저자: Kevin · 외국인
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미국 경제가 정부지출·관세·이란 전쟁 영향으로 부양 국면에 있으며 실적 호조가 주식 상승을 뒷받침한다고 주장. 빅테크 AI 투자·토큰 사용 급증이 지속되고 CPU 컴퓨트 수혜 기대. 금융주는 포지셔닝이 낮아 저가 매수 기회로 봄. 스페이스X는 단기 밈 급등락 후 장기 성장 전망, 테슬라 등 메가7 매도 자금 이동 우려 언급. 유가는 호르무즈 리스크 과대평가로 향후 공급 과잉 가능성 제시.
다듬은 글
All right, everyone. We last left off talking about how the economy was booming. Capital good orders at 3.3% on Fed day versus the 0.5% expected. GDP holding at well, 2% in Q1 despite all the madness continuing claims the lowest in 50 years. Earnings are dominating on top of that leading a lot of people to kind of be a little frustrated.
Why is the stock market rallying so much? Well, in this video we got to break down how it could actually get even worse. We're not only going to talk about GDP and government spending and how Donald Trump's tariffs and the Iran war could actually fuel a massive stock market boom. I'll explain that. But, we're also going to talk about SpaceX, artificial intelligence, and token usage inefficiencies, efficiencies, a lot.
So, as always, I'm meet Kevin. Let's just get right into it. All right, so the first thing to know is Bank of America has an interesting piece and they call it the boom loop. Their argument is that as a way to counter deglobalization, populism, and inequality, they expect government spending to rise 15% in the fiscal year of 2027 and continue to go on.
Now, that's just a simple little line that I threw there. Let me try to explain that a little with a little bit more clarity and insight. In my opinion, what Deutsche Bank or sorry, Bank of America here is actually arguing is the government's going to come in. Not just the United States government, but the German government, especially since the Germany just lost the 5,000 American troops that are deployed there, the UK government, Canadians with oil infrastructure.
Doesn't matter what country you are in the world. Countries are going to say, "You know what? Post tariff regime and post this deglobalization movement, we're all going to build our own infrastructure. We'll build our own ports. We'll build more of our own nuclear power. Heck, there are even arguments that we were going to see an end to nuclear non-proliferation.
Basically, hey, let's all get nukes. Let's all manufacture everything because after all, there hasn't been a country that has nuclear weapons that has been invaded, which is exactly why Iran wants nuclear weapons and exactly why even Bill Clinton feels partly to blame for the Russia-Ukraine invasion.
See, Bill Clinton helped encourage the Ukrainian government in the '90s to give up their nuclear weapons and then they did and oh, wow, we'll take Crimea in 2014. You know what? Now we'll just take like Eastern Ukraine and Dnipro. And this is exactly why North Korea is like, "Yeah, we're making more nukes and look, nobody is attacking us.
In fact, Donald Trump loves me. He says I'm a a great person." Which is quite interesting, the relationship between the two. Meanwhile, Iran doesn't have nukes and well, we know what's going on with Iran. Now, obviously, Iran has one heck of a reputation and has had one for the last 47 years, but what's been going on has led a lot of countries to say, "We need nukes." In fact, Pakistan, the very country motivating these sort of peace talks, they literally generated their own or or produced their own nuclear weapons.
They sold Iran details on how to manufacture nuclear weapons. Uh this has all been exposed and the person who sold the recipe for manufacturing nuclear weapons got pardoned. But anyway, Iran's like, "We're just going to make nukes anyway." Then they did. Now they have them and now they're a peace player.
And they're helping negotiate. Very interesting. But all of this is leading countries to say, "Not only do we want our own energy infrastructure via nuclear, but we want our own ports, we want our own rare earths, we want our own manufacturing for chips, whatever it is. They want it themselves." Now, this creates an efficiency problem, but it also creates a stimulus factor.
I'm just going to walk over here to make sure I'm actually still rolling. Yeah, there we go. Okay, we're still rolling. Uh yeah, oh yeah, yeah, it even says so on my watch. I'm trying This is the first time I'm trying this out. It's sort of a the mobile the moving camera, if you will. Oh yeah, cutting my head off there a little bit.
Anyway, it's kind of cool. The watch actually shows you, you know, it shows you a little kind of image of what's I don't think you could see that. Anyway, especially since some losers uploading in 720p because he doesn't want to sit and wait for a 4K or 1080p video to upload. But anyway, uh all of this creates a lot of spending by governments, whether it's on those ports, roads, energy infrastructure, which we've massively not invested in in America.
Part of that is due to LED light bulbs, which boomed in the early 2010s, and we had like a flat decade where energy and utility companies are like, "Okay, well, usage isn't really booming. Let's just not invest as much in infrastructure." Then after COVID, everything exploded with work from home, more ACs at home, more operating of of uh you know, now of course data centers.
Now we're way behind on energy infrastructure. So, what all of this implies is that the government is going to have to spend a lot of money uh and and when I say the government, in this case I'm referring to global governments, on energy infrastructure for data centers, which are mostly right now using uh natural gas turbines because, you know, basically they're own turbines bec- like Bloom Energy, because they can't get enough from the grid, and they don't want to build where the grid is established because where the grid is heavily established, you're mostly in left-leaning cities or states, and they're super anti-AI and thinking that AI is, you know, Satan or whatever.
Lot of things going on here. Point is, governments are likely, thanks in part to Donald Trump's tariffs and what's going on in Iran, to spend massively on not only defense, so military industrial spending, but also infrastructure. All of that spending has a velocity effect. In fact, government spending typically has the highest velocity effect of all spending that exists.
That means more people with more jobs over time. More spending by government meaning corporations have more profits. I mean, Donald Trump is literally picking winners, right? Picking, you know, MP materials, picking Intel, or whatever. This is like corporate welfare almost. It's sort of like, you know, we thought stimulus checks were cool for people, 1,200 bucks.
This is like, how about 12 billion dollars just flowing into various different companies that the government is choosing to save. You know, they recently almost threw 500 million dollars at Spirit, which is really a would have been a drop in the bucket for what they need because, you know, even Jack, my then 7-year-old identified that Spirit loses all their money.
And of course, now they're bankrupt. He identified that two, two, three years ago. We did that on a live stream. It was hilarious. Uh Jack reviews financials of a company. Anyway, that was a walking uh death story. But anyway, the point of this is deglobalization in the very long term leads to inefficiencies.
Duplicate ports, duplicate infrastructure building, duplicate defense industries means we have less specialization. Like technically, we should be seeing more com more countries saying, "Hey, you know what? We're going to specialize in making drones." China's really good at making drones. In fact, they're literally like, "We're kind of selling the drone motors and blades, you know, the motors that sit under the blades.
Uh and and the GPS systems, whatever, the battery packs. We're supplying those to the Ukrainians who are assembling them, and we're also selling them to the Russians." So, China's just like, "Whatever, man. We'll just keep selling." Well, I mean, after all, they're the manufacturer of the world. But now you've got Pete Hegseth who's coming up out and saying, "Hey, we're going to invest billions of dollars to this point in manufacturing our own drones because we don't want China to have this advantage." Which makes sense.
In fact, this is now being called the $1.1 billion drone dominance program. Let me be the first to say that I don't think $1.1 billion is going to be enough to get drone dominance away from China. But the point is more buying of drone parts from American manufacturers and building up that infrastructure here, whether it's for batteries or motors or otherwise.
Obviously, the Chinese can make this stuff cheaper for us. Obviously, it would be more efficient for us to just buy their stuff. But that then creates national security risks. And since everybody today is really worried about national security, thanks to again what's happening in the Middle East and what's happening in Russia and Ukraine, well, here you are.
Everybody wants their own secure supply chains, which creates, in my opinion, a boom for GDP. And it's not just my opinion, it is the opinion of Bank of America. I'm just substantially expanding on this. As far as flows, we are at the fifth week of inflows now for US equities. Beginning of April, by the way, we went super bullish on the market.
We had a price target set of 675 on QQQ like 5 weeks ago in the course member live stream. And people were buying calls, people made a lot of money. We bet on hardware first, and we we expect software will be next. And if you're not part of that, make sure you join us over at meetkevin.com. I think we have the extended coupon code goodbyepowell.
You could use that code goodbyepowell and join us at meetkevin.com. We will have the alpha report coming out on Monday, on Tuesday, on Wednesday, and so on and so forth. So, come join us and see what the next price targets and calls are going to be. Uh that said, it is also worth noting that right now we are at the highest allocation to stocks by Bank of America private clients that we have seen since December of 2021.
In my opinion, that is actually contrarian bearish because December 2021 was the top. 2022 was a pretty painful year and people didn't want to hear that stocks were going to go down and indices went down like 30%. Obviously, we're up from then, but something to keep in mind. Something else that's sort of on the low side right now, so in despite those inflows and that positioning, what's on the low side I should say right now is financials.
Now, I actually think there are going to be some deals to be had here. I've been watching SoFi and Robinhood specifically. Last year, when Robinhood was trading for like $130 a stock, I'm like, "Hey, course members, let's do evaluation on it." We came up with a fundamentally fair valuation of $69 for Robinhood then.
It's trading for like 70 bucks right now. So, it's literally come down almost 50% and see sometimes the cool thing about the course member membership and and the alpha reports is not just here's a buy target, but also here's a don't buy, just wait and be patient, you know, pointer. But anyway, financials in terms of positioning right now are at one of the lowest levels we have seen since 2022 and the bear markets we saw at the end of 2018 and a little bit in 2019.
So, financials positioning is really low, some of the lowest that we've seen in about the past 4 years. That's going to be banks probably because of private credit headwinds, but also crypto. Crypto has been a big revenue generator because the spreads on crypto are massive. And so, that has slowed down leading to less revenue growth at companies like Robinhood.
Keep in mind, anytime a financial institution can get you to make bets or you know, trade or invest in something that is thinly traded, they make more money. So, if you you can make bets on nominal odds, you know, is Kevin going to have a live stream tomorrow? If you could make a bet on that, there's going to be such a wide spread because so few people are going to be betting on that compared to, "Hey man, I just want to buy the S&P 500 S&P 500 with $100 tomorrow." All right, brokers aren't going to make a lot of money on that.
They're going to make maybe a fraction of a penny uh for I should say maybe probably I think Robinhood makes about three to four times I should I should fact-check some of these numbers. They make a whole lot more than money on crypto and options than they do when you actually buying liquid stocks, but we already know that.
That's old news. Uh [snorts] now, the other thing and this is actually coming from Deutsche Bank that's being talked about is discretionary positioning from uh from from regular retail investors. Right now is up, but it's nowhere near as high as where we ought to be if we actually looked at earnings.
So, I don't know if this is going to be visible, but I'm going to try to do it anyway. I'm just going to physically hold this up over here. All right, let let's see. Let's see what we got here. Uh so, we got this green right here, okay? That's kind of where positioning is. The purple line implies where positioning should be based on earnings.
This is basically a way of saying, "Hey, earnings are doing so well that we could justify substantially higher levels in the stock market." And so, if you combine what we're seeing with earnings with what we've got going on in fiscal spending, this is the part that we opened with this idea that the government is spending like crazy and is going to continue spending like crazy, not just the US government, but European governments, Asian governments, whatever, you know, even like the UAE wanting to pump out their own oil.
That's a great thing outside of OPEC. Now, keep in mind Iran is part of OPEC and uh you know, a lot of people are pissed at Iran, so there's sort of this idea of, "Okay, let's punish OPEC because, you know, Iran's part of it." But, the Economist actually goes as far as saying that not only will countries like the UAE increase oil output because of this disaster we're seeing now in the Strait of Hormuz, which, you know, is it going to open?
Is it not? Right? And you know, Donald Trump's reviewing a peace plan. Is it good enough? You know, Iran is basically like, "Hey, uh our economy is suffering so bad right now. Can we just like make a deal for the next 30 days that we're ending the war, and then we'll reopen uh everything, and then in 30 days we'll talk about the nuclear issue?" And, of course, you know, Donald Trump's reaction to this is usually like, "Well, let me check what the S&P.
Let me check what the Dow is doing. Guess I don't need to negotiate." You know, the market is kind of giving Donald Trump the latitude to be really patient here. It is quite likely that the market is under uh pricing the oil risks that are going on, but once we peak out on oil risks, we're probably going to have a boom in oil production, and frankly, a glut uh in oil availability.
At least, that's what the Economist thinks. We'll have a glut of oil availability. That's a lot. A lot of oil. And that actually then drives more consumer spending, and even more of a boom. So, you have this GDP infrastructure boom from fiscal spending, and the inefficiencies that come with that, which are short-term stimulative.
You have earnings that have already been killing it. And then, once oil prices come down, you have that as yet another stimulative factor, which is Honestly, it's it's too much stimulus. Uh and so, this is where you are starting to see a lot of companies issue more buybacks. Berkshire Hathaway just started increasing buybacks.
A lot of software companies are increasing buybacks. The only companies that are really not doing buybacks are companies like Google, Meta, and Amazon right now. They're doing the opposite of what they did last year. Last year lots of buybacks, now no buybacks. Why? Because they're investing in CapEx.
Which again is going into the circle jerk of artificial intelligence spending, which is not showing any signs of slowing down. This is actually kind of crazy, but weekly token consumption 4x between January and March. And that's in part due to coding tools such as the Anthropic tools that have sort of blown everybody's minds.
In my opinion, this reiterates why Elon Musk made this deal with Cursor, because Cursor has coding compute, and Elon sort of has like Grok and image generation compute on X. You're going to get a lot more value. Like people are going to make more money, they're going to be willing to pay more money coding, because you're actually producing something you're willing to pay for rather than memes you're not willing to pay for.
This is why OpenAI killed Sora. Do we care about people making cat machine gun [snorts] memes all day long? No, Jimmy. Or do we want people using those same tokens to generate actual products and services that they can make money from, which then increases their willingness and capability to pay, given especially that OpenAI, Anthropic, Grok, all of them are essentially subsidizing token usage today.
Like we would The fact that we can use AI for free or pay 20 bucks a month for better versions is crazy. They're losing money on us right now. Whatever. I talked about some strategies, by the way, if you want this totally free. You can download the Meet Kevin app. Yesterday's Daily Wealth I put out an AI usage cheat sheet that I made without AI that I encourage you study and implement in your life.
Okay, how are we still doing here? Still rolling at 17 minutes. He's still going. He won't shut the F up. I know, there's a lot to cover. So, this brings us, since we're on the topic of Elon, this actually brings us to where we sit with SpaceX. Now, SpaceX is a really interesting one because the information is reporting that mutual funds and investors have suggested selling other stocks in the Mag 7, including Tesla, Apple, Meta, and the others to fund purchases of SpaceX stock.
Now, I personally believe this. I think in the short term, SpaceX memes. I have a whole video on that. If you haven't seen it yet, just type into YouTube Meet Kevin SpaceX and you'll see it. It's all about the brilliant and evil genius plan to essentially acquire Tesla for pennies on the dollar, get that control that Elon wants, while meming with low float SpaceX because everybody thinks SpaceX is going to get included into the indices.
So, everybody wants to have an allocation because people don't like underperforming the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq 100. So, a lot of investment managers have this bias where they have to allocate similarly to the big indices, otherwise they feel like they're going to get left behind. So, they feel like they have to tell their clients That's why I own a lot of SpaceX.
Although, a lot of earlier investors, I think, are going to use that opportunity, myself included, to get the hell out. Anyway, mostly because not not because I don't believe in SpaceX. It's just, you know, revenues are revenues per user are plummeting at SpaceX for a Starlink because they're doing whatever they can to buy customers.
They're marketing like crazy. They're losing money hand over fist at xAI. I think the cursor deal makes sense because they have to put these chips to use at xAI to sort of bandage losses they have, but I'm also bearish on the cursor deal long term. I think they are behind and cursor is sort of an older product compared to the Android There's a lot of catch-up to do, in my opinion.
And we're still a bit from profitability on these reusable rockets with, you know, competition coming up behind Elon Musk, including Jeff Bezos. Not saying I'm betting on Jeff Bezos over SpaceX. I think in the long run, SpaceX is going to be a fantastic company. I just think it's going to go through a meme boom and bust first.
Especially with the losses that they have compared to other max seven plays. But we shall see. They will meme squeeze it first. I do think their outstanding float will be will almost certainly less than 10%, which sets them up for the perfect meme squeeze. It's going to be really entertaining. But I personally think venture capitalists, like myself, employees, Elon Musk's Elon Musk himself, early investors, SpaceX themselves, they're going to dump shares to fund raise at big dollars.
And that then actually enables people to raise a lot of cash again. Guess what they do with that cash? They go invest in companies like House Hack. Yes. They invest in company companies that are buying chips or building AI software like House Hack. And the capex cycle keeps going. Sorry, shameless plug.
House Hack, also known as Reinvest. We're rebranding Reinvest. You all already know that because we don't just do real estate. We're not just a company that owns $80 million of free and clear real estate, but we also develop real estate prop tech, real estate SaaS, and we've got stock AI products coming out as well, which is awesome.
And all of that cash flow gets reinvested back into real estate, which is why we love the freaking name, Reinvest. Okay. Some freaking lame banker also told me that it might not be a good idea institutionally for IPO purposes or otherwise to have the word hack in your name. BUT SCREW THEM. ANYWAY, UH SPACEX LOST $4.9 billion last year, mostly on rocket work, obviously.
XAI adds pain to that. The top five hyperscalers in 2026 will spend $750 billion this year. That's Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Oracle. That's freaking nuts. Um TSM, by the way, has about twice the gross margin that other businesses do at 60%. Insane. Nvidia's gross margins, we already know were insane at like 75%.
There is all a lot of talk about more custom chips being developed. Custom chips can cost half as much as Nvidia's chips because you don't have to pay their gross profit. Problem with that is only Google's been able to scale doing that and one of the reasons they've been able to scale doing that with custom chips is because they've been at it for 10 years.
Them being at it for 10 years is actually another reason why I'm bearish Elon Musk going, "Oh yeah, we're going to spend like $4 billion on a YOLO project in Austin, Texas to manufacture our own chips." Basically, you know, Dojo 3.0. Whatever. Uh and we're going to YOLO into chip design and manufacturing and it's quite hard.
I actually do like their partnership with Intel though. I think that's a good one. We've certainly at House Hack Social Reinvest seen the benefits of CPU compute, which is one of the reasons we called out CPU compute early in in Q1. Which is exactly what we're seeing boom now, AMD, ARM. And that's why you want to be part of the Meet Kevin membership.
See what we're seeing early. we'll see you all in the next one. Goodbye. Good luck.
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