저자: DanIves · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 랠리가 아직 초기이며 투자자들이 AI 혁명의 규모를 과소평가하고 있다고 주장. AI 지출은 기업 예산의 15% 미만이며, 규제 우려는 기술 선도 경쟁에서 중국을 이기기 위해 과도하게 제한되면 안 된다고 봄. Meta는 35억 사용자 기반으로 AI 수익화 여지가 크고, 하이퍼스케일러들의 AI 수익화가 최근 분기부터 나타나기 시작했다고 언급. Palantir는 주권형 AI 수혜주로 제시.
다듬은 글
Where is AI now? Where are we in this AI growth story? Is the bull being chased, or is it just starting? In our opinion, this AI party started at around 9:30 PM. It's about 11:30 p.m. now. If you look at how more companies are being admitted to the club , it's not just Nvidia and Jensen, AMD, Palantir, Snowflake.
And we think this party will last until about 4:00 AM . The bears will continue to watch this party through the glass, when there is news, they will go up to their hotel room, read a book. The Bulls and Bears will meet at 6:00 AM. The bulls are having a much better evening than the bears. Yes, as you said, there is still a line out the door.
New companies are emerging. New companies are trying to figure out what their role is in this party, and it will continue for a long time . We still spend less than 15% of our money on artificial intelligence. And I think that's normal. I think investors continue to underestimate the scale and scope of the AI revolution.
I think we will continue to have moments of tension, whether it's macroeconomic, geopolitical, circular finance, cost containment, etc. But I mean, it's just my opinion that it's still very early in terms of where AI is going. I want to talk about the party analogy again. We are still in the early stages.
We are at 11:30 this term. But it seems like the parents came in and said, " Hey, it's too loud in here . Let's turn the music down a little ." So let's talk a little bit about security and what we're starting to hear about potential regulation. Aren't we evolving too quickly with technology? And if you think that might slow down what's happening with AI ...
First of all, technology always outpaces regulation. Now protective barriers will be established, self-regulation, which, in my opinion, is happening now. But you don't want government officials who still use flip phones and Blackberries to dictate innovation in this country. And for the first time in 30 years, the US is ahead of China in technology.
Regarding the security issue with Dario, and, you know, a lot of the hype that we've seen since then... Listen, I just think if we slow down, China will win. China is not slowing down. And I think that's part of what's happening now is that it's putting the industry in line. Because like Jensen, Nadella, they have, I think, much more sensible views on where this is going.
If they pause, for example, if you knew they were going to do that, they would cooperate and say, "Okay, we need to slow down the process." Do you think this will be a net negative for most of these AI stocks in the short term? Would that cause a recession, or from another perspective, would that allow them to reduce costs, their costs are at war with each other, and they could actually save some money from a modeler's perspective.
Yes, I think investors are not focused on who will create the best models, who will ultimately create the best use cases. But I would argue that if they slow down, that's why Meta stock will accelerate, and I could argue that's why Meta stock has done what it has done since its release. Because you can slow down and then suddenly think, “Okay, wait, we’re at the top, you know, the top four.
Now we will stop the elevator or pull up the ladder while the others climb up." So there is almost a regulatory takeover. That's why I think it's very important to understand how a poker game works. I want to talk about whether that could also be a possibility. We talked about whether it was a risk?
Could this somehow harm the market? But could there be an opportunity here if we focus a little on security? I mean, Jensen just said, "Hey, we're going to have our own version of security." Is there a growth opportunity in the history of artificial intelligence for more companies to focus on security?
Well, look at cybersecurity. Shares of cybersecurity companies have seen huge growth. But this is a good example from a security perspective. Look, you need security. "We need to install protective fences." insert. But I don't take the view that humanity is in danger, and if you tell me that an anthropological engineer has been there for less than 6 weeks, usually after 6 weeks you don't even know where the cappuccino maker is.
If he was able to see that in 6 weeks, then, you know, I'm playing in the NBA. So the point is , I'm just trying to explain what political narratives are happening. There are many answers. So sometimes you have to be careful in terms of some of the narratives and what they really mean. Uh, another action and opportunity I wanted to talk about is about the history of AI safety.
You are known as the bull of Palantir. I know that many of our viewers simply adore Palantir. We could talk about this all the time. But I wondered if this discussion about AI security is some kind of push for Palantir and what they're talking about, you know, protecting your information, securing your AI, and so on.
This is the sovereign AI factor for Palantir. Is this an opportunity for this company? Yes, because it is sovereign AI, and that is what Karp Palantir is talking about. This doesn't necessarily mean just giving your data to model players. So I would argue that this is why Karp Jensen and Nvidia did the same thing in terms of sovereign AI.
I think that's really important because you can just look at some of the things that are happening and think, "Oh, this is so negative for the stock market because someone's loss is going to be someone's gain." And also companies are getting smarter about what's going on. Speaking of sharing your data, Meta news has been a hit in the last few weeks and people are signing up for it.
Some people say that it needs to be given a lot of access, but what does having an AI assistant do for Meta's business, right? How can they use it and why is it important to them? They have 3.5 billion users. So, if you monetize 10 % of them, 15% eventually through artificial intelligence, advertising, or other types of cross- selling revenue, think about how that will impact the business model.
I would say that the news has definitely changed the game compared to what we've seen, because I think also the mindset at Meta was that they're spending all this money, you don't see it , but it keeps coming down to the install bases. Apple installation database. For example, you could refer to the Dell installation database.
Cisco is installing hyperscale systems. Therefore, I think it is very important to understand the possibilities that may exist. Many of them may be late, but within the install base, it is a monetization opportunity. And some previous generations of technology were always cheaper, right? It's a cheaper way to do things.
Artificial intelligence is an expensive project in most cases. So when you have that install base and that free cash flow, that's why it's such an advantage for these big players. And increasing the power of graphics processors in data centers. But also remember that if you go back to TVs, like in a few years, five years, the TV you see at CES or somewhere else is going to cost, like, four or five thousand, okay?
And then suddenly, as if you forget, three months later it was worth 3,500. Six months later, I'm just saying the cost of tokenization will go down. I don't consider the initial development, it's extremely expensive. But it's important to understand that this is the life cycle of technology. I think that because of this cost, many investors are afraid that it will ever really pay off.
And that speaks a little bit to the bears, who say that these companies, even if they're hyperscalers who already have a lot of money in their bank accounts , are still worried about how much spending is going on. What do you think the runway is before these costs really pay off, before they start costing less?
Yes, that's a great idea, but also I think in this last quarter you're starting to see monetization from hyperscalers. You've seen the monetization of Microsoft, Google, Amazon. So I think this is an important inflection point that we're starting to see. Look, this is a rebound because the problem is that if these companies, let's say companies like us, spend less on capital expenditures and free cash flow is 30% higher than what the Street expected.
In my opinion, stocks are falling. Because in this arms race, it all goes back to how you build the Las Vegas Strip in 1955. There is one Streep. You, as a technology company, need to make sure you have your place on the Strip. Otherwise, you can spend less and then you're in Reno. If you're looking for more promising stock ideas, be sure to check out this free special report right now.
This is a list of seven artificial intelligence stocks to invest in today, written by Market Beat's Thomas Hughes . This is a really interesting list, and you can find it for free by scanning the QR code or clicking the link in the description of this video today. And if you're looking for more promotions like the one you heard about in this video, be sure to check out the full interview on our main channel. You can find this video right here.
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