저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee은 대선 전 불확실성으로 단기 증시가 횡보할 수 있으나 3~6개월 뒤 상승 여지가 크다고 봄. 금리 인하는 장기적으로 주식에 우호적. S&P500 밸류에이션은 다소 높아 공격적 매수 확신은 낮음. 대선 후 랠리 가능성, 러셀2000은 다년 상승 초입으로 봄. 진행자는 자신의 옵션 트레이딩 계좌(83만 달러)를 공개하며 강의 판매를 홍보.
다듬은 글
so Tomley just did a fresh interview on CNBC it kind of has me worried and other people worried about what's going to happen with the stock market going into the election after the election it could look really good for the stock market but going into the election there's quite a few red flags that he's worried about so I'm going to play the interview of him right now and then after the interview I'm going to show you into my $832,000 trading account to show you how I'm oriented based on this information so here we go it does take us to our talk of the tape how much more can stocks rise let's ask Tom Lee he's fun strats head of research a CNBC contributor live with us once again at post night nice to see you great to see you Scott you know since the FED did their jumbo cut the market really hasn't done all that much except for one day last Thursday why uh well you know I think the FED Unleashed uh us on an easing cycle and that's going to be positive we know it's actually historically positive 3 months 6 months out but what stocks doing the next month is a bit of a coin flip and I think that's what we're seeing because there's some repositioning that took place and also we're now thinking about the 40 days into the election so does the fact that the election is but 40 days away sort of ruin the perfect scenario for stocks to get that post fed bump I I think it delays it um just because you know in in the conferences that I've been speaking speaking at and seeing wealth managers and family offices a lot don't want to commit Capital until after election day and it I totally agree with what Tom just said right there because Trump and Kamala they both have things that could be bad for the stock Market what if Trump starts a trade War what if Cala raises taxes like crazy both of those things have to be priced into the market right now but once the election is over one of those situations will be unpriced I don't think it matters who wins it's just they want to get that event behind them oh so you think we're going to have sort of a dash to the finish uh after election day is is out of the way yeah and that's pretty typical you know in fact uh in in election years the November December rallies are pretty tremendous and in fact when markets are up more than 10% in the first half you also get big rallies November December sort of choppy through September so this is a chart of the S&P 500 a lot of volatility recently Market went way down way up way down way up just a lot of bouncing around going into the election season so what Tom is saying is if you could hold on if you have the guts to buy the dips leading up to the election you could make a lot of money post election you think investors are sold on the idea that this economy is going to make it it's going to make it through the fed's going to pull this off is any of what we've witnessed since fed day doubts about the bigger picture uh so far so good this Friday we get core pce and hopefully that confirms inflation is no longer on the front burner but I'd say one thing I've noticed is that the number of investors and professional money managers that think we're already in a recession is very high and so I think the evidence just has to be better than expected and I think those views shift back to soft Landing well we've seen you know recently targets for the S&P Brian bsky I keep bringing him up because he's the most recent to raise his Target up to the highest now on the street I've asked you about you know the market lately you haven't sounded like you You' be raising your own Target to a degree like that would you uh you know I I think there is a lot of upside in the foreseeable future let's say 3 6 months out but for someone to tactically say we need to pin a 6,000 Target and then put money to work today I think it's harder to make that case because valuations um aren't on the cheaper end and we've already had a a fairly sizable move so I'm not saying I'm like bearish right now so I agree with Tom that the market is a little bit overvalued right now so just go on Google and type in ardini research it's going to come to this page right here scroll down go to S&P 500 click on S&P 500 right here let it load up and then we're going to go all the way to the bottom and there's going to be a chart that loads up of the S&P 500 PE ratio so this green line right here is the S&P 500 PE ratio so on a forward basis as of September 27th of 2024 it's 21.6 but just look it historically since 2004 the market appears to be a little bit overvalued right now but keep in mind the interest rates are going down and as interest rates go down that's like gravity on the stock market because just think about it nobody wants to get a 3% Bond or they could get 10% in the stock market so when the spread is so why between a bond and what you could do in the stock market historically speaking most people will put their money into the stock market and then the price earnings ratios will usually go up in the stock market as interest rates go lower because there's really no other game in town no one's really going to waste their time with bonds when it could get to 10% in the stock market uh I'm I'd have a lot more confidence saying 3 6 months out things are attractive especially things went like margin debt right it's it actually decreased in August meaning investors have been deleveraging it hasn't gone anywhere for the last 4 months at a time when markets are rising I guess I guess my point would be it would have been better articulated to just say you don't sound as bullish as you usually are is that fair uh you know yes I'm I'm bullish into your end but I'm I'm a little less confident about how we how markets behave into election day and not that I think we're going to have a huge draw down um if we do have a big draw down you know I'd be buying that dip but I I also don't think we can make new highs and then and then see the market blast off after election day so I'd rather sort of say things look a lot better after election day can we make new highs if if Tech doesn't resume its leadership role in anywhere close to the degree that it had um as long as Tech is a market perform if tech actually declines that's going to be hard for the rest of the S&P 500 to compensate but what we've seen so far including the days like Nvidia and Tesla recently is that that Tech is actually holding its own but other stocks are starting to show uh Catalyst and Signs of Life yeah what about the broading trade I mean look you look at the Russell your big call uh of course week to dat it's down more than 1 % really hasn't done much at all but I I kept hearing hey you got to wait till the FED Cuts then you go into the Russell I don't know what do you think well Russell had a big week last week uh it's some profit taking now but I I think that there's you know this is what bottoms look like um I don't think bottoms are straight up I know in 2021 energy was bottoming and it was also very choppy but eventually made not only new Highs but then basically had a blistering G in 2020 in the year following so I think that's a multi-year start for the Russell it feels choppy but we're still near alltime highs and there's there's a big fundamental case to own small capab all right so let's dive into my trading account right here so total value right now $832,000 my 2-year return I made over $566,000 this is true capital gains I have not sent any money to Charles Schwab in the last 2 years this account in total I started with roughly $100,000 and year 1 and year two that is when I sent this money and then last couple years I really haven't sent any money to this brokerage account number one because I don't want to get the value too high over $500,000 but look at it's way over 500k right now because the stocks and the trades that I'm doing are printing cash and the reason why is because sipc insurance is only up to 500k in your brokerage account Schwab has extended coverage that's basically like FDIC insurance for brokerage accounts but for brokerage accounts it's 500k if you want to learn exactly how I grew this portfolio so fast check the link in the description below I have a course that's coming out October of 2024 it's going to walk walk you through stocks stock options literally everything I know about the stock market is going to be in that course I'm going to show you exactly when I make a trade how to know if I should make a trade when to exit the trade how to see if things are undervalued versus overvalued all of that is in that course I make roughly $20,000 per month right now with stock options so if you want to learn about that stuff link below for that check it out all right so heading into that trading account this values a little bit under 800k because I have multiple accounts have a couple Roth accounts so this value right here is $766,000 but total value Schwab overall is 830k so total gain loss in this account I'm up 278,000 bucks and cost basis is not accurate just super quick on cost basis the reason why it's not accurate is because this only applies to trades that I currently have open so let's say I bought Apple stock 5 years ago and then I sold it 2 years ago and I made a bunch of money on it when I sell Apple stock it goes to my account in cash and then when I take that cash and go buy shares of triple Q for example that cash shows as the full cost basis which it should because that's actually the cost basis but the cost basis of the total account is not $489,000 it's roughly 100K like I said so coming down you'll see I have like 912 shares of triple q v I had 461 shares Tesla I still have my 500 shares we've been doing pretty good on those shares recently and then this is my gain loss for all the trades I have right here on the bottom I do have a couple trades that I am down money on I'm going to show you those ones I put myself on the right hand side so it's easier to see the stuff so I have some Tesla puts that I sold triple Q puts that I sold some apple puts iwm I have TLT that I've been talking about I have some Nvidia this one down here sqqq this is my biggest loser I'm down $116,000 on this trade but believe it or not I want to be down on this trade you might think I'm crazy but if I am down on this trade I'm going to be up probably on most of these trades right here so this right here is a hedge against the market TLT is pretty much a hedge against the market too check out my other videos because I go into way more detail with TLT and why I think this is a sleeper trade right here I do think this trade is going to make a lot of money but I think it's going to take a little bit of time that's why I did 321 of 2025 on the expiration date for those calls and then total unrealized gain loss in this account right here is $278,000 and remember these sqqq calls that I bought right here and these other trades right here that I'm down on it's a very very small percent of my portfolio they're all less than 1% of my portfolio so I try to maintain that ratio and then going up here on the right hand side for all the puts that I sold the ones that are minus those are puts that I sell this is the equity in the account that I have to have in order to support that trade so for example these Tesla puts that I sold right here it's a 170 stret but I'm only required to have $44,000 of equity in the account now the equity that I use is these shares right here I don't have actual cash in this account but if I were to get assigned shares of Tesla for 170 bucks a share I could bring cash to Schwab from other places in order to cover that assignment so it's no problem but keep in mind even if Tesla hits 170 a share I don't lose money cuz over here I receive $30 per share in premium so really my break even on Tesla is $140 per share and right now it's $260 per share so it would have to have almost a 50% drop for me to actually lose money on this trade you can see right here I received over $30,000 in premium when I sold a put on Tesla I'm up $20,000 on it and if I want to buy it back right now and close it out I'll buy it back for 10,000 bucks but my profit is $20,000 because I sold it for 30 buy it back for $10 I'm left over with $220,000 so trading stock options you can make a lot of money but you could lose a lot of money too that is why I made this course because so many of you guys are requesting it I'm going to show you exactly how I do my stock options all my logic behind it because honestly the stock market isn't hard it's not complicated but it's just hard to know what actually works and I have no problem educating myself so you should have no problem educating yourself because I've honestly spent thousands of dollars on courses I've been a seminars I've read hundreds of books and I know a lot of you guys are going to be like oh you're just another person on YouTube selling a course but here's the deal if I wouldn't have read any of those books if I wouldn't have went to any of those courses or went to any of those seminars I would have been nowhere right now educating yourself is the number one thing that you could do because if you don't understand what you're doing you're going to go try to do what I'm doing and you're probably going to get wiped out and the best part about the course is only course members are going to be allowed to get into my premium Discord and the premium Discord is where I show you all my trades in real time all my market updates every day after the market closes I go in there and I do an audio update I explain everything going on and what I see going forward there's also a section in there for course questions so as you're progressing through the modules in the course if you have any questions you shoot it in there I'll answer your question and it's done it's super simple so definitely check that out Link in the description for that there's also a free stock market blueprint if you want to get started with that and if you made it this far like subscribe and I'll see you guys later
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