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yes Dan it's wonderful to have the most well-dressed man on Wall Street as always it's nice to be here okay so here's another optimistic message to be fair you're generally optimistic about all technology and you're consistently optimistic about artificial intelligence I know the whole story the party starts at 10:00 lasts until 4: and then there's an after party on a more serious note though we are currently examining Apple what makes this business even more successful we're getting bullish supply chain inspections from Asia after all in my opinion they are currently selling between 5 and 10 million iPhones before the general public which indicates that the holiday season is going well 30 to 4 per share is where the consumer side of the a revolution occurs in Cupertino okay so you have a lot of optimism by the way the street consensus is 255 while your price Target is 300 since the stock is now trading in that area practically everyone else believes it will remain there I would like to access some of the information in your note once more it's a really fantastic note that's released today in fiscal year 2025 you predict that 240 million iPhones will be sold Additionally you claim that 300 million iPhones require an upgrade as they have essentially not had one in four years that represents a sizable portion of those outdated iPhones I would like to ask you is Apple intelligence the only source are people upgrading for that reason or is there another one there are two explanations for starters this super cycle is going to be powered by artificial intelligence you can see it happening all across the world especially in China as 300 million of the 1.5 billion iPhones that haven't been upgraded in more than 4 years make up half of it however in the end we might discuss the I revolution from an Enterprise perspective referencing palor and other companies as well as jens's the Godfather of AI and Nvidia the iPhone will be the vehicle for Apple's consumer ey Revolution you are aware that I admire UD D yet I must disagree with you on one point I'm aware that you speak with a lot of developers and many of them are making apps for computers in addition to iPhones there hasn't been a revolution in laptop a everyone keeps suggesting that there would be a significant churn and that users will purchase new computers in order to access these AI features why do phones and laptops differ so greatly I believe that the initial step for these developers is first and foremost phones when you look at laptops and iPads from an a perspective you'll see that hundreds of apps will be developed on top of Apple intelligence because of this apple is currently experiencing a rebirth of growth initially with the iPhones and later with the rest of its product line however in light of the I revolution it is why they they are currently playing chess and checkers respectively all right there must be some standards here even if they are playing chess on the basis of Apple intelligence you are predicting that 240 million iPhones will be sold in fiscal year 2025 when we consider this is it a failure if they do 220 does that mean that Apple intelligence isn't functioning there are still a lot of iPhones and many of them need to be updated however how much do you think they actually need to reach an order for Apple intelligence to be a quote unquote success indeed I believe that this will take a number of years but 220 million is a line in the sand all right bullish 230 million Koch will be dancing at that I party for 240 million looking at the Bears I believe that they are unable to see I in the spreadsheets because as this all plays out all of our checks going out of Asia are showing much more toward 240 million all of this is only beginning to materialize for Apple which is why I believe $4 trillion is imminent it's simple to discuss Apple because it's one of the most popular stocks on the market and a massive Mega cat company but we also want to discuss the Apple ecosystem who else stands to gain if Apple can even get close to meeting this estimated 240 million iPhones look I believe that once it all works out other major tech companies like Google and meta will also be present on the consumer side albe it in a more peripheral way if you look at roblocks you look at some of these other consumer driven Brands and I believe that right now it's going to be so we think we're just getting started Frank this is the third year in a bull market that will last for 5 to 6 years however cook and apple will play a significant role in this ad party as we move closer to Nvidia is this still the case in other words is everyone else simply Living inidia World will things remain that way for the foreseeable future I believe that when Juan presented the vision for custom silicon and broadcom reported it was a market shift acknowledging that Nvidia leads and dominates the world but that there is also a growing trend for custom silicon that will benefit companies like Marvel and broadcom which support respectively Amazon and Microsoft and Google meta and Tik Tok while there are undoubtedly distinct locations for the various silicon types at a very high level it's difficult to avoid considering Nvidia as the top performer for all semis in 2025 as they enter their best product cycle in the company's history with Blackwell however how can we determine the length of the cycle and the number of quarters in which this kind of growth is possible in what ways does it differ from earlier cycles of semiconductors this cycle however is not like any other I believe that most investors consider the length of the internet infrastructure investment cycle and the introduction of the internet but this is a very different situation isn't it even though they have spent hundreds of billions of dollars developing a the companies that are investing in this space mostly hyperscalers are producing significant free cash flow to be clear this is a game Cher for these businesses as they all strive to reach AGI consequently I believe that this investing cycle spans several years you know openai just released model 03 on Friday and it's really significant in terms of the advancements they're making and the logic they're using the more computation you put into the huge language model the better the result will be according to post-training reasoning the main conclusion is that it is causing even greater computational demands in order to get AGI the short answer is that if I'm correct in my assumption there is a clear path for growth for the leading AI accelerator companies I also think that if there is a pause Nvidia the first time we would see it would be 20,1 127 I think investors will be surprised by the size and length of the investment in I the major arms dealers below that in my opinion are Nvidia broadcom Marvel and tsmc or arm as well as seme equipment players or testing firms like advantest and terraine this a investment cycle in my opinion has a lot of legs one of the risks to The Surge is that nvidia's profits may fall short of forecasts according to torsten's list according to him the likelihood of that happening is 90% expectations have become so high that they will inevitably fall short and this is a danger associated with the market as a whole okay so over the past few months the stock hasn't done that well what if I told you that Nvidia might have already factored it in at 31 times forward earnings by the way did he state that there was a 90% probability that n would be disappointed with the price to date the stock has increased 178% I understand and it's off as you just said additionally it is 31 times anticipated earnings as I just indicated he may be correct but the trajectory is crucial in this case given what we've been told about the demand for the chips can we really believe that Nvidia will be disappointed in the upcoming quarter which is currently underway I don't but if he's implying that there may be disappointment by the end of the year that's a long period and maybe I believe the 90% is too high to be quite clear though I don't believe there is a good explanation for nvidia's disappointing earnings this quarter or the following earnings growth is the biggest risk for 2025 in my opinion the snp's annualized earnings growth rate over the past 10 years is 8% what is the general consensus for 2020 minus 15 14 14 .8% we're here this morning that's a lofty goal that you must sort of reach given that the mag 7 is declining from 55 to 20 I believe that earnings represent the largest risk if you consider the mag 7 as a whole the number of decelerating units is some that's reasonable
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