저자: 찰리멍거 · 외국인
요약 보기
가치투자의 미래는 어렵지만 기회는 여전히 있다는 결론이다. 가치투자자들은 경쟁자가 많아져 기회가 줄어드니 적게 버는 것에 익숙해져야 한다고 조언한다. 기회의 원천은 기술 변화가 아니라 다른 사람들이 어리석은 일을 하는 것이라고 주장한다. 자본 접근성이 쉬워져 어리석은 투자가 더 크게 늘었다는 것이다. 소액 자금을 운용하는 개인에게는 기회가 더 클 것이라고 본다. 금융 시장에는 똑똑한 사람들이 많아져 서로를 이기려 하고, 단기 실적과 기대치 맞추기에 집중하는 세계가 되었다. 이런 환경은 5~20년을 보고 투자하는 사람에게 오히려 유리하다고 평가한다. 버핏과 멍거는 기회 판단에서 의견이 달랐으며, 멍거는 세상을 더 비관적으로 본다고 언급한다. 구체적인 종목이나 자산에 대한 가격 전망은 없다.
다듬은 글
uh given the rise of disruptive technologies that can improve productivity significantly and AI being one of them how do you envision the future of value investing in this new era and what adaptations or new principles do you think investors should adopt and any recommendations for investors to remain successful in this rapid changing landscape thank you well I'm glad to take that one I think value investors are going to have a harder time now that there's so many of them competing first a diminished bunch of opportunities so my advice to Value investors is to get used to making less and Charlie was been telling me the same thing the whole time we've known each other I mean wait wait we get along wonderfully because we are making less yeah well but that's because that mostly I think is because it's larger they were younger we never thought we could manage 508 billion no one or five yeah but I I would argue that uh there's gonna be plenty of opportunities and part of the reason they're going to be plenty of opportunities the the tech doesn't make any difference or any of that I mean if you look at how the world changed in the in the years since 1942 when I started to say well how does a kid that doesn't know anything about airplanes it doesn't know anything about androgens and cars and doesn't know anything about them electricity and all that but that really isn't the that's not there the world changing doesn't or new things coming along don't take away the opportunities what gives you opportunities is other people doing dumb things well the 58 years we've been running Berkshire I would say there's been a great increase uh and the number of people doing dumb things and they do big dumb things and the reason they do it to some extent is because they they can get money from other people so much easier than when we started so you could start 10 or 15 dumb insurance companies in the last 10 years and you could become rich uh if you were a Droid at it whether the business exceeded it or not and the underwriters got paid and the lawyers got paid and that creates if that's not on a large scale which it couldn't be done what 58 years ago you couldn't get the money to do some of the dumb things that we wanted to do fortunately uh and uh so I think the investing has disappeared so much from this huge capitalistic Market that anybody can play in but the big money is in selling other people ideas it isn't outperforming and I think if you don't run too much money which we do but if you're running small amounts of money I think I think the opportunities will be greater but then Charlie and I have always differed on this subject he he likes to tell me how gloomy the world is and I I like to tell them we'll find something and and so far we've both been kind of right on that or not there is there is so much money now in the hands of so many smart people all trying to outsmart one another and not promote one another getting more money out of other people and it's a radically different world from the world we started in and I suppose it will have its opportunities but it's also going to have some unpleasant episodes but they're trying to outsmart each other in arenas that you don't have to play I mean if you look at that Government Bond Market I feel at the treasury ball Market I mean you've got this one bill that's out of line with the others when we want over three billion of us the other day and and but the world is overwhelmingly short-term focused and if you go to an investor relations call they're all trying to figure out how to fill those other sheets to show the earnings for the year and the management is interested in feeding them expectations that will slightly be beaten I mean that that is the world was made to order for anybody that's trying to think about what you do that should work over five or ten or twenty years and I I just think that I would love to be born today and go out with not too much money and hopefully turn it into a lot of money and Charlie would too actually just like he he would find something to do I will just guarantee you uh and it wouldn't be exactly the same as before but he would have a big big big pile I would not like the thrill of losing my big pile into a small pot but we like my big pile Just the Way It Is Well I like we agree on that incidentally okay we do you're one of the most extreme lovers of the big pile
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