저자: Alex진행자본인,소속미상 · 외국인
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2022년 말 기준 반도체 업황 부진(PC 수요 감소, 재고 과잉, 금리 상승)을 설명하며, 2023년에도 반도체 기업들이 부진할 수 있다고 봄. 그럼에도 AMD(데이터센터 점유율 확대), TSMC(첨단 파운드리 독점적 지위), ASML(EUV 장비 독점)을 유망 종목으로 제시. 중국 수출 규제와 경기침체를 주요 리스크로 언급.
다듬은 글
rare downgrade today for AMD shares of Nvidia sank on Monday crashing over the past two quarters here gaming is expected to fall 33 year over year absolutely horrendous they miss consensus by like a billion and a half dollars and the number comes out it's pretty terrible they came in well below its initial guidance that is unheard of the stock is really getting beaten up clearly we didn't meet our expectations nor shareholders expectations it's been an incredibly rough year for tech stocks including some of the biggest names in their Industries Nvidia stock has collapsed by 50 percent over the last year and it's still going down same thing with Intel stock which is actually at the lowest price that it's been in over eight years even Tesla stock isn't safe going down around 60 percent in the last three months alone with interest rates rising and a big recession on the way in 2023 there's only one question left to ask are all tech stocks doomed or are there some queer winners that are still worth investing in your time is valuable so let's get right into it first let me quickly recap why the market has been so terrible for chip designers and Hardware companies throughout all of 2022 because a lot of this will still apply in 2023 as well during the pandemic most consumers got some form of stimulus checks while most businesses were forced to shut down and send people home so while we were stuck inside a lot more people spent money upgrading the things that let them work from home computers laptops desktops and smartphones but businesses shutting down means that nobody was making or moving the very same computers and components that everybody was trying to buy with Supplies Plus skyrocketing demand equals massive price inflation which means massive revenues for the semiconductor companies who enjoyed having this captive audience full of people with extra money to spend at their Peak PC shipments were up by almost 60 percent year over year compare that to the five years before where the PC market was hardly growing at all now that we have a lot more data to look at we know that this growth was pulled forward that means that people who weren't in a rush to upgrade their computers decided to upgrade them anyway but here's the thing as chips keep getting better and better consumers can go longer and longer between these upgrades so if you're somebody who's using your computer for things like checking email browsing the internet streaming video and just chatting with your friends you can probably go for five years between upgrades at this point that's how good current processors and graphics cards are getting but it's even worse than that because almost every company double or triple ordered every product that they could knowing that their supply chains were being stretched thin many of them even spent extra money to make sure that they got their goods just in case that order was their last until the supply chains were fixed and in many cases consumer demand was virtually gone by the time that these massive orders were fulfilled thanks to the world's economies opening back up and people heading back into the office now everybody is using their newly upgraded computers even less than before high Supply and low demand left many semiconductor companies selling their products at steep discounts which look even worse when you compare them to the premiums that people were paying just one year earlier that's why we're seeing disappointing earnings calls and guidance almost across the board which lowers every Company's stock prices not to mention Rising interest rates which make bond yield rise which makes stocks look even riskier which lowers their price even more which makes it more expensive for these businesses to raise more money to keep growing which lowers their stock price even more which well you get the picture my point is that there's a lot of very real reasons for High-Tech growth companies to be underperforming right now and into next year but not all companies are created equal there are three semiconductor companies that I think will really outperform the rest let's start with AMD AMD stock has been in a landslide all year and is now down by almost 60 percent year to date even though the PC market is declining the data center Market is still expected to grow as more workloads and services move to the cloud Intel has dominated the data center CPU market for decades but AMD has been slowly eroding Intel's market share when it comes to servers and data centers according to Mercury research AMD has almost an 18 market share in data centers today and this is their 14th consecutive quarter of market share growth against Intel amd's market share grew by 7.3 percent and their revenue from data centers grew by 45 percent thanks to huge cloud service providers like Amazon web services and Microsoft's Azure using their server CPUs one reason is because AMD can pack a ton of cores onto a single chip they expect their epic line of server processors to have up to 128 cores in 2023 these ships have much better specs and tend to cost even less than Intel's current Xeon chips another key reason that AMD has been able to gain so much ground over the last few years is that Intel has faced several pretty substantial production delays with their 10 nanometer chips Intel's next Generation server processors called Sapphire Rapids were supposed to come out in 2021 but now they're planned for release in January 2023 so they've been watching AMD release better and better processors for years now while Intel Xeon chips keep losing ground AMD is also the dominant chip maker when it comes to video game consoles providing the semi-custom chips for the PlayStation 4 PlayStation 5 steam deck Xbox series s and series X consoles On a related note AMD has also seen growing demand in embedded systems for example in cars AMD provides the embedded chips behind the infotainment displays in the Tesla Model S and the model X and their chips will also be found in Tesla's model 3 and model wise infotainment systems as well most of amd's embedded chip business is actually going to come from their acquisition of xilinx which is the market leader for field programmable gate arrays or fpgas reprogrammable logic is becoming more and more appealing for applications that need to update after a chip is made and installed for example machine learning algorithms that get retrained and re-architected over time this is why reprogrammable logic chips are also becoming more mainstream in data centers since fpgas can be reconfigured via code one fpga can serve many different purposes inside a data center which removes the need for a variety of different application specific chips so amd's xilinx enhanced chips and their chiplets could play a key role in increasing the power efficiency of their high performance data center processors by around 30X over the next four years which will make them very attractive options further eating into Intel's market share and speaking of very attractive options MooMoo is a One-Stop stock market app that helps investors in the US Singapore and Australia find great Investments and execute their strategies they're owned by futu which is a company on the NASDAQ that means they follow all SEC regulations they've been around for over a decade and they're backed by institutions like tencent and Goldman Sachs right now MooMoo is giving away up to 20 free stocks each valued at up to two thousand dollars here's how it works when you sign up and open an account you can draw one free stock then if you fund your account with a hundred dollars you can draw out nine more free stocks and if you fund your account with a thousand dollars you can draw another 10 free stocks just make sure to keep your account funded at that level for at least 60 days this is a limited time offer so go try the app using my link in the description and enjoy all the free stocks alright while AMD has been gaining market share against Intel in data centers this next company is dominating Intel in a different Market altogether tsmc the Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing company has a 56 market share when it comes to manufacturing the world's chip Supply even crazier ninety percent of all advanced chips in the world are made by tsmc like the ones found inside Apple's iPhones nvidious gpus and even the future versions of Tesla's both self-driving chips in fact AMD is actually set to become tsmc's second largest client for five nanometer chips right behind Apple tsmc manufactures Apple's a series chips for iPhones and their M series chips that go into Apple's desktops MacBooks and iPads Apple accounted for about 25 percent of tsmc's overall revenues last year at first I was hesitant to put TSM stock on this list because it just shot up by 20 over the last few weeks but the reason that TSM stock jumped so much so fast is because Warren Buffett just invested over four billion dollars into tsmc Warren Buffett probably knows a ton about their relationship with apple since Berkshire Hathaway owns over five percent of the company that's right Berkshire Hathaway holds over 120 billion dollars of Apple stock today but besides tsmc's connection to Apple Warren Buffett's big investment implies something else it means he must believe that China won't invade Taiwan which is where most of tsmc's foundries are located today even though they plan to keep their most advanced fabrication nodes in Taiwan tsmc is to diversifying the countries that they build chips in tsmc originally planned to spend 12 billion dollars on a Fab in Arizona that will produce five nanometer chips but they just changed that commitment in two very big ways first they decided to upgrade that Fab which was already under construction to produce four nanometer chips after its completion by 2024.
second they increased their commitment from 12 billion dollars to 40 billion and they're spending that extra money building another Fab that will produce even more advanced chips using their new three nanometer process once the Fab is completed by 2026 these two Fabs will only have a combined final output of about 50 000 Wafers a month which is about half of the output of one of their gigafabs back in Taiwan but according to CNBC that's actually enough to meet the chip demand in the United States this is such an important milestone for protecting our chip Supply that President Joe Biden as well as the CEOs of Apple Nvidia AMD and Micron all attended tsmc's announcement event at Apple reserved one third of tsmc's capacity in Arizona making them the site's largest customer Nvidia and AMD also plan to be big customers of tsmc's U.S Fabs and just last month there were reports suggesting that Tesla is dropping Samsung for their next generation of full self-driving chips which are going to be built using tsmc's four nanometer process instead this will be the first time that tsmc will supply chips to an electric vehicle company those chips will probably be produced in Taiwan to start with but some could end up being built in that four nanometer Arizona Fab once it comes online in 2024 so tsmc made this list because they're able to defend their dominant position in the semiconductor Market they're receiving huge investments from the best investors and tech companies on the planet and they're lowering their overall Risk by diversifying where they're making the most advanced chips in the world but while AMD is growing its market share and tsmc is already dominating theirs this third company has a straight up Monopoly when it comes to building the machines Behind these chips in 1984 asml was spun out of Phillips a Dutch electronics company that realized the potential of photo lithography for making chips in fact asml stands for advanced semiconductor materials lithography and they're currently the only company on Earth that makes extreme ultraviolet lithography machines these are the machines that help companies like tsmc make the smallest and most sophisticated chips in the world each euv lithography machine has over one hundred thousand parts and needs dozens of trucks and multiple cargo planes to be transported around 90 percent of the parts are actually made by hundreds of outside companies from all around the world with asml acting as the system's integrator that way asml doesn't need to be the best in the world at making each individual part or subsystem many of which require insane amounts of engineering to be built to spec instead they've built up a huge network of exclusive deals with hundreds of very specialized suppliers because of this experts say that it could take decades and billions of dollars for any other company on the planet to challenge asml's mode for example the designs etched into each wafer are made using euv light that's created from Tiny explosions of molten tin that are almost 80 times hotter than the surface of the Sun that light is then bounced off special mirrors made by a company called Zeiss these are the flattest mirrors on Earth they're said to be so flat that if Zeiss made a mirror the size of the United States the biggest bump in that mirror would be the size of a speck of dust it would actually be much more risky for asml to be responsible for making all of these complex and intricate components themselves in addition to having to put them together each machine currently costs around 200 million dollars which is more than most companies on Earth will ever be worth because of that asml really only has a few customers in fact just three companies tsmc Samsung and Intel accounted for over 80 percent of asml's business last year they're also some of asml's largest shareholders which means that their incentives are really aligned that's another reason why no company is trying to disrupt asml's deep move asml stock is up by around 20 percent after their latest earnings call went much better than expected they also recently held an investor day where they announced that they were increasing production capacity to meet the long-term demands of the industry as well as instituting a 12 billion dollar share buyback program so even though asml stock looks expensive today at a price to earnings ratio of around 40.
it definitely belongs on every Investor's watch list I'll be coming out with an engineering teardown video on asml's machine soon because they're absolutely mind-blowing I also want to be clear that there are real risks to investing in these three stocks today and I went over a few of them in the beginning of this episode inflation and Rising interest rates reduced customer demand and excess chip supplies the incoming recession more workloads moving to the cloud and mobile devices and more time between upgrades as current ships fill more at home Computing needs for longer but there's also the ban on AI chips and other trade restrictions that we should consider many of the most advanced designs chips parts and machines coming out of AMD tsmc and asml are being restricted from going to China which is the world's second largest economy and first largest consumer Market only time will tell how long these restrictions will be held up and whether or not the markets outside of China will grow to close this Gap but there's an even bigger risk to consider for growth stocks in 2023 so before you invest your hard-earned money
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