저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
ARK 인베스트먼트의 CEO 캐시 우드는 비트코인이 선호되는 가치 저장 수단으로 자리 잡으며 금 시장을 잠식하고 있다고 주장하며, 약 5년 안에 비트코인 가격이 100만 달러에 이를 것으로 전망합니다. 그녀는 AI가 생산성 붐을 일으키고 디플레이션 압력을 가져올 것으로 보고 있습니다. 장기 미국 국채 금리는 사이클 저점 부근에 있으며 3% 수준으로 되돌아갈 가능성이 크다고 봅니다. 또한 S&P 500 대비 금 가격 비율(S&P/금 비율)이 반등할 수 있다고 전망합니다. 미국 주택 가격과 매물 증가로 인한 압력이 가격 인하로 이어지고, 소비자물가지수(CPI)가 예상보다 낮게 나오는 서프라이즈로 연결될 것이라고 봅니다. 아울러 달러는 상승 추세에 있으며, 세계 대비 미국의 투자수익률(ROI)이 높아지고 있다고 평가합니다.
다듬은 글
with a completely restructured technology, a staff uh mostly because there has been so much foot dragging and uh they then engage and the productivity gains that Palunteer is helping enterprises uh uh evolve and enjoy are astounding. Astounding. Uh so just listen to one of their quarterly calls to to give you a sense of how astam astounding they are.
Uh and so we think the productivity cycle is going to be very powerful. Hey guys, welcome to Everyday Finance. With the biggest growth period in its history and a surge in demand from institutional investors, Bitcoin's march toward the $1 million mark has never appeared more inevitable. According to Kathy Wood, the CEO of ArchInvest, that is the most recent forecast.
Bitcoin is quickly becoming the preferred store of value according to her observations, and is cutting into the $15 trillion gold market while attracting new capital from emerging economies and even sovereign wealth funds. According to data conducted by ARK, there is widespread acceptance across corporate balance sheets, large financial actors, and ultra high netw worth investors.
There has never been a better argument in favor of Bitcoin reaching seven figures. Given that supply is constrained at 21 million and demand is increasing on a daily basis, Wood will be providing an explanation as to why the road to 1 million is getting faster and why the global financial system could undergo a transformation within the next 5 years.
Stay tuned. The bears are saying we're going back into the 70s uh uh and just a a bust on this basis, meaning S&P pricing uh going down, collapsing relative to gold. Uh and you can see there's a tugofwar taking place here. So stay tuned. Um on this basis, it looks much more hopeful and especially because um OPEC is saying that it wants to increase supply even more.
So this is the S&P price relative to oil uh liquid gold. Uh and so it is a leading indicator. We think it is uh and uh points we think to S&P relative to gold uh moving back up. Here's the long-term Treasury yield uh over uh 45 years and you can see it broke out. It's now levitating. um we would not be surprised in in the next I'd say half year to see it go back to that 3% range.
That base uh that you see in the 2010 to 20 uh uh 20 range is probably now going to be the low uh for for this cycle. And we don't want these rates to go back to zero. uh because that was a very unhealthy environment. Uh we think the market's working much better now and uh according to this metric which is high yield spreads uh the market uh the the market is seeing very little risk out there.
Uh we think there are excesses in the bond market. Uh and we're certainly seeing I think this week record highs in uh commercial office uh uh delinquencies. I think 11.7% was the number higher than in 0809 by roughly a percentage point. And yet you know no problem according to this much broaderbased measure.
uh we think we think that the search for yield out there is where the excesses are and there's too much risk being taken in the bond market by investors and uh this last chart bitcoin to gold so has not broken its uptrend um but has had a setback in here as Bitcoin has settled down and gold has continued to go up.
Our bet is that Bitcoin uh will continue this uptrend over time. Uh but we are paying attention trying to understand uh what is gold telegraphing uh relative to Bitcoin. So with that I think I've peppered in a a lot of innovation. I'll end with this. Brett Winton, our chief futurist, featured a chart today uh during our brainstorm which uh uh compared what's going on now with um ChatGpt and uh other LLMs, chat bots uh uh in the consumer space relative to uptake in uh the internet days on on PCs.
Uh and uh what we're seeing it suggests that we are today where we were um with uh the internet in 1995. And 1995 through 1999 was the biggest burst in uh in the in the growth sector of the market in history. It went in, it went too far. Too much capital, chasing too few opportunities too soon. Uh, and so it ended badly.
Uh, but we're just at the beginning of this and, uh, we're pretty excited about it and, uh, uh, we think that it that this is much more on the consumer side in the enterprise. So, you've heard about the MIT study that the Wall Street Journal featured saying no productivity gains from AI. Very hard to see.
And uh I was on a panel with two people who uh are very senior one heading up uh US commercial uh and uh we asked this question and uh she said well it is true what happens with Palunteer is they'll go in because the CEO has asked them to come in and they bring the CTO CEO all the seniors into the conversation CTO takes it back and says okay well we need to do a McKenzie study around this.
So they pull the pilot from Palunteer and then one to two years later when there are no productivity gains. uh they come back to Palunteer with a completely restructured technology, a staff uh mostly because there has been so much foot dragging and uh they then engage and the productivity gains that Palunteer is helping enterprises uh uh evolve and enjoy are astounding.
Astounding. Uh so just listen to one of their quarterly calls to to give you a sense of how astound astounding they are. Uh and so we think the productivity cycle is going to be very powerful. ArchInvest initiated its analysis of Bitcoin in 2014 and published its first white paper in 2015. At that time it was expected that Bitcoin would serve as the link that would provide global access to digital currency.
Tether took on that role instead, demonstrating its revolutionary potential during crisis as families in underdeveloped nations circumvented. Black market transactions to access dollars online. A ray's $ 1.5 million Bitcoin view is only somewhat tempered by this transition, which reduces the importance of emerging markets, but does not alter the fundamental factors.
Bitcoins function as the institutional on-ramp to digital assets and it's growing dominance as gold's replacement. RK's methodology is also applicable to Ethereum and Salana and it is backed by institutional teaching in the areas of onchain analytics and comprehensive risk return models despite the fact that the supply is capped and that usage is increasing across all sectors.
Kathy Wood maintains that Bitcoin's path to surpassing $1 million in the next five years is firmly on track. Uh here is the year-over-year change in prices. So you can see existing home prices. You see what happened during COVID up to 25% on a year-over-year basis. They're down into low single digits now.
probably will decline, especially if if we're right that new home prices actually start falling a little faster than they have been during the past three years on a year-over-year basis. Um, to keep us honest, I feature the dollar because there are so many headlines about it. And um, you can see it has had a correction.
It has not broken its uptrend since for the last 15 years. Uh it's probably in a new range. Uh uh but we think if we're right about this supercharged or turbocharged expansion uh with innovation at the at the leading edge. uh we think that the return on investment associated with that innovation and with these new tax laws and with the deregulation is going to uh go up.
The return on investment in the US is going to go up relative to that in the rest of the world. Um here you can see the the trade weighted dollar from a different angle. the previous one. This one was based on six major uh trading partners. This is 26 trading partners and on that basis again the the uptrend has not been broken.
We are in a little bit of a range. Um just showing you corporate profits uh how healthy they are and this is the best measure of profits. methods uh adjusted for IVA and CCA and that that means it's adjusted for distortions associated with both inflation and deflation. Uh so these are real profits and uh they look very healthy.
Uh now we know that a lot of companies have not been investing enough for this new age and it could be that margins come under pressure for that reason. uh here is the same uh for the S&P 500. It has been obviously um helping the stock market. We think quality of earnings is going to become very important moving forward.
Uh and those harnessing new technologies uh and and driving growth that way are going to uh we think are going to um benefit moduly. Here's another inflation chart now into market indicators. uh going nowhere as measured by commodity prices uh for the last 40 45 years. Um the price re the peak was in ' 07 and it was because of uh a lot of errant uh monetary and fiscal policy leaving 95 I mean the late 90s.
Uh so the Fed eased and eased and eased for all kinds of reasons caused that massive inflation. If anything, I think this is going to break down um uh before it breaks out. Uh here is that metals to gold index. I will say it's curious. Gold breaking out to all-time highs relative to metals. Uh what is that telling us?
Um, I still keep in the back of my mind, is there something uh is there a deflationary bust out there that's causing this and fears associated with it? Maybe in China. Uh, I don't know. Uh, I know that the property cycle has not gotten better there. Uh, and we also know that investment spending is still up to 40% of GDP in China.
We're only at 18% in the United States. So, there are still excesses. They're funding uh a lot of things including nuclear and we think that's good and uh all kinds of power that's good for their competitive advantage. Uh but to get to 40% uh I have a feeling there's a lot of wasted spending going on and that is a recipe for deflation longer term.
uh copper the commodity with the PhD uh it came down because of tariffs uh but the uptrend is in place it's just that gold is going up so much faster um here again paying a lot of attention to this uh AI power is uh really uh starting to power so to speak uh this number but so are those new tax rules because they were made retroactive ive to January 1, which was really important.
Phasing in tax cuts uh or or depreciation schedules would have uh deferred capital uh spending. Uh now it's being accelerated and I think it was held back a little bit about uncertainty around uncertainty with the tax package. Um here's the uh trade deficit. You can see uh the tariffs uh pre- buying got us into a massive deficit.
We're curing that now. Now, if we are right on what is going to happen, then the trade deficit may not go down as much as President Trump would expect or like uh because we do think real GDP growth will be stronger than expected and uh we can't produce everything uh in in the United States. So we think imports uh will stay stronger uh surprisingly strong uh in the years ahead.
Uh now here is we we we spend a little time on housing just because it's wow what a story. U here you see pending home sales deteriorating again below 0809. Um that's uh really uh a an affordability problem and uh you know whole generation is being deprived of their home first homes and of course President Trump is going to make this fixing this um his next year's or this this next year's priority as we move into those midterm elections.
Um here you can see both new and existing home sales very low by historical standards. You can see new one family homes for sale. Look at that inventory increase. It is almost as as uh high as it was pre809 pre that crisis. How are they going to clear this um inventory of homes? It's expensive to carry these homes.
Well, they're probably going to have to cut prices. They've already been buy so-called buying down uh loans, which means they subsidize the mortgage rate. Uh that's not working. uh I think actual price cuts uh which will get into the CPI and be one reason that uh the CPI is going to surprise significantly on the low side of expectations.
As automation and artificial intelligence continue to take the place of entry-level positions, the number of recent graduates who are unemployed is increasing. This development highlights the fact that technological disruption is no longer a concern for the future of labor markets. It is a reality that is already affecting them.
If home prices are forced to decrease at the same time as interest rates remain high, the second half of the year could yield an unexpected reduction in inflation numbers. The cost of artificial intelligence, robotics, energy storage, blockchain, and life sciences has decreased at an unprecedented rate.
Kathy Wood believes that these pressures are linked to these innovations. She argues that they will boost productivity to a significant degree, unleash longlasting deflationary forces and pave the way for a much stronger recovery than conventional economic models would suggest. If her perspective proves to be correct, the years to come might reshape the link between growth, inflation, and technology.
With Bitcoin emerging as a cornerstone of the financial system as it evolves and as a primary benefactor of institutional
Comments 0