저자: Kevin · 외국인
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2019년 8월 미중 무역협상 결렬과 JPMorgan의 12개월 내 경기침체 확률 40% 상향을 배경으로, 다국적기업·해외/신흥국 인덱스·농업·에너지 관련주 회피를 권고하고, 채권·미국 내 기업·부동산(30년 고정금리 대출)을 선호한다고 주장. 금·은은 생산성이 없다며 제외적 언급. 부채 상환, 신용동결, 교육 등을 준비사항으로 제시.
다듬은 글
if you want to make money in 2019 this is the video for you because I'm about to tell you what to sell what to buy and what to do and this is of course all in response to the fact that trade talks between yes Donald Trump and China have virtually fallen apart leading JPMorgan Chase to increase their recession probability within the next 12 months to 40% folks this is an emergency now there are four types of investments that you should absolutely consider a selling at this point but before you do anything and keep in mind you are taking advice from somebody making a YouTube video I also happen to have my face on a coffee mug with a plastic straw and cold coffee and I sell don't sue me bro shirts so remember this is for entertainment purposes only and hashtag don't sue me bro but first the very first thing you should consider getting out of or not holding much of right now are multi national corporations these are going to be companies like Apple Tesla microchip manufacturers Nvidia any of these companies selling to a bunch of different countries are probably going to and they've already been getting slapped because of this trade war and this also extends pretty weirdly to companies like Best Buy who source a lot of their products from China and even companies like Wynn casinos and resorts who focus heavily on sort of the Chinese demographic now think about this practically a lot of Apple products are put together in China Tesla wants to have 30% of its vehicle production done in China especially once they open their Giga factory three folks the trade war is not going to help any of these companies second thing not to invest in right now in my opinion any kind of foreign index funds look I know buy and hold is great I know the conventional wisdom is buy your index funds diversify into multiple different index funds so you're protected and look I'm a big fan of wealth front in fact I've got their app I have money in their investment account but I have to say I'm a little frustrated right now because the wealthfront Robo advised index fund has a 51% exposure to foreign markets and developing markets and the last thing I want my money invested in right now is in anything that's exposed to global risks while a trade war is going on and a global slowdown is going on so foreign know thank you right now I'm gonna be taking that money and investing it instead into solely United states-based things now that could be bad I'm not diversifying enough I get it that's just where my mindset is right now and I encourage you to think about that as well because as we know the United States is pushing strong right now in terms of its economy relative to everybody else doesn't mean we're having a field day it's just throwing a whole lot better than everybody else okay think of it like the best of the worst now just a heads up in my opinion this also affects the sp500 heavily because what are the biggest companies in the S&P 500 well your multinationals now the third thing that seems to be getting hammered right now our agricultural stocks that trade is sort of on the global marketplace we'll talk about some other positives in a moment but AG stocks are getting hit especially since China is now reneging on their agreement to buy more agricultural products from the United States obviously because Trump slapped them with more taxes and the fourth thing getting hammered right now are any kind of energy index funds or sectors and not exactly sure why but I'm just seeing you get hammered great now we know what to look out for in terms of possibly what not to invest in multinational corporations the index funds for foreign or developing markets AG and energy stocks and indices so be careful again not saying you can't go have a field day day trading you gas but just stay vigilant okay now I hate to sound jaded but in my opinion this is probably good information for you to keep in the back of your mind even if at this point Trump and China hammer out some kind of trade agreement keep in mind that actually both sides following up on that agreement is probably going to lead to a little bit of a rocky and intense Road for the next few years so best-case scenario this trade conflict just resolves worst case scenario would keeps falling apart and middle case scenario we strike a deal but it's kind of hard to enforce or you know everybody's kind of starting to cut corners which in my opinion really makes me think that the four things I just said not to invest in are things that I'm not going to be excited about anytime at least in the next few years unless some things really change big time I think we've got growth left to milk in the United States and I think that is what we should be milking and so that's why I'm going to recommend the following investments now in times of uncertainty probably the best thing to invest in would be a0 fie fie dello t index fund for bonds bonds are probably going to see the best returns anytime there is a conflict like this they're certainly going to spike as they usually do that tends to be a more safe sort of investment I'm not a big fan of bonds personally because to me I prefer different investments but they tend to be relatively safe now I'm going to give an honorable mention here before I go on to my next two favorite investments right now honorable mention is obviously going to go out to gold and silver and precious metals although I'm not a big fan of gold and silver or precious metals mostly because you can't depreciate them they're not productive assets that is you can't really do anything with them and overall I'm just siding with Warren Buffett that you know what I'd rather have something that worst case scenario I could turn around and do something with for example if I owned a car at least I can turn around and rent it out to uber for uber taxi but if I want to borrow gold I could look at it you know I could I could kiss it but I can't really do anything with it unless I want to melt it into stuff to like wear but then that's also not really productive right now aside from bonds my next a favorite investment for low-risk and I know this might sound crazy but it's real estate and the reason I say it might sound crazy is because I'm sure a lot of us think back to the last financial crisis which I read about every single day this is like the hardest book of my life to get through but I read it every single day and I learned more and more about the last financial crisis and now the biggest things that really keep coming out of this book are just the fact that most of the people who got hurt hard in real estate had crappy loans they got teaser interest rates that blew up their monthly payment after six months to a year forcing them into refinancing and of course when that didn't work foreclosure bad bad variable rate loans ninja loans no doc loans this is terrible crap so in my opinion the best way to prevent this kind of global risk right now is by securing 30-year fixed-rate financing on property whether there are apartment buildings duplexes triplexes single-family houses condos doesn't matter in high quality areas how do you know if an area is a high quality area if the population is going up it's probably a desirable area and you can easily find this just google the county that you live in followed by the word population and you'll know if you're on the up-and-up or if you're on the down but one of my favorite explanations for why I love real estate so much is because no matter what happens in the short term if I can lock in 30-year financing in a safe way where I know the tenants can pay it all off for me I know I can afford it if I'm gonna live in there I can get 30-year fixed rate debt and I know I can make the payment that's good if rates go down I know I can refinance and get a lower rate if rates go up I'm good I'm locked into a 30-year loan there's no chance the bank calls me up and says hey yeah trade war yeah problems with Trump we're gonna have to ask you to pay off your house it doesn't work it's not gonna happen it's there as long as you make the payment while your tenants are paying you're good so real estate to me is a really really nice hedge especially if you can get wedge deals or below market deals now there are people on the Internet of that say that our money is going to experience hyperinflation during the next market crash and that the only thing you should buy is gold because the paper is going to be worthless kind of like back to Germany where people were burning the deutsche mark because the money was worth less than firewood yeah there there are people talking that kind stuff which in my opinion if that happens I still think real estate is an excellent investment because it doesn't matter what I'm going to be getting paid to rent in people still need a place to live and if they want to pay me in bread or Bitcoin I'm still going to have a productive asset that in my opinion is still going to give me an equal value on my investment that's just why I love real estate people need a place to live now before I tell you my third favorite thing to invest in right now do also 'll be going live today in our private live streams just like I do a twice a week helping you analyze your real estate deals and filling in the gaps of the over 350 lectures teaching you how to invest in real estate now the third thing to invest in in these crazy times in my opinion us-based stocks now I legitimately mean US companies ones that are operating in the United States and are selling in the United States here's a good one Tyson meat stocks going up despite all this uncertainty that also brings up the topic of beyond meat now I haven't done a lot of research on to beyond meat I probably should leave me a comment down below if you want me to research beyond meat and talk about it but that might be another good one because they are a Los Angeles based company selling heavily within the United States because arguably sustainable foods are going to sell the best in the United States anyway at least for the time being as I don't think the rest of the world cares as much as the United States does about that now this is also going to open the door to investing into building companies companies that produce wood in America like Idaho based wood companies or Home Depot Lowe's companies like this could be good although we did just see a lot of layoffs at Lowe's again just things to research oh and I forgot to mention in case you want to meet me in person make sure to check out the link below for my events coming up in Seattle Austin San Francisco and Miami now let's talk about step 3 things that you should really be focused on doing right now we've talked about what not to invest in we've talked about the things that are good to invest in in times like this now let's talk about things that you should be doing right now so with things the way they are right now what should you really be focused on doing well by far and this should go without saying the number one thing you should be doing is if you have debt paid off why do I say pay off debt because I want you to be ready I want you to be ready to strike on good deals I don't care if you're buying beyond me I don't care if you're buying you gas I don't care if you're buying real estate or gold and silver I respect everybody's opinion but the best thing to do right before a crash is pay off debt so that you have money you could use to go shopping when it's time to go shopping and anytime I see red days in the marketplace I consider it a sale day that's kind of like this green suit I got it when it was rent now that it was on sale okay okay bad jokes the next thing you should really do if you have not yet is please freeze your credit I know this might sound really redundant to a lot of you but seriously if you do not have your credit frozen you are asking to have your identity stolen and don't kid yourself your identity is out there if Experian and Equifax can get hacked your name your social and your date of birth are floating around in the universe and it's just a matter of time before you get your identity stolen an identity insurance and monitoring is going to be great when the problems already happened and your identity is stolen you have to deal with all that crap but I personally am a fan of prevention so I like freezing my credit so that I can prevent that from happening now once I have my debt balances down my credits frozen the next thing that I'd be focusing on doing right now is educating myself on absolutely anything that I could learn about making more money and investing to make more money I think you're better off just literally throwing your money into a high-yield savings account be it betterment or wealthfront right now and getting educated to do whatever you need to do to get educated because when the market hits a bottom if it's going to crash anytime soon which I still don't think the United States market is going to see any kind of crazy bottom at least not for the next four years I highly recommend spend the next four years get educated like so that way you can save yourself up to go shopping like crazy when everything's red for real now folks as always feel free to follow me on instagram at me Kevin you're welcome to send me a DM there I try my best to get back to everybody that Instagram DMS meet I am a very slow on Instagram though so if you need me ASAP link below if you get in're pretty much guaranteed to get an answer from me twice a week in our private live streams or in our discord channel where I do my best to respond to absolutely everybody's question for me ]
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