😰 ARK Invest Getting Crushed? Cathie Wood & Jim Cramer Disagree on Growth Stocks

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결론: 진행자는 ARK Invest의 성장주 급락을 장기 매수 기회로 보며, 캐시 우드 역시 하락을 기회로 본다는 입장이다. ARK Invest 개요: 6개 액티브 펀드 상위 5개 보유 종목이 전체의 20% 이상을 차지하며, 2021년 5월 기준 테슬라 보유액은 약 27억 달러로 3개월 전 35억 달러에서 감소했다. 성장주 하락: 텔레닥, 스퀘어, 로쿠, 쇼피파이 등 ARK 보유 종목이 3개월간 20~50% 하락했고, ARK 보유 약 175개 종목 다수가 비슷한 폭으로 하락했다. 캐시 우드 발언: 하락 국면을 좋아한다고 밝혔으며, 5년 투자 기간 기준 기대 연복리 수익률이 15%에서 주가 하락으로 25~30%로 올라갔다고 설명했다. 에너지(약 40%)와 금융(약 27%) 상승으로 시장이 넓어진 것을 긍정적으로 보았다. 자금 유출 논란: 캐시 우드는 ETF 구조상 환매 대응 부담이 없어 투자 결정에만 집중할 수 있다고 주장했다. 짐 크레이머의 펀드 청산 권고는 반박했다. 진행자 전망: 올해 어느 시점엔가 큰 조정이 올 것으로 보며, 이익 실현과 현금 보유(dry powder)를 권했다. 1월 8일 발언 이후 성장주 로테이션은 2월 12일경 시작됐다. 리스크: 금리 상승에 따른 성장주 타격, 자금 유출, 조정 장기화 가능성이 있다. 진행자는 확신을 키우기 위한 리서치를 강조했다. 종목 방향(진행자 언급): 테슬라 등 ARK 보유 성장주에 대해 하락 후 장기 매수 기회라는 관점이며, 누세(Nucor)는 성장주와 다르게 움직이는 종목으로 언급됐다. 출연자 전망 요약: 진행자는 ARK의 성장주 하락을 저가 매수 기회로 보고 장기 보유 관점을 유지한다.

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01. let's touch if we made uh on this sort of current pullback do you actually welcome that as a long-term buying opportunity for a lot of the stocks you love or are you feeling the heat a little bit growth stocks have collapsed in price since the beginning of the year now that this has been going on for three months straight i figured i'd share my opinion on arkhanvest's strategy their performance and where i think things will go from here if you enjoy this type of market commentary and want to stay informed even as others continue to sell in may and go away take a look at arc invest's top five holdings which make up over 20 percent of their six actively managed funds what i'm showing you here is a bar chart of arkhanvest's fund allocations where each color is how many dollars arc has associated with this stock in this given fund for example on may 20th 2021 arkanvest had 1.9 billion dollars in tesla ticker symbol tsla and rk their flagship innovation fund another 500 million in tesla in arc w arc invest fund themed around the next generation of internet technology and another 270 million in rq their fund themed around the autonomous revolution in total arc has over 2.7 billion dollars in tesla today however kathy wood had over 3.5 billion dollars of tesla three months ago tesla is down over 30 percent from there kathy wood had over 2.5 billion dollars in teledoc ticker symbol tdoc whose stock price is down over fifty percent in the last three months five zero square ticker symbol sq down over 25 percent roku ticker symbol roku down over 30 percent shopify ticker symbol s-h-o-p down almost 20 percent since arkhanvest focuses solely on innovation stocks many of arkhanvest's roughly 175 holdings are down by this amount so what do you think is kathy wood feeling the heat should she hedge her bets or change course to capture some immediate returns comment below on what you would do if all eyes were on you and your investment strategy had been bleeding by 10 20 or even 30 percent over the last quarter seriously i read all my comments and your voice matters as for me i think arkhamvest prepares for these kinds of things here's why i say that i'm sure we're going to go through a doozy of a correction this year at some point i don't know when and i don't know why but i do know it never to hurts to take profits and to keep some powder dry so that you have the psychological wherewithal when uh when the world seems to be falling apart to pick up on bargain basement prices that was january 8th episode of in the know with kathy wood the rotation out of growth stocks started around february 12th just one month after that clip let me know below if hearing this changes your answer to my earlier question it's okay if it did that's the whole point of this channel to help you and me build up our convictions through research and analysis here's how kathy wood actually answered the earlier question let's touch if we made on this sort of current pullback do you actually welcome that as a long-term buying opportunity for a lot of the stocks you love or are you feeling the heat a little bit oh i i love this setup uh you know i the last time i was on i think i said that this rotation was good news because uh it meant the bull market was broadening out it was strengthening and uh the worst thing that could have happened to us is to have the market narrowly focus on just our ilk of stock the the innovation space uh instead it is broadened out so that year to date uh i think it's uh energy's up 40 financials are up 27 and from the peak uh in mid-february our strategies are down uh well the the ones that have been hit the hardest uh not all of them uh are down 30 to 35 percent i love that setup uh uh we're at from our our point of view side note you can tell she really wants to say we're at bargain basement prices but she probably decided not to for compliance reasons that's just my opinion but watch her stop herself from saying it we're at from our our point of view five-year time horizon nothing has changed except the price and therefore the return which at the peak of the market and of our strategy in mid-february we expected a compound annual rate of return of 15 uh on average per year from our strategies uh now that the prices are down uh that that number is somewhere in the 25 to 30 range the math here is pretty simple arc invest expects their stocks to double on average every five years that means they're looking for a 15 compound annual growth rate but now the prices of the stocks arc picks are about one-third cheaper so hitting that same price target means that they should grow at roughly 25 percent per year instead of 15.

02. that's why kathy is loving this setup so wait is this market downturn actually good for kathy's business you may love the setup kathy but it hasn't been great for your business i mean we're start to the month on record you've seen outflows of a billion dollars how are you managing these declines and there's speculations of speculation out there that if the outclos outflows continue it would be hard to meet redemptions no uh well first of all uh i don't have to worry about redemptions etfs uh the etf ecosystem is a beautiful thing for portfolio managers i highly recommend it uh and uh so what that means is when i am making decisions they are investment decisions i have nothing to do with the flows i want to clarify this because i get asked this a lot on twitter and in my discord community ever since jim cramer told kathy to close her funds a few months ago to protect herself from these kinds of outflows it's important to understand how much time arc invest spends managing flows and other fund mechanics to keep their investors happy versus actually researching technologies and companies to invest in in the first place let me show you the original jim cramer clip and then kathy wood's response to it kathy wood's arc i saw on twitter this morning you asked what stock is she going to save today well i like to take a it's kind of i mean it's a little bit of a poll it's a little bit of a parlor game she's buying uh she's the best for his got to say that um she's buying every stock that should be crushed by uh the interest rate move i mean that's these are classic long uh dated assets that she's buying and that's what you're supposed to be selling but she did have a lot of outflows yesterday though jim well what can i say i mean by the way i mean a number that's so big it's probably larger than her entire fund was only a handful of years ago right so instead you just see outflows and you say okay which one is she going to stop is she going to stop square today square did not have a great conference call and they're all bitcoin bitcoin so maybe she stops the decline in square this has become the ultimate parlor game carl we look at these things instead of investing instead of trying to figure out what the right thing to do is do you buy j and j we are looking and saying you know what holy cow she is making a statement right now with aero environment selling it again how did this happen how did this person become what we do for a living remember to kathy wood close your fund close it listen to what the late jack bogle would say close concentrate on performance not on trying to deploy capital it's okay it's no sin it's what the great ones do peter lynch did it i mean you just close it you don't just sit here and just keep taking in money and taking a look at what stocks down a lot and saying you know what i'm doing a cold shot that's it tesla 620 i'm done tesla goes hard you know that's the kind of hubris no david help here what now here's kathy wood on episode 9 of benzinga's raz report responding to that kramer clip explaining why she doesn't close her funds or change her strategy to focus on performance and how she manages her time as arc invests chief investment officer concentrate on performance not on trying to deploy capital it's okay it snows in okay now i should just shut up and let you take over your response well uh he's talking about the etfs it is not possible to to close an etf it's just not possible uh so i'm i'm i think he's referring to the mutual fund industry and that's not what we are uh but i think the other mistake that um that that commentators are making uh is that they they don't understand that i have nothing to do with the flows in other words the etf ecosystem outside of arc the market makers the authorized participants they are creating and redeeming baskets of stock which are the stocks we're invested in but i am not seeing i'm not having to invest those flows or raise money to satisfy redemptions at all i am investing do pure and simple i am making investment decisions i am not dealing with flows this is such a luxury in a volatile market to be able to focus only on the investing side and not to be forced to do anything because of flows one way or the other and from that point of view i think etfs are a superior wrapper for the portfolio manager now mutual funds of their place and defined contribution funds and so forth i'm not putting them down but i think etfs for an investor a portfolio manager are a better rapper so because the funds are regular old etfs arc invest is set up in a way where all they have to focus on is research specifically into technology and innovation that's how they come up with their list of stocks to buy and sell over time that's why this channel is so research heavy and focuses on arc invest because in my opinion there's none of this other associated with managing flows closing down funds worrying about leverage or any other confusing market mechanics in an effort to impress short-term shareholders arc just researches market needs innovative solutions and invests in the companies they think will provide the best product market fit down the road now that i've shown you how all the pieces fit together keeping some powder dry to take advantage of falling stock prices stock picks based on research and performance based only on buying low and selling high let's take a look at this incredibly deep follow-up analysis on kathy's comments by none other than jim cramer take a listen to what kathy said friday five-year time horizon nothing has changed except the price so jim does that speak to you nothing has changed except the price but i listened to that interview which was quite good i thought about a head coach uh for a southern nfl team who uh at halftime was down 21 to nothing and he started his speech to his team saying we've got them just where we want them and i remember saying why did you say they just i don't know it's like the most stupid thing you could say well when you're down 30 and others are up um i guess you got him just where you want him david so is jim cramer right or do you think kathy is actually in a good position to and stick with me here buy low and sell high well it does give you an opportunity to buy even more yeah oh yeah you believe a lot as she believes listen over time she has had the best performance five year and if she was then and this is now okay yes true good enough they're killing these stocks taking all the air out of these stocks and including her relatively unknown stocks now they can come back carl the five year is that's terrific and i hope that the people who are in there carl have a five-year perspective because i think they will do quite well but right now there are people who expected a five-day return and which is what she gave you and that's struggling including the man who was on saturday night live whose stock as much as i love him and he did say that he's like an ad what did he call himself what do you expect some kind or gentler chill guy but i mean you know tesla's not been a great stop these things all worked for a period of time and now carl they're not working you got to be in nucor and these people don't know from core by the way nucor ticker symbol nue is an american steel production company whose stock started to rally right as ark stocks started to fall it's a stock that moves very differently from advanced technology and growth stocks is that really the kind of company jim cramer thinks we should be investing in by the way if you want to know my thoughts on jim cramer check out the video linked in the top right corner of the screen right now or you can find it in the description below i'm sure you'll get a good laugh or two and speaking of a good laugh or two well maybe they're the next google and facebook new core no not you no i'm talking about woodstock that's what i call them by the way who woodstock who do you call woodstock you would stop oh oh all those stocks well that's yeah i mean why not that was like an unbelievable concert it was yeah well that's woodstock it was in bethel new york not woodstock but yeah hopefully this episode provided you with some clarity on why i'm covering arkhanvest even as their biggest position tumble anywhere from 20 to 50 percent over the last three months and the mainstream media continues to pummel them if i helped you build your own convictions let me know by what other people are seeing as arcs collapse i personally am seeing as a huge discount on some of the most well-researched innovative companies in the public markets and my conviction in arkhamvest's performance only grows as share prices continue to fall let me know in the comments below if you see the same thing i do or if you think i'm missing something big your voice matters