저자: Tom · 외국인
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결론: 버크셔 해서웨이의 일본 종합상사 5곳 투자(약 60억 달러)는 저평가·현금흐름·저금리 엔화 채권 조달을 근거로 한 전형적 버핏식 가치투자이며, 일본 주식시장은 장기간 저조했지만 저평가 종목 탐색 가치가 있다는 주장. 투자 배경: 버크셔 자회사 National Indemnity가 12개월에 걸쳐 5개 일본 종합상사에 약 60억 달러 투입. 13F 기준 상위 보유 종목 수준의 규모. 투자 논거: 종합상사는 에너지·제조·기술·수입 등 다각화된 사업구조로 일본 경제 전반 성장에 노출되며 하락 리스크가 낮다고 봄. 미국의 J&J, 3M, 코카콜라 등은 PER 20배 이상인 반면 일본 종목은 PER 약 5배 수준으로 매우 저렴하고, 일부는 잉여현금흐름 수익률 약 20%라고 주장. 자금 조달: 버크셔는 2019년 엔화 표시 채권(약 40억 달러 상당)과 유로 제로금리 채권을 발행. 일본 금리가 극도로 낮아 거의 무이자로 자금을 조달해 일본 주식에 투자하는 구조라고 설명. 일본 증시 역사: 1980년대 버블(황궁 가치가 캘리포니아 전체와 맞먹는다는 과장 사례, 실러 PER 100 이상, 미국 닷컴 버블 고점 약 40 대비 2.5배 이상)로 고점 매수자는 30년 가까이 무수익. 현재는 현금 보유가 많고 저평가. 리스크·조건: 일본 기업은 주주보다 직원·이해관계자를 우선하며 현금을 과다 보유하는 문화가 있어 미국식 주주환원 기대는 제한적. 버핏의 과거 일본 투자 중 일부는 기대만큼 재평가되지 않았다는 점을 언급. 영상은 일본 주식이 '앞으로 1~3개월' 가격이 오를지에 대한 단기 방향 발언은 없음, 장기 관점 위주. 출연자 전망: 일본 저평가 종목은 장기적으로 유망한 사냥터이나 주주환원 문화 때문에 재평가가 보장되지는 않는다는 신중한 입장.
다듬은 글
hey guys tom here from the investing on tom ed uh warren buffett's company berkshire hathaway more specifically their subsidiary national indemnity recently put around six billion us dollars to work and five of the largest japanese trading companies so i want to get into all the reasons why i personally think that buffett made that investment and i also want to talk through some of the bond offerings actually and some of the debts that uh berkshire hathaway has taken on over in japan and yen denominated sort of bond offerings and i also want to talk through some of the general history of the japanese stock market over the past several decades talk through the bubble that they had in the 80s how that has led to quite poor stock market performance over the past few decades at this point um and why there are potentially some really really cheap stocks over there uh which could be worth hunting through so uh that's what we're going to talk about in today's video hit like on the video if you do enjoy it really helps out the channel but for now let's get straight into it so berch's steak and these five companies the names of which i will put up on the screen here was acquired over a period of 12 months basically this is a fairly common uh characteristic of many of berkshire's large investments over the past few years apple is another really good example of this where berkshire frankly is so big that it takes a very very long time to put that money to work in order for them to continue to accumulate enough shares to get a reasonable ownership percentage in the company it's not like you or me where we can go out and make one trade and have that ownership kind of locked in in like 10 seconds um when you're working with billions and billions of dollars it takes a long time to accumulate those shares especially without trying to um you know make big news of it as you're going through that purchase and um spiking the price up or anything like that so with apple we saw um that it took buffett around probably 18 months to make his to get his full position established um and same kind of thing happened over here in japan so it took 12 months to acquire the stake um that's six billion dollar investment just to kind of put it in context if we look through berkshire hathaway's 13f um a six billion us dollar investment is equivalent to about the same as berkshire's wells fargo investment it makes it probably about the seventh largest holding if you combine all of these five japanese investments so it's a very substantial stake for berkshire hathaway and it immediately goes fairly high on the list in terms of berkshire's overall investment portfolio now in terms of the companies themselves these are general trading companies and uh when i first saw the news around trading companies i was thinking you know as burch hathaway investing and like uh you know the next robin hood or some sort of brokerage house or something like that but no these trading companies uh basically help to distribute goods throughout japan so um japan imports a lot of their goods they don't have a country which is rich in natural resources like in australia or new zealand or some other parts of the world so they do a lot of importing um and these companies are very diversified in terms of their streams of business so they really don't have um one core business that that all of these things do it's not a basket bit like buffett made a couple of years back on the airlines where he was sort of sort of looking at one specific business and invested across a basket of companies that operate in their industry um these are conglomerates they're they're training companies made up of several different lines of business that is energy manufacturing technology general imports all sorts of stuff um and these are very large companies um relative to japan's overall economy they are very important uh and kind of japan moving forward and really these are going to get warren buffett and burch hathaway exposed to really general growth in japan it's not a bit on one particular industry or anything like that um these are companies that are going to be broadly collecting profits uh on the general growth of the japanese economy over time so the elephant in the room here is why japan um i think there's a couple of reasons why buffett went across to japan in order to make those investments the first thing frankly is japanese companies are just way way way cheaper than many of the us equivalents um it's a little bit hard to find a like for like comparison between these japanese companies and really like a us equivalent but if we look at you know just well a stub well-established um companies with a long history of steady growth and not spectacular growth but steady growth and they pay a lot of dividends they produce a lot of cash maybe a business like a johnson and johnson or a 3m or even something like a coca-cola although these all operate in quite different industries they really have these similar economic characteristics where they produce a lot of cash flow they don't grow particularly fast but they're not really declining they're exposed in a lot of ways to general growth of america and as america continue to to grow these businesses continue to grow so if we look at um some really really basic metrics and these are often a bit crude but if we look at some basic metrics like say a p e ratio for example on something like johnson and johnson i think johnson johnson i'll put up the exact numbers on the screen here but i think they're trading north of 20 times earnings um coca-cola is certainly trading north of 20 times earnings at the moment and may even be closer to 30 or 40 i haven't actually looked at that one for a while um and similar sort of thing with 3m as well now if you compare that to this basket of japanese businesses that buffett has invested in these are businesses that are trading at more like five times earnings extremely cheap relative to their american counterparts and that makes these businesses much more attractive to a value investor like buffett who's looking to get a substantial cash return on his initial investment so some of these companies are producing as high as a 20 free cash flow yield um to put that in kind of context that's kind of like buying a rental property for a hundred thousand dollars um you pay all your expenses you get in the rent um you know you do all your maintenance and then you get twenty thousand dollars on that hundred thousand dollar investment it's a very substantial yield on that purchase price and uh as these businesses continue to grow that cash yield will continue to grow um for berkshire hathaway and these japanese companies as well so that doesn't mean that you're going to get 20 paid out to you every year that actually was the case with a business that buffett invested in in china a few years ago called petrochina where they actually said they were going to have about a 15 dividend yield on that particular stock and that investment worked out quite well um but nonetheless these companies produce a lot of cash and they have the potential to pay out a lot of dividend money um buy back stock do all those shareholder friendly things for their investors which now obviously include berkshire hathaway so overall i think this is a textbook buffett investment it's something that really has low downside because you're locking in a very well diversified business if they have one industry or one business sector that is going to struggle that's not going to pull down the whole business so you don't have this sort of um wipeout risks like you do and the airline business that that came to fruition uh earlier this year so you have well diversified businesses you're getting them at a very attractive price relative to their american counterparts um which make the investment returns moving forward look much more attractive so you've got this combination of low downside at the very least adequate returns and the chance for very high returns if these things were ever to re-rate in terms of their valuation up to something closer to what an american business doing the exact same thing would be likely to trade it now the other interesting thing that has been happening with this japanese investment which i haven't seen too many people talk about i came across this from a tweet actually uh last night if you don't follow me on twitter i'm at tom investing on twitter i have just recently joined up there anyhow i came across this tweet talking about berch hathaway's japanese investment and it said step one and then had a link to an sec filing then it said step two and had a link to another sec filing uh the second sec filing was all about the investments themselves but the first one was about this bond offering actually that berkshire hathaway made back in 2019 and this i found super interesting so um basically what berkshire hathaway did is they offered uh this is all denominated in yen so you're going to see some very large actual numbers up on the screen here but converted back to u.s dollars berkshire hathaway issued around 4 billion 4 billion us dollars roughly and japanese denominated and yin denominated bonds and the interest rates on these bonds are just stupidly low so in other words berkshire hathaway has borrowed money by offering these bonds which essentially is is just debt and they are paying next to no interest on it far less than the rate of inflation and um actually far less than the dividend yields they're likely to get off the japanese companies that they have probably put a large chunk of this four billion dollars to work with so what you've got if you put all of these kind of japanese investments together is you've got bookshathway essentially borrow borrowing money almost for free in in japan putting that money to work and really attractive japanese companies where they're gonna get probably around a five percent dividend yield for a lot of these businesses uh and they're also going to have the opportunity for further upside if the valuations ever do normalize uh to what they might be like in other parts of the world so buffett has often been quite outspoken about taking on excessive debt and you know the dangers of leverage but this is an example of where the interest rates that berkshire had would have to pay on these bonds is just so attractive so low for butcher hathaway um that it's a no-brainer to borrow this money really and uh interestingly uh this is unrelated to the japan investments but uh berkshire actually also issued some european bonds um denominated in euros uh at a zero percent interest rate and it just continues to amaze me that um people actually buy these things people actually buy a bond that will return zero percent to them um it's insane it doesn't make any sense other than if they think bonds one day are going to go negative and these zero percent bonds are going to suddenly you know look more attractive and be more highly priced um so bit of a crazy scenario but berch hathaway also issued some debt at a zero percent interest rate in euros um so they're taking advantage of these really anomaly type interest rates now next i just want to talk about the japanese stock market in general because it is something that has actually peaked my interest before and it's a really interesting case study on how stocks have gone from being really expensive to much more cheap and that's resulted in basically next to no returns in the japanese stock market for probably 30 years at this point it's an economy that has really struggled to grow even with very low basically zero interest rates for an extremely long period of time and they also have slightly different sort of company cultures and things in japan as well so pretty interesting case study if we go back to the 80s if we look from roughly sort of 1986 to 1990 1991 sort of time um the japanese stock market was in a bubble as well as the real estate market we saw the japanese imperial palace been valued at the same amount of all of the real estate and all of california combined which is just astronomical doesn't make any sense um and we saw that the stock market actually got to a schiller p e much higher than the us stock market has ever gotten to so if you don't know what a schiller pe is basically um it's sometimes referred to as a cape ratio or cyclically adjusted pe um basically it's telling us what's the p e ratio on these companies but instead of using the earnings from just last year we use a you know sort of roughly 10 year average of earnings you know try to adjust for fluctuations through economic cycles and essentially what we've seen in the us is that the highest the cape ratio or the sheller pe has ever been is roughly about 40 and that happened in the dot-com bubble of the 2000s if we look back through the history of japan um it got over a hundred so it actually got more than two and a half times more expensive more overvalued than the us did in the tech bubble which is just obscene and it's meant that returns from investors that bought stocks at that point have been very low valuations cannot stay that high rationally markets were certainly not efficient at that point in time but they've gotten more efficient in terms of um pricing things closer to their value for japan over a period of time um and it's created this very extreme length of time where stock market returns have basically been zero if not negative before dividends and it's sort of put japan and japanese people i think in this mindset of you know the stock market frankly is just a bad place to be and you're never going to make any money in the stock market and you've gone from a situation where stocks were just stupidly expensive i can't even describe how high the prices got there to a point where now stocks look very very cheap they are unusually underpriced they have a lot of cash on their balance sheets um japanese companies do have a bit of a different kind of corporate culture than a us company might which we'll get into a sec but um really we've gone from very very expensive companies back in the 80s to very cheap companies today with a lot of cash and it's potentially a really good hunting ground for um you know really keen value investors to look into and like i say i've heard monash probably talk about this as well he actually flipped through the japanese company handbook with guy spear at one point he went to warren buffett's office at one point and actually found the japanese company handbook sitting on warren buffett's desk and and sort of asked him you know why was he looking at these little japanese companies for a company you know as big as berkshire to invest in and at the time he thought you know maybe buffett is just looking for his personal portfolio or something like that um so it's really interesting to see that you know that was probably three or four years ago something like that to see buffett now actually go out and make investments and these japanese companies so they're very very cheap we've seen um buffett actually do something similar with some korean companies where um they just look statistically very cheap and he made over the course of one afternoon he went out and found about i think 15 korean companies to invest into his personal portfolio which have performed very very well now the one cautionary word i would have is that i know monash probably actually did make some investments in japan and they didn't work out quite as well as he might have hoped the prices really didn't re-rate or you know go to where he expected they might go and he believes that that's really for a couple of kind of cultural reasons more than anything so if you look at a country like the us and all the public companies over in the us they are very very shareholder oriented and they are extremely concerned with their stock price doing well over time and continuing to have their shareholders make good returns so you'll see a strong focus from companies that have paid dividends in the past for example to keep paying dividends and grow it every year if not every quarter so there's a lot of effort that goes into those companies continuing to do that you look at a lot of companies that will buy back shares a lot of companies that will i guess run much tighter leaner balance sheets than what you might see in japan where they have really as little cash that as they can get away with a lot of times so enough to i guess protect them from any short-term issues but really they they try to get rid of any excess capital to to run efficiently they don't want to have these lazy balance sheets as a lot of people might call it so you have this corporate culture where really um shareholder returns are very very high on the priority list of boards of directors and ceos and that's really not the case in japan so in japan the list of stakeholders is really the same so you still have shareholders you still have employees you still have you know all sorts of people related to the business but in japan i think you see people like employees for example much higher on the priority list often than shareholders and you also see that these japanese companies tend to keep a lot of cash around so you know most probably for example was able to find companies where you could buy them for less than the cash that was on their balance sheets but their cash in a lot of ways was fictional although it literally did exist in the company it's not like many activists would have a high chance of being able to go in there and get that cash paid out to them these companies like to keep a lot of cash around many of these businesses that trade on the tokyo stock exchange are a hundred years old or more um and they've done that by keeping a lot of cash around for a long period of time probably sacrificing some returns here and there um but keeping themselves extremely conservatively financed and just making sure they don't run into trouble frankly and none of these traits are by any means bad things it's just if you're looking for high returns from the stock market as a shareholder in these japanese companies you've got to be a little bit cautious in terms of you know expecting more than is perhaps realistic in terms of uh these companies leaning up balance sheets and if you're looking at a company that you know has 100 million dollars in cash and you can buy it for 50 million dollars and it has no debt um that may be a very very cheap stock particularly in america where you can have these activists go in and you know get the get the companies to actually dividend out this cash or use it for buybacks or anything like that you don't have that same sort of corporate culture in japan so that's just a bit of a learning i have had but overall really really interesting place to look at companies they are a lot cheaper in general than some of the us counterparts and it's very interesting to see buffett go over there and finally start making some big investments by committing the six billion dollars so um that is all for me today i do hope you enjoyed the video if you did please hit like and hit subscribe it does help the channel out a lot so i would very much appreciate that you can watch some older videos if you like over there hit subscribe over there if you haven't already and i will see you in the next one cheers
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