저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
래리 핑크(블랙록 CEO)의 경고를 인용해, 미국-이란 전쟁이 장기화되면 유가가 배럴당 50달러까지 오르고 글로벌 경기침체·인플레이션·금리 상승이 올 수 있다고 주장. 블랙록 운용자산 약 14조 달러(리라이언스 시총의 50~55배)를 근거로 제시. 전쟁이 빨리 끝나면 이란 석유 수출 재개로 유가 하락·성장 회복 가능. 단기 위험은 있으나 장기적으로는 낙관. 인도는 원유 약 85% 수입 의존으로 무역적자·루피 압박 우려.
다듬은 글
The way things are going around the world right now. Especially in the Middle East, looking at the ongoing tension and conflict between America and Iran, it is being said that now the world is moving towards another recession. In such a situation, can oil prices increase so much that petrol reaches ₹200 per liter and your savings, investments, SIPs, whatever you do, everything gets put in danger.
We are saying this because the world's biggest investment giant has given this warning. He has said that if this war between America and Iran continues for long, the economy of the entire world may be shaken. And this warning is not being given by any common man, but by the person who has the power to manage assets worth 14 trillion dollars, that is, if seen in Indian currency, approximately Rs 1100 lakh crore.
So who is giving this warning? How serious is the warning? Is recession really coming ? And what will be its impact on India and on your money, your savings? In this video we are going to talk with facts and data. So first of all let me tell you that this warning has been given by Larry Fink. He is the CEO of BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company.
Let us tell you how big the Black Rock is. BlackRock manages assets worth approximately 14 trillion, as mentioned just now, approximately 11 lakh crore. And if we try to compare it with an Indian company, then the total market cap of India's largest company, Reliance Industries, is around ₹ 18 lakh crore.
That means Black Rock is a company 50 to 55 times bigger than Reliance Industries. So you can imagine how big an asset management company BlackRock is and this is the reason why Larry Fing's words are taken seriously by the world's big leaders, central banks and investors. Now, according to Larry Finkelstein, if this war between Iran and the US continues for more than a year, the global economy may go into recession and the biggest reason for this will be the sharp rise in oil prices.
If oil becomes expensive then everything will become expensive. Food will become expensive, transport will become expensive , electricity will become expensive, everything will become expensive. Now in the meantime the question also arises that why oil remains the biggest threat? So let us tell you that oil is the biggest fuel of the world's economy.
There is oil. Transport, industry, electricity, food, supply, everything depends on oil. And if we talk about the import of oil specifically from India, then the oil that is imported is imported through the State of Hormos. India has a large part and Iran has a kind of dominance over the State of Hormos.
He is in possession. Only if he wishes, the oil tankers can pass through there and if he does not wish, the oil supply can stop completely. So especially if we talk about India, most of the things here depend on oil. Now Lerifing has also said that in such a scenario the stock market can also fall rapidly.
That means a crash could occur. If there is a global recession, growth will slow down. The companies will incur losses and the biggest impact will be that jobs will be affected. People will also lose their jobs. Now the price of oil can go up to $50 per barrel. Larry Fink has told this. Currently it is between about $ and $6 $10.
This means that an increase of almost 50% is possible from here. As Lerifing mentioned here. And its impact will be directly on petrol and diesel. If petrol and diesel become expensive then transport cost will increase. The price of everything will increase. Now Larry Fing has also given two scenarios.
So what is the first scenario? If the war continues for long, crude prices could reach $50 per barrel. Due to this, inflation will increase rapidly and obviously a global recession will also occur. But in the second scenario, if the war ends quickly. However, Donald Trump has said that he will continue this war for the next two to three weeks.
So if this war ends soon, Lerifing believes that Iran will start exporting oil again. This will bring down oil prices, crude prices and increase global growth. This means that either something very bad will happen or some good things will be seen happening here. Now the biggest question is what will be its impact on you and the common man?
So if we talk about the direct impact, petrol and diesel will become expensive and your daily travel cost will increase. Food items will become expensive because if the transport cost increases, the food items that are supplied from one place to another will also become expensive. EMIs and interest rates will increase because as inflation increases, interest rates will also increase and this may make your EMIs expensive .
It may be more and there is job risk. Companies will do cost cutting. So in such a situation there is a danger of losing jobs also. Now India is the world's largest oil importer. We import about 85% of our oil. This means that if global oil becomes expensive, it will have a direct impact on India. Trade deficit will increase, rupee will come under pressure and inflation will definitely increase.
At the same time, the International Energy Agency has described it as the biggest energy crisis in history. If the situation is not brought under control, it could also become an oil crisis like the 1970s. This has been claimed. Now Larry Fingar has given two views here also. In the short term, he has said that there is a danger visible in the short term.
All those who invest money in the market or make investments. There is danger in the short term. But in the long term he is optimistic and positive. He believes that the markets will eventually recover. So overall the world is standing at a very sensitive juncture. If the Iran war continues for long, recession is almost certain.
But if the situation comes under control quickly, global growth can also return rapidly. This means that the economy of the entire world is currently dependent on the outcome of a war and the outcome of the US-Iran war will decide which direction the economy takes.
Comments 0