저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
Vijay Kedia는 가격·기간 목표 없이 장기 보유를 원칙으로 하며, 매도는 밸류에이션만으로 하지 말고 자본배분 악화나 경영진 이해 불일치 등 명확한 근거가 있을 때만 해야 한다고 강조. 과거 사례(Bajaj Finance, Shree Cement)를 들어 조기 매도의 후회를 설명하고, 결과가 아닌 의사결정의 질로 판단하라고 말함. 시장은 투자자를 공포로 매도하게 설계되어 있다는 관점. 자산 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
Basically, my approach is very simple and straightforward. I don't have any price target. I don't have any time target. So, I had been rewarded with this principle and I had been penalized also with this principle. Now, coming to the penalty part, I'll tell you that one company I'd invested before COVID way back, maybe 7 8 years back.
Say at 50 rupees. So, after COVID, it went up to 1,000 rupees. And I did not sell any shares because that time, if you know, it is this company is into e-commerce and all. So, after COVID, everybody was into e-commerce. That was the only way one can trade, one can buy, one can sell. That was the only flavor of the, you know, century.
After So, it went up to 1,000 rupees and stock price has also become very expensive, quoting at 60 70 P. But people were talking about 100 P, 200 P, this and that, all those. The Zoom car with the company that that was also trading at 400 P or whatever it is. [snorts] So, this is what I also got carried away.
Take care. So, this is what I also thought. Now, [snorts] today shares is 270 rupees. You know, so you in life what I have understood, no Mangalam, you don't get answer to everything. You know, and one thing more I have learned in stock market that you have to adopt, you have to follow one policy, one principle.
Sometimes you will get a positive return, sometimes you will get a negative return. I am not so smart that every time I can change my policy. Okay, for this stock I have because all my stocks are for only for long term, for an indefinite period. So, for me it is very difficult. Sometimes of course I do take actions.
I sell some of my shares, but sometimes I don't. So, this is okay. This is what we learn and we don't learn. Whatever it is, you have to accept it. You know, because your input could be same, but output every time in market is different. Totally agree with you. We will be we will, you know, talk about the biggest learning that I have got from whatever little I've you know, learned from all these people over the years is that you can never judge the quality of a decision by the outcome of that decision.
If you don't understand that, you know, I I I'll tell you. If I ask you what according to you was the best decision of your life, chances are that you will tell me what was the best outcome of your life. Right? If you're walking down the Jaipur Lit Fest and you hear Vijay Ji talk about some random share, you go ahead and buy it.
You make money. Was that a great decision? No, that was a great outcome. Right? On the other hand, if you do your own research, if you speak to a lot of people, you try and understand, do your own analysis, invest in that company, you lose money in that. Was that a great outcome? No, but was that a great decision?
Perhaps yes. So, that's something that Vijay Ji has been, you know, trying to explain to everyone and that I think if the earlier one learns in life, the better it is. What about you? What have you learned from exits? You know, so I'll give an example of a specific very very very big fund manager in India running I don't want to give too much away, but a large domestic mutual fund.
And we were once chatting about Shree Cement. I just brought up Shree Cement. I said, "What a great company." He says, "Please don't talk about Shree Cement. It gives me depression." I said, "Did you lose money in that stock?" Because it's hard to lose money in Shree Cement at least until recently. And he said, "No, I bought at 70 rupees 9.9% of the company.
And when it went to 700, I sold all of it. And I regret it because the stock now is 27,000 rupees. So, timing I think is all about, you know, I and I tell my kids the same thing. Life is all about timing. And also I think it's important not just specifically to stocks, but you know, who you choose as your life partner, who you choose you know, to work with work for you.
A lot of lot of decisions really are all about timing. You know, it it extends beyond the stock market. All right, it extends beyond the stock market. Something that you learned from an exit? So, uh you know, there is a good quote by Peter Lynch which I don't remember the exact words, so I'll just paraphrase, but basically what he says is that market's job is to basically scare you out of your positions.
And and I experienced that day in and day out. Every day you will get nine things that scare you. You know, whether it is a war happening somewhere or whether it is an IT raid happening somewhere or whether something or the other is happening. And markets are designed to scare you out of your position.
So, do enough work, develop enough conviction to not get scared out of your position because as you can see from all the examples that everybody is giving that it is the holding that makes you the money, not the exit. Yes, of course there will be some that you will end up holding the can and those will be bad ones, but at least the biggest mistakes of our life has not been the one that I bought and I sold.
It's the one that I bought or sold too early or did not have the conviction to buy enough. And from that perspective, of course, I mean I consider Bajaj Finance to be one of my biggest mistake of exiting too early and for frivolous reasons like it's too expensive. Four and a half books, we have never seen these kind of valuation.
I mean, in hindsight of course. Do not make valuation your only and only reason for exiting a stock. Yes, of course there are times when you need to take a call that, you know, market has gone bonkers, everything is crazily valued and one should be exiting or getting some money on the table, but those are once in a decade kind of decisions and do not be in a hurry to take that kind of decision.
Even during the recent corrections, you know, a lot of people have been bearish and saying that this is we are stuck in some kind of a slowdown in economy and valuations are very expensive. For sure those those things are true, but getting out of your most highly convinced ideas will be the biggest mistake you'll make because markets are going to correct 10% 15%.
And that has been my learning. You need a real solid reason to get out of a particular company and it cannot be linked just to valuations. There has to be either the capital allocation gone wrong or promoter and your interests are not aligned anymore. Or the third reason is of course that markets are bonkers and they are paying you 10 20 30 years out.
All right, we take that point completely. You know, I would like also like to thank you for saying markets are designed to make you scared or get out of your position and you did not say media is designed to scare you out of your position because that's what we often hear. But, you know, to Gautam's point on it's all about timing, everything is not just the market, but beyond that also.
So, the final point is that what have your learnings from life outside of market been that have actually taught you to be better investors or that have influenced some of your investment decisions? Yeah, I think I had the good fortune of working at Reliance Industries in their corporate finance and M&A team and directly under people like Manoj Modi and Mukesh Ambani.
I think the vision and I'm not here to market Reliance Industries. It's great company, but the fact is the one thing that they've gotten right over the last 45 years of their existence is the fact that what is the TAM? Total addressable market. Please remember that, uh ladies and gentlemen. TAM is very important and it's very relative.
So, if you look at I'll give you an example. Uh Mercedes-Benz in 2024 in India all all models from uh A-class all the way to S-class, SUVs, everything included. I'm not talking about Bharat Benz, that's the passenger vehicles. They sold 18 and a half thousand cars in India. I'm not sure if this was their original vision, but uh if I were to compare like to like in China, they sold seven and a half lakh cars.
So, that's the understanding of what exactly is the total addressable market in India for a product. And we have to get realistic about that because the audience here, a lot of them can afford Mercedes-Benz. A lot of them can afford Colgate toothpaste. Okay, but let's get real about what is it what what is the total the TAM is X.
Let's say it's it's a I'm giving an example, 10 million people. If you bring the price point down by 90% of this product, what is the TAM become? And that's I think the way to to understand when you meet companies that what is the actual addressable market for the product this company makes? How big can this be in the next 5 to 10 years?
Total addressable market. Incredible insight out there and that actually smoothly flows into what I'm going to ask Mr. Kedia as well because you understood the total addressable market of a sector by just walking down the airport, I believe. Yeah, yeah. So, this [clears throat] is what I learned one very important thing in my life.
Uh you know, by walking at the airport, I realized that the dramatic change has taken place in India and the thing which was once supposed to be very luxurious segment had become necessary necessary it had become It's flying. Yeah, that was of course flying. So, I learned a lesson that when necessity when luxury becomes a necessity, that is the story to be watched in India.
And we can take the clue from the past. The same thing happened in telecom companies like telecom company with all the mobile and all these came maybe 95 or 94 or 96 or something and all and there were 16 companies at one point of time. And we used to pay 16 rupees for incoming, 16 rupees for outgoing and all.
And finally by 2014 or 15, there had been only two and a half companies that Jio came into the picture after 2014, I think. 16. And of course Bharti and Vodafone and all. And it was almost free like I pay 100 rupees, 125 rupees. I And but see the growth of Bharti Airtel and see the growth of Jio Telecom.
Who's the world's biggest conglomerate invested in that company. The same thing I applied into airlines also. When I saw the kind of people who started traveling in airlines, I remember earlier, you know, 20-30 years back when women would travel by plane, they would go to beauty parlor first. You know, and then after they would go into a plane and people would wear a madam be
That's my wife, BY THE WAY. SO, YOU YOU KNOW, THIS IS WHAT BOTH STOCK market and spirituality are all about. All roads lead to just one place. You have divergences of opinions, but eventually wealth creation is what you're looking at. He spoke about working with Reliance, bringing down the price point, increasing the total addressable market.
He spoke about, you know, when luxury becomes a necessity, it brings you a big market opportunity. Eventually, what did that lead to? Telecom, aviation. What did Reliance do for Telecom? Reduce the prices, increase the TAM. So, all of them led to the same place itself. It is all a full circle. So, like let's complete that circle.
Ravi, what have you learned from outside the market in your life that has made you a better investor? So, uh [clears throat] uh I won't say it's really really outside the market, but uh you know, as an analyst, we tend to judge the quality of a business by the margins it make. And uh higher the margins, better the quality of the business.
Uh but what I learned is much later in my life and I uh curse myself for that. But it is not the margins that matter. It's the return on capital that matters the most. And uh I I I don't know. You know, you might know uh Avenue Supermarts, which is D-Mart. When it got listed, it was listing at about 25,000 crore market cap.
And it seemed like crazily expensive at that point of time. And you know, this is a business where you're barely making 3-4% margin. And I just for the life of me could not understand how can this business be valued so highly. But what I understood is uh and you know, there is a very baniya mentality to it.
Any business which cannot be uh taken away by throwing money at it. Basically, what it means is it has very high entry barriers. So, that is the number one thing. And the other thing is how much money can you deploy and how much money can you make out of it? Again, that is a very baniya mentality. But if you get those two understanding right about the business, then it will you will understand that finally, again, investing is not very formulaic and you cannot be reductionist about depending on only one or two variable.
But if I have to give priority, then it's the combination of growth and ROCE that matters the most in an investment uh horizon. And that I learned from uh Motherson Sumi's promoter, Mr. Vivek Chand Sehgal, uh one of in one of the lecture that he was given. That he had a laser sharp focus on return on capital employed factory wise.
And I think that was a big learning that I got. All right, that's great learning. So, what I'll do is I'll before we open up for a one question at best, I'll I'll, you know, let the conductor of this orchestra take the last beat as well. Safir also is a man of many interests. Yes, he is a lawyer by the day, an investor by the day as well, 9:15 to 3:30.
Thereafter, he has his taste in fashion, music, all of that. A multi-faceted personality. Safir, what about, you know, life have you learned and that has made you a better investor, a better business person? And what have you learned, you know, through the journey of self, if you could summarize it?
You see, I chose fund managers here because they had live money at stake. And their mistakes are in public domain. So, therefore, it is easier to correlate to the mistake. There are a lot of mistakes in life that don't come out in public domain. Um and you know, you don't get penalized because here it's public money in the sense if my fund manager doesn't do well, I pull out money and he may actually be supporting the fact that I should be putting money, but I'm acting contrary to his own interest.
In that sense, I'm not even being a true partner. Why I chose to wrote the book despite being an IP lawyer is which is I'm not I don't manage any funds and therefore, I don't have this fund manager role is because I felt that in the word investment can be correlated to your life, your health. It can be correlated to behavioral science, decision making, anything.
And [snorts] what this book has done uh as of now, I'm only custodian of all the 26 chapters. So, I know I'm privy to all the 200 odd mistakes that are discussed in the book. Is that uh it is making me realize that even the decision making that I have to do, which could be legal, for example, uh I have to become uh you know, have to weigh all the consequences of uh natural thinking.
Uh and when I'm able to put that natural thinking to work, it's not necessary that you will buy this book and you may do well in the market. That is one thing, but you may also become a much more uh a much more considerate thinker. Uh and mitigate risk in a true sense. And being a student of economics uh from one of the top universities or colleges in the country, I realized that it is really sad that there is no topic called risk that is taught to you in a subject in school.
And risk is the biggest hindrance in a volatile world to your success. Uh so, this is in essentially a endeavor to sort of bridge that gap. And I'm like I said, I've got the benefit of a lot of smart people and uh who've contributed immensely to this thought process. I had to summarize all of what they had to say.
You know, this book is a 699 rupee book. So, don't let the valuation of this deter you from the value that this may bring you because at best, it will uh you know, make you a great person. At worst, it will make you a great investor. It is an absolute win-win. So, that's all that we have from uh you know, this session so far.
I will just add. 699 rupees is the price you pay, but the value you derive is a thousand multiple of that. You know, interestingly, this is the first time in my life that I've seen it on Twitter, people are writing to me saying why you priced it so cheap. We we So, reply to them that we reduced the price so that the TAM increases.
We We're taking away from the time of question. when we create a well-informed society where all of us collaborate to each other's learning, the price will be infinite. All right.
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