저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프의 이란 농축우라늄 발언과 전쟁 목표가 모순되며 거짓말일 가능성을 주장. 호르무즈 해협 봉쇄 위험과 소형 선박·기뢰 위협이 크고, 미국의 군사 목표는 대부분 실패. 나토 탈퇴 가능성과 우호국 압박이 상승 리스크. 고용 지표(ADP 6.2만)와 해고율 안정으로 경기 기반은 견조해 bear-bull 스케일은 4.9로 중립에 가까움. 시장은 단기 분쟁을 무시하는 경향이나 2~3주 내 확전 가능성을 높게 보고 하방 위험 강조. 레스토레이션하드웨어·나이키 하락 예측은 과거 발언.
다듬은 글
Donald Trump just gave some hints as to what we should expect tonight. We need to talk about these immediately. Today is April 1st. It is coupon code expiration day at meetkevin.com. More on that later. For now, let's hit the facts. First, I believe that it is a wild for Donald Trump to say the following.
Donald Trump just said this morning that quote, I don't care about the 460 kg of 60% highly enriched uranium that Iran has because it is so far underground and it could be monitored by satellites. I think there are a few fallacies here. First, as this war began, we were told that we didn't know where the highly enriched uranium actually was.
Now, I kind of suspect we do have an idea as to roughly where it is, but remember a lot of the underground tunnels that Iran maintains can easily be out of eye shot of a satellite. Uranium could be loaded into vehicles and get transported somewhere else. So, I think it's wild to say that at first, we're going to go in and invade Iran because they're weeks away from a nuclear weapon.
And now all of a sudden, actually, you know, on second thought, all the uranium's buried anyway. We know where it is and it's so buried, they can't get to the uranium anyway. Which then sort of just makes you question like why the hell did we invade then in the first place? Well, we'll start striking.
We haven't actually boots on the ground invaded, but literally, right? And and with cruise missiles. What why did we launch this war or military operation against Iran if we knew all along that the uranium was buried and inaccessible and we were monitoring it? I I thought that was the whole justification for going in.
They're, you know, a week AWAY FROM A BOMB. SO, I'm I'm a little bit pissed that all of a sudden now Donald Trump is doing the, you know what? We don't even really care about the uranium. Because it either means he was lying to go into this operation and oh, you know, we need to we we need to stop them from producing a bomb.
They have that uranium. They're about to produce a bomb. He was either lying then or he's lying now and he actually has absolutely no idea where the freaking uranium is. And uh frankly, that almost feels worse. Because if he doesn't know where the uranium is, it means that Iran could actually continue to produce a bomb.
Donald Trump might just lie to us and tell us that they're not producing a bomb because he doesn't actually know, but he needs an off-ramp from this war because insiders like J.D. Vance and others are saying that Donald Trump is getting a little impatient with the war and he wants an off-ramp because he's got to focus on midterm elections.
So, let's just lie about the nuclear threat again either then or now and just make it all seem like it's okay. Now, the stock market likes this. That's fine. We knew that would happen as well. I got the green Luigi hat this morning on my course member live stream. Remember meetkevin.com coupon expires today.
This morning on the course member live stream, I said, look, I don't even think we're going to 577 today. I said those words in my live stream. I said yes, there would be a natural bounce at 577. We did this in pre-market, but I don't even think we're going there. I think we're pretty much straight up.
And what we ended up doing is we spent some time shopping where high volatility is so that way or remains so that way you could actually pick up sold put contracts and earn somewhere between 7 to 11% over the next 90 days through theta decay. There were some really great options out there even on some mag sevens.
Some also had lower volatility which were more desirable for call options. Those are the sort of things we do in the alpha reports in the morning. But what really matters right now beyond just the stock market rising because, you know, that's obviously potentially shorter term momentum is or or enthusiasm is understanding what's actually happening in Iran and some of the new information that we got.
So, first was this talk about, you know, hey, we don't care about the uranium anymore, which is a problem. But we also got an update that Donald Trump reiterates that the war will be over within two to four weeks. That's going to adjust our scenarios just slightly, not much. We're going to update those four scenarios we came up with yesterday and the percentage odds for those.
We're going to up the update that given that Donald Trump is unlikely to announce any kind of end to the war today. It's more likely he's going to forecast an end to the war two to four weeks out and he still has work to do. So, we'll slightly update some of those projections. But I I want you to understand something for right now.
First, we don't really know what's going on with the uranium. I already ranted about that. The second thing is before the war, we were told that there would be a limited economic impact from the Strait of Hormuz. That oil might go up a little bit, but it shouldn't be a big deal. And it's turning out to be a really big deal.
Yes, now oil prices have come down a little bit on optimism, but we can see they can go up just as quickly as they come down. And the fact of the matter is while CENTCOM tells us we have destroyed 92% of large Iranian craft, what we have not actually done is a addressed or talked about the smaller mid-sized Iranian craft risk.
Here is just some video for example of tunnels of sea mines from this is footage from 2025 of sea mines. There you go, sea mines on the right. In a bunch of small boats on trailers ready to be deployed into the Strait of Hormuz to make it basically impossible to reopen it. And they have thousands of these small to mid-sized craft.
These obviously pictured here relatively small size. This is a problem and it makes it really, really difficult to actually secure the strait because you could get overwhelmed by either autonomous you know, submersible drones or just these these small manned craft. Very, very challenging. And so, the reason I bring this up is because while, you know, militarily we're like, oh yeah, okay, we destroyed their air force and their navy.
Sure, but does that help us reopen the Strait of Hormuz or is that just the appetizer? Do we have a lot more work to do? So, so far I feel like actually destroying the full navy of Iran, Trump's going to paint it as a success. I'm not so certain about that. It seems a little bit like a failure to me.
Uranium and preventing the nuclear bomb? To me, it just seems like you're rebranding what you originally told us, which feels like a failure. Destroying Iran's ability to launch drones? I mean, we just had a tanker get struck. Kuwait got struck. Their airport got struck. We're seeing missiles and and cluster bombs continue to hit Israel.
We're seeing drones continue to get launched by Iran. Their ability to continue to harass their neighbors is clearly not eliminated. Sure, maybe it's quote-unquote diminished as Hegseth says. This isn't over. So, we failed at destroying their ability to launch weapons. We failed at keeping the strait open.
We failed at uranium. We failed at your regime change. Although Donald Trump is now trying to argue that the son of the Ayatollah taking over as the new supreme leader is somehow a new regime that's less extreme even though the son has historically been more extreme than the father. The father was actually seen as more of a free market pragmatist than than than the son, you know, the father was.
Which which is just crazy to me. So, now Trump has gone into this war. He's failed on multiple fronts and now there's the potential, and this is what we might also hear, that Trump wants to pull out of NATO. Now, a lot of people who really like Trump might be like, well, what do we what do we need them for anyway?
I just tell you know, from my point of view when you know me, I just I hate politicians because I think they're all lying scumbags and a lot of them are frankly very corrupt. But I think pissing off all of our friends around the world is a terrible long-term investment. Hey, if you want some short-term gains, sure, go bully all your friends and I'm sure they'll, you know, give you some money.
It's basically what's happening. But this is this is another update that we just got today that now we're potentially considering pulling out of NATO. At the same time, the Houthis have joined the war. Iran calls the ceasefire talks fake news. And Israel is occupying and destroying southern towns in Lebanon.
So far, all of this is escalatory, which is bad. Now, in fairness, this morning in our course member live stream, I did raise our bull bear scale to 4.9. But the reason I did that is not because of Iran. We might get a little bit of clarity on his game plan, but what mattered more for me on the bear bull scale was the fact that ADP employment came in above expectations at 62,000.
We're still not seeing layoffs moves and move layoffs layoffs move up in the JOLTS reports, which are very important for tracking. And we've kind of been relatively stable for the last 2 years even in the face of Amazon meta layoffs, Oracle layoff. We're just not seeing aggregate data indicate that these layoffs are leading to a meaningful increase in the overall layoff rate.
In other words, the layoff rate where we are sort of already accounts for the fact that we're going to get a certain number of companies like Oracle firing thousands of workers every month. That's just sort of built into the layoff rate that we have. So, this along with the stabilization that we've been reporting on in private credit in March with secondary offerings and bond pricing for private credit stabilizing suggests there is some hope and optimism for the underlying economy.
Rate hikes off the table so far. They got unpriced. Private credit at least stabilizing, not saying it's perfect. Still some problems with circular financing in AI, open AI, still some problems over there. They just you know, raised some more money, but we got to talk about that in a separate video because what's happening behind the scenes is is a little bit of a red flag for open AI, but part of it is because the money's just moving over to Anthropic.
So, the circular nature can sort of keep going. But, all of those things are actually just a sign of you know, an economy with risks, but nothing existential so far. The Iran war is still a big issue, and that's why we've got to understand these four scenarios. Before I look at those four scenarios though, I just want to give you a sneak peek at something that that I like to do for course members.
So, this is just free information for you. Take a look at this. Back in November, I was asked a lot about Restoration Hardware and Nike, and so I wrote this in the course member side that this is a company that is still holding inventory from pre-tariffs. The CEO sounds very bearish in the call, and it might be a few quarters too early to call the bottom.
Let the bad margins hit first. We need to see the impact of tariffs first before actually wanting to invest in Restoration Hardware, right? And so, what's interesting is I give this negative warning on Restoration Hardware, and what you'll find is Restoration Hardware today is down 22%. I gave that warning back in November.
And if you scroll up, you can actually see right here uh in uh on March 13th, I took another look at Restoration Hardware before their earnings. And I said the following. They'll be able to get through the next 12 months with the financing situation they have, but after that, they're going to have to start refilling inventory, and things might get tougher at these low margins.
I literally wrote the words, "This is a slow sinker stock. Basically, stay away from it. It's too early to buy it." And then uh sure enough, uh today we got earnings out from the company. They uh missed revenue. They missed EPS by 30%, and the stock's down like 22%. Their pricing power is literally shriveling up, and their balance sheet is horrible.
So, it's not a surprise they're down 22%. Uh and this is, you know, some of the stuff that you get in the Alpha report when we do our longer-term fundamental analysis, medium-term swing trades, or short-terms. Another thing that I could show you is meet uh or um you know, a lot of people like, "Hey, Kevin, you know, Meet Kevin, what do you what do you think about Nike?
Nike, should I buy the dip? Should I buy the dip?" I've been covering Nike for a while, uh and we did this deep dive on Nike uh back in October where we're like, "Folks, their pricing power is falling." Uh people might be buying the stock because it's cheap, but I wrote, "I think it's cheap for a reason." Uh I actually went through with course members competition for other shoes, uh other shoe brands, uh also you know, doubted some of what they're actually arguing in uh their earnings call.
You know, this is what we do. Uh if you actually look at another update I made over here on December 19th, I wrote that the stock is even more depressing than what it was previously. Uh so, the numbers were just getting worse for Nike. And then, what a surprise when you actually look at the earnings for Nike.
Aw, it's down off a cliff another 14%. Fundamental analysis can help us see trends come way earlier than the markets can often react. Fundamental analysis can take years to actually play out both on the upside and the downside. And I think having a confident view of the fundamentals of the stocks that you're investing in uh can help you stick with them during the rough times and really profit in those long times.
Uh so, if you haven't yet, you know, make sure you're part of that meetcameron.com. We got a big coupon code expiration today. You can also use that over at househack.com if you want the real estate uh artificial intelligence. We are now in the second quarter, which means this is the quarter when our valuation AI gets released, which is really exciting.
We're going to have a major price increase then. But anyway, remember to use this coupon code before uh the end of the day today. So, let's now go into the four scenarios that we should look at for Iran. So, these were the four scenarios we talked about yesterday. I'm actually now moving the fact that Donald Trump is going to bash our allies to the baseline.
You know, this is where yesterday we had the baseline Donald Trump, everything was sort of like orange in the room. Like, let's go ahead and you know, pull up a little bit of orange here. There, we'll make everything orange. Our allies suck. And we might bail out of NATO. They can get their own oil.
It's too early for this. This is too early for this. Let's go back to the reinvest colors. Uh okay. Anyway, so uh I think the baseline is going to be that Donald Trump is going to trash NATO and our allies even though this was uh his war, which was clearly uh under once again false pretenses, which is just the same that we saw during Operation Iraqi Freedom.
They have the nukes. Uh the Mujaheddin was given the plans. They got the nukes. [snorts] Well, that leads me to updating these scenarios here a little bit. Uh so, what I've done is I've downgraded scenario number four. Scenario number four yesterday, I gave it a 10% chance. Uh and this was basically him saying, "Our allies suck.
We're out, and we'll monitor." So, I'm actually downgrading that to 5% because the information that we got here this morning suggests that Donald Trump has that two to three weeks worth of work left to do. So, I'm upgrading scenario number two to 30%, which is prepare for escalation. We take the strait by force, or the 35% scenario, we take the land and strait by force.
And then of course, we're still left with the 30% scenario that he just tries to beg for calm, uh and it's sort of a pep talk on how good things are going and how bad our allies are or whatever. But but I actually think there's a higher likelihood that we're going to have an escalation over the next two or three weeks.
Uh markets will tend to see through a short-term conflict just as oil has been. Oil futures really have not been pricing in a long-term conflict here. The biggest risk with all of this is that American lives end up being lost, and then Donald Trump says, "You know what? We have to avenge the lives that have been lost, and we need to go deeper." Uh and uh just kidding on the uranium by the way, we need to go find it.
So, there's there's a lot of risk to the downside, uh even though on the short-term technical basis, a lot of shorts got covered yesterday. Today is uh totally uh a cash deploy day. It makes complete and reasonable sense, especially based on the fundamental data that we're seeing from the economy. Uh but, this presentation tonight at 6:00 will lay out Donald Trump's frustrations, uh and the risks are not entirely cleared up yet.
Now, there's also talk that the risk of recession is growing. Uh you know, I don't want to like doomer recession. Uh I just think the way to look at this is if you have cash, and you're deciding, "Do I buy the dip now?" You have to ask yourself, "Well, do I need that money over the next five years?" Because if we go into a recession, or even 10 years, if we go into a recession, it's it's going to take a while to get out of it.
Especially with a Kevin Warsh. We're not going to print our way out of a recession as fast as we would under like a J. Powell, Bernanke, or Janet Yellen. So, we'll be in the hole longer. So, you have to be prepared to be in the hole longer. As long as you don't have these you know, any kind of massive debts that are coming due or obligations that are coming due, and you have that free cash available, I don't think there's a problem with buying the dip here.
Not a problem at all. Uh we've been talking about this pretty regularly in the Alpha report with buying the dip. Uh that said, there are real risks to the downside, and it's why I sit at that midpoint still on the bear-bull scale. Uh I'm up because of the underlying economic data strengthening, but I still have my hesitations about what's going on with Iran, mostly because I think we're being lied to.
Anyway, go to meetkevin.com, check out that coupon code. Uh we'll stop talking about it after today, and uh we'll uh we'll keep getting to good content here. All right, folks. Thanks for watching. .
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