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hey everyone meek kevin here five hours ago i posted a video breaking down donald trump's tweets which happened like 15 minutes before that ending the stimulus talks in this video i'm going to discuss some of the ramifications of this so first i'm going to explain what we lost then i'll give the federal reserve's reaction to this then i'll talk about the impact of what this means for stocks and real estate i'll also talk about the impact of this for the election and then we'll talk about the path forward let's begin first what did we lose we lost the potential and the hope for unemployment pay stimulus checks housing and rental assistance these three things right here are huge school and student assistants liability protections airline aid post office aid state and local funding testing tracing treatment aid vaccine aid ppp funding for small businesses eidl money for small businesses medicaid or cobra for uninsured workers no additional restaurant money no airport money some top level reactions to this less unemployment pay means less money for consumer spending which means likely lower earnings and lower earnings expectations going forward at some consumer driven stores these could be home depot lowe's target walmart amazon however without small business aid those same companies could be the recipients of basically the death of more small businesses we've already had 100 000 small businesses in this country die from the start of this pandemic and this could be the final nail in the coffin for many tens of thousands more that's tens of thousands of more businesses housing and rental assistance we'll talk about this a little bit more in detail but could end up leading to an eviction crisis in this country which could lead to an actual foreclosure crisis and a real real estate pullback this is not good we are expected to be 31 billion dollars behind on rent payments by january 1st no school assistance actually increases the odds of a potential second wave if we have less money to ensure that schools can properly and safely stay reopened maybe they have money now because they're waiting for stimulus money to keep them topped off but if schools are straining their budgets now the next few months through the cold and well flu season are going to be even more difficult liability protections more and more lawsuits especially against small businesses will likely also be yet another nail in the coffin for small businesses as if you needed another one the airline industry will furlough tens of thousands of workers less money for the post office means slow and lost mail is likely to continue less or no state and local funding means potentially more layoffs of first responders and people who work in our local governments no money or additional money for testing means that when the white house and other organizations rely on testing like stephen miller who gets tested five days in a row negative and then on day six tests positive for covin means we're stuck with the same lame tests that we have now testing is not reliable in this country no eidl or ppp money means yet another nail in the coffin for small businesses and when businesses now lay off workers they won't get the medicaid or cobra that these stimulus negotiations would have promised for their health insurance which means if you're unemployed there are your benefits as well no restaurant money so there go tens of thousands of more restaurants no airport money which means dilapidated airports now with even less revenue coming in from the airlines continue to decay loretta mester a president of one of the banks the cleveland bank of the federal reserve has the following to say our recovery will now be much slower the timing of the stimulus package is actually less important than the presence of a stimulus package aka whether it happens this week or next week or in a month doesn't matter so much but now that we're here we might not see a stimulus package until january it's not good remember donald trump says if he gets reelected he'll do another stimulus package but let's be real he won't get control of the house if let's say demo if republicans swept everything republicans got the house the senate and the presidency he won't have power to do anything until late in january when the next congress is in session and his next term begins furthermore loretta mester says that she built a stimulus package into her forecast for the future growth of our economy and so have multiple other board members at the federal reserve this means when the federal reserve says we're going to have low interest rates and low inflation through 2025 and it's probably going to take through the end of 2023 for us to get to low unemployment again well those numbers might now just get kicked down the road even longer it's going to take longer to get to lower unemployment levels and we're going to have less inflation for longer which means we have to retool our investment strategies for an even longer outlook she further goes on to say that she's disappointed we didn't get a package she says we're still in a pretty big hole people and households need help 11 million people are still out of work we only got half of people their jobs back people still need to be on unemployment except those checks will now be substantially smaller she is disappointed that monetary and fiscal policies and well organizations came in strong at the beginning but then the only thing that kept pushing through was the federal reserve and congress basically went on recess she also says that without money for contact tracing or more social distance education or mass education or money for just straight-up vaccines to bail us out of this means we'll be in this pandemic even longer so now if we start putting together some of the puzzle pieces here some of the things that we can expect first more bankruptcies and small businesses small businesses are probably not going to be the place to invest going forward real estate well real estate's going to be an interesting one see the housing market in general might actually benefit from a lack of stimulus this this sounds crazy but listen this just for a moment the housing market in general and then i want to get to the specifics about evictions because we've got a very serious problem here the housing market in general might actually benefit from a lack of a stimulus plan because a stimulus plan was associated with uh oh more money printing means we'll probably see more inflation and when we have a greater expectation for higher inflation we tend to see higher inflation expectations play funny tricks on the overall market uh and inflation rates so if we now expect no stimulus package then it's likely we're going to see low inflation for years longer which means rates will stay low for years longer and we're more likely to see this housing market boom continue and rates continue to trend downward which makes real estate more affordable remember every one percent that interest rates fall prices tend to go up 10 the big thing that's been happening over the last 10 years in real estate as to why prices have been going up is because interest rates have been going straight down pretty much with the exception of 2018 when the federal reserve's like let's raise rates and now they're like oh shouldn't have done that if anything that's going to keep rates low even longer the memory of what happened in 2018.
so that's one part of the housing market in general the housing market actually benefits from another stimulus package the reality is many buyers of homes these days aren't necessarily relying on stimulus packages the people relying on stimulus are the people most hurt right now retail hospitality entertainment restaurants small businesses they're not in a position generally to be able to afford homes right now anyway so on that side the housing market can actually continue to just do well however we have this nasty hammer that might drop that's kind of uh floating above our heads called the eviction crisis and when that hammer drops it's gonna suck see the next stimulus package was going to bail out the tenants who are way behind on rent these are tenants who haven't been able to pay rent because they've lost their jobs in retail hospitality or whatever it might be well their hopes of now catching up have just been minimized and when the eviction ban ends at the end of this year we're going to see a flood of evictions by current estimates we could see as many as 12 million households be evicted that's over 30 to 40 million people and if a third of those evictions actually go through we could potentially see four million households evicted four million households evicted and if even just half of those put their houses up on the market we would see a boost housing market inventory by 2 million which would be about a 28 increase in the amount of available houses on the market now it's unclear how much a big boost of inventory like that is actually going to drag prices down because rates are trending down and when rates are trending down you might see prices go up 10 a year oh but now we got a flood of inventory and that takes prices down say 10 a year that might cancel out certainly a lot more inventory will slow the housing market recovery but it's not 100 clear how severe the eviction crisis will be but the more severe it is the more likely it is we'll see real estate prices slowly start getting depressed it could be a time to buy the beginning of next year when we start seeing evictions though my heart goes out for everybody in the situation where they might be in a place where they have to move oh and quick note if you want a fun way to find deals in real estate go to metcalvin.com deals or click the link down below for deal machine i've partnered with deal machine to get you some extra free credit so you can send free follow-ups to fixer-uppers in your neighborhood deal machine is an awesome software and i'm personally going hardcore on using the software over the next two years when it comes to stocks my expectations are that the stocks that i hold in the 1337 portfolio which you can see at met kevin dot com 1337 v 11 are going to continue to be power player stocks these are stocks like tesla amazon apple redfin etsy take a look at these stocks these stocks while they might see fewer sales in the short term because of a lack of stimulus and our economy might be drawn out a little longer the growth in our economy might be drawn out a little longer if anything these stocks will end up being the long-term beneficiaries of smaller businesses going bankrupt and unfortunately the world moving online to tech this is certainly bad news for restaurants and airlines for the time being though regarding the election i'm personally surprised that donald trump who just saturday said let's get a deal done and who a few weeks ago said let's come up on price just get a deal done all the money goes back to the american people anyway just get something done i'm personally surprised that donald trump would call off negotiations the way he did apparently he was on a phone call with mitch mcconnell and other republican leaders and mitch mcconnell said that pelosi was stringing him along and no deal she cut with minutian could pass the senate mcconnell said that we were never going to put a 2 trillion dollar bill on the floor anyway pelosi doesn't want to go below that and therefore mcconnell wants to instead focus on just assigning somebody and confirming somebody to that supreme court seat and as a result donald trump ended that phone call and promptly let everybody know via twitter that stimulus talks were over treasury secretary mnuchin and nancy pelosi ended up talking by phone briefly just to verify that this was indeed the case and yes it is indeed the case stimulus talks are over thanks to donald trump ending those stimulus talks donald trump says that he will pass a massive package when he is re-elected unfortunately like i mentioned earlier i don't think he'll have the power to do this until at least january because he would have to convince the house to vote with him remember the house even after the election there's still that lame duck period where you still have nancy pelosi in charge of the house which is the same thing you have right now mitch mcconnell in charge of the senate nothing changes until january the election won't really take effect until january in other words now part of me believes that donald trump is doing this to punish nancy pelosi and to suggest that nancy pelosi is just trying to bail out blue states and i'm saying that because he literally said that in his tweet but i think we all know as consumers and voters and individuals that republicans were willing to give state and local governments 250 billion dollars democrats were asking for 417 billion dollars we're talking about less than a 200 billion dollar difference here that's it 200 billion dollars and they blow up the entire package because of less than 10 of a difference to me it's surprising that donald trump would do this because donald trump is in charge and generally the party who is in charge ends up taking the blame for a failure to get a deal done not always but usually and so therefore i'm a little bit surprised the problem solvers caucus has come out and said that america's families and america's small businesses are hurting and cannot afford any more delays especially when a deal is within reach we cannot overstate how important it is to get a deal done inaction is not an option joe biden came out and said trump ended talks that would get help for our businesses schools for our family struggling for those unemployed that would have preserved hundreds of thousands of jobs but donald trump decided today that none of that matters to him pelosi asked are these the steroids talking and said trump has a real disdain for science democrats have a scientific plan to crush the virus some republican aides even were shocked and didn't see this coming now this isn't all just to bag on donald trump even though that was a lot of kind of negative on donald trump mostly because i think everybody's kind of scratching their heads like dude what are you doing man and that's just real no matter which side you're on i think all sides right now are like okay maybe he's got some tricks up his sleeves so we have two paths forward maybe maybe donald trump actually takes over negotiations i don't know if that's gonna happen donald trump might be a little too proud to do that but if donald trump cut everyone out got rid of minutiae got rid of meadows and he finally picked up the phone and talked to pelosi directly maybe a deal could happen that way however right now while that path is possible and maybe it's part of donald trump's greater strategy who knows maybe pelosi will even call donald trump directly and say hey can we make a deal can we still make this happen that's possible maybe this is all just a big negotiation strategy and if it ends up working hats off but right now a lot of people are pissed because we have no clarity well i guess the only clarity we have is that we're getting any money i guess that's pretty clear but the other possible way forward is unfortunately waiting to the negotiations that will occur on december 12th by december 12th the government's budget will expire again which means we'll be at another fiscal cliff where if we go over the cliff on december 12th without a budget deal the government's funding will run out and that's it boom no money for the government we go into another government shutdown democrats believe there might be a way to include stimulus negotiations into that but that's not good because december 12th is a long ways away right now it is october 6th we've got over two months and a week before december 12th the election will have happened by then and thousands of more people will have been laid off lost their jobs unable to pay their bills and gotten significantly more behind on rent and we'll have less money for the testing tracing and treatment that we need to end this freaking pandemic i'm sick and tired of being in at home but what does this mean going forward what am i going to do going forward well in my opinion i am going to continue to purchase on weekdays today was a weekday as soon as this news came out i went in and talked to all of my course members especially those in the money course i notified all of you and i said folks i'm buying and these were the things i'm buying i said exactly which options i was buying what stocks i was buying this is very normal but in addition to ramping up my purchases of my favorite tech stocks 1337 portfolio you can get an overview on i'm going to probably double back down on picking up more real estate because what we were just told is that the real estate market is likely to continue not only to stay buoyant but continue to prosper under an era of low interest rates for the foreseeable future we will have to deal with an influx of inventory from a potential eviction crisis i do believe the real estate market is strong enough right now we'll see we'll have to track numbers every single month the real estate market is strong enough at this point to absorb that excess inventory in fact when we look at multi-family housing statistics over 94 percent of renters paid their rent in september it didn't start that way but people ended up making their payments in september now we still had some unemployment pay in september so we'll have to see how october goes but in the meantime these are my thoughts and strategies going forward hopefully this is very helpful for you in the meantime i'm so sorry this this sucks thanks for watching and we'll see you next time
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