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마이크론은 AI 시대 핵심 메모리(HBM) 공급사로, 클라우드 메모리 매출이 전년 대비 3배 이상 증가하고 마진도 확대되었다고 주장. 시장 점유율은 HBM 21%로 빠르게 상승 중이며, 2025 회계연도 매출 37.4조가 아닌 374억 달러(+49%), EPS 2.83달러(+258%) 제시. 주요 리스크로 SK하이닉스 경쟁, 삼성 생산 재개에 따른 공급 과잉 가능성, HBM4 양산 차질, 대중 규제 등을 언급. 밸류에이션은 선행 PER 약 10배로 저평가라고 평가하며 적극적 분할매수 계획을 밝힘.
다듬은 글
What if I told you there was another AI tech giant hiding in plain sight? A company that builds one of the most critical components for the entire AI era. And what if it was growing faster and priced cheaper than almost every other chip company today? Buying that stock would be a grea waste your time.
This video is all about Micron Technology, and here's everything I'm going to talk about. what Micron does and how they make their money. Why Micron is critical to , future growth and biggest risks, and of course, what all this means for Micron stock as a result. Let's start with what makes Micron so important when it comes to AI.
Micron Technology is one of the world's leading manufacturers of memory chips, mainly DRAM, flash memory, and high bandwidth memory or HBM. The big thing investors need to understand is that memory is no longer a commodity. It's one of the biggest bottlenecks in AI training and machine learning workloads.
That's because as AI models get bigger, take more data to train, and use more tokens for inference, they need much more memory, and they need to be able to access that memory much faster to work in near real time. Every AI application now needs massive amounts of memory to store, move, and process huge data sets in milliseconds.
From OpenAI's latest models to physical robots and self-driving cars, that's where high bandwidth memory comes in. HBM can move huge amounts of data at very high speeds by stacking memory chips and connecting them to a shared hub. This kind of design is much faster and much more power efficient than other types of memory because it lowers the physical distance that data needs to travel.
That's why it's in such high demand in data centers. HBM is Micron's single fastest growing product category and they have much more demand than supply with most of their HBM 3e and HBM4 chips being sold out through 2026. As a result, revenues from their cloud memory business unit more than tripled year-over-year, while their gross margins and their operating margins grew to 59% and 48% respectively.
both of which are over 10 percentage points higher than they were a year ago and much higher than the industry average for memory chips. I'll get back to this massive growth when we walk through Micron's earnings. But first, let me get specific about who's actually buying these chips. Micron's HBM3 memory goes into Nvidia's Hopper H200s and their current Blackwell B200 GPUs, but they also go into AMD's Instinct MI325s, the MI350s, and the MI355 accelerators, as well as Google's 7th generation Ironwood TPUs and Microsoft's Azure AI infrastructure.
On top of that, Micron is shipping their HBM4 memory for next generation AI accelerators like Nvidia's Rubin GPUs and AMD's Altier Mi400s, both of which come out in 2026. Micron currently has a 21% share of the global high bandwidth memory market, making them one of just three companies dominating data center memory for AI today.
Micron is also the only US company of the three, which means they could face fewer supply chain issues and tariffs from the Trump administration than Samsung or SKH, both of which are based in South Korea. It's also worth noting that 21% is a massive share of any global market. Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud are two of the most successful cloud infrastructure businesses on Earth, and their market shares are both smaller than Micron's share for high bandwidth memory.
Not to mention that the market for AI memory chips is expected to 9x in size over the next nine years, which would be a compound annual growth rate of over 27% through 2034. That means that Micron could grow roughly twice as fast as the S&P 500, even if their market share and margins stay the same. But I think Micron's market share will actually increase over time, especially as hyperscalers, supercomputers, and enterprise data centers keep diversifying their supply chains to avoid new tariffs.
In fact, Micron's 21% share of the HBM market is up from just 4% this time last year. That's a 5x increase in market share in just four quarters. Besides advanced memory, targeting AI applications, Micron also designs and manufactures memory and data storage products for a wide variety of other industries.
For example, they're a major supplier of DRAM and flash memory for edge devices ranging from laptops and desktops to smartphones and tablets, factory robots and self-driving cars, smart cameras and sensors, and even medical equipment. So, while most investors focus on the chips that are making headlines, like Nvidia's GPUs, Micron has a huge portfolio of products that most Wall Street analysts are completely missing.
But the headlines you don't see can move the markets, too. And that's where Ground News comes in. Ground News analyzes over 60,000 articles a day and rates each news source for political bias and factuality. For example, check out this story about the US government acquiring a 10% stake in Intel with about equal coverage from the left versus the right.
Most of these sources have a high factuality rating. But there's also some serious bias. Headlines from the left say that Trump is taking control of corporate America. And they're calling this investment in Intel socialism, while headlines on the right focus on the revenues it'll generate and what it means for industrial policy going forward.
and their blind spot feed shows me which stories are being ignored by one side or the other because knowing what isn't being talked about is just as important as what is. These features help me keep my facts straight and save me a ton of time. And right now, Ground News is giving my audience 40% off their Vantage plan.
That's their biggest discount yet. So go to ground.news/tsy or click my link in the description to get unlimited access to every Ground News feature for just $5 a month. That's a no-brainer for any serious investor. All right, so Micron's memory can be found in Nvidia's and AMD's state-of-the-art AI accelerators, Google's and Microsoft's data centers, and high-end laptops and desktops, flagship phones, and self-driving cars.
That means Micron will keep winning regardless of which GPU maker, hyperscaler, or consumer electronics companies come out on top, making it now that we understand the markets that Micron operates in and the products that they actually make, we have all the context we need to dive into their earnings.
Micron reported record revenues of 11.3 billion for the quarter, which is up by 22% quarter-over-arter and 46% year-over-year. Micron's fiscal year starts in September and ends in late August. So, their FY25 revenue came in at 37.4 billion, which is up by 49% year-over-year. On top of that, their earnings per share came in at $2.83 for the quarter versus just 79 this time last year.
That's a whopping 258% increase in earnings per share. That's some serious growth. Micron breaks down their revenues by technology and by business unit. Let's look at technology first. DRAM is Micron's bestselling technology by far with revenues coming in at $9 billion for the quarter and $28.6 billion for the fiscal year.
That means that DRAM represents over 75% of Micron's total revenues. Micron doesn't separately break out the numbers for high bandwidth memory yet, but that's what's fueling all the growth for this side of their business. Beyond HBM, their DRAM business also includes the DDR4 and DDR5 memory chips for laptops, desktops, and data centers, as well as the mobile memory chips for smartphones and tablets that we just discussed.
Micron also sells solidstate drives as well as memory chips for robots, self-driving cars, and smart devices, all of which fall under NAND flash storage and memory. Revenues from NAND memory came in at $2.3 billion for the quarter and $8.5 billion for their fiscal year, which is up by a respectable 5% sequentially and 18% year-over-year.
Micron has four major business units: cloud memory, core data, mobile and client, and auto and embedded. We've already gone over all the major products that fall under each business unit. So instead, almost every Wall Street analyst covering this stock. Most investors think of Micron as a commodity memory supplier stuck in a boom or bust cycle.
They have high profits when demand exceeds supply, but otherwise they have almost no pricing power and no real moat. But high bandwidth memory is not interchangeable like normal RAM is. It's customized and tightly integrated into the final chip. That means Micron's profits are protected by their long-term partnerships with Nvidia for their Hopper, Blackwell, and Rubin GPUs, AMD for multiple generations of their Instinct accelerators, and Google and Microsoft with their AI infrastructures.
That means the limited supply for high bandwidth memory gives Micron a lot of upside as AI keeps expanding. But it also protects their downside if traditional memory markets start to slow down. That's why the business unit that every investor needs to pay attention to is their cloud memory business unit since that's Micron's revenue driver for the entire AI revolution.
Their cloud memory business unit revenue grew from $1.45 billion four quarters ago to $4.5 billion this past quarter. That's a 214% increase year-over-year. And now cloud memory is their biggest business unit by far. Let me say that again. Micron's cloud memory revenue more than tripled year-over-year and their margins expanded by double digits.
This is why we look for companies with perfect products for quickly growing markets. This is why I think that Micron is an AI tech giant hiding in plain sight. now that we understand Micron's markets, their memory products, and their finances, let's talk about their biggest risks and their $175 billion valuation.
Micron's biggest risks first. Micron has some serious competition in the high bandwidth memory market since SKH Highix has a dominant 62% market share today. And I should also point out that Samsung, Micron's other major competitor, recently had delays in getting their newest HBM chips qualified to go into major AI products.
Those delays are how SKH Highix and Micron ended up grabbing more market share and profits as their customers scrambled to buy all the HBM that they could get their hands on. But now, Samsung is ramping production back up, which means there could end up being more HBM supply than demand, at least in the short term.
If that happens, all three companies will have to lower prices to move their inventory, which would translate to lower profits until the over supply ends. Unlike Nvidia or AMD, Micron actually manufactures most of their own chips. So, another risk is that Micron could have trouble scaling their HBM4 production in 2026, just like Samsung did earlier this year.
There's a lot of complexity that comes with vertically stacking over a dozen ultra thin memory dieseS and then connecting them together in a way that doesn't fail when they heat up at full power in actual data centers. If Micron does have any manufacturing delays or they have yield issues, SKH Highix and Samsung will have a chance to fill that demand instead.
That's also exactly what happened with Intel, but with CPUs instead of memory. And of course, we still have all the ongoing geopolitics with China, including the Trump administration's trade restrictions and export controls, which could limit Micron's access to Chinese markets, or their ability to import new manufacturing equipment or slow down other parts of their supply chain.
In my opinion, the competition and manufacturing risks aren't unique to Micron. They also apply to Samsung and SKHEX, and the geopolitical risks are actually smaller for Micron since they're a US company. Still, I wanted to make sure I called them out for you. And now that we know the risks, there's really only one question left to ask.
Is Micron stock actually a good investment? And to answer that, we need to look at Micron's valuation next. In my opinion, the numbers speak for themselves. Micron's revenue grew by 46% year-over-year, while their gross margins and their operating margins increased by double digits. And as we already saw, their earnings per share skyrocketed by over 250% over the same time frame.
As a result of all that growth and good risk management, Micron's fair price to earnings ratio is around 34, while their current PE ratio is closer to 21. This is just a fancy way of saying that Micron stock should be trading at higher multiples because of how fast they're growing. That fast growth also means that Micron is trading at a forward price to earnings ratio of just 10, which is much lower than other chip companies like AMD, Texas Instruments, and Qualcomm.
So, my plan is to dollarc cost average into Micron stock even more aggressively after this earnings call. And if they can keep up this level of execution, Micron might even end up 6. .
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