저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 전반적으로 시장 과열(IPO 광풍)을 경계하지만, 특정 종목·섹터에 대한 구체적 가격 예측은 제시하지 않은 영상. [시장 과열·괴리 진단] 실물경제(결혼 시즌, 자동차 판매 호조)와 주식시장의 괴리 질문에 대해 괴리는 없고 이미 가격에 반영됐다고 봄. 주식은 싸지 않다는 입장. [IPO 과열 비판] 최근 IPO 청약 광풍은 '광기(madness)'라고 표현. 청약 경쟁률이 100배 이상 나올 것이라는 비유를 들며 과열을 풍자. 이후 30~50% 하락하는 사례가 나오면 투자자 책임이라는 취지로 발언. [IPO 하락 전환] 지금까지 순조롭던 IPO가 처음으로 하락하기 시작했다고 언급. 투자자들이 배울 기회라는 표현 사용. [종목 선택 방식] 대형주 대비 중형주 밸류에이션이 많이 올랐다고 지적. 투자 대상은 6000개 기업 중 1~2개를 고르는 방식이라고 설명. 좋은 스토리를 가진 미래 성장 기업을 선택한다는 원칙 제시. [리스크·자기 평가] 추천 10건 중 2~4건은 틀린다고 인정. 강세장에서는 누구나 천재처럼 보인다며 강세장 수익을 과신하지 말라고 경고. [한계] 특정 자산(삼성전자, 비트코인 등)에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측 발언은 확인되지 않음.
다듬은 글
This time it is going to be spent on the wedding. Just think, that is a completely different dimension, not 12 ₹ 14 lakh crore people, otherwise it is the same thing. It seems like everyone is spending money somewhere except the market. A lot of money is coming into the IPO. Cars are selling well. The wedding season is going very well.
Like you're saying. But it is not showing in the market. So I'm wondering if there is now a disconnect. Between the real economy and what's happening in the markets. Is it a valuation issue? Much of the interest has gone into the private equity space. Why is it like this? No because I don't think there is any disconnect between the market price and what ever is happening in the economy.
I think it is already in the price. Stocks are not cheap. You know what happened inside the market just now? As you said, off course people have also turned their attention towards private equity. People, look at the IPO, what madness is going on inside the IPO. Do you consider this madness? Hey, this is 100% madness, brother.
The moustached paan seller you will see in a few days will also come up with an IPO. He will say that I have four paan shops. I have to open four more and I have eight networks, that too through AI, I will make paan. I will put a deep tag inside it. He will say a few words. My drink goes to the data center.
He is going to tell you that in all the data centres that TCS has opened, only my Banaras paan is going to be used in them. So, better yet, will that IPO be oversubscribed or not? Hey, that must be 100 times over subscribed brother. All the paan eaters will also do that. Even those who don't eat will eat it inside.
This is what is happening right now, see how all kinds of subscribers are being added, later there is 30% down, 40% down, 50% down, whom do you hold responsible for this, the merchant banker, the company which is raising the money or the people who are depositing the money, no of course I would say the people who are depositing the money, it is the job of the merchant banker, see if a lawyer saves someone even by lying then he is a lawyer, it is his job to advocate for him, I am not saying that the merchant banker lies, his job is to do banking, the poor fellow is doing his job, it is written in the railways that passengers should protect their luggage themselves.
You will leave your luggage here and there and go for a walk, you will get down to fill water, you will go to the toilet and then you will find that you have neither luggage nor any food, the lock is empty there, so you have to protect yourself madam, it is a simple thing, so the people who are there, now the government also sells liquor, also takes excise duty on liquor and also writes that drinking liquor is not allowed, so brother, why do you sell it, selling is their business, so why do you do that, doing that is their morality, so this is inside the share market, so the merchant banker is doing his work, you are giving money, so I can also take the money by opening a paan shop, the person giving it should know why I am doing this.
Ultimately, where will they go and whether they will get its benefit or not. So till now whatever was happening, everything was going smoothly. This is happening for the first time that all these IPOs have started going down. The shares that are there now. These people will get a great opportunity to learn.
Now it seems a little bit less, maybe it might be a little bit less. So the question then is if you are saying that markets are overvalued. If someone wants to invest money now, where should he invest it? If we look at the blue chips, the market cap of overvalued mid caps, which are called mid caps, has increased a lot.
Valuations are not settling. At least here it seems that you may get some opportunity in the new company. So where to invest the money? Because whatever you choose comes in the news that you have invested in a company and then its stock starts running up. So what is your formula by which you make selection?
No, of course the formula is not like this. The shares that I buy, I find that they rise and later they fall, and when the fever subsides, I find out what the practical situation is. I am also not right. Out of 10 of my calls, two-three or four of my calls go wrong. They are terribly wrong. It's not like that.
So and Everybody Is a Genius in a Bull Market. So I kept getting bull market and I also kept considering myself as Shana, that yes, it is okay, I am also Shana. So that market is the biggest Shana market, madam. Let us proceed with this understanding. So sorry what was your question or else how do you choose?
You're saying there's madness in IPOs. The market is overvalued. Not everyone can go into private equity. So how do you choose? So this is it, see what is there here, it is the same thing that a lotus blooms in the mud, so what you have to do is that right now I am not a fund manager that I have to make a portfolio of 200 companies or I have to buy 500 companies, I have to invest in 101 companies, so what I have to do is that there are 6000 companies, I have to choose only one or two companies, what we are talking about does not mean that all the companies are overvalued and all the companies are undervalued.
There is nothing like this in the market. So I have to choose a story, a good story in a market whose future market
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