TRUMP IS PISSED: PREPARE FOR TUESDAY

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01. whole country is getting blown up. He went on to say that bridges and power plants will be targeted if Iran does not sign this agreement. Futures are down about half of a percent across the board, Dow, S&P, Nasdaq. Why? Because the United States fired upon an Iranian ship during the ceasefire and a lot of people are wondering, "What does this mean?

02. Does this mean the ceasefire is over? What's happening? Is Kevin still going to be bullish or you know, is this going to be a flip-flop or does this just sort of reiterate exactly what Kevin said last week, which we're going to talk about?" And what is Goldman Sachs telling us? Because we got to go through a few pages here where Goldman Sachs is actually telling us money is flowing and you need to know about it and you're going to find out about it in this video.

03. No coupon code necessary. That's cuz the toad cup today, well folks, it's empty because well, I didn't fill it with tea today because it well, it was Sunday and I I didn't need the tea this morning. Anyway, what we're second to do is we're going to spill the tea about Iran. So, if you're new here, I'm Meet Kevin.

04. Welcome back. Let's get started. Let's keep this concise. Let's keep the emotion out of it and let's talk about how to make money. And if you like that, subscribe. First, what you should always do is follow US CENTCOM. I rarely go on X anymore now. I will say it's it's gotten too exhausting and too negative for me.

05. But some of the pictures they have here are insane like what looks like this solar-powered autonomous sailboat right here on the right, which just looks kooky dookie that they're sort of hinting it over there. But I really think this is almost like a casting call or whatever for a massive movie that they're putting together.

06. But some of the images that they have here of the naval blockade, they are awesome photos. Great shots of these amphibious launch ships, the drones that they're operating. I don't even know what this guy's got on his back. What the hell is that? I don't know. But whatever it is, it looks really cool.

07. And he's standing in front of a forklift, too. That's awesome. Then he got these destroyers over here. By the way, this, the US Navy fired upon and boarded an Iranian ship, yeah, that is the cannon that was used, right there. That is a 5-in MK, like Meat Kevin, 45 cannon, baby. Oh. They call it a gun, but I call it a cannon.

08. 5 in is pretty big. Anyway, so, what's actually going on? All right. So, this whole weekend we've been seeing a lot of headlines about, you know, markets are going to dip because the Strait of Hormuz is essentially in chaos, and that the entire area is essentially in straight chaos, and that optimism over a deal and a solution or now over because the United States has violated a ceasefire.

09. So, what actually happened with this? Well, what actually happened is the United States Navy is simply enforcing their blockade, and an Iranian flagship decided, you know what? We're just going to keep going through. Mind you, this is not in the actual Strait of Hormuz. We mapped this out last week.

10. We're not going to do it again right now, but what we will do is just roughly show it to you without actually drawing on the map here. This is the Gulf of Oman. This is the Strait of Hormuz over here. This is where Iran wants ships to head over. Uh they want ships to go around Larac right here. So, they want ships to follow around Larac, that way they can cover and control those ships and tow them, and then they want ships to go this way.

11. The suspicion is that there could be a lot of mines between this portion. That in other words, the portion between Qeshm here and Larac might be mine-free. Or at least that's, you know, what the propaganda is telling us. Now, that's not where our blockade is. Some people actually think we have a blockade in the strait.

12. Hell no. We'd be sitting ducks. We'd have probably have a lot of dead Americans right now. We actually have a blockade out here in the Arabian Sea. So, we just sort of have a blockade around here and Iranian ship was trying to sneak out past here. You know, they didn't quite make it to Karachi with Karachi which is Pakistan.

13. They didn't quite make it over there. So, somewhere around here in the deep waters, this is where they were intercepted. Now, they were intercepted and they were contacted via radio and this is unsurprising, but they were essentially told listen, if you don't turn around now, we're going to have to shoot and we're going to have to board your ship.

14. So, when they say shoot, this is important to know. They told the crew of the Iranian ship to abandon the engine room. This is not shooting that is intentioned to harm any humans. Please get out of the engine room. Then, they fired from that 5-in MK45 cannon. Now, I'm going to show you what one of those looks like when they're actually firing and they're pretty awesome.

15. Uh, but you know, these these things are juicy. And so, this cannon fired at their engine room and the whole purpose again was not to hurt anyone. It was simply to send a message that listen, you're not obeying, you're not turning around. Now, we are going to disable your ship and we're going to do that by firing this cannon and if you don't like it, too bad.

16. You're going to have a bunch of really big holes in the side of your ship and your engines aren't going to work anymore. Now, the how they can specifically target the engine room, I don't know. That's impressive, I have to say. But anyway, that's what one of them looks like. You can see this giant shell casing.

17. I like I want to go pick up like a 5-gallon bucket and like I don't even know if I can fit them in there. And pick up these shell casings, you know, go refill them at home kind of like you do at the gun range. Dude, those things are freaking huge. But anyway, here you go. Watch it again. Ah. Oh, it's so cool.

18. And because it's like a turret, what what is so impressive is when this fires, this whole, you know, mount doesn't move at all. It's actually just a rod. Oh, it's so hot. Literally. Probably don't want to pick up those shell casings. Yeah, you know, you'll have to wait a few minutes for those things to cool off.

19. But anyway, this, you know, has been blown up a little bit and people thinking, "Oh my gosh, it's all over." Look, in my opinion, the bigger issue is exactly what we said last week. That we still don't have a free flow of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Yes, there is some chaos. This is always the case when Donald Trump negotiates.

20. Remember, he's a bull in a china shop and stuff's going to keep falling over. It appears we continue to move towards some kind of negotiated deal. And my opinion is that this Tuesday deal, if we don't actually sign a deal on Tuesday, my opinion is that Donald Trump is going to extend the ceasefire. Now, I want to talk about what Goldman says, but first you have to know before what Goldman we talk about what Goldman says, you know, at the very beginning we put this little Trey Yingst clip about the entire country is going to be blown up.

21. Donald Trump basically says, "We are offering a very fair and reasonable deal. And I hope they take it because if they don't, the United States is going to knock out every single power plant and every single bridge in Iran. No more Mr. Nice Guy." Okay. Obviously, that makes people nervous. Crap, Donald Trump is escalating it.

22. But their whole MO this whole time has been escalate to de-escalate. They're literally sending their puppy I I mean, uh it was Steve Witcoff and Jared Kushner to Islamabad on Tuesday again to the go to go negotiate again. Donald Trump is just really pissed off when people compare the deal that he's trying to make to Obama's deal in 2015 because any like, you know, potential ceasefire of you know, how should I put it?

23. Any kind of ceasefire combined with a lack of nuclear enrichment for a period of time basically people are making fun of Trump saying that's exactly what Trump had which is exactly or what Obama had which is exactly what Donald Trump tore up and now you're just in the same spot except you spent, you know, dozens of billions of dollars and if not just in munitions for the United States military but also just economic damage you probably caused even more damage.

24. So, why, right? And and so Donald Trump is recoiling against this. He's like, "No, we're going to have an even better deal." So, that's kind of that ego is having Donald Trump dig in a little bit more. But again, to me this is all just sort of part of the taco strategy, escalate to de-escalate. Now, in fairness the UAE is talking about requesting a bailout preemptively just in case the war in Iran goes south.

25. They would do this through basically cheap access to US dollars so that they can essentially print money through us but not really print their own money, just print money with our money by borrowing it like extremely cheaply. And they're basically saying, "Hey, like we can't get our oil and natural gas out because you guys have the strait all locked up.

26. Can you all fix this?" Which obviously isn't great but, you know, what are you going to do about that? So, it's just a sign that company or countries are starting to realize, "Hey, this this is taking a little longer than you promised and higher for longer oil isn't great." Which is exactly what we talked about last week.

27. Now, we got to talk about what Goldman Sachs is talking about where they say money is flowing right now. But a few extra details that you should know regarding the war between Iran and the United States especially with regards to this whole idea of reloading. I'd be remiss if I didn't touch on that.

28. Worth also saying that because a lot of you have left comments and asked, "Hey, Kevin, there's so much chaos going on in the Strait of Hormuz. We want to be part of the Alpha Report Monday morning and Tuesday morning, especially Wednesday morning, as we go through this. Can you do anything for us?" What we did is we very, very, very briefly, only until Tuesday, extended the code.

29. We changed it from dude 44 to literally straight chaos. So, if you use coupon code straight chaos between now and Tuesday at 11:59 p.m., which is right around when that ceasefire expires over at meetkevin.com or househack.com, uh then you can be part of that Alpha membership and our group, obviously, the house hack part for real estate and then this is part of the Alpha membership, all nine courses, all trade alerts, and everything.

30. And what we're going to be doing, are we going to be buying the dip, right? Probably, hint, hint. And then you'll get to see what we're buying and otherwise. But, understand this, the US has used so many interceptors like Patriot missiles in the last 40 days, it could potentially take as long as 5 years to replace that.

31. This is why Donald Trump has recently suggested converting some car factories into missile facilities, like missile producing facilities, kind of like in World War II. These plans would essentially enlist the personnel and equipment, like the machinery at Ford, GM, GE, Oshkosh, and others to basically increase the manufacturing of munitions and then use them to put pressure on companies like Raytheon or Lockheed Martin to say, "Why are you guys manufacturing so slow?

32. We'll just go use somebody else." We did see about 12 commercial trips, a complete outboard transits through the strait. Uh there are some counts that over the weekend we got as many as 35 ships through. Uh however, a lot of ships have been U-turning and a lot of folks think that this ceasefire extension that is coming is really just an opportunity for Trump to reload.

33. The Economist argues that the blockade is a good tool for economically pressuring Iran. However, it takes time for those to work and a lot of people are betting on the downside, unfortunately, that Iran is willing to be a lot more patient than Donald Trump, who isn't exactly known for the best patience.

34. We shall see what happens. That said, let's go into the Goldman piece. This was sent to me by a subscriber. Thank you so much. If you ever want to send me anything, you could always send me an email to the [email protected]. You could say something like, "Hey Kevin, can you analyze this? You know, what's What are your thoughts on this?" Whatever.

35. Thank you so much to those of you who do. But, take a look at this. I found this very interesting. So, first, uh systematic positioning in US equities flipped from short to modestly long, but only at the 50th percentile. So, even though we're at all-time highs, we're only sitting at about the 50th percentile of long right now, which means we're really not overextended position in positioning at all right now on the S&P Russell 2000, and on Nasdaq positioning actually remains depressed.

36. Which, even though the Nasdaq 100 and the Qs have broken all-time highs, which, you know, we we were you know, calling for calls, and we called the bottom 2 weeks ago. Uh we're saying, "This is the time to buy calls." And a lot of people made a lot of money, multi-100% uh returns, mostly because, you know, we're pointing out, "Hey, watch this in the Alpha report." And then after calls on the Qs, we're like, "Now focus on Microsoft." And it was like 360 bucks, and the damn thing goes from 360 to 390.

37. You're like, "Go calls." All of a sudden, it's at like 424. It's just like, for Microsoft, that sort of volatility on options is huge money. It's great. Uh anyway, remember you could use that new code uh straight chaos. Only till Tuesday, though. We're We're just doing it through that ceasefire. Uh but anyway, what you need to know is that actually potentially suggests there's more room to go to the upside.

38. And this dip that we're seeing right now in futures is probably just going to wash away. Maybe not, but we'll see. But, already if you look at emerging markets, they had a dip, and the dip vanished already. In other words, it got bought up. Now, the other thing that's happening over here, this They say that the setup looks similar to Q1 2025, when basically you had liberation day and then all of a sudden after liberation day April 2nd, you ended up getting left tail scenarios get removed via taco.

39. Left tail scenarios are basically recession. Those got removed via taco and then all of a sudden earnings push you up up up up up up and away. And we're about we're basically starting earning season right now. They also indicate that commodities trading association members demand has been one of the largest in history.

40. Now, even though that has to do with a commodities group, they actually also trade in Nasdaq and tech stocks and otherwise. And they indicate that this has been one of the largest movements into buying in history. And historically when this happens, the S&P 500 returns another 2% on average in 1 month, another 8% on average over the next 3 months.

41. Call skew has gone aggressively in concert with the bid in risk. In other words, people buying calls, baby. But also look at this. Goldman argues that as long as the AI trade keeps working, you know, this is exactly what I said last week, by the way. Like until AI rolls over, which there's no sign it's rolling over, okay?

42. We all know when it rolls over, it's going to suck weenies. It's really going to suck cuz all the circular money is going to circular into the toilet. You know, the spiral up right now will be a spiral down and it'll suck. We got to enjoy the up right now. Anyway. As long as this keeps going, which is exactly what we said last week.

43. The base case is that the AI thematic play is going to materially outperform over the next 1 month, 3 months, and 6 months due to stronger than expected earnings and earnings revisions. In other words, I've been saying this. Hardware up first, after hardware software is probably going to catch a really big bid because it's so cheap.

44. Anyway, even Mark Benioff is freaking out about it. Credit quality remains healthy and stable across commercial and consumers. Consumer spend actually recently accelerated. Last week we're looking at Bank of America. This is Goldman. All of this is actually good. So, what did we say last week and how does it compare to now?

45. Well, last week we said, "Look, oil's going to be higher for longer. Unfortunately, this is going to take more time." Now, nobody wants to hear that it's going to take more time and it's going to cost more money, but we know this. We expect the hiccups. I think the worst is behind us and now it's about working out details and of course there going to be ups and downs when it comes to these details, but I'm actually not horribly nervous about it.

46. Now, good news is my Tesla referral code has activated again, so if you're interested in a referral link, you could go to metkevin, that's m e t k e v i n {dot} com {slash} tesla. Uh and you will end up on this page, metkevin.com/tesla to end up on this page if you need a referral code to Tesla. Uh remember we've got the brief extension to Tuesday evening for straight chaos over meetkevin.com and just want to shout out that I wish I made a video earlier today.

47. Sorry it's so late. I was making bread for the first time ever yesterday. I made a loaf and today I made a loaf and I was you know, sharing it with the kids and the babes. I'm going to share some videos on Instagram of the babies eating the bread that I made, which I'm really proud of. Uh you know, I tried to make healthy bread with whole wheat and so my first loaf wasn't that great and second loaf was a little better.

48. And then you know, I also took Max to the park. We we we ended up wiring his two batteries in and we did end up getting a smaller Traxxas RC car, but we wired them in series and it it basically gave him like a nitro boost of power on his car and it's like this This loving it. He he to buy a ramp forward or build a ramp even.

49. I'm like we can make one out of dirt in the backyard or you know even at the park there plenty of them but we'll figure it out. But anyway, you know, so a little bit distracted but I've been keeping up on the news as well and watching and I'm like I'm just you know, if we get some good red I think they're just going to be more opportunities to buy and not terribly bearish right now and I'm watching very closely what's going on in the labor market.

50. I'm definitely up on the bear bull scale at the highest level that I've been in in quite a while. Course members know exactly where that is. So stay tuned and we'll see in the alpha report tomorrow morning. So thanks so much for watching. We'll see you all soon. Goodbye and goodn.