저자: CouchInvestor채널진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
알리바바는 중국 리스크에도 불구하고 매출 대비 저평가된 우량 기업으로 보며, 장기적으로 가치 상승 여지가 크다는 결론. 찰리 멍거가 알리바바 보유 지분을 2060년 300에서 600으로 약 100% 늘렸고, 레이 달리오의 브리지워터는 대형 중국 펀드로 12.5억 달러를 모았다고 언급. 중국 규제(부동산 위기, 게임 규제, 교육 규제)로 투자자들이 손실을 봤지만, 장기적으로는 알리바바·바이두·JD 같은 기업이 성장할 가능성이 높다고 봄. 위안화는 최근 1년간 달러 대비 약 1.8% 약세. 중국 금리는 약 4%로 경기 둔화 시 인하 여력이 있다고 평가. 중국 클라우드 시장에서 알리바바 점유율은 38.3%로 1위이며, 상위 4개사가 약 80%를 차지. 중국 클라우드 시장은 2025년까지 연평균 30% 이상 성장해 약 870억 달러에 이를 전망. 중국은 인프라·공급망에 집중하는 반면 미국은 금융·소프트웨어 중심이라는 차이를 강조하며, 공급망 소유의 전략적 중요성을 언급. 광군절(11.11) GMV는 약 830억 달러로 전년 대비 15% 성장해 중국 이커머스의 회복력을 보여준다고 평가. 다만 최근 실적에서 알리바바는 거시환경 둔화를 언급했고, 핀둬둬 실적은 부진해 JD가 점유율을 늘리는 모습. 알리바바는 중국 외에도 유럽·라틴아메리카에 진출해 있고 아프리카 확장 가능성도 언급. 진행자 본인은 현재 알리바바를 보유하지 않으며, 과거 보유했으나 지금은 리스크 때문에 제외. 다만 리스크 대비 보상이 1년~1년 반 전보다 훨씬 높아졌다고 판단해 채널 포트폴리오에 편입하겠다고 밝힘. 대상 자산 중 직접 언급된 종목은 알리바바(BABA)뿐이며, 해당 자산의 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 명시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
everyone carchivestre back to another video for today so let's talk about alibaba i've talked about this couple of times on this channel i shared my views on owning this particular company or any other chinese stock out there obviously there is risks to it right now a lot of you might say there is risk but the reward outweigh the risk i agree with you that if alibaba were a us company it would probably be worth around two to three times what it is worth today because if you look at the metrics like trading 12 months revenue i think it's around 2.8 times so it's pretty cheap compared to all the other big companies out there but again there is the china risk attached to it now surprisingly in the last couple of days alibaba has gone up i think around 10 percent or so while the broader market has gone down each and every day funny how that works but in this video i want to show you what's been going on with the company a couple of moves a couple of people have been making and then talk about the potential of owning alibaba because again it is a good company but it's in china and also if you want to invest in it obviously if you buy it in the us you don't really own the shares directly goes through a vie structure if you can bike on the hong kong exchange it's a bit better but again if you're just here for the short term gains don't really care about voting power etc you just want those numerical gains and it doesn't really matter unless it gets delisted then obviously that's a problem but that's attached to the risk of buying a company that is alibaba or any other chinese stocks now let's jump into this video so the first thing i want to talk about is obviously the increase in the portfolio of charlie munger and then the continuous investment in china by ray dalio ray dalio it's not new he's been bullish on china for a long long time highly suggest you go read his book there also some extremely good videos and interviews here on youtube i believe he went on lex friedman's podcast not so long ago so do check that out if you're interested but charlie munger for example has basically doubled his position in alibaba as you can see right here alibaba group holding he went from 300 in 2060 to 600 and 2060 basically a change of 100 percent and then ray dalio's bridgewater raises 1.25 billion dollars for its largest china fund yet now obviously recently it hasn't been sunshine in rainbow if you invested in china right real estate crisis ccp regulation ban on gaming or excessive gaming cannot profit from educational stuff etc but will that continue in the long term i don't know because it does hurt the chinese economy has hurt the growth of the economy and that's something that china obviously does not want to happen they know what they're doing but the short term yes it has hurt a lot of investors it might continue to hurt in the short term as well but in the long term if you look at those companies alibaba baidu jd are they going to grow over time most likely and also if you look at it from a monetary perspective if you compare the us dollar to the chinese currency you see that actually it has lost 1.8 over the last year in simple turns you can buy less with your us dollar in china also china's interest rates are around four percent or so so if the economy slows down significantly they can very easily lower rates and print more to support the economy as they have actually done more recently compare that to the fed it has already used most of its ammunition whereas china can still adjust its policies and before i continue to the most important part i want to thank the motley fool for sponsoring this video the motleso very important to note is that china is very very focused on infrastructure on supply chain whereas the united states has always been focused on financials and if we talk about cloud more on the software side again with cloud in china it's more infrastructure as we see here alibaba cloud has a 38.3 market share in china that was from the q3 numbers and the top four which was basically alibaba huawei tencent cloud and baidu make up for around 80 percent in market share so clear to see here that alibaba is the clear leader in that segment but touching back on the point that well the cloud market in china is more focused on infrastructure where the united states is more software we have some more numbers here the cloud industry in china is forecasted to grow over 30 compound annual growth rate until 2025 reaching around 87 billion dollars this is driven by infrastructure which differs from the united states where software is a larger area of spending and from a strategic point of view obviously if you invest much more in infrastructure in supply chain that's much much better in case of let's say a pandemic a war or some other disaster that happens around the world owning the infrastructure owning the supply chain is much more important than owning the financials and china knows it hopefully the united states takes note right now moving to the last couple of points and that's obviously the great success of china's singles day if you don't know when that is that's the 11th of november which is basically 11 11 it's like amazon's prime day but a bit bigger we're gonna look at the numbers right now so they reported gmv for that singles day of around about 83 billion dollars it grew 15 from last year so it basically proves a resilience in the chinese e-commerce because if you remember in the last earnings report alibaba mentioned that the macro environment is slowing down the e-commerce segment and that's why obviously the last print wasn't that good and one of the main reasons why the stock took another big hit and to further prove their point another competitor pin duo duo their earnings report wasn't great at all shows again that jd is taking market share and that alibaba sprint was not just a bad miss and they don't know what they're doing it is proving them right about the micro environment and about the fact that jd is just taking more market share right now and last point i want to make obviously if you invest in alibaba you know that their main market their main bread and butter is from china but they have a big presence in europe they have a big presence in latin america as well latin america we all know mercado libra is big there c limited amazon but alibaba has a presence there as well maybe next step should be or maybe would be african continent i'm sure they're looking into that i know china has been investing a lot a lot in africa and the world isn't really taking notice yet which is a bit dangerous if you ask me but overall if you invest in alibaba you're not investing in just a chinese company that just focuses on the chinese market it's going more globally i'm not gonna lie i buy stuff from aliexpress you basically buy the same thing you can buy in your store but for cheaper because it comes from the source yes shipping takes a long time but at least you're paying less overall i do not hold alibaba personally i do not have it in my portfolio i used to have it a long long time ago but right now i do not i know a lot of you do not want to invest in alibaba because of china and because of the risk but i also know that a lot of you are investing in chinese companies and probably you own alibaba or jd in your portfolio because again those are great companies it's just unfortunate that those companies are chinese one and the ccp likes to have a witch hunt overall it's a great company risk reward reward right now is i think much much higher than what it was a year or a year and a half ago that said i will add it to the channel's portfolio just to see how things will evolve over time if you own alibaba or any other chinese thought is type of videos lea-bye
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