저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
브로드컴을 6단계 프레임워크(고객가치·단위경제·TAM·경쟁·밸류에이션·리스크)로 평가. 영업이익률 등 수익성은 우수, 밸류에이션은 과도하지 않은 수준, VMware 인수(610억달러)와 경기침체 리스크를 주요 위험으로 제시. 결론은 '매수 가능'이라는 장기 관점의 긍정적 평가.
다듬은 글
all right in this video I'm going to answer the question is broadcom stock a buy so you're going to want to stay tuned to the end of this video because you're going to get the answer so let's get right into it all right so the first step in my framework looks at customer value and broadcom Designs develops and supplies analog and digital semiconductor chips used in wireless communication devices Enterprise storage and industrial equipment and revenue has grown from 2.3 billion in 2012 to 27 and a half billion in 2021 of course this was partly fueled by the acquisition by by a major acquisition that jump started Revenue growth and looking at a net promoter score of negative nine if we look at the scale here on netps of negative 9 shows that it needs Improvement it's on this red scale here and that's not good news for investors because if the company is not earning is is not highly regarded by its customers then that could be an opening for competitors to jump in and take market share the next step in my framework looks at unit economics and you know for broadcom it's got excellent and Rising profit margin it's average the gross profit margin of 50 percent in the last decade and ebit average 20 percent in that same time in 2021 those were even higher GPM of 61 percent and ebit of 32 percent perhaps this could explain why it's got such a low net promoter score maybe customers are just like man you keep charging us so much for your products and um equipment that we just feel like you're extracting all of that value from us and we're we feel like yeah you know we're buying your stuff but we're not too thrilled about it because we're having to pay so much for it uh that could be one argument but it's great news for investors that broadcom is able to extract such excellent margins and the next step in my framework looks at total addressable market and according to statista the global semiconductor industry generated 555 billion in sales in 2021 that's expected to be higher in 2022 and for the foreseeable future semiconductor chips are you know getting increasing demand worldwide you know in in smartphones in computers in electric vehicles driverless cars all across the industry all across several Industries more of these chips are being needed and so the industry is already massive it's going to continue growing and so that's great news for investors The Next Step looks at competition and the semiconductor industry is characterized by large Capital investments in manufacturing and research and development this is where the competition is is is investing in these foundries in these manufacturing facilities in research and development to come up with the next best thing and to come up with large economies and scale in that way able to sell your products at lower prices this isn't an industry where it's you know the competition is based on who can have the best marketing campaign who can have the best sales force right it's mostly based in these Capital investments in in manufacturing and research and development so it's difficult to usurp existing players that already have proven processes that deliver Innovation at scale so if you've already proven yourself in these in these processes you've you've jumped several levels in the learn learning curve it's going to be difficult for a new company to come in and reach the level you're at and take your market share take your business and this is good news for investors the next step in my framework looks at valuation and broadcom looking at price to earnings and price to free cash flow is you know the stock is inexpensive I can't say that it's cheap if we look at its price to free price to earnings of 22.9 going back uh before 2018 it's you know it's not the highest it's been it was trading at over 60 and it's it's almost a third of its its peak but you were able to buy it at a lower valuation you know before 2019 going back to 2018 for almost an entire year you could have bought it at this value so it's not the cheapest it's been but it's close to it's it's lower levels and then if we look at the price the free cash flow of 14.8 it's about the average price it's traded for going back to 2018 you know it's been higher at over 20.
it's been lower at below 10 but this is right about the average if we draw a line through here it's about the average valuation in terms of price to free cash flow so it's not expensive and it's not cheap the final step in my framework looks at risks and one of the primary risks I note here is that broadcom is in the middle of acquiring VMware it paid 61 billion dollars for this acquisition it's pending regulatory approval and the digesting of this acquisition could prove Troublesome Acquisitions are always a risky Endeavor so and this one is so expensive 61 billion dollars so this could be a you know a Troublesome area some unknown unknowns could come out of this this is something investors should keep being keep an eye on and of course the potential recession in large economies worldwide cut slow Enterprise spending on Tech infrastructure this could be a headwind for broadcom although of all the semiconductor companies broadcom has been kind of an outlier in that it hasn't noted major headwinds to its business several other semiconductor companies like Micron for example has noted major headwinds elevated inventory levels and that hasn't been the case for broadcom it's got a healthy business for now for now although how long can it be an outlier in an industry that's facing these headwinds so keep an eye out for that that could be a risk here for broadcom now that I've looked at each step of my framework as it relates to Micron let's give it a grade customer value I gave them a B minus even though Revenue has grown exponentially the low score in terms of customer value is not a good sign there I gave them a B minus unit economics I gave them an A plus here excellent gross profit and operating profit margins a plus there a plus in total addressable Market they're addressing a massive 500 billion dollar market that's expected to grow for you know almost more than a decade competition I gave them an a here they've done an excellent job in reaching economies and scale to earn these high profit margins proven Innovation hard for anybody to come in and take market share from them risks I gave them a b because although there's little evidence of of of the macroeconomic risks that it's facing the pending acquisition could be a risk and I I'm I'm skeptical how long it can be an outlier in terms of not facing the same headwinds that other semiconductor companies are spacing and finally valuation I gave them an a because they're you know relatively they're fairly valued they're not they're not expensive going back historically and the fact that the industry is expected to grow so so quickly over the next decade and the fact that its valuation is not is not expensive is is a good combination here so I gave it an A in that regard all right so now that I've I've given it a grade in each step it's going to be time to answer the question if the stock is a buy but before I do that I would like to recommend for you to subscribe to my channel because this this recommendation whether to buy the stock or not is not a static one it's going to change and if you're subscribed to my channel you're going to get get the updates you're going to want to get those updates and not miss out on those so go ahead and hit that subscribe button while I switch over to the next slide and answer the question is broadcom stock a buy foreign Comstock is a buy the absolutely excellent profit margins coupled with the with the massive Market opportunity and relatively inexpensive valuation says that this could be a great time to buy broadcom stock for investors it could be perhaps that many investors are skeptical with the fact that broadcom hasn't faced these headwinds that other semiconductors are facing and so its stock is not expensive when it's performing so well the company's performing so well so that could be an opportunity here to jump in and buy broadcom stock add it to your portfolios if you need a semiconductor stock in those portfolios go ahead and add broadcom stock all right so that's all I've got for this video thank you for tuning in and if you're subscribed which I hope you are I'll see you in the next installment
Comments 0