저자: LarryFink · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 인프라 투자 확대로 컴퓨팅 수요가 공급을 크게 웃돌며, 메모리 가격 상승이 지속되고 있다는 주장. 데이터센터 금융화·컴퓨팅 선물시장 등 새로운 금융 수요가 생기고 있으며, 전력망 투자가 부족한 점이 병목이다. 다만 메모리는 증설에 수년이 걸리고, 고마진은 결국 경쟁자를 불러 공급 증가로 마진이 축소될 가능성이 있다. 메모리 기업 주가는 이익 성장에도 낮은 멀티플에 머물러 있어 지속성에 대한 의구심이 존재한다. 수요는 AI 추론·엔터프라이즈 AI로 확산 중이며, 메모리 사이클이 완전히 구조적으로 바뀌었다고 보기는 어렵다는 중간적 결론.
다듬은 글
Financing data centers or financing the purchase of chips. As I said, I think we will have markets that will invest in computing power. We will have a futures market for computing power. This will be the next revolution in finance. And it will happen thanks to the strength of the United States capital markets.
Having the ability to finance these new technologies. So the United States and other countries around the world can become leaders in new technologies. You know, you mentioned 50 years. So I'm curious. Have you ever seen anything like this , Larry? We have the most profitable companies the world has ever seen that have decided to burn -- that's the wrong word -- decided to no longer have free cash flow, to no longer return capital to shareholders, because they have to participate in this mad race to stay ahead of the AI future .
When I hear myself say this, and you hear it, there are some disturbing aspects here, aren't there? I spoke to some leaders in this sector this week and last week. Their biggest concern right now is that demand is outstripping supply. And you see how this is reflected in the stock prices of memory manufacturers.
Okay, we have a demand for memory that exceeds supply. Of course, they managed to significantly increase prices. I don't know how stable it is. Maybe in 3-4 years we will have enough supply . But you know, as a big investor in data centers, we see that the demand for computing is not slowing down, it's growing even faster.
The problem in our country is that we are not investing fast enough. So I have the opposite opinion. We just...We need to do more. I mean, I... The capital expenditure of six companies is not enough. I think that...Well, not only there. We are not upgrading our energy grids fast enough. We do not have sufficient electricity supply.
And that's what creates certain ... This week, at the beginning of the week, there was a feeling of summer trading. And then I felt that towards the end of the week, everything became much more active. I know we're in the reporting period, but retail sales still set the tone , as did Treasury yields all week.
Yes, Jenny, summer slump is this week in mid-August. You know, if you look at the reasons why the stock market is down this week—the S&P 500 is down almost 2%, the Nasdaq is down as well—we're seeing some divergence in the markets. Are these fundamentals that have been very strong on the corporate side?
For the most part, they prevailed, but now geopolitical tensions are rising. This is the price of crude oil, which has risen by more than 5% since the beginning of this week. Second week in a row with growth of over 5%. Er , this is profitability. This is volatility in the bond market. Right now, the benchmark 10- year bond yield is relatively stable over the week, but you can't say that because of the volatility we've seen.
When it starts to rise a little, it always puts additional pressure on the stock market. That said , even with this week's losses, the S&P 500 is only a couple of percent below its record highs, which we saw just last Thursday. The Russell 2000, although down nearly 3% this week, is still not far from its record close last Friday.
So, I think there's a lot to think about here. Perhaps we are already overripe for a small correction. I do n't think that's a negative. I don't think this is a trend that is forming right now, but we definitely need certainty on some of the macro issues that are negatively impacting the markets. We are seeing a nice increase in Bitcoin today, up about 5.6%.
It grew by even more than 7%. In fact, Bitcoin has reached three- or four-month highs. So he's feeling pretty good this week. But if you look at other factors that negatively affect the markets— higher yields, more expensive oil, the dollar at a three-month low. This pushes gold and some other commodities higher.
So, yes, there is a lot to analyze here. It's nice to see futures recover a bit, but we'll wait and see how things play out, as any gains this week were quickly sold off by investors. Yes, of course, that's a valid observation. And, you know, just look at the pullback that we're seeing in a company like Broadcom, which fell, well, 7.4% this week, so it's not the worst option.
outsiders, but certainly a pretty significant movement. So the main story is really the funding package that's currently tied to AI semiconductors and, for example, Anthropic. So when you see AI deals getting so big and complex, is that now considered a risk compared to the necessary, obvious reward for a company like Broadcom?
Well, it seems like, you know, since the stock is up a little bit this morning, the market is taking it okay, right? These are AI chip financing deals that have been popping up over the last few months. This is not surprising. The supply is still weak at the moment. Demand is outpacing supply, but to help balance this demand- supply gap that we're seeing, they need to fun's exactly what Broadcom is doing.
According to Bloomberg, $60 billion in debt for this deal. The financing is still, you know, in the negotiation process at the moment. The potential $ 30 billion tranche of junior debt that is involved here. Blackstone and Apollo are in talks with Broadcom to participate in chip financing, and this comes on the heels of other financing deals we've seen in the industry.
And if you look at it this way, Anthropic is a big, serious company. Nvidia is gearing up for another big earnings report, but this time the big question may not be whether the company can beat its current supply and demand, with producers increasing capacity during boom periods. And eventually, the excess supply reduced margins again.
, more context, and faster access to that information. And this is where the problem with the proposal gets . Building new production facilities takes years, and installing equipment takes time. And producing advanced memory requires significant technical expertise. So, while memory companies are currently enjoying extremely high margins, additional supplies are not coming in fast enough to immediate analysts are predicting another year of significant AI-related capital investments by margin capitalism does what it does.
A margin of over 80% does not go unnoticed. Please ignore me. This makes it clear to . So the question is not whether competition will eventually emerge. She will definitely appear. The question is when additional supplies will actually the stocks of memory companies have becomoming to an end. Despite the huge growth in profits and the constant supply constraints.
This creates a strange situation. A company can grow profits at an extraordinary pace while its shares still trade at a relatively low multiple because investors don't believe those profits are sustainable. And this is the main discussion. Does memory manufacturing remain strong cycle, or has AI fundamentally changed the structure of long-term demand?
I believe the more accurate answer lies somewhere in the middle. Memory production is still fundamentally influenced may be s. . And the demand doesn't just come from modern AI-based , enterprise AI software solutions, AI infrastructure , more sophisticated reasoning models, and all of these applications require full...
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