저자: Kevin · 외국인
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에어인디아 787 추락 사고 영상 분석. 이륙 직후 고도 600여ft에서 추락, 242명 탑승. 고온·만적재 조건에서 기어 미수납, 플랩 미설정, 램에어터빈(RAT) 전개가 보여 전기 계통 고장 가능성을 제기하나 NTSB 조사 전 추측이라고 명시. 보잉 주식은 이번 사고와 무관하게 생산량 확대(787 월 4→5대, 737 Max 증산 요청) 맥락을 언급.
다듬은 글
video that was fed in minutes after this crash shows that this plane went down in a fairly populated area not far from the airport in northwest uh India. And as you look at the video here, you're saying to yourself, well, how much do they do they know about what happened? Well, it only got to 621 625 ft in the air before it plunged uh out of the sky.
Terrible. There were 242 people on board. It crashed shortly after takeoff. Now, the focus is going to be, okay, did anybody survive? And if there's no survivors, the recovery of victims. That's the focus right now and will be likely for the next 24 hours or so. The NTSB and the FAA are likely to help with the investigation.
Here's how it goes. When there is a crash in a country, that country leads the investigation, but almost always they will ask the FAA or the NTSB to assist with the investigation. NTSB would be the lead investigator there. The FAA would provide technical expertise. In terms of the Dreamliner, despite the problems when it was initially launched, and we covered those extensively back in that 2006 to 2011 time period, despite those problems since then, the Dreamliner has had a pretty good track record.
In fact, it this is the first crash involving a Dreamliner. Boeing is in the process of increasing its production of the Dreamliner from four per month up to five per month. Take a look at shares of Boeing over the last year. It is also expected within the next couple of months to ask the FAA for an increase in 737 Max production.
We'll see if this investigation uh influences that decision by the FAA. And then finally, take a look at shares of General Electric, GE Aerospace, I should say. The Gen X engine has a strong reliability record and when you talk with people within the indust Okay, I'm gonna jump in on this. So, let's talk about this.
Here's the thing. Jet engines are ridiculously reliable. Insanely reliable. It's one of the reasons that I like having two of them on my plane. Yep. Here's the plane model again. So, let's just understand jet engine for a moment. And why was the ram air turbine allegedly It's It's a little hard to tell from the video deployed.
And what what the heck even is that? Uh so first of all, jet engines compared to propeller planes, if you fly something like a regular piston engine plane, you typically have an engine failure every about 3600 hours, which most people aren't going to fly 3600 hours, but it's it it the statistical rate is usually one engine failure in 3600 hours, whether it's a small Cessna or a Cirrus or or whatever, right?
Uh so single engine prop plane, one every 3600 hours. for a for a turbine engine, a jet engine, the failure rate for one of them is typically a 100x fewer failure rates. So, you're looking at about one failure every over 330,000 hours. When you then combine a second engine into the statistics, the odds of uh really a dual engine failure are frankly extremely extremely low.
It can happen. Uh there was an aviation accident a few years ago where there was a dual engine failure where it looked like potentially still waiting on the final NTSB report on it. Uh I think it was in Florida where potentially uh the pilots inadvertently reached over and and shut off both engines manually.
So even in engine failure crashes on jet engines uh it's it's so uncommon to see both of them fail that uh that often people look for some form of crew error uh in the process. Now, I want to we'll we'll look at the video uh in just a moment here of the actual oopsy dupsies, which is terrible. But it's also worth remembering that this is this is the first time that a Boeing Dreamliner, a 7878 uh has had this form of an accident.
Uh and it it's it's terrible. Here's the Wall Street Journal edit together of the clips. Take a look at this. Apparently, it crashed uh at about six just over 600 ft in altitude, lost lift, and began descending. As you could clearly see in the video, it crashed into uh a like a medical school. Uh and so it's likely that some individuals on the ground died as well.
I did see uh a note uh from uh uh the Reuters Newswire that potentially they have one survivor from the flight and potentially one more. So possibly up to two survivors from the flight, which is quite frankly very very remarkable. But there are a few things going on here that are somewhat concerning.
First of all, this is a hot day. Uh so let's pull up the temperature quickly. But uh we're not at a very high altitude. Uh this airport where they took off uh in India is about 192 ft uh off the ground. So we're not at like you know an Aspen takeoff where we're at an extremely high density altitude in terms of actual altitude.
The problem is the temperature right now uh is you know your average temperature in June is a high of 101. Uh and your weather right now I believe is also 101. Let me see. Uh let's grab weather 99° at the moment. Uh and then of course uh it is uh you know we're in the later hours of the day uh now in India.
So we're looking at uh earlier today we had temperatures in excess of 100 to 102°. This is going to limit some of the performance of a Boeing 787. 282 passengers. You're also knocking on, you know, a relatively loaded well-loadaded plane. So, you've got a heavy plane. Uh you've got potentially a full fuel plane here as we're we're making our way to London uh was the destination for this.
So, 7878 max takeoff weights usually around 560,000 lb. They operate empty at about 285,000 lb and uh they generally fill up with fuel of about 223,000 lb. Uh with 200 passengers, you know, assuming some luggage at 200 person 200 lb per person, maybe 225, you're you're easily adding about 50,000 lbs of of payload here.
So you're pretty dang close to your max takeoff weight. We're not going to have I mean, you know, flight manifests will show us the exact weight calculations and performance takeoff calculations here, but one of the things to remember in this this aircraft is you've got a heavy plane taking off on a hot day.
It's already hard to get lift. So, you're up against challenges which would require you to generally have flaps deployed and the gear up as soon as possible. In this clip right here, it looks like we have a few problems. The gear is down. Big problem. The flaps are up. That's a very likely a problem at this point.
I mean, they could have just removed them when they got to 600 ft, but usually you're going to put the flaps up at 1,000 ft. We'll talk about that in just a moment. Uh, and then some folks are pointing out that the RAM air turbine may have been deployed. Now, the ram air turbine could be deployed for two different reasons.
Engine failure or an electrical failure. Talk about that in just a moment. First, I I I want to tell you what I know about flying a smaller plane, significantly smaller plane. But when I take off uh on a smaller plane, we actually have uh video of it, so I'll I'll just I'll pull up a video of it. When I take off on a smaller plane, they're very very different uh from taking off like a jet.
A jet is very different from taking off on uh in a prop plane. When I used to learn a multi-engine on um prop planes, we actually surprisingly there was at least from the trainers that I learned from and I didn't spend a lot of time in multi-engine propanes, but there was quite a bit of a lag time in how quickly you would pull up your gear in a jet.
almost the second you get a positive rate of climb, which is typically when you feel like you're at about 50 feet, gear up, it's almost the first thing you want to do in a jet. Uh in my training, in jet training, the I was blown away because I remember in my training that remember I still relatively newer pilot, but I actually think that provides a new perspective because it kind of gives you some insight into, you know, what's it like in training, right?
In training, I remember just regularly getting yelled at like, "Gear up. Gear up. Let's go. Get the gear up." And I was like, "Oh my gosh, I gotta get the gear up so freaking fast." Like, I feel like I'm still on the ground and they're yelling at me to get the gear up. Uh, and so I think it gives an interesting perspective.
Here's an example. Twitter in the freaking video quality sometimes. You ever notice that when you try to load a video on Twitter or X? All right. So, this is just an example of a jet takeoff, and you can see how quickly we go for the gear up. It's almost immediately watch. I'll just play this for you for a moment so you can see how quickly we get the gear up.
And then we can compare that to what we see with a Boeing that still has the gear down. All right, go static here. Static takeoff means I've got my feet on the brake. Setting the power. Full power set. Takeoff power set. Look how long it takes to start moving. 70 alpha camera take off right positive right that wasn't even that fast like the the trainer that I learned with in Florida would have probably wanted it even faster than that but you see it's like positive rate gear up it's it's the first thing you're doing on these So, you know, there's talk this that the pilot flying this plane had, you know, many thousands of hours of experience.
And so, seeing the Boeing with the gear down at this moment is very odd because it the gear is a substantial source of drag. If I want to in training emergency descend a jet. So let's say we have a rapid depressurization uh at 40,000 ft or whatever. One of the emergency procedures is drop the gear. Now you can only drop the gear on this jet at 250 knots or below, but you drop the gear because that gear slows you down so fast.
You could basically point the plane down and and spiral down in an emergency descent. And it helps you from oversp speeding the airframe of the aircraft because there the gear creates so much drag. It also gives you some more stability. It's like it's like a boat kind of keel if you will. Uh but the point is the gear creates a ridiculous amount of drag.
So for people not in aviation, seeing the gear down here is insane. And I doubt any pilot would have purposely left that gear down because it is this is going to be a two pilot crew and there's no way in hell they forgot to put that gear up in my opinion. It's it's so rare to not see the gear go up because it is the very first thing you do because it's so dang heavy.
Now, does it happen on goarounds like emergency goarounds? Totally. But because the ram air turbine was deployed as at least what you're seeing some you know folks talk about especially on like aviation Reddit or whatever. Uh what you find uh let's see here if I can find it again. Yeah, here's the India flight.
We we'll I'll click around here. There's there's a high-res video here somewhere of this but . Uh and yeah, here it is. Edit two. You can actually even see the ram air turbine spinning on the video if you pause and zoom in at the end. So, they uploaded an image here. You see that here? It's very, very grainy.
It's hard for me to tell uh exactly, you know, what's going on. It's it's likely that's what's going on. That could happen in a power failure. Now, in a power failure, you could get the gear down manually potentially and just drop it down. Or in the Boeings, it's a little harder. you know, they could take a few minutes to sort of manually pump it down.
But if they had a power failure on takeoff, it's possible they couldn't get the gear up because a lot of the hydraulic pumps that move the gear up in aircraft and jet engines, even though the engines might operate the hydraulic pumps, the electronic, the hydraulic pumps are electronically actuated. So, it is possible that there was some kind of catastrophic electrical failure here.
This is why a lot of people will say things like, "Oh, Kevin, you know, AI is going to replace pilots in the future." I personally don't think so because if you have an electrical failure, you need somebody who could still fly the plane. Unfortunately, this is probably the worst condition to have an electrical failure.
Now, we don't know that's what caused this this accident, but the reason it's possible or or at least, you know, something I am suspicious of is because this aircraft has its gear down. Its flap isn't set. Which then makes you wonder, was there some kind of error where they thought they had the flap set and it wasn't actually set and the electrical sensors weren't working?
Why was that failure not caught in their takeoff configuration? You know, before we go to takeoff, we press this little button that says takeoff. Okay. Not every aircraft has this. I I you know, I'm used to the embryo air. Uh and if my flap isn't set for takeoff, it won't it'll say uh uh you know uh uh no takeoff flaps is usually the error we would get.
Is it possible that there was some kind of sensor failure? Maybe. But if they were able to take off, did the electrical failure happen after they retracted the flaps? But why did they retract the flaps this early? Because you could see the plane struggling to gain lift here. And really, you're you're almost in a stall condition here.
Usually when we think of stall, we think of plane nose down, but there's no lift here. The plane's heavy. Uh it's ram air turbines deployed which signifies either electrical or engine failure. Uh we are heavy, we're hot, were probably full of fuel which is obviously terrible for the you know the impact as well because it just creates this disgusting you know fireball of an explosion.
But that's just the way it is. The fuel is carried in the wings and those are like the first things that break off. So you know the the the true answer here is we have no freaking idea. But this is very odd because this was, as far as we can tell, a a straight out takeoff. Uh there had to have been some kind of catastrophic error here because it doesn't look like Here's actually a little bit of a longer clip.
It does here. You could see they're leveled out, almost leveled out. So they've when this video starts, you don't actually even see them climbing much at all. They fail to climb as soon as they're at, you know, 500 ft or so, which is devastating. The most dangerous portions of aviation, takeoff and landing.
And this is the first 787 crash. And once again, it's Boeing, which what makes me most concerned about Boeing is I think we touched on it, but just in case we didn't, President Trump's justice department has agreed to let Boeing out of a criminal trial and guilty pa surrounding two 737 Max 8 crashes.
That's different from the 787 Dreamlininer. Uh the DOJ in a court filing Friday said it had struck an agreement in principle for Boeing to avoid prosecution, meaning it won't have to go to trial next month and can avoid being branded a corporate felon. Why were they going to trial anyway? Boeing had previously reached a criminal guilty plea in 2024 under the Biden DOJ admitting that its workers conspired to defraud aviation regulators before the crashes that killed 346 people in 2018 and 2019.
And that had to do with the uh the trim override uh for the pitch controls on on the aircraft. And the training, at least from from my memory on this, the training was very lax for uh I think these were the Ethiopian crashes uh for the pilots in how to override a failure of the uh pitch control which led to the rapid oscillations and the eventual, you know, stall and plummet out of the the sky for these aircraft.
Absolutely terrifying uh crashes uh and terrible. And and now there's talk, you know, as part of this guilty plea that, you know, Boeing had actually conspired against regulators. And, you know, this this is why there's so much concern around this whole like anti-regulation movement because there's a lot of talk around the Trump administration looking for less regulation.
You know, it's what Elon's been a proponent of as well. Uh, and there's concern that could less regulation contribute to things like this, especially at companies like Boeing. But here you get a little bit more of a longer look into this just lack uh of of of lift essentially. Uh and this pull up here is is almost just a you know reaction in the moment of oh my gosh we're going to hit something if we don't pull up here.
Uh, and you can just see the plane sink, which is very very common to sink like that when your gear is down, es, you know, especially in in a non-configured uh, setup because if you have flaps deployed, you get more lift. You know, when we come into land, I usually land full flaps. I could land flaps three or I could land flaps four, you know, I'm generally full flaps deployed unless I have an engine out, then I'm then I'm flaps three.
Uh, or if I'm going, you know, super low IFR. Uh but um don't appear to be any flaps here. So your your lift is miserable in a high heat environment where your engine performance is already bad. And if you potentially are heavy and you had an electrical failure that didn't let you bring the gear up and you had a flap failure, that could be what happened here.
Now it's speculation. Obviously, we won't know until the NTSB is involved. And it's absolutely terrible uh to to see what happened here. But uh there's a comment here that um uh many medical students died too. Number unconfirmed. Absolutely terrible. Boeing whistleblower who committed suicide warned of a lack of Q&A or quality assurance on these 787s just two months ago.
Coincidence. You know, there have been I mean remember the guy uh the whistleblower who got shot in the pickup truck sitting in his pickup truck. Somebody just walks up and shoots him. You got to be careful talking bad about Boeing. you know, uh, terrible. Absolutely terrible. Uh, somebody else is linking the full clip here.
Okay, we'll go ahead and pull that up. Thank you, by the way, for uh, provide. Can you provide some positive stats on air travel? Kind of scared to hop in a plane. You know, air travel is safer than than vehicular uh, driving, especially honestly commercial aviation. Uh I I think that uh if you are on a twin turbine plane, so basically a two engine jet plane, it is extremely rare to have problems.
These jet aircraft usually climb like a bat out of hell. Uh you know, heavy and hot problematic. Two engines on a Boeing though, usually not an issue at all. Uh so this is very rare. the the engines that we actually have on this puppy are uh oversized, which is actually pretty common for a business jet to oversize the engines.
We can climb very well on one engine. Kind of crazy. Um, okay. So, let's look at this. Somebody just sent me this new footage. New CCTV footage. So, Air India plane crash. Okay, let's see this. It's It's really devastating to see this kind of stuff. Okay, here we go. I had to type it in and find it manually.
Sorry. Okay. So, here's the takeoff roll. I mean, do I see flaps here? I don't even It's hard to tell. I don't even see I can't tell if we've got because you you'd be somewhere between 10 to 30 typically on a 787 takeoff. Now, in fairness, I've never flown a 787. Oh, wait. Am I not showing the screen?
Silly me. Sorry. Here we go. Okay. There we go. Okay. See the takeoff. It's relatively nose high already in my opinion. on a hot day like this. That's quite a hell of a pitchback. Where's the gear up, bro? Yeah, I The gear up right there or not moving at all signifies a really really clear uh uh issue.
I I There's the impact. Oh my gosh, that's terrible. That's interesting. gear up. Honestly, the gear should have been coming up by here. You saw in the video that I played by about right here, we were gear up. And it doesn't look like the gears going up at all. But why would if they had an electrical failure by this point, the takeoff should have been aborted.
So, something else that I didn't that I didn't say that could add some perspective here is in my video you are going to hear me say uh 70 check. Okay, so I say 70. Uh my fo says check. Okay, this is important. 70 check. Okay, it's a cross check at 70 knots. That is a decision moment. If I have any problem before 70 knots, I pull the throttle back and I I slam on the brakes.
I try to maintain that center line and I'm going to get off the runway. I'm going to abort the takeoff. It's going to take me 20 minutes to take off again because those brakes, those ceramic brakes are going to have to cool down cuz I'm going to be creating some smoke. So the 70 check is really important, but it's an opportunity to abort the takeoff.
If you have a problem between 70 in in this jet, it's going to be a higher speed obviously for the Boeing and V1. You only abort for engine failure or engine fire. So maybe they had an electrical failure between their version of 70, their cross check, which could be at 80 or 90 for them, right? And V1.
That would explain why that gear didn't go up, unless of course they just forgot the gear. Again, I think it's remarkable to forget the gear. Alpha positive. Look at that. I go positive rate gear up. My alttimeter is not even at 100 feet yet. This uh elevate, this airport is at 73 feet. So, I'm about 25 30 ft off the ground and my gear's going up.
So, it's already driving in. Now, it takes a moment for it to drive in obviously, but it's useful to think about that because we don't see that in uh in in this shot. Uh let's pull it up again here in where did I just put it? Anyway, we don't see that at all in this Air India takeoff which is quite concerning.
I'll show you another angle too but let's play this one more time. Okay, so here you go. Okay, here comes V1. This would be rotate. There you go. The nose is up and liftoff. Gear fully deployed the entire time. And it's very hard to tell if the Rammer turbine is out yet at this point. Can't get lift.
It's so sad. This is so sad. Hot day. So again, performance problems, right? Not uncommon. I want to show you uh another angle of just sort of a normal takeoff. This is me flying out of Henderson and my trainer uh who was in a prop plane right behind me who trained me. I love this guy. Chris Weey, all in aviation.
Like shout out to you guys. You guys are amazing. Frankie, Dana, love y'all. Jacob, great people. Okay. All in aviation. Henderson. Great. Hashtag notsponsored. But I did all my training there in these serious aircraft. Uh and so one of my trainers saw me going to take off and uh you'll see, you know, in our takeoff roll how quickly we go for that gear.
Although the clip ends pretty much right when it starts, but there's our takeoff roll and gear's already going up. You see it kind of collapsing in right there. There's only another like second of the video there, but that gear is already going up and we're what 20 ft off the ground. So, I can't stress enough how important it is to get that freaking gear up ASAP, ASAP, ASAP.
That's what I learned in my training. That's what I learned. Uh that's what I do in practice. And to see this not happening on this Boeing, I have I'm I'm very hardressed to believe that the pilots forgot the gear. It like two pilots. It It just seems so unlikely. And again, combined with the ram or turbine, there had to have been 's my opinion at this point.
Obviously, we'll find out more uh as uh as we get more details. But um uh yeah, somebody says, "Can we do a clip of a Boeing takeoff?" Let's do that. Uh and then we'll be done. Boeing 787 takeoff. You know, a Dreamliner takeoff. Let's see how quickly they take off. Extreme close-up takeoff at Melbourne Airport.
Sounds perfect. All right, there's our takeoff roll. Okay. All right. There's the one. Let's see how So, by 50 ft, you usually start going in. And here it's activated already. Do you see the doors open up already? And they're going in. So, it takes a moment, but those doors, so in other words, they activated the switch very quickly.
Look right here. See these doors right here? Look how quickly they're activating the gear up. It's a great suggestion, by the way, in the comment, by the way. Thank you for saying that. Look at this. They're they're 10 feet off the ground. And those gears start opening. The the gear doors start opening up.
Watch this. My my gear doors stay open there. See that? That's the pilot activating gear up. So, literally positive rate gear up. The very first freaking thing they do. And then obviously it it takes time for the procedure to complete, but the pilot's activation of gear up was instantaneous. They're faster than me on gear up.
Great suggestion in from the comments here. Thank you. Thank you for saying that. Uh so it's it's very very sad. Very very sad. Uh and Maybe the gear of the plane was was stuck. It's possible. Uh again, would you get ram air turbine coming down? Again, maybe the ram air turbine wasn't down, right? But if the RAT was down, you'll see that written as rat.
Then it was likely electrical related. Uh and so even with the thrust of the two engines uh in this heat at max load you could have had trouble climbing. Uh very sad. Usually by the way when we have uh climb performance issues you lower your your angle of attack substantially. So, when I go to climb uh out of a uh hot airport like let's say uh Harry Reid, I'm climbing at a substantially lower pitch because I'm hot and heavy potentially.
This looks like a pretty decent pitch. Honestly, you know, I don't know that you need to climb at that heavy of a pitch, especially if you can't get the gear up. So there could have been an issue here where there was a little bit of panic where you know the gear wasn't going up and they decided uh or or and they didn't level off a little bit earlier there.
They tried to pitch down a little bit. You can actually see them adjust their pitch here. So the gear's still out. I believe that's what I'm seeing here. You could see the pitch angle changes right about there as they start pitching the nose down a little bit. I think they realize they pulled back a little too much.
The problem is now they're already sinking. Sink rate. It's It's devastating. I don't even want to watch it again. It's It's so sad. It's so sad. Uh but that's my breakdown. That's my opini.
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