저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee은 8월 변동성은 있으나 연말까지 상황이 양호하다고 봄. 고용·실업 우려는 허리케인 영향 일시적이며 리세션 위험은 감소로 판단. 연내 금리 4~5회(약 100bp) 인하 전망, 근원 인플레는 아직 1%대. 소형주는 PER 10배·실적개선 여건으로 리스크 대비 수익이 매력적이라 주장. 진행자는 금리 인하 수혜주로 소형주(IWM) 보유·옵션 베팅을 강조하며 자신의 포지션을 공개함.
다듬은 글
so Tom Lee literally just dropped a massive bombshell interview today on CNBC saying that most people will get super rich in this stock I'm going to play the full interview right now and then after the interview we're going to break down everything that he said we're going to see if we agree with it or not and I made a huge trade that I could potentially make $100,000 on so if you have a smaller trading account opportunities like this don't happen all the time I'm buying call options I'm selling put options I have some huge bets out there on this play so here's the interview and then we're going to break it all down here to break down the road ahead for stocks as we head into the sometimes tumultuous month of September AS fundstrat Global advisor co-founder head of research Tom Lee Joins us here at Post 9 on a summer Friday Tom thanks for coming in great to see you was it last week was it difficult to keep your bearings in the midst of that crazy PRI action uh without question because the market had been whipsawed by data point to data point as you guys were recapping you know the job support raised recession Fe Years big riskof then we got inflation this week which was pretty tame and I think markets suddenly went back to thinking about liquidity coming into markets I I think that the data dependence of the markets and the FED is very tough for investors and I think if you look ahead uh I'd say we always know the summer is tough summer probably runs through October but I I don't think that anything's changed into year end which is should look pretty good but but are you is that are you lower conviction now than you were two weeks ago uh no no change in our conviction but it is just recognizing August historically is a tough month for markets I mean one thing that maybe investors can get be encouraged by is since 1928 the most common month for the summer low is August and the most common week is the first week of August so I think maybe the worst is behind us but it doesn't mean we're straight up from here right and and I guess the question is I keep going back to you know that moment in mid July when we were at the highs you were just shy of 5700 on the S&P 500 and everything was a go it was you know the AI earnings path was kind of unquestioned in addition to uh you know General soft Landing expectations you kind of didn't have a lot of painful trade-offs to worry about in terms of policy or growth can we get back to something like that um I guess the the idea as you say maybe some or less through October uh do do you expect that we're going to have to continue to to reset around these levels uh yeah I think we're it's if my best guess would be it's still going to be a struggle but we're we're climbing the escalator again um you know I think Jackson Hall is going to set a positive tone on balance just because the evidence is growing fomc members want to be forward-looking as you guys are pointing out data dependence is dangerous at turning points and then we get the job support for August which I think should reverse some of things that could be temporary I mean that's a guess and if it is then re recession risk is sort of reduced but now we have real rates are too high and that means investors will be comfortable with cutting I'm thinking back to some of the notes you wrote after the last jobs number and you looked at Hurricane barrel and the number of companies in Texas that had no power for two weeks and you do think August will be uh reassuring on the NFP print yes I mean in some ways the weekly claims is telling the story we had a surge in claims all you know multi multi-month High that have come down since then and so even if someone says there was no effect from the hurricane how do you explain claims really improving so much especially in places like Texas and you know yeah I mean a million homes without power for two weeks how could that not affect the local economy and the jobs Market this rebound that we've gotten from the the lows of early last week initially certainly as till yesterday it was back to the first half winners it was a lot of the mega cap grow stocks and and you know the ecoe S&P really didn't have that much of a of a of a pullback and it's closer to its Highs but small caps definitely got a flush and yesterday they rallied big on that uh on that retail sales number but it seems like that's still been a complicated attempt at a rotation that's right you know uh they always say bottoms are tough and bottoms are a process and small caps are really in the process of a multi what we think is a multi- you know multi-year bottom and so conviction is not going to be as strong as things that have have been working I think most people's toolkit is to buy the the triple Q you know the NASDAQ or the AI names when they they want to get back in the markets but cutting rates at a time when small caps trade at 10 times forward PE better earnings growth and then a really a visible path to easing I I would say it still makes sense that the risk reward is in small caps what's your how many Cuts you think we get this year I I'm looking at consensus which is somewhere between four and five I before the end of the year yes so about 100 Bas points I think that's right but it it depends on where inflation prints the next couple months but you know our base case is that we're on a Glide path towards 2% that's better than consensus so I think four to five still makes sense and you've been part of your thesis has been that elements of CPI have been falling in your words like a rock I actually saw that phrase repeated in another desk note yesterday so that's that's spreading but are you as assured of that and when you look at things like car insurance or some of the the coincident cost of owning a vehicle as you point out yeah uh I think one of the things that surprises us still is that two things are keeping inflation high on a weighted basis shelter and auto insurance they don't need to raise rates so I think that's Cooling and that'll come in the second half and for housing rent is stabilizing and I think housing is going to cool it just needs to get to 3 to 4% and then markets will be comfortable that we're back at two but median inflation rates still 1% so Tomley kind of said a lot right there but here's the thing that you need to take away interest rates are going to go down he said they could go down over 1% by the end of this year so who does that benefit the most it doesn't benefit the large cap companies the most because they have a ton of cash on hand so they don't really need to borrow money at these higher rates this helps the small cap companies the small cap companies need to borrow a bunch of money just to stay afloat so now when rates go down they could borrow at cheaper rates they could expand their businesses and they're going to be a lot more profitable so I'm going to show you right now the trade that I went into where I think I'm going to make $100,000 on it I can lose money on it I can make money on it nothing is guaranteed but this is the bet that I make and I really like the bet so just a quick recap of my account I'm at 790,000 right now I make videos almost every day showing you guys how my account's doing I show you the green days I show you the red days July 31st of 24 I was at 83,000 2 weeks later I was at $659,000 I mean I took $140,000 hit but what the typical person will do is they'll panic and they'll sell so what I did was I doubled down I bought call options I sold put options I post all my live trades in my Discord the link is going to be in the description right here and also a video on how I trade stock options for beginners and advanced people it's all in the description right here too but I bought that dip I was down 140k so I went from $659,000 to now $790,000 so that is the power of having confidence in your trades and buying the dips so going into the trade where I actually put my money where my mouth is on these small caps it's right here so this right here is just a quick little snapshot of my main brokerage account it's up a total of $238,000 of unrealized gains I haven't realized yet I'm trying not to realize that because I don't want to pay the taxes on it so you can see that I have 970 shares of triple Q straight up I have 441 shares of e and 500 shares of Tesla I think Tesla is maybe one of the next 10x stocks I think there's a huge growth potential and I just made a sweet video on this I'm going to put that video in the description below and you can see here I sold some Tesla puts I sold a bunch of triple Q puts I sold some apple puts so down here on iwm so right now I'm down a little bit on these trades I'm down 5900 on this one and I'm down $2700 on this one I'm okay with that because when I did this trade I did it when the market was about halfway through that correction that we had a couple weeks ago so I pulled the trigger on this one a little bit too early but I'm okay with that because I sold the 250 put and I also bought the 220 call now the main thing that matters for this is I did an expiration date of 620 of 2025 so I almost have a year left in these trades right here for these trades to fizzle out and make money on those but I think that there's going to be a pretty good balance in iwm into the next couple months so these trades don't have to go straight up right now I think once the election passes I think that Trump is most likely going to win the election he's going to be all for deregulation cutting interest rates if Jerome pal doesn't cut rates or signal that he's going to cut rates as much as Trump wants I know they're supposed to be separated the Federal Reserve and politics but Trump will probably just put someone else in the Federal Reserve that he's confident they will cut rates because Trump wants a strong economy and that's good for the economy but even if Kamala wins I still think it's going to be okay for small caps I think the trajectory of rate Cuts is still going to be there and it's still going to happen so this is the trade that I made on iwm if you want to see my live market alerts live trade alerts Discord links below Because by the time I make this video If something breaking comes out it takes me like an hour to record this then 2 hours to edit it and then I upload it so you're probably like 3 hours behind Discord is where everything comes in real time earnings reports pretty much everything that you need to know that I'm looking at it's right there and then every single Sunday at 9:00 a.m.
Pacific time I go live in there because a lot of you guys ask a lot of like option setup questions or just investing things in general and it's a lot easier to go through all that not texting it all out in words but just talking to you guys about it and having conversations so if you made it this far in the video like subscribe I drop videos almost every day I'll see you guys in the next one
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