저자: KenFisher · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 켄 피셔는 연준 영향력을 과대평가하지 말아야 하며, 미국 주식은 긍정적이고 강세장은 다시 올 것이라고 주장한다. 자금 흐름과 차익거래: 유럽·일본에서 제로금리로 차입해 미국에 투자하는 캐리 트레이드로 약 3% 스프레드가 생긴다고 설명한다. 이는 미국으로의 해외자금 유입을 뜻하며 달러·미국 주식에 우호적이라는 논지다. 연준과 금리: 브레이너드 발언에도 불구하고 연준은 시장에서 생각만큼 중요하지 않다고 본다. 장기금리는 전 세계적으로 동조화되어 움직이며 미국 10년물 하락은 유럽 금리 하락 영향이 크다고 해석한다. 심리와 경기지표: 시장은 현실보다 기대에 반응하며 비관이 커질수록 상승 여지가 있다고 본다. 유럽 PMI 등 글로벌 지표가 예상보다 좋고 IMF 전망 하향은 무의미하다고 평가한다. 대선 사이클과 정책: 피셔는 미국 대통령 임기 4년차 후반 주식 성과가 통계적으로 강하다고 주장하며, 민주당 후보가 나올 것이라 예상하고 이에 투자하겠다고 말한다. 트럼프 재선 여부는 알 수 없다고 한다. 관세 영향: 관세 전체 비용을 최악으로 가정해도 GDP 영향은 1% 미만이며 연간 성장률을 최대 3분의 1 낮출 수 있다는 계산을 제시한다. 다만 관세가 연준의 금리 인하를 유도할 수 있다는 점은 시장에 긍정적일 수 있다고 본다. 리스크: 유니온퍼시픽은 멕시코 의존도로 물량이 3% 감소했다고 언급되며, 무역전쟁의 실질 영향 사례로 제시된다. 사회자는 반대 입장에서 관세 충격을 우려한다. 출연자 전망: 피셔는 미국 주식이 현재 '베어'가 아니라 다시 '불마켓'이 될 것이며 시기는 불명확하나 곧이라고 전망한다. 트럼프의 멕시코 관세는 모두의 예상과 다를 것이라고 짧게 언급한다.
다듬은 글
Ken, I'll start with you. I know you're a "bull," but just this morning we got news that the private sector only added 27,000 jobs. We are seeing some of the largest institutional investors pull funds out of stocks. We saw what happened throughout this bull market. Okay, we also saw investors, particularly private investors, exit the market en masse last month .
the most this month, $44 billion outflow, and you should like that. So tell me why I should like it. Because it is a sign of pessimism. Well, pessimism always returns to the mean. The thing is, just think about it. If you take this employment data, you can focus on the negative if you want, but if you look at the European PMIs released overnight, with one exception, they all showed a positive surprise, and no one is writing about it.
But is this a reason to stay in American stocks ? Oh, there 's a better reason to stay in American stocks. A huge, huge, huge reason. Now think about it, because no one understands this. Okay, right now there's almost a 3% gap that you can drive a truck through, which nobody talks about, because I can borrow money at zero interest in Europe and use it to lend to my American unit with a currency hedge , and use it in America.
So, then I get the spread. I can borrow this if I want, with zero risk. I get almost 3% spread after I complete the currency hedging. And it's almost free money. And this is happening both from Japan and from the continent, not so much from Britain, but in very large volumes. And no one talks about it.
Money is flowing into America from abroad, financed from abroad on a massive scale. And no one understands this because of the difference between our short-term rates and their short-term rates. This is a very simple arbitrage operation, this mechanism is huge, and no one understands it. This is the reason why the US should feel good compared to other markets right now, because they are financing us.
You know, Ken, just now, Fed Governor L. Brainard told our Brian Chung: They're ready to adjust policy. As we know, bull markets don't die of old age. The Fed is killing them. So isn't the Fed slowly killing this "bull" market with this kind of rhetoric? I don't think the Fed is as important as people think.
Just remember what I said a minute ago. When they keep short-term rates high, it simply attracts capital from abroad. The global yield curve is important, not just the American one. The world is global. Here we see the opening bell of the New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ. We saw futures rise for the second day in a row.
It looks like the Dow Jones will start the day with a triple-digit gain, up 137 points. Scott, what are you paying attention to this morning? Well, I will of course continue to monitor how the market reacts to what we heard from Jerome Powell yesterday. I was a little skeptical about the market's overreaction to Powell's words that we would support the expansion, plus 500 points.
Yes. And when you see such big moves up, or even big moves down, it's not necessarily a sign of a healthy market. But I have a question for Ken about this. What is your reaction to the drop in 10- year Treasury yields ? Is this an assessment of what investors think about the US economy, or is it more like what you were talking about earlier— the fall in European government bond yields, which is dragging down our performance?
Long-term rates move in parallel around the world. Some are a little more, some are a little less, but the correlations there are very high. And you used a word, Scott, that I think is the right one— "feeling." I completely agree that feelings are bad. I like it when people feel bad because feelings are moods.
You are scaring us. Ken, feelings are moods that tend to revert to the mean. The reality is that play is reality versus perception. And when perception is worse than future reality, markets rise. When future reality is worse than perception, markets fall. The indicators turn out to be better than people expect on a global scale over and over again, when they expect horror and then recalibrate to expect horror.
Well, the IMF just lowered its expectations for China today. So, are you happy about this? Yes, because the more often they do it...keep in mind, is everything okay in China? No. But China has implemented a lot of monetary stimulus, and monetary stimulus in China usually takes about six months to kick in.
The fact is that the IMF can lower these figures. They've already done it twice this year, and that was before we even got to the first phase of the big recovery after the drop in the fourth quarter of last year. The point is, has the IMF ever been able to predict anything? No, definitely not. You know, Ken, uh, about the predictions.
I've always considered you a long-term investor. You are always focused on the long term . Should investors be worried about President Trump winning the election because he is clearly taking a tougher stance on trade policy, which could undermine business confidence and may already be starting to do so ?
That's a great question. So let me go in a different direction. If you look at the history of third years of presidential terms since the creation of the S&P 500 index in the 1920s, they have been positive 91% of the time. The thing is, it's usually focused at the beginning of the year. We've already had a lot of that growth early on this year.
Usually the pace slows down towards the end of the year, and there is more excitement around the upcoming presidential election, which I think we already have quite a lot of. The thing is, we always have all these crazy people running for president, and then eventually we're left with two candidates, we get a winner, and we always somehow get a winner in November of an election year, and I predict we'll get a winner in November.
And what usually happens, if you look at the average course of the fourth year of a presidential term, it starts a little slow, and then it accelerates in the second half, when you go through the primaries, you get two clear candidates, and the market pre-estimates the outcome, because that's what markets do professionally.
Evaluates the winner in advance. Will Trump be re-elected? I have no idea. I think it's too early to know such things. The point is that I predict that the Democrats will have a candidate. I predicted, I'll bet on it, I'll invest in it, because you just look at the history of the second half of fourth- year presidential terms, and on average they're pretty powerful.
We've only had four negative fourth years of presidential terms in the history of the S&P 500. We've only had two during the third year of a presidential term. The last one was in 1939, when World War II was beginning. This is actually a good thing in American history. But let me tell you about another thing that Americans don't think about much.
Forget about these elections, because they are still a long way off . What just happened is more important, namely the elections to the European Parliament. We had five, eight of them before that. And in all but the very first case, the market was positive over the next 12 months because you get the same effect: the consequence of going from high uncertainty to low uncertainty, right?
And we know that the markets don't like it. But you know what I find ironic is that with all these tariffs, even if they were to slow growth here, ironically, it would force the Fed to do exactly what Trump wants them to do, which is lower interest rates. And wouldn't the market react positively to that ?
Well, lately, yes, the market has been tied to the Fed. Um , but I think that's not necessarily a constructive model , and ultimately what drives corporate earnings and stocks is how the underlying companies perform, that is, fundamentals. I will add something else to this discussion. I think investors should know that Union Pacific gave a presentation at UBS this morning.
They said their volumes were down 3%. This company is heavily dependent on Mexico. So if you are trading in this market, you are feeling quite confident because of yesterday's Fed statements. This is corporate America talking to you. Here is the impact of the trade war. That's it. So, how to trade now?
Should I stay fully invested in stocks, despite all these tariff disputes that seem to have engulfed the entire world? You know, we have been discussing tariffs since the beginning of 2018; and the point is that if you add up the total cost of these tariffs, and assume that they are all real and implemented (which they won't be), and if no one can circumvent them through substitution ( and some, by definition, can), you still end up with an impact of less than 1% of GDP.
GDP, which in the world is growing at 3% , is something that reduces annual growth by a maximum of a third. The fact is that I go back to my previous argument. PMI indices around the world are pleasantly surprising in the world's largest blocs. Even economic indices are positive and growing. In America, we just had this...
the world is not focusing on the positive right now. The world is now focusing on the negative. I like it when the world focuses on the negative. So the answer is yes. This is a " bull" market. It will become a "bull" market again. I don't know exactly when . Today? Who knows. Eventually, soon. Yes.
The fact is that people are too focused on the negative. Let me digress for a second , if I may. Yes, you have 10 seconds. Watch what Trump does with tariffs on Mexico, because I guarantee it won't be what everyone expects. We'll come back and talk about this another time.
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