저자: GreatWally · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인은 가격 변동성 때문에 가치저장 수단이 아니라는 비판은 근거가 약하며, 파워로(Power Law) 지지선 모델상 현재 바닥 근처이고 장기적으로 우상향한다는 주장. 가격 흐름: 과거 1년 수익률이 역대 최악(파란 구간) 수준이며, 이는 과거 바닥 시기와 유사하다고 봄. 다음 주(10/24 주)쯤 바닥이 올 수 있고, 가격이 더 떨어지면 파워로 지지선 아래로도 내려갈 수 있다고 봄. 모델 해석: 파워로 지지선은 10여 년간 깨지지 않았고, 이 선을 따라 비트코인은 장기적으로 상승해 왔다고 설명. 1년 평균 수익률은 과거 300~500%에서 현재 약 50% 수준으로 감소 중이며, 점차 100%에 수렴할 것으로 봄. 리스크: 자산 역사가 짧고 모델이 깨질 수 있으며 보장은 없다고 본인도 인정. 투자 권유가 아니라 자신의 해석이라고 명시. 출연자 전망: 장기적으로 비트코인은 항상 양의 수익률을 낼 것이라는 견해. 출연자 전망 요약: 단기적으로는 바닥 가능성, 장기적으로는 우상향 견해.
다듬은 글
Bitcoin is not a store of value; its price doesn't give it value, especially when you look at the price movements of the last few months, argues Peter Schiff. This is also the general opinion, the kind you hear at the pub. But looking at it over the years, it looks quite different. These days, you have to start thinking about how to protect the value of the Euro.
We're experiencing a gigantic loss of purchasing power that is currently becoming even more entrenched, and I think inflation could remain at an unhealthy level. This is probably also the reason why young people, despite the criticism of Bitcoin as a store of value, see Bitcoin as such, and their numbers are growing.
For months now, we've been seeing a huge summer sale, and that's exactly what we're looking at in this chart today. But again, of course, this is just my interpretation of the data, not financial advice. If you're also a bargain hunter, then give me a thumbs up, subscribe, click the bell, and help me fight the YouTuber algorithm.
In this two-part chart, the top side shows BTC, meaning Bitcoin measured in US dollars. Yes, it 's also quite interesting when you measure it in euros, and the whole thing is on a weekly basis. This means that each individual point represents a weekly close star, so each of these points represents a weekly close star.
The weekly closing price, all colored in, we'll get to that in a moment. For orientation, here are the Haflings again, yes, the Haflings, from the first to the third Hafling, drawn as blue lines. And we see a white line here; this is one of my favorite models, this Power Law. Yes, this Power Law support is what it is in this case, a line that shows us very well or could be the bottom, because it has been true for over 10 years.
Well, we have the upper part, and this connects the upper part of the chart with the lower part via the color. Here we have the one-year return, which we haven't looked at for a very long time. So, the return on investment, the return on Bitcoin investment in percent, all relative to 100%. So, where are we one year later?
If we stay at 100%, we are at 100% one year later. If we're below it, of course, we've made a loss; if we're above it, we've made a profit. Yes, this is shown here below. We see this going back to 2011. Yes, and that's how I have to build this number. The first points are gray, of course, and then the color starts.
But I think you can see quite well what this is about, and what it's all about. What are we doing in this chart? Why do I want to do all this today? So, the typical " why" question. Yes, we always clarify that up here. And the question is, where is this store of value? Yes, where is the new store of value called Zimmer, so nice.
Yes, so here are two of the many things I want to discuss today, based on price. As we know, I always do this in different ways, also where I look at the value of Bitcoin. Here, I'm again going into it typically by price, and the store of value, or Bitcoin as a store of value, is shown here based on price.
Just so you know, if you want to discuss the charts with me, you can find me here on Discord. Hector here, Hector 07. Hello, welcome! Just like Missoir, who just joined. I'm glad to have you. It's always interesting when new people join, just like on Telegram or Twitter, Telegram managed by BOKU. You know the drill.
Now, let's get to the chart. We want to discuss what's actually going on here, and anyone who's ever seen this Arroa, this one here, knows... I'll start by drawing in these mining returns, these decreasing profits. Yes, so no one needs to assume that Bitcoin will generate such profits again in the future.
No one needs to think that in the past... that should be clear to everyone. Yes, but you have to be content with what you have, and what I want to point out here, and what's so exciting right now, is the bottom. We can see it here. Yes, we're in the blue zone. So we currently have the worst returns imaginable on a one-year basis.
So, anyone who bought a year ago, exactly a year ago, is currently experiencing maximum pain. You can already see maximum pain. And we see all of this especially up here. I want to draw it in blue again. Yes, whenever there have been moments of maximum pain, we've actually reached or are close to the bottom here, or at least...
We've arrived at the turnaround moment, yes, when most have had to endure a lot of pain. But it's not there yet, we're not at rock bottom yet, we haven't reached the next pain yet. What is this, or when will we reach the next pain? I've extended the chart a bit, and if we transfer it from today to next week, then that will be next week, or October 24th.
Yes, so this week, from October 24th, we would have reached the bottom. If Bitcoin's price even falls further, then we would go even lower than this. Do I have to be in red again? What's happening here? In the past, we were always above it. Now, yes, you can see that, and we would even go lower than what has already happened in the past.
Now, what does this bottom mean? Does it even mean anything? In my opinion, yes. Yes, folks, in my opinion, yes. What's happening here? You see, when we reach the upper points, then we've actually seen something like the top, or at least we see very high returns. We're in the red zone, and then we see the area or the time where we really don't have any good profits.
Of course. It goes up and down in between, we 're not a trading channel here, it's about what the chart is doing overall. Here too, yes, you see, I'll show you down here and we're very high up. Yes, this isn't rocket science, it's going down here, yes, and we know that we're heading towards the bottom somewhere.
We don't know the exact bottom, but it's an ugly time as it continues to go down. Just like this, bam, here it goes down to this point. So for me, it's a kind of... well, basically, this bear market behavior, we've seen it again and again in the same way over the last 10 years, and here even, as we said, the first tab was the last decision, not the second, the first.
Yes, from there, we have to say we actually crashed back to this Power Lars support. Yes, so after the hafing, we see the top, and then it goes into a bear market down into the crypto winter. But what does this point mean now? A low in the one hierarchical... well, to be honest, after this it went up, yes, it went up, you can see it.
Here, right up to the top, and you could really say that based on this data, you could tell where the bear market is and where the bull market is. That would be one way to define it. You know, it's all a matter of definition. But from there, it went upwards, not straight, but it always went upwards.
And at least along this power law support, is the law—no, of course not— but the last 10 years of data history show us that it has always been like this. And from that perspective, I would say we are getting closer to this power law support and slowly going upwards. How long that will take, whether it will be fast or slow, we do n't know, but that is the turning point.
And if we look at the past, then this turnaround would be next week, folks. Yes, and then next week it would be time. If the Bitcoin price goes even further down, all the better. Yes, if the Bitcoin price goes up first, the game changes a bit. Yes, but at the moment it all looks like we've reached the bottom.
Nevertheless, we can also go further down, contrary to the past. Yes, that's also possible. Yes, but then certain models will be broken again. Yes, and here we have to... Always keep an eye on which models are still valid and which aren't. And of course, we could go even further down to get to this power law.
Now we're somewhere around... ah, guys, I do n't even know. 14,000, I think, was very old. Am I below that here? But I think 14,000, and then regularly... You can, of course, get the chart and analyze it yourself. I can't see it here anymore; take a look yourself, it's linked below. I always provide it to you for free.
You get the charts, you can do what you want with them. You don't have to pay for a Glass Note account or anything else. Yes, you just get the charts from me below and can work with them. Yes, what could be better? Yes, no guarantee, of course, guys. So what does this mean? This could be a possible turnaround.
Yes, and in the past, it was like this... and well, we'll see. But it's about the story of value. Yes, and the store of value certainly wasn't there if you look at the red areas. Yes, so if we... if we... then everyone would say... no store of Berlin. Yes, not here. But that's very simple, guys. So...
Bears are saying Bitcoin isn't a good store of value because of inflation, and that Bitcoin isn't a good store of value. That's weak, in my opinion. We need to look at the overall trend, the general model behind it, and for me, that's currently the Power Low Support model, also known as the Paula model, and that's pointing upwards.
And if we get down here a few times, then that actually means we'll always have positive returns, always positive returns. Yes, folks, of course, don't rely on that. Yes, we never know. It's still a young asset class, and we can see all sorts of crazy things, and models can be broken. Yes, so I don't want to convince anyone of anything here, but when we talk about store of value, Bitcoin has never disappointed us in the past.
Because look at what we do—this boundary analysis—this upward trend goes to every point of this parametric model, which describes Bitcoin so well in the past. And that's exactly what our models are that we analyze, that we dissect. Yes, it's nothing more than a description of the past, and Bitcoin has never disappointed us there.
Yes, we've always had positive upward trend, and that's exactly what we see down here as a white line. Yes, this always Consistently positive, so these consistently positive returns, yes, we see these consistently positive returns here as a line, as a curve, approaching the 100% mark, but we are still far from the 100% mark.
We have always seen positive returns on an annual basis on this paranoia support, and currently we are still at an average annual return of 50% if you are running on the power, so here over the year always 50% upwards, yes, at least here, of course the trend is decreasing, but here it was about 50% upwards, here it was still, yes, if you, for example, have become a bit of an idea at 70%, 80%.
Here, the average return was still at 300, yes, but here we see 500, yes, but that's decreasing, it's approaching the 100% mark, and that's why I honestly ask myself, when I always hear these critics, when I always hear these critics, I always wonder, ca n't you see that we have a model here that Bitcoin has never broken, so to speak, and which is bringing us closer to 100% in terms of returns.
That means there's value in it, yes, definitely, yes, we're approaching the 100% mark from above, and even if we 're only at two or three percent at some point, it would actually be the perfect Store of the Valley as long as we're somehow above inflation. Yes, so we're approaching 100%, notice it will take forever, maybe even 100 years.
Maybe America can make my second video in the future where we analyze how long it takes until we approach this 100% mark. But it will continue like this forever, and Bitcoin will always be positive. They generate returns, but that's just my opinion on the whole thing. Yes, I'd be interested to hear your opinion on the topic.
Let me know in the comments section below. And if you liked this German continent, of course, then give me a thumbs up and subscribe (the little bell next to "Fight Against the YouTubers"). Otherwise, you'll see this and I'll be in the next module.
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