저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프의 호르무즈 해협 관련 발언이 일주일 사이 뒤바뀌었다(개방은 미국이 아닌 타국 몫→이제 통행료 징수 구상). 시한 오후 8시 전후로 이란 발전소·다리 파괴 위협이 있으나 번복 전례로 실제 실행 가능성은 낮게 봄. 재건 참여 언급은 협상 여지로 해석. 구조작전(155대 항공기 동원)과 CIA 역할도 언급. 발언자는 시장 전체 방향을 3~4.9 수준의 약세 쪽 중립으로 보며 조정 시 저가 매수(buy the dip)를 실행했다고 밝힘. 1~3개월 개별 자산 가격 예측은 명시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
Well, Donald Trump is flip-floppy, flipping flopping again, and this time it's on the Strait of Hormuz. Just moments ago, Donald Trump completely U-turned on what he told us last week. Last week, at his address to the nation, he said, "We don't need the Strait of Hormuz. In fact, if anybody needs it, they should just go get it themselves.
Go get the oil themselves. They can control the strait." And today, he literally completely U-turns on it. He says, "First of all, that the Strait of Hormuz is a very high priority, major priority, but the Iranians are good BS artists. One terrorist with a mine on a boat could scare all the transiting ships worth billions of dollars." There's a reporter he lit- who literally asked Donald Trump about, "Hey, what about that the you know, law that the Iranian parliament passed authorizing Iran to charge tolls on ships that transit through the strait, and maybe they would split some of that responsibility with a strait with Oman." And Donald Trump is like, "Us charging tolls?" He's like, "No, no, no, them charging tolls." Donald Trump's like, "Oh." "Well, actually, we've been working on a concept where we're going to CHARGE TOLLS." WHAT?
THIS THIS IS PRETTY WILD. SO, SO, let's let's try to settle this down a little bit and just focus on the facts here for a moment. Donald Trump literally said, "We won. I'd rather charge the tolls. We are working on a concept where we charge tolls in the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is a big priority, and any deal we make has to include the quote free traffic of oil." This is completely the opposite of what Donald Trump said last week, where again, he invited other countries to just go and deal with the strait themselves, that the US didn't need it.
And then after the war is over, the strait will just naturally open up. Those were his words. And so now it's oh no, we're just going to blow them to oblivion unless that strait is open. So markets actually saw that interestingly as briefly optimistic. We saw a little bit of a heartbeat up in markets.
So they said, "Oh, so Donald Trump does care about the strait." Because the concern was that the United States would just leave Iran, Donald Trump would declare victory, and then leave the strait a quagmire, and then you have the same economic damage as if we're still there continuing until Iran gets what they want or, you know, they perceive some form of deal or whatever.
So to some extent, markets care most about the global economy, not about whether or not the United States is involved or not. They care more about are we going to get the strait open? And in doing so, you know, keeping the strait open, obviously, if the United States joins in the effort to open the strait, there's more confidence in that, and the hope is that things improve.
Now, is is a complete U-turn. We have flip-flopped on this many times now. We even, like a month ago, had a whole coupon code dedicated to flip-flop. Wild. Uh we also did get some other details. Uh and so I'm just going to break down some of the other details here. Uh first we hear that we already know that the deadline is 8:00 p.m.
tomorrow. Donald Trump says he is negotiating with somebody whom they have a lot of optimism in. They they think they can pull this off. One of the reasons they blew up one of the bridges in Tehran was as a way to say, "Hey, you guys starting to back uh you know, back up a little bit here on negotiations?" Blow up the bridge.
And Donald Trump says 10 minutes later the bridge was blown up and he's like, all right, you guys want to keep playing games? So, he's definitely playing hardball here. And we did expect last week that Donald Trump's address to America was really just an address to Iran, that it would be sort of a prepare for us to kick your butts.
And that's kind of what we got. Now, Donald Trump is literally saying there is a plan in place that at 8:00 p.m. Eastern time tomorrow, we have a 4-hour plan to completely obliterate every power plant and every bridge in Iran. And we would prefer not to do that, but we can do that. Now, over this like 90-minute long press conference, Donald Trump left like let a little bit of a hint out.
He suggested a couple things as a business person that I think are very interesting. And we'll get into some other details including the rescue operation. Donald Trump said, we might, quote, we might even get involved in helping them rebuild. Huh, interesting. See, because helping them rebuild is somewhat similar to Iran saying, we want reparations to help us rebuild the damage you caused.
Huh. That's actually interestingly bullish. Because even though that means our tax money is now going to go repair the very stuff we blew up, it might mean there's some common ground happening in negotiations where like, we're not going to pay you to rebuild. We'll go in there and rebuild it for you with our American companies, great American COMPANIES LIKE BLACK ROCK.
And then of course the Iranians are like, not Blackwater, right? Okay, sorry, that's a totally Iraq reference that doesn't belong here. But anyway, the point here is that actually sounds kind of like there's some connecting happening here. Like I don't actually think we're going to blow them to oblivion at 8:00 p.m.
tomorrow. I highly doubt that, especially with how many times, four times now, we've seen uh Donald Trump uh you know, pull the flip-flop, if you will, or at least pull extensions on these time frames. But, listen to some of the other context they gave. First of all, Donald Trump demanded that the media provide any information on leakers regarding the rescue operation that happened over the weekend.
The rescue operation did involve 155 aircraft, 64 fighters, 48 refueling tankers, 13 rescue aircraft. I have to say, I was a little surprised with a refueling to fighter uh you know, ratio there. Uh but, uh then again, I suppose uh you know, if you know, it could take some time to actually refuel each plane, and then takes time to coordinate, and you want them in different places.
So, I just never thought there'd be that much of an armada of just refueling planes, but yeah. So, I find that found that quite interesting. Donald Trump says that Iran can be taken out in one night. At the same time, the Iranian Supreme Leader issued a uh statement saying that assassinations and crimes will not disrupt the Iranian armed forces.
Then, we got uh talk from uh General Cane, Raisin Cane, as Donald Trump likes to say, that uh when the airman activated his emergency locator, his uh first uh comment to uh rescuers uh was uh or first message to rescuers was God is good. Uh Donald Trump gave a little bit of uh color on what it was like uh when they were looking for him.
I guess the CIA was involved in scanning uh the mountains, and and they thought they saw a head from 40 mi away that they were watching for about 45 minutes on camera. Trump says, "We weren't seeing something at first, then we thought we saw a guy. Uh it's a vast mountain area. There are bushes, there are trees.
I don't really have good pictures, but you can kind of look up this area. Uh here, I'll I'll type it out because there's no way in heck I'm going to be able to spell this out. But, it's actually way less desert-y than what I thought when I pictured this guy went down in Iran. Like here's the Wiki image for it and yeah, I mean you've actually got a green and mountainous terrain.
I mean it looks a little like Colorado like you kind of want to go hiking there, you know what I mean? And then they got some rolling planes too. They actually kind of looked interesting. Definitely not what I had imagined. And so the movie will have a whole lot more greenery in it than I thought. I thought it'd be a little more desert stormy, you know what I mean?
But anyway, then Donald Trump said then all of a sudden they're like "No, that's that's a human head. It's moving." Minute 45 minutes later the guy stands up and that's when they knew we got him. And he says CIA deserves credit for that. I thought that was kind of chilling honestly hearing that story on the rescue operation.
That was pretty remarkable. And so the rescue operation was you know Donald Trump says risky because it was essentially risking 100 American lives risking 100 American lives to save one or two. But Pete Hegseth Hegseth did indicate that we are ramping up our strikes on Iran today and tomorrow. That today will be the largest volume of strikes that we've had since the beginning of the war and tomorrow we will have even more.
On the aircraft that was shot down their call sign was Dude 44. Yes, d u d e 44. And the front seater's name or call sign was Dude 44 Alpha and the back seater was Dude 44 Bravo. In the rescue of 44 Alpha one helicopter and trailing aircraft took small arms fire. There's actually a video of that online.
And one of the A-10 Sandy call sign pilots ejected over friendly territory. Sandy I guess is a call sign that comes from the Vietnam days back when A-1 Skyraiders and 18 Corsairs. These were small little power shooter you know the little toy planes that you play with as a kid but the real ones. Anyway, Sandy is a call sign you get when apparently you put yourself between the enemy and your ally who's down that you're trying to save.
It's kind of like like this is such like a big motivator I feel like to American servicemen and women. Like this is like, "Oh, yeah. No man or woman left behind. No No one left behind, you know, forget the equipment. We'll blow that up. We don't mind losing the equipment, but we're not leaving an American behind." Kind of powerful.
I mean, it's it's going to make a chilling movie. But anyway, obviously good news, no one left behind, very impressive operation. Kind of interesting to hear Donald Trump's kind of detailing it because I think he says things he shouldn't, but I also think I mean, this has to be like a you know, a Reaper drone drone or something like that that's like 40 mi away zooming in with some kind of telephoto lenses or whatever trying to figure out, okay, like what are we targeting here?
What are we looking at? Oh, wait, that's one of our men maybe maybe let's see. And to get the resolution from 40 mi away that you could actually positively identify that that is an American and not an Iranian is absolutely insane. That's some crazy technology. And I also get it cuz like when you think of drone like you don't really want to fly the drone right over your target cuz you kind of signal like, you know, "Hey, maybe we should go over there." Right?
So, just crazy. Donald Trump also confirms that it was indeed a MANPAD shoulder-mounted heat-seeking missile that did take down one of our aircraft. Donald Trump says that at the beginning of this conflict Iran was much more powerful than at any point in the last 47 years. Then of course he bags on all the prior presidents, says that Iran Iran's leadership now is a lot smarter and more sophisticated and it's a totally different regime even though regime change wasn't our goal, but we will blow up their bridges and power plants which are very expensive to rebuild and we wouldn't want to rebuild those if we don't have to at 8:00 p.m.
tomorrow. Now, my overall takeaway from all this was just because of the little hints I heard, I I actually thought, you know, somewhat positive. Even though we keep hearing from the Iranians, no deal, no deal, no ceasefire, no ceasefire, this idea of we might take their oil, the strait is a major priority, and maybe we'll help them rebuild.
I don't know. Maybe I'm looking at it a little too optimistically, but those are just the things we heard. So, obviously, you do you. I'm still sticking midpoint on the bear-bull scale. I'm like a 4.9, okay? I'm going to be posting a video on the jobs report later today that'll incorporate some of the ISM labor numbers from this morning.
And so, you know, some of those things keep me relatively concerned about, you know, the longer-term trajectory of the economy. That said, we did buy the dip because I still think there are some opportunities to buy out there. And and set up for whatever it is we go through, I call it recession or not.
But we did buy the dip. And so, we'll keep you updated. Thanks so much for watching. Subscribe for more. See you. &.
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