which is wild so anyway these are just some general thoughts on the market some strategies that I'm thinking and hopefully this is helpful to you none of this is obviously personalized Financial advice I hope you can go make money out there love you all
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