저자: ChiefPaPaAllan · 외국인
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엔비디아는 AI 칩 독점적 지위, 약 70% 매출총이익률, 데이터센터 수요로 대표적 텐배거(10배 상승 종목)로 제시됨. 스마트폰 칩 사업 철수와 GPU·AI 집중 전략, 규모의 경제와 '무기 공급자' 논리로 주가 급등 설명. 다만 이미 과도하게 오른 상태이므로 신규 매수보다 다음 텐배거 발굴 권장. 2022년 하락 시 손절은 실수였다고 지적하며 중국 수출규제 리스크는 가격에 반영된 기회로 봄. 말미에 유료 강의 홍보.
다듬은 글
I have been very bullish on Nvidia it has risen 265% in the past seven months so how come this stock is able to surge so much in such a short period of time? and if you didn't buy Nvidia then what are the lessons you can learn from this stock? so that you can use it to find the next ten bagger? Hello everyone!
I am ChiefPaPa Allan In this channel, I will share important things I've learned from three decades of investing to help people avoid market crashes identify ten baggers and build your wealth exponentially if you haven't already subscribed please do so now and turn on the notification to receive instant notification when we upload videos or do LIVEstreams Let's get back on track Nvidia is one of the ten baggers I've previously identified I've talked about it in several previous videos about the reasons for such bullish views for Nvidia Last November ChatGPT released version 3.5 and AI became a hot investment theme remember my "Five-step Stock Selection Process"?
the second step is look at the industry/sector when we saw AI reached singularity that means we could find treasures that will take off during this uprise I think 2023 is the beginning of the generalization and commercialization of AI Thr existence will bring many ten bagger and Nvidia was my most favourable AI stock that performed best now let's see why aside from what I mentioned in my previous videos there are some summarised insights first, when you have a business you must be the number one in the business and if you're the only choice that would be even more ideal when it comes to chips for AI usage, Nvidia is without a doubt the best in the business followed by AMD but there's a big gap between the two so it has a lot of pricing power the products can be expensive but the customers still need the products especially Nvidia's customers they need this Nvidia part to empower their business like Microsoft Google and other data centers as well as cloud storage they all need the Nvidia chips to run their business let's look at Nvidia's gross profit margin it's around 70% now let's look at TSMC also a very successful company but has a lower profit margin now if we look at Intel or AMD the profit margin of their products are even lower, relatively even Apple, with their awesome products their profit margin still isn't as high as Nvidia we can now see that Nvidia products are the best in class in the market Of course, when we look at a company we must also look at their management and their decision making Jensen Huang is very famous in the area of GPU back in the day of computing there's Moore's Law honoring Intel's founder Gorden Moore now we are in the age of GPU we have Huang's Law there's Jensen Huang in the field of semiconductor he recently mentioned in a speech that the smartphone chip market was too competitive so he decided to exit the market altogether and bet on AI and GPUs these two areas 我們能為份額而戰 反而 我們做出了艱難的決定且犧牲了市場 Nvidia 的使命 是製造計算機來解決 普通計算機無法解決的問題 我們應該致力於實現我們的願景 並做出獨特的貢獻 我们通过离开电话市场的戰略性撤退 by leaving the phone market 得到了回报 我們打開思維去發明一個新的 我們設想為機器人計算機 創造一種新型計算機 his vision led to a head start for Nvidia, over its competitors they began R&D way before the competition and that's why their products are better than the competitions now their products have become customers' only choice in the field of high-end chips they're an industry leader another Nvidia bull case is the industry/sector's tremendous scale effect The R&D of one single chip requires a large amount of capital as well as talents in order to design one chip after having a design the cost of each chip sold relatively speaking is very marginal so when AI increases the demand for Nvidia chips on a large scale the increase in sales will bring up Nvidia's bottom line profit with an even higher percentage Then this cost advantage may be a combination of the following scale effects high fixed costs plus low marginal costs or experience curve One of these three factors or experience curve One of these three factors could also be a mix of two One of these three factors could also be a mix of two or even all three factors involved To the emergence of new market GPUs Intel又再一次的被Nvidia打敗 To the emergence of new market GPUs Intel is once again defeated by Nvidia so we see Intel is once again defeated by Nvidia so we see products designed by Nvidia today in driverless in big data computing in many aspects of AI in big data computing in many aspects of AI are far ahead of his competitors in many aspects of AI 在AI很多的方面 in many aspects of AI are far ahead of his competitors Now, there's another reason why Nvidia surges An important one when a stock surges there needs to be a simple reason a story for analysts to tell Nvidia is riding the AI trend the reason of its surge is very simple it's the only arms provider in the game of AI it provides weapon to all the main players The Arms Provider story goes back to the Gold Rush when people discovered gold mines in San Francisco lots of people rushed to California to mine gold but in the end most of these gold miners didn't make a dime but the shovel makers that sold shovels to the gold miners made a ton of money so, in investing when there's a hot market and you're the arms provider providing weapon tools to the players you'd be in a pretty good position Nvidia is the arms provider in the AI game right now so will Nvidia continue to rise?
is it too late to buy now? I personally think if you only look at the fundamentals you'll see that all these positive factors have been priced in but we must not ignore the power of a good story it could very well continue to attract talking heads on different platforms to praise the stock The market closed 3% up It once broke through 1 trillion and it was also the first chip stock breaking through 1 trillion Its future is limitless In his limitless process Do you know Nvidia is not the only one moving upwards All Nvidia-related concept stocks went up Taiwan stock went up too Yes Semiconductor、Cloud、AI、 Graphics Card、Carrier Board Radiator, High Performance Computing all went up The one company that can put up a number like this the one company in semi-conductors that’s beating and raising 的情況下不斷發展壯大 the one company in semi-conductors that’s beating and raising while not entirely meeting demand It’s just really impressive performance So I would say you know the move as big as it is 與如此好的業績都是一致的 is consistent with just how good these results are and attract even more investors including institutional investors or retail investors to chase this stock in the end a stock will surely be over-bought rises above its instinctive value so we must not guess where the top is there's no telling how much longer will this stock will continue to rise and buying the momentum is dangerous when the stock price surpasses the value the bubble might pop which has a lot of downside so, personally, I think if you have not yet bought Nvidia then it's better to find the next ten bagger If you bought Nvidia in the past but sold too soon and regret it now then the following two common mistakes among retail investors may be helpful don't make the same mistakes again the first one is when a stock surges you're making around 30-50% of profit then take the profit and exit in a hurry because you're thinking it's risen so much but forget about why the stock is surging we must clearly understand that we are investing in ten baggers it has the potential to ten-fold so don't be in a hurry to exit after only 30%-50% of profit the second common mistake is stop-loss In 2022, Nvidia's stock price was falling for a little while When a stock falls the analysts would look for a reason why 好吧，這顯示 Nvidia 從低點下跌了約 5% All right, shows Nvidia down about 5% 由於這家芯片製造商 off the lows the session of the chipmaker cutting its revenue forecast due to a weaker outlook for the gaming industry want to bring in Mandips saying of a Bloomberg intelligence I’m just really confused about this price reaction The number comes out, it’s pretty terrible 非常糟糕 the outlook terrible the stock is really getting beaten up and the now is just down about 5% when Nvidia was falling last year lots of people were saying it's because the Biden administration's sanction on high-end chips sales to China which negatively affected Nvidia's market even though Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang recently said in an interview that Biden's sanction on chips is very stupid The impact of the US-China trade war on the chip industry He said frankly that the U.S.
government's export control measures has Nvidia bound hand and foot and it has an impact on a very important market for Nvidia the sales is taking a hit and in the long-run it would force China to develop its own chips instead of buying them from Nvidia maybe even one day the Chinese chips will catch up on Nvidia and become a competitor in the global market There's also the economic slow-down in 2022 the burst of the cryptocurrency bubble negatively impacted crypto mining's demands for Nvidia chips which is why it's seen a drop in sales in consecutive quarters back then, if the investors lack long-term vision then they would hit stop-loss so, if we are overly obsessed with quarterly earnings we'd miss out on a quality company's ability to overcome challenges and difficulties every business faces challenges and difficulties when I was first long Nvidia lots of people questioned me Nvidia has risen so much already can it still ten-fold?
All applications require massive computation Nvidia has an absolute advantage in chips in chips And the entire application of AI He makes very little money I knew its product revenue would continue to grow so I insisted that it was still a ten bagger so, we must have long-term vision when a quality company is faced with challenges and difficulties that's actually an opportunity for us to buy this quality stock You never think of something that you can make money in business But US Goverment not allowing instead So, Nvidia can't export some of its high-end chips to China Is this company worth investing in?
If you look back at ours, ever since the first one The first study It should be in August 2020 We've already talked about one of the risks which is its high technology that may involve national defense We already talked about a risk in the long run Whether it will be involved in the technological battlefield between the U.S and China or in a fight to decouple The founder is also a Taiwanese He is also doing research and development in the U.S definitely on the side of America when the risk has been seen I personally feel When this risk emerges the stock price falls is actually a good thing Is not that this risk did not exist before This risk has existed before It’s just that it is not reflected in the stock price I'd rather it be now that everyone sees the risk So that the stock price is discounted due to this risk Then when we bought it we clearly knew that there was a risk but we bought cheap so I think this is a good thing I’ve said this before It can be considered when it’s under $155 Now the risk comes back again 10% off $155 and get $15 off $140 is just right Of course after you bought You need to bear short-term volatility But I think $140 is an attractive price This is also my personal opinion If you close your eyes and don’t figure out a reason and don’t read news If you need the news and follow along You will end up not earning money and not being rich if you've missed out on Nvidia, it's okay I encourage you to identify the next ten-bagger in a lifetime, you only need to seize two to three ten baggers to grow wealth exponentially ow, Buffett and other investors all believe the heyday of the markets is behind us I personally also agree that we are facing headwind in the market so this is not the time for dollar cost averaging or indexing that's in the past To face the headwind that's to come I encourage you to find the links below I've prepared a sixty-minute online class to teach you how to achieve superior return in the long-term with peace of mind this is a value-packed lesson it was supposed to be behind a paywall but to thank you it's now free for a limited time don't miss out!
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