저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
과거 Vijay Kedia는 Ravana-Vibhishan 비유로 기업 초점 변화 시 엑시트, 위기 때 재투자를 강조. 인프라·관광·자산관리·데이터(통신) 등 10년 테마를 제시하고 인도 장기 성장을 낙관. 소형·중형주에 거품이 있다는 주장은 부정하며 시장 전반의 과열을 일부 인정. 단기 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
So what is a selling decision, I had said somewhere on TV that I learnt selling decision from Vibhishan, the character of Ramayana, Vibhishan was a very learned pandit and he had invested in Ravana's kingdom in Sri Lanka, he was his minister, understand brother, whatever he had, Ravana also had triple A management, Ravana's management was triple A, there was no pandit like him in the world, it is written somewhere that when Rameshwaram was established there, Ravana was invited to perform puja, Ram ji called Ravana, it is written in Valmiki Ramayana, it is written in some Ramayana and Ravana blessed Vijay Bhavar, it is also said that he was great, he was a knowledgeable man, so he was an investor in a triple A company, Vibhishan was an investor in a triple A company, as an investor, when he came to know that the focus of the triple A company changed, his focus changed, so the investor left from there, so what did he do, he exited and then what did he do, then a triple A company which was once a triple A company And it was a very big company, when there was a crisis, he invested in it, Ram's company invested, when that company turned around, it became a billionaire, both of them became billionaires, so this is the biggest example in our history, within ourselves that when the focus of the company changes, at that time we have to understand that we have to exit the company and when a crisis comes, a bear market comes, a crisis comes, at that time investing in the company, that money multiplies, then it does not come in percentage wise return, then it comes in times wise return, so many times so much, so many times that return comes, maybe you can tell, maybe you cannot tell, but it is my duty to ask, I am trying in Hindi, it is my duty to ask, where is Ravana in this market, where is Ram, these two things are in your mind, I wish we could enter your mind and earn money, but that is not necessary, so take it out of your mind for a while, no, no, I have no objection in sharing anything, it is fine with me, but I can tell you this, I am asking seriously, I am asking you theoretically Look, right now one thing is for sure that right now Ramrajya is already going on here, nothing is cheap in the market here, okay, let me say that yes brother, understand that the market was there after Covid, the shares, whoever bought any shares, increased 20 times, 30 times, 50 times, 100 times, those shares belonged to everyone, that thing is over in that, that thing is not there at the moment, okay, so now you will have to understand the future, that how much this thing is going to increase from here, from here it is a bit tricky, it is difficult for new investors, it is impossible, it can be for new people that those who manage, be they consultants or mutual fund people or these people, these people can take out these things.
It is difficult for a new person to understand how fast the money will grow from here and in which company. This is a difficult task. So what do I do about it ? Whatever investments I have made in Peacock and Lace, whatever old investments I have made, I am sitting with them. I don't disturb them and I don't do this thing that okay, if this has increased then give me these 20, I will take the other one which you asked for earlier.
Because if I take another one, I will get encouragement from that too. It is not that this 10 has become 50. If I sell it for 50, then the other one is still five for five and the other one is still five for five, so there is some problem in it, the simple flowers which do not bloom even in spring, does it mean that they are not going to bloom, those peacock and lace, this is not a fixed rule, but of course, if the shares do not rise in the bull run, then it means there is some problem in it, that is true, but there must be some reason somewhere, sir, because many times the market does not rise as much as we want, or what is going to happen in the next six months, but Vijay Kedia feels that brother, because you take it for the long term, that till 2030, for example, there is going to be good business growth here and maybe stock market returns may also come.
Are there any such themes? No, I feel that the theme of infrastructure is a 10-year theme, construction of infrastructure, yes everything is included in it, this is a 10- year theme of tourism, I feel that the theme of tourism is starting in India and this should also be a 10, 15, 20-year theme, it has not continued for long yet, it is okay now, after Covid, many things come into it, many verticals come into tourism, airlines also come into it for example and many other things come into it.
I think this theme will last for 10 years. So I had said many times at one place that the air hostess tells us which theme is going to come next inside the plane. When we are sitting in the plane, it says that there are two doors behind you, two doors in front of you, there may be four doors on your sides also.
So you see where your exit door is. This tells us to be alert and aware of the market. When you live in the market, what happens in your life, you understand that when you live in the market, you get into the habit of observing everything. What is happening where in the world? If you keep your eyes, ears and senses open then the theme will come and tell you.
You'll notice that this theme is going to be around here for now. Whenever you go out, to the mall , to roam around, to go on vacation or anywhere, the theme comes to you. Nothing happens suddenly. She will come saying that yes brother, this is how this thing has developed. For example, consider wealth management.
Now it is coming to ₹25,000 crore per year. I have said many times that this ₹2,000 crore daily will come into mutual funds. There will come a time when there will be nothing worth Rs 25,000 crore in the market. You are talking about Rs 25,000 crore per month and are beating a big drum about it. 25000 crore 400 300 400 crore comes in loose form.
If we look at what is special about it, then if it happens then I think the theme of wealth management is going to continue for the next 101 years. I have said this many times like food, clothing and shelter and then a new idea got added to it, SIP sorry data, the development of data in the last 10-15 years has been such that every person now has two phones and many people have two phones.
Data keeps running from morning till evening. So the telecom company because despite this the telecom company was struggling for 10 years. Now, in the last four years, since Jio came, that theme has changed a bit. Vodafone is still dialing wrong numbers. He is not getting well yet. But it got added to my lifestyle.
Food, clothing, shelter and data. Now another new development in India is food, clothing, housing, data and ship. Just imagine that right now he is busy shipping my tune also 5000. These people need to be educated, only these people. So this could be a big theme of asset management or whatever category you call it, it seems a new theme is emerging in India, like tourism, infrastructure and I think actually whatever you are talking about 10-12 trillion, 10-12 trillion by 2030-32, if this development happens, there will be development in everything, everything will grow, there will be progress in everything, the speed may be slow and may decrease but do not bet on developed India, bet on India.
Bet on India. Oh, of course, of course. Yes, that is my song. If India is shot, even God will not save it. Now I will also tell you a secret. If India is shortchanged, even God will not save us. India Habib, what a luck I have with India. You are very strange. Whoever is sitting with you is the lucky one.
One abuse once. A small insult. This song. Okay, now I will also tell you a secret. If India is shot, even God will not save it. India is my destiny, India is my beloved. You are very dear. I remember another song. That was written earlier, a year or two ago, that do n't sell your goods in the name of FI loyalty.
When they come to take the shares, they will be 9, 2, 11, they waste this money for free, what does their father lose? Whoever followed him would repeat these two lines. Oh, I am dead, Mom. Oh, I am dead, Mom. OK, let's open the session for questions. I have one last question but what I told, many people bracket it in the middle saying that brother there is a problem with small caps , there is froth etc.
That is your ocean. Atleast used to be there earlier. Right now you probably invest more in large caps. I have n't even seen your portfolio recently. To be honest. But do you think that there is so much froth in small caps that they should be avoided or that ocean, okay, still I generally have limited investment, Neeraj Bhai, understand that there is major investment in 202 companies, may God make everyone a limited investor like you, but okay, no, the major investment is in those 15 companies and apart from that I will have 101 more companies, so I do not find any froth in them, but what happens is that when a pigeon closes its eyes, it thinks that the cat is not coming.
So maybe all the men think that there is no frock in my company. So all this, this can also be like this people. So I do not do it separately like this because I am not a mutual fund like these people, brother, money is coming to the court every day, say Rs 25,000, and Rs 5,000 is coming to them every day, so we have to invest it.
So I don't even have the money to find a new story every day and put a new one on it. So I feel that the froth is not in small cap or mid cap, there is froth in the entire market. This is not like it is in IPOs or SMEs. Small cap is also included in mid cap. It will also be there in large caps. So due to these relative reasons, people now say that one should buy large cap.
Large cap should be taken because the valuation of small and mid cap is high. Mostly you will give the argument that yes brother because there is more valuation in it. And that small mid cap decreases, so 50 taka decreases in three days. 20 taka 20 taka 10 taka 50 taka went. So like the large cap, it takes only three days to come within that parity here, so I don't think so, I think froth in the market does not mean that this froth is there, right now the market is also very dynamic.
You will find many such shares which have already lost 2530 taka in the market. Ok? Yes. So this means Offest is also settling down. It is not that the entire market is in euphoria. Right? Yoga is like an ocean in many pockets. There are many tasks, many are aggressive, many are like this. This is the kind of market.
But it always goes on like this. Ok. And but I am more comfortable mentally with the market which rises and falls. Like Sonakshi Sinha says in the movie, yes brother, I am not afraid of slaps. Everyone is afraid of love. So when the market shows too much love, I get scared. I come a little on the back foot and tell myself to think a little before doing my work, okay lovely, thank you let's
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