저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 지수는 고점 대비 5~7% 조정 중이며 단기 횡보 전망, 실적·개혁 호재는 이미 주가에 반영됐고 IPO 과열은 꺼져가는 중이라는 입장. 거시·시장 흐름: GST 개혁, 분기 실적 개선 기대, 무역전쟁 완화, 소비 증가, RBI 금리 인하 등 호재가 있으나 시장이 움직이지 않음. 이미 할인되어 있다는 판단. 2021~2023년 같은 대형 상승장은 아직 멀다고 봄. 관세 문제가 해결되면 일부 시장은 빠르게 오를 수 있으나 안정화되거나 되돌림이 나올 수 있다고 언급. IPO·비상장 과열: 비상장·IPO 광풍을 '100% 광기'로 규정하며 청약 경쟁률 과열과 상장 후 30~50% 하락 가능성 언급. 상장 목적이 자랑용·기업 가치 포장용인 경우가 많다고 주장. 과열의 하락 국면이 시작됐다고 봄. 투자 책임은 주간사보다 투자자 본인에게 있다는 입장. 투자 대상 선택: 지수 대신 6000개 종목 중 10~15개 스토리 중심 선별 투자. 본인은 최근 비상장 사이버보안 2곳, 태양광 기업 등에 투자 중이며 포트폴리오의 10~15%를 스타트업·비상장에 배정. 상장 종목에서는 항공주, 병원, 관광 인프라에 관심. 반도체·AI·데이터센터: AI 관련 인도 기업은 실질적으로 없다고 봄. AI 수혜는 냉장고 사례처럼 도구를 잘 활용하는 기업(펩시·코카콜라 비유)에 돌아간다고 주장. 데이터센터는 장기 미래로 보나 현재 주가는 과열, 반도체·데이터센터 열풍은 결국 꺼질 것이라 봄. 본인 포트폴리오에는 AI 반도체 기업이 없다고 밝힘. 중국 비교: 인도는 중국보다 수십 년 뒤처져 있으며 로봇·휴머노이드 도입 등 중국의 흐름이 결국 인도에서도 일어날 것이라고 언급. 플랫폼 기업의 미래는 밝지만 이미 비싸서 투자하지 않는다고 함. 출연자 전망: 향후 12개월은 횡보 후 대형 상승을 기다리는 모습. 장기 전망으로 인도 경제·내수·헬스케어·관광 성장을 낙관. 관세 등 정책 불확실성은 단기 변수로 제시. 윤리·리스크 경고: FNO 투자자의 90%가 손실을 본다고 경고하며 자제 권고. 본인 추천 종목 중 10개 중 2~4개는 틀린다고 인정. 본인 이름을 사칭한 계정이 많고 자문·운용을 하지 않는다고 밝히며, 본인 종목 편승 매매를 경계하고 장기 보유 기질이 맞는 사람만 따르라고 함. 블록딜·지분 매도 가능성도 언급.
다듬은 글
So you know the thing about Vijay Kedia is he knows how to belt out the hits. Now he is a hit machine, right? So that's Kedia ji, and I am not just talking about your singing. I am talking about the stock picks. I am not just stock picks. Nowadays, Kedia ji's focus is not only on the listed space but also on the unlisted space, so we will talk a little about that as well.
But first of all welcome Kedia ji. Thank you so much for joining us on ND Prophet Ignite the Diwali Edition and in true style you kick off the festivities. Tell me whether that festive feeling is coming from within the market at this time or it has to be applied a little superficially. so thanks. Thank you very much for inviting me here on this auspicious month of Diwali.
And it is always nice to be interviewed getting interviewed you know by Tamanna. So your question is that I feel that a big mixed trend is going on in the market. So we have been celebrating Diwali for the last three years. We have celebrated a grand Diwali in 2021, 2022, 2023 and half of 2024. So this market is in a bit of a consolidation phase.
It is possible that this market will continue for some more time and then after that, it is possible that next year there will be some good prospects and some good sun will shine. No no, but what's the problem? If you look from an investor's point of view, the government has reformed GST. You have a sense that quarterly results are going to be better.
The problems related to trade war are also reducing a bit. Now let's see what happens to the tariffs. Consumption is increasing. RBI is supporting. The interest rate is decreasing. But nothing seems to be moving markets. Why do you think so? So I think the reason for this would be that whatever you said, sorry.
You can drink water, yes no, whatever it is, it's time now, 7:00 pm, not the time for water, it's not green tea, it's 7:00 pm, why are you laughing brother, you can drink water after 7:00 pm, it is like that, as was the feeling, God sees his face, so did he, whoever had what was in his mind, he caught that sentence accordingly, sorry, it seems to me that all these things are already such, the market is telling that they are already discounted.
See, the market grows only when there is a surprise in the market, so whatever you are saying now, earnings are coming. Anyway, the earnings are also a big mix. It is not that the earnings of every company are very good or some are very destructive. Nothing like this is happening anywhere. And reforms like GST etc.
have come. Well, of course, these were very long pending reforms which have come. It will start making a difference now. Understand that there will be a difference in this quarter ever since I read somewhere that this time the wedding season is going to come, whoever is going to get trapped in it after November till February, the people are going to get married, that means as per the market, this time 12-14 lakh crores will be spent on weddings, think about it, it is in a completely different dimension, not 12-14 lakh crores, otherwise it is the same thing, it seems that everyone is spending somewhere except the market, a lot of money is coming in through IPOs.
Cars are selling well. The wedding season is going very well. Like you are saying but it is not showing in the markets. So I'm wondering if there is now a disconnect between the real economy and what's happening in the markets is it a valuation issue. Much of the interest has gone into the private equity space.
Why is it like this? No because I don't think there is any disconnect between the market price and what ever is happening in the economy. I think it is already in the price. Stocks are not cheap. You know what happened inside the market just now? As you said, off course people have also turned their attention towards private equity.
People, look at the IPO, what madness is going on inside the IPO. Do you consider this madness? Hey, this is 100% madness, brother. The moustached paan seller you will see in a few days will also come up with an IPO. He will say that I have four paan shops. I have to open four more and I have to network eight.
I will make paan with the help of AI. I will take a deep take inside her. He will say a few words. My drink goes to the data center. I am going to tell you that in all the data centers that TCS has opened, my paan from Banaras is going to be sold in all of them, it is even better, will that IPO be oversubscribed or not, oh it will be 100 times oversubscribed brother, all the paan eaters will also do it, those who do not eat it will also do it, this is what is happening in it right now, see how the subscriptions are happening, later it is 30% down, 40% down, 50% down, whom do you hold responsible for this, the merchant banker, the company which is raising the money or the people who are investing the money.
No, of course, I would say that it is the job of the merchant banker for those who are investing the money. Look, if a lawyer saves someone even by lying, then he is a lawyer. It is his job to advocate for himself within himself. So I am not saying that merchant bankers lie. His job is to do banking.
That poor guy is doing his work. Passengers should protect their luggage themselves. It is written in the railway. You will leave your luggage here and there, go for a walk, go down to fill water, go to the toilet and then you will find that your luggage is empty and locked there. So you have to protect yourself madam.
It's simply the same thing. So now the government also sells liquor. It also charges excise duty on liquor and also makes it written that drinking alcohol will be allowed. So brother, why sell it? So selling is their business. So why do you Vern? It is their morality to warn. So this is inside the stock market.
So the merchant banker is doing his job. If you are giving me money then I can open a paan shop and take this money. The giver should know why I am doing this. Ultimately, where will they go and whether they will get the benefit or not. So till now whatever was happening, everything was going smoothly.
This is happening for the first time that all these IPOs have started going down. The shares that are there now. These people will get a great opportunity to learn. Now it seems that maybe it will be a little less. So the question then is if you are saying that markets are overvalued. If someone wants to invest money now, where should he invest it?
If they look at the blue chips overvalued. The market cap of mid-caps, which are called mid-caps, has increased a lot. Valuations are not settling. At least here it seems that you may get some opportunity in the new company. So where to invest the money? Because whatever you choose comes in the news that you have invested in a company and then its stock starts running up.
So what is that formula of yours through which you make the selection? No, of course the formula is not like this. The shares that I buy, I find that they rise and later they fall, and when the fever subsides, I find out what the practical situation is. I am also not right. Out of 10 of my calls, two-three or four of my calls go wrong.
They are terribly wrong. It's not like that. So and Everybody Is a Genius in a Bull Market. So I kept getting bull market and I also kept considering myself as Shana, that yes, it is okay, I am also Shana. So that market is the biggest Shana market, madam. Let us proceed with this understanding. So sorry what was your question or else how do you choose?
You're saying there's madness in IPOs. The market is overvalued. Not everyone can go into private equity. So how do you choose? So this is it, see what is there here, it is the same thing that a lotus blooms in the mud, so what you have to do is that right now I am not a fund manager that I have to make a portfolio of 200 companies or 500 companies, I have to invest in 10-15 companies, so what I have to do is that there are 6000 companies, I have to choose only one or two companies, what we are talking about does not mean that all the companies are overvalued and all the companies are undervalued, there is nothing like that in the market, so I have to choose a story, a good story in a market, even if the future market falls, it is okay.
It is okay if the market grows. Even if it is sideways, it is fine. It's okay if there's euphoria. One such story I have to choose is this. So you can choose such opportunities in the market also. It is not that all these listed shares are bad. By saying this we are talking index wise that yes brother the index and the general trend is not earning any money in the market right now.
This is just an index, you can understand that it is around 5-7% from the all-time high and the common man is not earning money in the market right now. But if you maintain patience and do it properly, if you learn not to leave it and think that I do not want to invest in my company, then you will get one story out of 10 or one story out of 100 in this market also.
How many proposals do you get in a day? To invest in the company. Yes, I was the one who thought that I had come wearing kurta-varta. Is she arranging my marriage? So today is Karwa Chauth brother, what are you talking about investing, yes, please say it a little clearly, you are a journalist, it happens like this with Tamanna, not a little, ma'am, I get a lot of proposals, at least one proposal must come every day, but right now I will tell you that I am not here, I don't meet people at all, I get a lot of proposals from people, this is the best, the most interesting proposal for investment, a company that you found very interesting and a company which you might find a little useless, what kind of idea is this, tell me both, no, see, like I recently invested in a company five-six months ago, I invested in a cyber security company, it is an Ahmedabad based company and I liked it, I also liked the promoter, I also liked their business plan, I also like that sector, that company got listed a few days ago, 10-15 days ago, so after listing, understand the price with your luck, it will stand double or triple, so understand this is good and a company came to me and he said that like I am buying those artificial leaves I make artificial plants and there would be two or three shops of his, so he said that those are artificial plants, I make them and I have to open more shops, I have to bring IPO for it, then I said brother, just now Phool Patti Mare said that there is nothing against his work, but such proposals also come, so I said brother, I do not do all this IPO YPO work.
I don't even invest in all these IPOs. So many such proposals come. A man came and I met him somewhere and he said that I have opened six-seven restaurants and he too has opened six-seven restaurants and his turnover would be around Rs. 7-8 crore per year and he also wants to bring an IPO. So now he also has to become Joto or McDonald.
So these kinds of proposals are so nonsense that sometimes I start thinking that whatever time I have spent in the stock market in my life, I have never seen that such an IPO can come. IPO of such people can also come. So those people are also very upset that I have to bring an IPO in the market. Otherwise, perhaps two things are happening in this.
On one hand, this frenzy is because people's appetite has increased. Those who are entrepreneurs, they want to grow and the other people are looking for opportunity. So how to bridge that gap? Do you think at the end of the day it's the market that will provide that comfort? You talked about patience.
What is your outlook for the next 12 years and 12 months? So first of all let me tell you that I do not think that the figures of the IPOs that are coming can be wrong. I think that out of 10, seven to eight IPOs are coming only so that my company can get listed. So for this also IPOs are coming so that I can go and tell my office or my people that look my company is listed.
So people feel a sense of pride in that. So, maybe seven out of 10 people might be bringing IPO for this reason. And then that merchant banker gives them value. You also have three subsidiaries. You have four companies. Add this to it. Add that to it , make this turnover, do this. The rest of the engineering is then done by merchant bankers there.
So they are doing this so that people are ready to give money to such companies. So I feel that this euphoria has started its downfall. That's what I think. This euphoria means this euphoria has already begun. And now people will understand this and the stock market system here is similar here. Here one cannot attain heaven without dying and people cannot go to heaven by reading history, they can go to heaven only after dying.
So the pattern here is similar. So there is nothing special in this and what you asked about 12 months, I think the market will move sideways for a few more days. I think that the big boom that we saw in the index wise or general market in 2021-22-23 is still a little far away. Even if the problem is solved because it is looming large.
If the tariff problem is solved, if you see a lot of capex now coming in and GST pushes up consumption, we seem right for a move. But you think there's some time for that? I also think that even if the Terry problem gets solved, then some markets here will go up very fast and then stabilize or some will go back up.
I don't think so. Because the answer lies in the fact that even after imposing tariffs, no market fell drastically. So this means all those things are discounted. People are also understanding that a person talks about something else in the morning and something else at night. So, he imposed the tariff today and will remove it tomorrow.
People also understand this. So I do n't think this saying is going to make much difference. The biggest buzz word today is AI. There is no such company. AI means Air India. In India, AI means Air India only. All AI does. Not all, but serious questions here. Ah there is I think I think no company, no PPT in any office.
There is no proposal which does not have an AI element in it. Weather it fits and doesn't fit is a separate matter. But I know I can openly ask you this question. Do you think a lot of this AI push that we're seeing? Is it really going to lead to improved revenues, the bottom line, or is it just PR and a bit of fluff?
No, I don't think there is any company in India which is really in AI and I will give you one more example, you know what is the profit that the person making the AI will get, leave it to Nvidia, I do n't know that, the one who will use AI in his business will be the most beneficial. So I had given this example somewhere like suppose refrigerator was invented, so when this discovery of refrigerator was made or when refrigerator was launched, the biggest benefit of it was not to refrigerator, not even to the companies manufacturing refrigerators, but the biggest benefit was to Pepsi and Coca Cola, they spread their network all over the world, wherever the sun goes, they made their company multinational by using refrigerators and till date there is no exception to it for Pepsi and Coca Cola, right now understand Camcola is coming to India, whatever will happen, it is a matter of time, it is only today, so refrigerators benefited from it, still there will be 500 companies manufacturing refrigerators worldwide, no single company has a monopoly, but Pepsi has a monopoly in itself, Coca Cola has a monopoly in itself, so the same thing I think is going to happen with the company which can use the AI prudently and its Increasing your productivity in that will be the biggest benefit to you.
So what is the parallel of Pepsi here ? Because everyone is trying to use it productively right BFSI IT service companies in every sphere people are trying to adopt AI which is going to be that one sector which will actually benefit. Do You Think That the Data Center Companies Are at the Forefront Right Now?
There is a lot of trend going on, their stocks of data center companies are running high. So of course this data center is also futuristic. Data center is just starting in India. So of course I also feel that his future is definitely bright. Now people will feel that yes, this is euphoria. It is like this and it is like that.
Whatever new revolution comes in every thing, no one comes into it first. Now everyone has to make semiconductors only. Right now, small companies are making semiconductors. So now he is a bus conductor and he also says that I will make semiconductors now. So right now this U phoria is ultimately going to die down.
Same thing, right now there is a server installed in my house, so he will say that it is my data centre, I will say that the server is a data centre. Now no one knows what data center this is, what is a conductor and what is a semiconductor here. So right now we are all learning new words. Fashion is a fashionable word, we are learning all this.
So this euphoria will definitely die down inside him. But ultimately you think that e-commerce came to India in 2000. And once that even Amazon understand all this. So it dies down once everyone gets into it. Then the small players get out. The industry gets consolidated. New technology comes. The old and small people do not have the money to adopt new technology.
The talent doesn't remain. There is no capital. So it consolidates. So I think their future should be for 10-20 years, their future should be for now. You look at China, whatever is happening in China is ultimately going to happen in India. You should understand that we are decades behind China. We are very much behind this.
Just yesterday I read many times that 3 lakh robots are going to be installed somewhere, 3 lakh robots are going to be installed, the announcement has been made today, there is an Indian company that has tied up with a German robotics company, it is going to make good ABB gold for them, so they are going to be making humanoid robots, yes, all these things are happening today, I understand your truth, the conductor of the bomb is also being made as well as the semiconductor, but all these things are also happening, yes, only if they happen then I will say that their future is bright, I agree with you.
Ultimately this is the future. Whatever you are saying while crying or whatever you are saying, this is it. Data center is the future. This is going to stay. This may happen once, it may consolidate a little but ultimately this is the future. So what kind of choices are you making right now ? From what you are saying it sounds like you are thinking semiconductor, data center, AI these are all buzz words.
If we look at Vijay Kedia's portfolio, what is front and center in it? No, see, right now it is not like this, Tamanna ji, that if we understand that AI, if we just talk nonsense, if only the data center will run, then we will forget to eat and drink, we are not going to eat chips, we will only eat potato chips, we will not eat those chips which are made of semiconductor chips, so these things are not going to end, so these things are going to remain in their place, even in my corporation there is no such company that makes AI semiconductors, you heard, the prices of all of them have reached so far because there is no company in my radar.
So nowadays I invest a little bit in some of the startups and all these companies. So as I said, I invested in a cyber security company. Invested in two cyber security companies. I have invested in a solar company right now, all these are unlisted players. So my focus is also on them rather than the secondary market or the public market.
And it is not so. Even in the public market, as I said, it is not that there will be no opportunities here. There will be opportunities here too. Like I like the hospital industry, ultimately, as per the population of India, as per the rate at which awareness is increasing among the people for health, I feel that it is a sunrise industry, I feel that the tourism industry is a sunrise industry, there is nothing of domestic tourism here, so you will get such opportunity here also by thinking selectively, so at this time how much part of your portfolio is in private equity, in this you know you are looking at individual non listed companies, how much of your time is going in that, right now most of my time is spent in that, so do you watch the market watch of that every day or not?
Yes, the market keeps moving along with it, but my focus is there as well and it will not be much, 10-15% of my portfolio will be in startups or in these, okay so going forward, right now we are talking before Diwali, people who are making their portfolio will also do some trading on the day of Diwali Muhurat on one Samvat, which kind of stocks are going to be the most auspicious, which sectors do you think will be better for the next year.
Clearly, are you interested in your platform companies? Clearly you have said that you will stay away from AI data centres etc. So the future of the platform company is definitely bright. This is going to stay. It is not that this is temporary and will stop later. It doesn't seem so. But I will not invest in such shares because already they are very expensive.
So I am not focused on them. So as I said that I am bullish on the hospital industry and the tourism industry. I like ah airline shares, I like hospitals. I like the shares of tourism infrastructure which are listed or you know, at this time I think as soon as everyone came to know that you are coming, then during the tea break people were asking me whether you will get Khedia ji to sing a song or not because this is our track record.
So have you come prepared with something or a googly? Today I have prepared that national anthem. Everyone will have to stand up. I sang a song once, brother. Rahul ji made me sing a song in front of Madam and the Finance Minister in Delhi and after that the next day I requested that today I have a desire to live again.
I intend to die again today. He said, you go away brother. Madam, she will get you inside. No, no, you did not say anything like that. You did not speak. I'm just joking. You did not speak. But once he gave me a chance. You should leave all that. You talk about investors looking for a brighter Diwali.
To earn profit in Diwali, the name of our channel is Profit. We talk for your profit. Something for those who want to make profits this Diwali and build a good portfolio for the next year. Any message for them? No. The message for them is that brother, invest wisely. Don't waste your time on rumours.
This is a business of knowledge and patience. Learn from experience and do your best. Digest your defeat also. Neither I nor you should get misled by people. Manifest your victory. So this is my message to them that they should work after thinking and understanding. Don't get carried away by all these market trends, otherwise you will be in trouble.
Yes, you sing a song. This, yes, this was just a poem. Now the song should also be offered now. Now he will sing the song Evening in Mumbai. No, Kedia ji already said that it is Friday evening and we are giving them water to drink. So 7:30 p.m. 7:30 pm Kedia G for for the the the post post session we have to have a song.
Then I will have to think of a song. I can't remember. this Mike Mike Mike here. You will have to think of the song first. No no, but remind me brother which song do you want to sing, no no, but you have done a lot of it recently as well, especially when GST reforms came, you have done it on that too, can you tell on the condition of the market what lies ahead because right now there is a little question mark in the minds of the investors as to what is going to happen next, what is going to happen next, see, this has become a thing, no one understands, why do you keep growing and falling, why do these 90% people lose money, those who thought well understand this, those who took and sat, they are the ones who earned, these 90% people could not sit, open your eyes brother, think a little brother, nine out of 10 people would have invested money in trading, it is simple but it is a maze, no one could escape, BA CCM brother, you know I think, if nothing else, you can at least invest at your record level.
Do you have any such plans at your own record level ? I do n't have any plans right now, you gave me the idea today that I will find the first investor here, I will go out and take it from you. I learnt my style from you and I used it on you. So, tell me this as we wrap up this session and you know, you leave people with a question of hope.
You have given a warning that 90% of the people here lose money in FNO etc. You have said that you should exercise restraint. But a message of hope is the name of our program NDTV Profit Ignite. We want to keep a ray of new hope in the minds of people through this. Any message or song for them ? For a ray of hope.
So for that I will tell you. You talked about Trump because this Trump, he wakes up in the morning and evening and says something else at night. He also probably has something from 7:00 am to 7:00 pm. So on that I wrote a song for Trump sir, I said that it is good that you picked me up. We also awakened the sleeping power.
Now we will find new ways. Now the time has come for a developed India. We will take a breath only after making India the number one country by 2047. Creation is then history. Creation is then history. That's the inimitable Vijay Kedia for you. Truth Bombs by the Minute. Always a poem and a song ready for every occasion.
Thank you so much Kedia ji for talking to us. But one by one and before we go before we wrap this session NDTV Profit is doing a lot. Our aim is to teach every viewer and every investor how to make profits. We Work For Your Profit. We've Been Doing a Lot of Things to Add Awareness Something Any Commentary on the Work We've Been Doing.
Any comments you have on the work we are doing? No, great. What is your work? There is profit in your name itself, brother. So that is your work, your name is telling about your work. So, good and wonderful people are joining you and who is better than you, that brother, everyone is excellent, so it is very good.
Rahul ji has arrived. So tell me, right now everything is going great for you. So great, best wishes to you and you guys are doing a great job. Spreading awareness among people. We are giving messages to the people. So, very good, best wishes to you. Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you for your wishes Vijay Kedia ji.
Round of a close for Vijay Kedia. [Appreciation] One quick question thatOne quick question that Neeraj had. Neeraj you want to quickly ask. OK very quickly. Kedia ji, whenever your name comes up, whether Vijay Kedia or Kedia Securities has taken stock in the block, people blindly follow it. You have to give that some messaging because you know people follow you a lot sir.
Otherwise, that is wrong. I think you have asked a good question. Thank you very much Neeraj Bhai. The first thing is that so many fake accounts have been opened. Even today, six-seven people were wishing me on my birthday. So I checked my horoscope and found that today was my birthday. Then I took out my Aadhar card and saw that it was indeed my birthday, so so many people are wishing me on my birthday today because someone posted it on Facebook as some other Vijay Kedia and so many accounts are opened on Facebook, Instagram, here and there.
Brother, I do not provide any service. I am not a broker. I am not a consultant. I am not a portfolio manager. Even my wife does not let me handle her portfolio. She also says that you are useless and will drown me. So you people should also keep this in mind that the house's Bedi Lanka is two and a half, you should understand the matter.
If even my wife doesn't trust me then you should not trust me. Invest very carefully and if the shares increase due to my lending, then it is a temporary phenomenon. People will realise it later and I also want to tell you one thing that Neeraj Bhai, I also think carefully that my name should not come up.
Because maybe I am doing it wrong. I also have two-three shares out of 10 which go wrong. I will sell it and leave. At that time I will come back and say, I am not going to come and say that I am selling it or I have sold it. Then you will know about the share holding pattern when it comes to quarter ending.
So this is a request that you do not do that work. Consider this a hint for you. If you but you should match that with you. Even if my shares decrease by 40 rupees, he will not take my water. My water is going to stay here. That 7:00 pm water will not come to me. But it can cause a lot of harm to you.
If the price falls by 20-30 rupees, you will sell it and leave, but I can hold the shares for 4 years. After that I can get my profit inside it. So your temperament should match mine to follow me. So don't do that kindly and do it after thinking carefully. Use your intelligence in it too. So this will be better for you and for everyone.
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