저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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캐시 우드는 비트코인이 50만 달러까지 갈 수 있다고 주장한다. 핵심 근거는 연준의 과도한 달러 발행과 법정화폐 가치 하락이며, 희소성 있는 '상품 화폐'로서 비트코인이 금보다 효율적이라는 논리다. 비트코인 공급은 2,100만 개로 제한되어 있고 이미 약 1,850만 개가 채굴되어 있다고 언급한다. 중앙은행 디지털화폐(CBDC) 확대가 대중의 암호화폐 교육을 촉진해 비트코인 인지도를 높일 것이라고 본다. 페이팔의 암호화폐 거래 서비스, JP모건의 블록체인 긍정 발언, 레이 달리오의 입장 변화를 기관 참여 신호로 제시한다. 기관이 비트코인을 포트폴리오의 중간 수준 한 자릿수 비중(약 5~9%)으로 편입하면 가격이 40만~50만 달러 범위까지 갈 수 있다는 시나리오를 든다. 거래량은 대형 주식 1~2개 수준으로 아직 작으며, 부동산·신흥시장 편입 초기 사례와 유사하다고 비유한다. 2017년 고점 약 2만 달러 부근에 접근 중이며 장기적으로 아직 상승 여력이 크다고 평가한다. 정부의 규제나 폐쇄 가능성도 언급되지만 이를 본질적 위험으로 깊이 다루지는 않는다. 발언은 대부분 장기 전망이며, 비트코인 가격 목표는 50만 달러다.
다듬은 글
kathy wood the ceo and cio of arc invest has been known for making outrageous price targets and then having those price targets actually turn out to be true most famously she predicted that tesla would reach four thousand dollars a share before the split in five years when tesla was in the low two hundreds we made a lot of waves by attaching a four thousand dollar price target to the shares at one point kathy's next bold prediction is as you likely saw by the title bitcoin to 500 thousand dollars similar to tesla this seems like a totally outrageous price target yet kathy's moon shots always have lots of substance behind it and that's why she's right so often in this video i'm gonna go over why kathy would believe that bitcoin will hit 500 thousand dollars before we begin please take a moment and subscribe to my second channel cassandra's capital if you haven't already i'll be posting a lot more investing related content over there if you enjoy my videos here you'll also enjoy my content over there welcome to cast games academy if you're new to the channel please consider subscribing for more content like this and let's get right into it the unprecedented rates that the federal reserve is creating dollars at have led to many investors purchasing commodities like gold and silver in an attempt to hedge against inflation however in this day and age investors are looking for alternatives to gold this is where bitcoin comes into play which is essentially the digital standard to money and more specifically fiat currency fiat money which consists of government-backed currencies that are not based on commodities like gold and silver are highly susceptible to inflation the us dollar is often seen as a standard for fiat money all fiat money diminishes in value ever since the federal reserve was created in 1913 the us dollar has done nothing but go down on the other hand commodity money like golden bitcoin is not susceptible to these diminishing returns gold is a limited resource as once all gold is mined there won't be any more gold to look for that is unless if people start mining asteroids bitcoin serves as a digital version of gold as there are only 21 million bitcoin units and 18.5 million are already in existence yet bitcoin is much more than gold in terms of efficiency bitcoin's transportation and storage are unrivaled by traditional commodities with bitcoin you don't have to store it in a safe because you're afraid of it being stolen with bitcoin you don't have to carry the heavy weight of gold around just to purchase materials this is why kathy believes in the long-term vision of bitcoin bitcoin is the reserve currency of the crypto asset ecosystem uh it's the equivalent to the dollar in the fiat currency system that's a pretty exalted role bitcoin gets a horrible reputation from the media most of the time we hear bitcoin mentioned in scams on twitter youtube and facebook this isn't to say that bitcoins are not used in scams if you scroll down to the comment section i'm sure you'll see a computer bot spamming their whatsapp in the comments in an attempt to steal some bitcoin from you the reputation of bitcoin as a tool used by scammers is a misconception in fact bitcoin does the exact opposite of hiding money by looking at someone's bitcoin address you can literally see where they sent bitcoin to and where they received bitcoin from most scammers do not get away with stealing bitcoin in fact the hacker who hacked into famous twitter accounts like elon musk bill gates and joe biden was caught stealing 120 000 and was promptly arrested the media does not portray digital currency correctly but kathy would seize major potential in a separate education related to cbdc's knowing that bitcoin is out of their control countries have been exploring the creation of their own cryptocurrency cbdcs also known as central bank distributed currencies are cryptocurrencies that are regulated by a country the recent and eventually long-term rise in cbdc's will allow citizens to become more educated on what cryptocurrencies are like kathy wood believes that the rise of cbdc's will enable people to learn more about cryptocurrencies and more specifically bitcoin uh i also think that the the cbdc's which are the central bank distributed currencies that are digital currencies that we're beginning uh to hear a lot about around the world including china have um have uh have led to a sort of an education about what bitcoin is bitcoin will not be controlled by any government and uh and in fact with cbdc's you're going to you're going to have a lot more surveillance over your purchasing behavior what you do when uh so i have a feeling it may have a a awakened uh a a bit of a giant here because uh central banks and and policymakers will not be able to uh do any surveillance uh uh on people per se it's a pseudo anonymous it's transparent sure but uh only by address not by a person whereas uh some of the cbdc's uh especially in china will they'll they'll enable um the tracking of purchases and the tracking of activity uh at all times over the past few months large institutions are beginning to rethink their skepticism on bitcoin most notably paypal was decided to launch a new service that allows users to buy hold and sell cryptocurrency additionally the ceo of jpmorgan chase has recently come out and said that chase will always support blockchain technology following the official release of jp morgan's own cryptocurrency named jpm coin even ray dalio one of the largest hedge fund managers has admitted that he may be wrong about bitcoin by stating i might be missing something about bitcoin so i'd love to be corrected kathy wood believes that bitcoin may be ready for institutions and this could potentially push bitcoin to 400 or even 500 000 after all there is a limited supply of bitcoin and if institutions rush to buy bitcoin then the price would have no choice but to skyrocket uh and then the last thing that i think is going on is institutions are beginning to get interested in um in bitcoin and crypto assets uh generally uh and our analyst yasin mandra just wrote two bitcoin white papers on um on the the notion is is bitcoin are institutions ready for bitcoin really the opposite is true is bitcoin ready for institutions uh bitcoin the trading activity is the equivalent of one or two mega cap stocks uh uh in the uh in the stock market so it's still quite small relative to the stock market and certainly relative to the bond market but we do see institutions starting to nibble and i liken this to the early days of institutions moving into real estate and emerging markets they started out with a half a percent allocation then one and then five percent uh or thereabouts seemed to be the right number uh if the same thing were to happen to bitcoin given uh this supply is going to top out at 21 million units uh if we were to see that mid single digit uh allocation to bitcoin on the part of institutions and this would be all institutions so this is not going to happen but just to dimension what could happen uh well bitcoin is closing in on 20 000 right now but if institutions were to go to that mid single digit uh uh territory in terms of allocation to bitcoin alone uh that would take it to somewhere in the 400 to 500 thousand dollar range so 20 000 to 400 to 5000.
the final question we must ask is whether bitcoin is still by today bitcoin has rallied substantially since the paypal crypto announcement and is at the time of recording this video approaching 20 000 kathy wood believes that the answer to this question is yes if we're thinking long term bitcoin still has a lot of potential for institutions and governments to buy in as a hedge against fiat currency we're currently at that inflection point where these large institutions will want to buy into bitcoin but there is a limited supply of bitcoin let's talk about bitcoin for a moment i think while everyone was focused on the big tech stocks bitcoin suddenly rallied from about 5 400 to nearly 18 000.
that was quite a shock to discover do you think it's a buy now and what would you say is the bull case for bitcoin well we believe it has a very long way to run and yes we're approaching uh the last peak which was 20 nearly twenty thousand dollars in 2017 uh and since then our confidence has grown let me know what you think about kathy what's price target for bitcoin do you think bitcoin will hit 500 000 or do you think that bitcoin will be shut down by governments if you haven't already and i'll see you in the next one
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