저자: RamdeoAgarwal · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 인도 시장은 아직 과열이 아니며 중소형주 강세와 외국인 자금 재유입으로 추가 상승 여지가 있다는 낙관론. 시장 밸류에이션: 니프티 기준 18,000이면 20배 수준이라 부담스럽지 않고, 900 수준은 아직 여유가 있다는 취지로 언급. 수급: 중소형주가 이번 실적 시즌 대형주를 크게 상회. 대형주는 기관 매도 후 재매수 시 프리미엄(30~35%)을 지불해야 해 기관 재진입 여지가 크다고 봄. 외국 기관 자금 20~25억 달러 유입 가능성 언급. 거시: 인도 GDP 비중이 세계 대비 3.75% 수준으로 낮아 장기적으로 6~7%까지 확대 여지가 있다고 주장. 1~2년 내 글로벌 비중 확대 가능성. 업종: 자동차·FMCG 지수가 지속 강세. 해상운임 하락(중국→인도 컨테이너 450달러 이하)과 원자재 비용 하락으로 마진 개선 기대, 소비재·자동차 마진 상승 전망. 리스크: 정치적 결정이나 글로벌 이벤트에 따른 외국인 매도 가능성, 해외 기관의 대형주 대량 매도 가능성 언급. 출연자 전망: 시장 추가 상승 여지 있음, 장기적으로 인도 비중 확대 낙관.
다듬은 글
Welcome to this episode of the Market Guru series. Today we're going to talk to a very special person. It's said that he's very impressed with Warren Buffett. In fact, he makes one trip a year because his worksheets are to go to every market and meet Warren Buffett. Yes, I'm talking about Ramdev Agarbatti, Chairman and Founder of Motilal Oswal.
Good morning, Ramdev Sir, I came to your office today and thought I'd talk to you a little bit. Let's take a tour of the office and talk with you. The market is also very close to high, so it's a good opportunity to talk to you. And let me tell you one thing about Ramdev Sir. Actually, I'll tell you one thing about the Motilal Oswal building in Ramdevra.
The lights outside are green or red. So, nowadays, he's not getting red. He's only seen it in the last one or two days. For the last three months, he's only seen green. So, I had to order a few more green lights. It will be because it is only moving green, so the rate will not be there, make it completely green, so come on, it is absolutely good sir, those who are so close to time hi and obviously coming a little closer to time hi, they are getting stuck a little, according to you, at this time the market is fine, it has not become too expensive, no, see, 900 means a lot, that is what our Gautam says, and if we beat it and make it up to 900, then money mistry's 9 optimistic 950, your sir, if the index is 18000, then you understand that 20 means 21, so it is not scary, it is not scary, actually, you were reading Gautam's report cream, it is very convenient, in that report actually, I was seeing that compared to the last time's pick, the biggest difference to me is that midcap small caps have outperformed this time, that is why this time they had performed even higher, so this time near the soil, show your considerable outperformance, what is the reason for that according to you, the local people are buying It is the domain of institutions, so when the fees are reduced, then what about in the large caps, they can afford to buy a billion dollars, 10 billion, 20 billion, so what if they sold, they sold whatever they had door to door, but it will be very difficult to buy them back, you have not talked about their entry before, whatever their exact entry may have been, it is going to be very painful, this is happening in everything, today so many big blogs are exiting, all these companies are very big, so big, say no, good demand on high quality big caps and there is enough right and so I think they are less and there is no problem, but dear, actually the moment is disturbed, which political decision you get out 2530 million and the market absorbs, but I think this time the strange phenomenon comes, what about this sold it when you do retail, so no, do you get it back, absolutely you know if you have less than enough Institutions in the market would have public money on a lot but these institutions are buying them but this time market has been bought by doctors, date match and retail very lovingly at full price level, meaning 10-15 days ago it was down 20% but when they come back to buy, they will have to pay a full 30-35% premium.
So according to you Ramdev Sir, it means that there is still a lot of upside left in the market because if they come and you are saying 20-25 billion dollars and they will come easily and our average is two billion dollars, that means, according to you, there is also buying of global locations, other emotionally we see, there is also 22, if they have to go to India then they will go, of course, now that too is late at the market rate within 6 months, that is not the thing, so I think when will it happen, how will it happen, I don't know yes, but what is it, look at the nutrition of India, understand India's GDP, Global GDP share in India, like your 300.75 train has just come to take Global GDP 100, then you will be like 3.75, brother we are part of The world market cap GDP worldwide and India it is also one time broadly so our city is 3.75 it should be bought at least that much so that is in my opinion if you look at the total fee number then I think it is 700-800 villon so date is just about one day ago date that I think we will reach 67% in 10-15 years now on global glaze so like your journey of 6, leave aside 6, you two-three, what will be the journey between two and three and when will it happen, how will it happen, all this is a matter of time but I have no doubt that there will be a journey from one to two, okay if you talk to these five brokers or those who are located then you will understand more that first of all, what I am saying in this is correct or not, secondly how will this happen and when will it happen, why will it happen in this, like your Prime Minister's trip which is happening or some global event Indias bro, like you are saying today, today for the first time I heard that because there is demand There may be an answer to the ₹2000 note, I do n't know, Howard says why, if there is 8% plus GDP growth, that channel will go live, what is going on, FMCG and auto indices have led continuously and time is a little concerned, is the reason for this the problem is power because this pocket has led, what do you see in this, they had travelled a lot, the material cost, the entire logistics, the disturbance of global logistics, and all sorts of nonsense had flooded, and the content in everything has ended, I mean someone told me the day before yesterday, the container from China to India, what do you know, on 12, 13, 14 August, it was less than 450 and I am also lowering that type, I mean the total material cost basket of one of the glass manufacturers saying it is a common number of 30%, so as far as you see, both the companies, your auto and consumption, whatever it is, all of them are there, so the pricing power and policy was also low full Luxury will be their margins on the next forecard list
Comments 0