저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 주식 매도는 가격 등락이 아니라 더 나은 대안 등장, 기업 경제성 근본 변화, 단일 종목 비중 과대 세 가지 상황에서 결정해야 한다. 매도 판단의 잘못된 기준: 매수가나 현재 등락에 집착하는 것은 잘못이며, 주식은 투자자가 얼마에 샀는지 신경 쓰지 않는다. 첫째, 더 나은 투자처가 나타났을 때: 버핏은 기회비용을 중시해 PER 3배 종목을 팔고 2배 종목을 사는 식으로 교체했다. 1959년 Commonwealth Trust 매도 사례(주당 80달러, 내재가치 135달러)를 예로 들었다. 최근 버핏의 조언과 차이: 현재 그는 자회사는 저수익이어도 매도하지 않으며 '영원히 보유'를 선호한다. 인적 관계와 신뢰를 수익보다 중시한다는 취지다. 1968년 서한에서도 지배 기업의 영구 보유는 매매 차익보다 낮지만 만족스러운 장기 수익을 준다고 밝혔다. 둘째, 기업의 경제적 특성이 크게 변했을 때: 2020년 항공주 매도(코로나 영향), 2014년 워싱턴포스트 매도(신문 경쟁우위 약화), 2014년 테스코 매도(경영진 문제)가 예시로 나왔다. 발표자 본인도 2016년 브렉시트 이후 Kopparbergs 보유 관련 매도 실수를 언급했다. 주의점: 근본 변화는 드물게 일어나며, 뉴스에 놀라 우량 기업을 파는 것은 보통 나쁜 결정이라는 1997년 버핏 서한 인용. 셋째, 단일 종목 비중이 지나치게 커졌을 때: 1967년 아메리칸 익스프레스가 파트너십 자금의 40%를 차지해 비중을 줄였다. 포트폴리오가 작을수록 한 종목에 더 많이 투자할 수 있다는 점도 언급. 판단 질문: 지금 이 주식을 보유하지 않았다면 오늘 새로 살 것인가? 아니라면 매도를 고려한다. 매도 시 세금과 거래비용이 발생하므로 '더 사기'와 '팔기' 사이에 '아무것도 하지 않기' 구간이 있으며 이를 과소평가하면 안 된다. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산에 대한 방향성 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
The decision to sell a stock can be rather confusing. Do you sell it because it has gone up, to secure a profit? Do you sell it because it has gone down, you know, cut your losses short? Or perhaps you should sell it because it has been flatlining while all your friends are getting rich on bitcoin? Luckily, Warren Buffett, the oracle of Omaha and the sage of securities, has got us covered on this subject.
The world’s greatest investor has discussed the art of selling during quite a few different occasions. In this video, you’ll learn three practical situations in which it is time to sell your stock market holdings – Warren Buffett style. By the way, if you’ve only heard what Warren Buffett has had to say on this topic more recently you are probably doing it wrong.
This is the Swedish Investor, bringing you the best tips and tools for reaching financial freedom through stock market investing. Before getting into the three situations which should have you sell a stock, let’s first discuss why the character in the intro does his selling all wrong. It’s because he is focusing too much on what he paid.
Buffett says this: Yeah, one of the important things in stocks is that the stock does not know that you own it. You have all these feelings about it. You remember what you paid. You remember who told you about it. All these little things, you know? And it — you know, it doesn’t give a damn. It just sits there.
And it — you know, a stock at 50, somebody’s paid 100, they feel terrible. Somebody else paid 10, they feel wonderful. All these feelings, and it has no impact whatsoever. Okay, so if the fact that a stock has gone up, down or is just moving sideways shouldn’t have any impact whatsoever on your selling decision, then what should?
The first situation when Warren Buffett wants to sell is this: When something better shows up The first 20 years of investing for me — or maybe more my decision to sell almost always was based on the fact that I found something else I was dying to buy. I mean, I sold stocks at — you know, at three times earnings to buy stocks at two times earnings You know that I love to talk about opportunity costs.
If you put money in the shares of company A, you cannot put that same money in shares of company B. This sometimes makes for some tough decisions; you may have to abandon a company that you really like for something which is even more terrific. Here’s an example from his 1959 letter to partners in Buffett Partnership Limited, when Buffett switched his position in a bank called Commonwealth Trust into the mapping business of Sanborn Maps Late in the year, we were successful in finding a special situation where we could become the largest holder at an attractive price, so we sold our block of Commonwealth obtaining $80 per share … I might mention that the buyer of the stock at $80 can expect to do quite well over the years.
However, the relative undervaluation at $80 with an intrinsic value $135 is quite different from a price of $50 with an intrinsic value of $125, and it seemed to me that our capital could better be employed in the situation which replaced it. Here’s where you may have gone wrong with your selling if you’ve listened to the more recent advise from Warren Buffett.
Today, he wouldn’t sell his wholly-owned businesses EVEN IF he expects them to deliver sub-par investment returns. It is a little bit misleading to listen to the advice that Warren Buffett’s favourite holding period is “forever”. Holding forever is just a personal preference of his these days, he prioritizes the personal relationships he’s been able to build up with the managers of the subsidiaries at Berkshire Hathaway more than making a few extra percentages of returns.
To break of relationships with people that I like, and people that have joined me because they think it is a permanent home [Berkshire] – to do that simply because somebody waves a big check at me would be like selling one of my children because someone waves a big check so I won’t do that. And I want to tell my partners I won’t do it so that they are not disappointed with me.
The Berkshire Hathaway “Owner’s Manual” was first presented in an annual shareholder letter to Berkshire shareholders back in 1983, but this thinking of Buffett’s goes further back than that. Have a look at what he said in a partnership letter from 1968: As I have mentioned before, we cannot make the same sort of money out of permanent ownership of controlled businesses that can be made from buying and reselling such businesses, or from skilled investment in marketable securities.
Nevertheless, they offer a pleasant long-term form of activity (when conducted in conjunction with high grade, able people) at satisfactory rates of return.” Buffett’s preference for reselling businesses started to change after an experience with Dempster Mill Manufacturing in the early 1960s. A whole town pretty much hated Buffett for buying their largest employer and then slashing down costs and jobs, in order to make it profitable for a sell.
However, if we look at his partnership letter from 1961, when he also operated with less capital we’ll see what I suspect that Buffett would suggest us smaller investors to do: Our bread-and-butter business is buying undervalued securities and selling when the undervaluation is corrected. It’s not personal Sonny.
It’s strictly business. Another situation in which Warren Buffett would sell a stock is this: When the economic characteristics of a business change in a major way Our inclination is not to sell things, unless we get really discouraged perhaps with the management, or we think the economical characteristics of the business changed in a big way.
And, I mean, that happens. Let’s look at a few examples of major changes which have caused Warren Buffett to sell historically: Just recently, in 2020, he sold his stakes in a few of the major airline companies, noting that “the world has changed for airlines” due to the coronavirus. In 2014, Buffett sold off one of his most important investments of all time the newspaper The Washington Post.
During many years, Buffett talked about how the world had changed for newspapers, and that The Post didn’t possess nearly the same competitive advantages as when Berkshire purchased it in 1973. Finally, he decided to cut it loose. Then there is Buffett’s investment in the grocery chain Tesco. Buffett doesn’t specify why, but he had an issue with the management of this company, which was the reason for him selling his piece of the business in the end.
He was out of the position by 2014, realizing a small net loss. On a more personal note, one of my own worst investing selling mistakes could perhaps have been avoided had I know about this a few years ago. I used to own a Swedish beverage company called Kopparbergs, which had more than half of its revenues in Great Britain.
In July 2016, Britain voted to leave the EU, complicating trade with other EU countries. One could argue that I should have sold back then, instead of, you know … later. It’s done! However, I may mention this: Fundamental changes happen quite rarely. In his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders from 1997, Buffett hints this when he says that: Selling fine businesses on "scary" news is usually a bad decision.
Finally, Buffett is all for a concentrated portfolio, and you know that I am too, but a situation when you must also sell, or, well, cut down, is this: When a single holding gets too big Yes, the age-old advice of not putting all your eggs in one basket is true, but you don’t have to be as strict as most people suggest.
The smaller your portfolio is, the more you can afford to put in a single stock. Consider that Warren Buffett had 40% of his partnership’s money in American Express in 1967, when he was managing more than today’s equivalent of $500m. The stock eventually took him over this 40% limit rule, and he cut down on his position to maintain some sort of diversification.
By the way, American Express is just the 4th largest commitment that Warren Buffett has ever made. Again, the person in the intro of this video is wrong because he focusses on the purchase price. A stock doesn’t give a damn what you paid for it. A useful question to ask is the following: If I didn’t already own the stock, would I still want to make the investment today?
If not, then you should probably sell. Wanting to keep a stock and wanting to buy more of it are not the exact same thing, but they are closely related. They are not the same because selling a stock to buy something else is associated with having to pay taxes on your profits and additionally, it will incur transaction costs.
Therefore, there’s a small gap between the “buy more”-zone and the “sell”-zone. This could be called the “do nothing”-zone, a highly underestimated zone in today’s world of investing. Sell a stock if you’ve found something better, if something fundamental has changed, or if a single holding gets too large.
Now you know the selling part. If you want to know what Warren Buffett is looking for when he is buying a stock, here’s a long video with lots of meat for you. Here, you’ll learn about the 25 most important investments of Warren Buffett of all time. You’ll learn what these investments looked like at the time of purchase. Cheers guys, hope to see you again real soon!
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