저자: Kevin · 외국인
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6월 2일 발표된 5월 비농업고용(NFP) 33.9만명 증가로 시장 예상(19.5만명)을 크게 상회. 실업률은 3.4%→3.7%로 상승. 가구조사에서는 취업자 약 31만명 감소, 실업자 44만명 증가로 엇갈림. 임금은 전월비 0.3%로 예상 부합, 전년비 4.3%로 예상보다 약함. 진행자는 연준이 금리 인상을 잠시 멈출(pause) 가능성이 높아졌다고 해석하며, 채권금리 상승과 연준 입장에 대한 분석을 전개. 강의·교육 상품 홍보 포함.
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okay oh here oh my God changing non-farm payrolls comes in at 339 000 that's a massive beat uh you've got uh we don't have the wage gain number yet the unemployment rate what the hell goes It goes up to 3.7 how do you have I mean the participation rate must have no labor force participation rate oh my God what is it what are these numbers labor force participation rate 62.6 so that's a match on expectation it's the same as the prior the average hourly earnings are 0.3 percent so it's a match the average hourly earnings year over year four point three percent which is weak weaker than expected on the year over year number what the heck but you're changing non-form payroll is a this insane beat of 339 000 versus 195.
that's a 74 B but the unemployment rate actually goes up the unemployment rate goes up from the prior of 3.4 or the expectation of 3.5 to 3.7 with a massive beat in the change in non-farm payrolls I mean like now it's just like what data is this even anymore like what is happening is is this like who's cooking the books basically oh this is quite bizarre uh okay so we'll go through the exact report uh in just a detail in just a moment but let's let's see what some of the initial things are here third Whopper number of the year at the start of 2023 economists were expecting the January jobs figure to come in at 189 000.
we got to print to 517 000 instead here we go wow another big surprise yeah no kidding but at the same time the jobs the unemployment rate Rises 0.3 is this the fed's interpretation of oh the unemployment rate is going to go up while massive jobs are being created what this is this is so weird uh okay so again this is this is now the uh uh third crazy beat in a row let's try to understand what's actually in this report because this is quite bizarre not far payroll increased 339 000 in May uh yeah this is going to be tough for the FED going to be hard to pause after such a big gain in payrolls I don't know though the average hourly earnings came in that forecast remember I don't know that the FED needs to cause unemployment I think people keep thinking that people keep thinking the FED needs to cause unemployment they don't and in a weird way they kind of just did cause unemployment by the unemployment rate going up point three percent this makes absolutely no sense at all uh okay uh 339 000 jobs in May the unemployment rate Rose uh Rose 0.3 percentage points to 3.7 I don't understand uh we'll figure it out though uh household data Rose uh let's see unemployment rate increased okay unemployed persons Rose oh here you go and the in the households data so in the households data the number of unemployed people Rose by 440 000.
okay so that's interesting so in the in the payrolls data you had a 330 000 gain and in the household survey you had a 440 000 job loss if I had to understand that correctly like this we will get through the the charts and they'll show us this in a little more detail all right unemployment rate for adult women 3.3 percent blacks 5.6 percent uh adult men 3.5 whites three point three percent Asians 2 9 uh Hispanics four percent little changed number of job losses in persons completing temporary jobs increased a three-point or 318 000 number of persons jobless less than five weeks edged up by two hundred seventeen thousand so so if I'm to sort of put little negatives here that's an increase right here that's an increase right here uh that's an increase right here so you got some negative numbers and these all seem to be on our household surveys data which remember the payrolls data is calling businesses so this is from the business point of view which basically can double count people so if you have multi-jobs you could get double counted in this survey whereas over here you don't get double counted two-year treasury yield by the way serving now oh great and April gets revised up hold on a sec let me look at this this is oh yep of course it does oh wow this is very fascinating okay so change in non-form payrolls for the last month goes from 253 000 to 294 000.
so you get a revision up of how many jobs you had the last time but then wait for this you ready for this the average hourly earnings of the last report actually went down from point five percent to point four percent so in other words in May and April we had weaker wage growth than expected we just had more jobs than expected that's that's quite literally your Goldilocks scenario it's quite literally going to make Jerome Powell very excited drone pile is gonna be like Oh I'm getting inflation down while people are getting more jobs I mean come on if you were the chairperson of the Federal Reserve you'd be feeling the same way you'd be like I'm about to get a statue at Mount Rushmore uh okay labor for the force participation rate didn't change 62.6 number uh of a person's employed part-time at 3.7 uh little change number of persons not in the labor force 5.5 million little different uh not attached was a little changed fine establishment survey so here's your establishment survey total non-farm payroll increased 339 000 in May that was the headline number we read off whereas we had those losses over in uh in the household what we have here you've got in May professional business services added 64 000 jobs similar in April government employment fifty six thousand Healthcare 52 000 Leisure and Hospitality 48 000 construction 25 000.
transportation and warehousing twenty four thousand uh that's actually surprising uh let's see couriers and Messengers up Air transport up Social Services uh employment little change that other Industries like mining oil gas manufacturing wholesale trade retail trade no I see no losses here at least in the establishment survey average hourly earnings here you go point three percent that's actually really good but both of these numbers uh I mean the point three percent add expectations the four point three percent slightly lower than expected uh most beneficials crucially Powell have been saying that they're ready to pause perhaps skipping a rate hike the whole skip is such BS if they pause they put I I really don't believe this skip narrative it doesn't make sense you go back to the Arthur Burns reputation of start stop start stop start stop it's not what they're going to want to do yeah Wild this is a 14 straight months by the way that payroll gains have beaten the median estimate wow 14 straight months uh and it's not the first time in a period that the number is beaten every single forecast the highest forecast this cycle was 250 000 and 339 000 handily beat that especially since the prior two months in total so last month was revised up like 40 000 jobs or whatever and the month before that was also revised in total those two months revised up 93 000 jobs this is nutty this is very very wild uh well it's it's good but it's wild it's not what you would expect uh let's get one of some of these tables up here so we could get a little bit detail but oh my God this is insane okay so let's look at let's look at the household status um I mean it's good it should be good the market should be seeing this is a good thing uh but we'll we'll look at just a moment so here you have the household survey household data and you have uh let's see here employed wow look at this this is why the unemployment rate went up so in the household survey employed minus three under ten thousand unemployed up 440 000.
so we have to think about this at the same time as wages aren't going up so really uh that much what's Happening Here is you're probably seeing let's take a look here household data which again reports on individuals individuals nobody really cares how you spell it Kevin just get to the point minus 339 000.
do I have that correct minus oh 310 000. okay fine minus 310 000 jobs that's the household data the payroll or the establishment survey reports on businesses that's kind of like yo business how many how many people you got on payroll that actually shot up by three hundred thirty nine thousand and then the number of unemployed shot up by four hundred and forty thousand so this is soft uh right so fed working this is soft fed working this is stupid and and then the point three percent uh wage gain month over month is good the point four or the sorry the four point three percent year over year is lower than expected and last month months month over month went down from point five to point four percent and like I don't suppose I would argue that the data is rigged but I suppose if I were going to rig the data it would look something just like this uh okay yeah wow very interesting uh so uh let's see here job gains have averaged 314 000 this year 470 000 cents 2020.
in the 10 years before the pandemic employers added about a hundred and eighty seven thousand on average so this is the 14th straight beat on average since what what is this on average since uh pandemic or all right 10 years since pandemic 10 years prior to pandemic 187k average wow this is remarkable now I'm curious to see what gear what effect this actually has on on some of our markets so well let's look at exactly that we have here's your NASDAQ look at that volume first of all coming in right here uh as the data comes out at first you get this massive dump and then you get a recovery and then you get a dump again so you're at about point three percent you're down about 15 basis points from where you were before the report on the NASDAQ if you look at the spotlight you're at 422 you're at a fibi level the Spy is basically like oh my God this is terribly great the Spy is actually up like eight basis points uh Tesla's off 1.3 you've got uh uh OCTA you know up 1.3 after that like minus 20 day it had uh yesterday yeah okay minus 17.8 C3 AI is up 13 Point uh or down 13 yesterday down another two percent today what's this carvana we were crazy like 22 yesterday Redfin six percent yesterday Nvidia five percent yesterday up 8.8 here in pre-market uh Embry air was up four percent yesterday wow okay so what about uh DJI every time I type DJI for Dow Jones Industrial I'm like drones uh okay fascinating so uh let's let's now let me see what else Wall Street is saying here uh other than Kevin still needs to raise the prices on the courses so you still have a few hours left of checking out on any of those programs or send us an email uh we've already caught up on all the emails but if so if you wanted to fill the team up again you could do that email us at staffmbecue.com but I will get it taken care of uh after I after I get my work done uh this morning so anyway Bureau of Labor Statistics notes that employment gains in May came in these sectors Business Services government Health Care construction we already went through that uh okay what is this here's an industry breakdown of I don't really care about that that's what we already went through that's stupid I don't care uh okay oh treasuries so what's going on with treasuries and then we need to see in a moment what's going on with a five-year break even the five-year Break Even lags a little bit so we'll go to that in in probably a few minutes but it's just it's just this is just insane um okay so treasure yields technically up a little bit I mean like the 10-year treasury is up like four bips who cares it's that 3.64 the treasure yields in a weird way are actually popping they were trying to pop off a little bit we don't know if that'll actually hold but I can't say that like a 4-bip rise on the 10-year treasury is that big of a deal it looks like a big deal but that's because I'm looking at a day chart and I'm literally looking at a chart going from 3.61 to 3.64 like who cares so so that's not a big deal that's so weird this is quite bizarre what are they saying here I mean I wonder if they're just equally oh oh the second I go to them they go to commercial your blastard okay let's try Bloomberg then weird economy in terms of hiring that's a little bit of worrisome for the fed and the inflation because all the disinflations coming from the goods and so if Goods prices are stabilizing and goods hiring is increasing which is what we see in this report then you know you may have the consensus outlook here which is focused on these napum surveys the pmis we got it earlier the isms you know collapsing into recession levels that may just be a nominal effect yeah well and that's also true that's the big thing is like this is not a recessionary level Igor Igor zagalowski says he has the answer okay you ready for Igor zekulowski uh his answer he's in is this Russian disinformation okay Igor says people who work from home are getting two jobs on paycheck and productivity is zero that's why we have this nonsense payroll up unemployment up hilarious I mean you're not wrong in fact there are there are some people who will get a remote job and then they'll get another remote job and they basically get another remote job and they make it their job to get as many remote jobs as possible and they'll sit there and have four or five remote shops this happened a lot during the pandemic and they basically won't even work they'll just wait to get fired and as they wait to get fired they're collecting the paycheck and then it takes the companies like four or five months to realize that remote worker isn't actually performing their duties and then they get fired but in the meantime they just got paid five jobs like for five months and then they just kind of keep adding a new job at the end so yeah to some extent remote work uh has has some catching up to do with with how we count it uh so so you're not wrong uh Igor uh so uh but Igor says this is very bearish uh so and then Gary Roberts says Igor is a bot and not Steve says Igor is Polish not Russian okay whatever I I guess the the point is yeah we gotta look at the five five year break even a let's pull that up really quick uh but the point is however you measure it uh as as weird and as rigged it feels it's very hard to look at it and say with certainty it's a hundred percent bearish like even if people are working two jobs uh fine then then uh but then again it you know like I say either way you look at it it's like if you take out the multi-counting then the fed's job is working right if you take out the multi-counting by looking at the household survey well then the FED just destroyed 330 000 jobs or 310 000 or 310 000 jobs so if you want to look at no multi-counting the FED just destroyed 310 000 jobs so if that's doing a good job if you want to look at the FED avoiding a recession well then then you could cite the payrolls reporting go the FED just created 333 9 30 339 000 jobs and then if you want to look at inflation which is the important one you look and go inflation for wages are right at expectations and actually came in softer for the year over year and the month over month last month you had a revision The Five-Year Break Even is like I don't know what to think of this here's the five year Break Even which just ticked up from 2.08 but dude look at the trend like yeah really do we really care that the five-year break even just ticked up four basis points no it is volatile it has its little you know five to twenty Point moves all the time you just want to pay attention to it to make sure it doesn't unanchor scene that's that's the big thing that regularly I would argue that everybody misses when it comes to okay Igor wants you to know he's Macedonian not polish or Russian it's exactly what a Russian would say sorry but anyway so the the big thing that the that that essentially people are missing about the FED is this idea that oh well well the FED has to get inflation down faster that's still above two percent Kevin no what is the historical precedent of the FED getting inflation down well the historical precedent of the FED getting inflation down is let's wait 20 years to get inflation down that's what they did after we got Paul volckert they waited 20 freaking years to get inflation down so in that case as long as inflation expectations are stable the fed's in no rush and Jerome Powell could be like I will have my tea and crumpets and be happy because I'm getting a building or a Mount Rushmore or something dedicated to me um this by the way is a massive Batman cup uh what's kind of cool about it is it's got this really like badass handle right here the only downside is when I hold that badass handle you can't see it anymore then again you know it's there so yeah look I know people say they're like oh Kevin you just you just always have a busy space no I don't it certainly wasn't bullish about rivienne or the market um but this isn't that bad from the biggest the most important thing that came out of this report in my opinion was the wage growth because we do not want to see an inflation or wage price spiral remember what got me to flip-flop in the first place if you go all the way back to the first flip-flop Jan 2022 it was a wage price spiral nobody's talking about a wage price spiral anymore literally nobody is talking about a wage price spiral why is nobody talking about a wage price spiral because there is no wage price spiral if anything there's like a deflationary wage price spiral potentially going to happen because of AI like if you're not learning AI you're getting left behind that's why we're releasing all the AI lectures on June 6th at 6 pm Macy's this was entertaining I tweeted this part yesterday but I want to point it out uh yesterday we we were going through uh some of retails earnings calls in the course member live stream just to check what inflation is doing that's what we do we looked at Nordstrom we looked at Macy's you look at their earnings you look at their earnings calls we do this every day we try to do fundamental analysis every single day the market is open and Macy's listen to what I wrote on the tweeters you ready for this you can look at my beautiful little yellow check mark isn't that nice it's for a team it's beautiful it's shiny it doesn't matter okay so here Macy's is literally trying to convince investors the markdowns and massive price reductions happening in stores are just following quote you ready for this here's here's Macy's explanation for markdowns and massive price reductions quote We are following our enhanced pricing algorithms We are following our pricing science tools we are conducting promotions with precision and we are simply updating our marketing messaging in other words our pricing is very robust no it's not these are all euphemisms for we suck and prices are going down but this is exactly what you would tell an investor in your earnings call because Macy's thinks you're stupid and thinks you're gonna go oh oh yeah you're dropping prices because you have enhanced pricing algorithms why don't you just come out and say you have ai to tell you you need to drop prices because you know what that would just make us really happy you're dropping prices 15 patients going away it's crazy it's crazy so uh somebody here writes uh Business Insider blamed AI for the people laid off uh maybe uh uh then uh yeah there's there's no inflation going to the Moon why is the bond market moving higher so why would the bond market move higher on this the bond market would move higher on this because the initial impression is that oh well this means the Fed is going to have to keep rates higher for longer maybe not necessarily higher but at least for longer and the longer rates are up the more uh people end up uh you know the more you end up seeing bonds get dumped and then when bonds get dumped the price of those bonds go down and the yields go up in other words what you have to be compensated to stick your money into stupid bonds has to go up the only reason you should put your money into bonds is if you really need the cash for something like you're gonna go shopping for Real Estate there's no way in hell if you're going to go shopping for Real Estate you should really probably be speculating on you know your locals is the stock markets just don't know uh or you know but otherwise your opportunity cost is massive to sit there and oh I'm making five percent fine uh but uh in addition to to this explanation for why yields are going up if you look at now the uh Futures rate monitor yesterday after the FED leak that we were going to see a pause you got this yesterday we were at a 77 chance of a pause after today's data you're actually at a 66.9 chance of a pause fascinating Steve says Macy says AI so it must be good uh yeah yeah oh that's a really interesting idea take these phrases enhance pricing algorithms and such put them into chat GPT and see what it thinks hey chatgpt if a company used the following phrases to discuss price reductions and markdowns are they trying to make investors feel good or uh uh uh while while actually facing uh a lack of pricing power or how should I interpret these phrases from Macy's in an investor earnings call paste okay let's just see what it says together these phrases are certainly trying to cast the company's pricing strategies in a positive light as they tend to do in earnings calls each of them indicates a different aspect of their pricing and marketing strategies enhanced pricing algorithms this implies the company is using advanced technology or data driven methods to determine optimal pricing and deter oh look at that it suggests they're using AI to adjust prices okay uh it could be about increasing prices where the market will pair it oh oh you're saying there's hope pricing science tools is another way of saying they're using analytical methods to determine pricing promotions and precisions suggest their sales and promotions are targeted based on the data of consumer behaviors yeah but all of this should be the default anyway updating marketing messages seems to indicate they're changing the way they communicate about their prices and promotions to customers they may be trying to emphasize value well that's exactly what everyone does when pricing is going down well these phrases do suggest the company is using more sophisticated about this is that prices they do not necessarily mean the company is facing a lack comparison power you know I disagree but okay it could be that they're trying to use these methods to maximize profits in a competitive market however if these praise phrases are being used in conjunction with the news of lower than expected profits or Revenue yes Macy's just dumped or if the company is generally strugging struggling the company just dumped it could indeed be an attempt to make a bad situation seem better oh that's actually kind of hilarious I'll this is what I like about the chat GPT I feel like you're almost kind of getting like you're you're it's like an unbiased friend you say well it could be this it could be that the only downside is is like where which is it anyway very cool so um there's the jobs data for you very fascinating and uh now let's uh let's go chat about I don't know something else uh we could listen to CNBC for a second we're gonna I want to jump into a a very interesting piece about uh talking about the history of artificial intelligence from but but or innovation from a way of what does it do to the economy and what does it do to jobs it's actually a really fascinating piece so we'll go into that in just a moment uh do keep in mind after we get our work done this morning uh we got to raise those prices on the programs on building your wealth uh or the uh increasing your income course uh whether you're an employee or you're working for yourself you're an entrepreneur you want to see how to use AI actually productively in your business you don't want to just get inundated with a stupid list of tools but you actually want to see how can a real entrepreneur who faces real entrepreneurial challenges actually use artificial intelligence in their daily lives to be a better entrepreneur or employee that's whas for and then of course all of these come with the updates that we do to them in the future so check those out link down below we'll get that done we are caught up on emails but if you want to email us at one to uh Stafford me kevin.com
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