저자: WarrenBuffett · 외국인
요약 보기
20세기 미국 1인당 GDP는 610% 성장했으나 다우지수는 장기 횡보 구간(1921~1948, 1965~1981)이 많았다. 투자자는 과거 수익을 따라가는 군중심리 때문에 과열과 공포를 반복하며, 이는 기회가 된다. 감정에서 벗어나 사업 자체의 가치를 판단해야 한다는 교훈이다. 특정 자산에 대한 향후 방향 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
I'm just curious, you know, there are a lot of differences between the recent stock market boom and bust and the ones in the 1920s. But there are also many similarities, and these similarities give people reason to conclude that stock prices will be depressed for some time to come. What do you agree with and what do you disagree with in this conclusion ?
Well, this whole century is quite interesting. If you look at the 20th century, it was an incredible period for the United States. GDP per capita , and that's how you should think about it—per capita. Sometimes people talk about our GDP compared to Europe's, but if their population is stable every year and ours is growing by 1%, then, you know, ultimately you have to have both a divisor and a numerator.
So, GDP per capita in the United States grew by 610% in the 20th century. In fact, qualitatively it grew much more, because it is impossible to measure certain things, for example , in medicine or something else, but even quantitatively it grew every decade, including the 1930s. Here you have had a hundred years where, essentially, American citizens improved their well-being decade after decade, in the 30s it increased by 13%.
The best decade was World War II, the 1940s; it grew by 36%. The worst decade was World War I, so you…sometimes, you know, you can get into trouble with analogies, but whatever , it was a huge period. Interestingly, during this time there were six major periods for the stock market in both directions.
There were three major bull markets. From 1900 to 1921, the Dow rose from 66 to 71; that's less than 10% growth in 20 years. Less than half a percent per year. You also received dividends, but...So it didn't move from the 21st to the 29th, as you noted, it went up from 71 to a high of 381 in September 1929.
Increased by 500%. Well, it's obvious that the country's welfare didn't increase by 500% during this period. The country's prosperity grew by much more than 10% during the first 21 years. So we have this very uneven development. Then, from September 1929 to the end of 1948, the Dow fell from 381 to about 180.
It halved. And it was a long 18 years. Yet GDP per capita has been growing steadily throughout this period. So, the economy was feeling good. From 1948 to 1965, the Dow rose again from about 180 to almost a thousand. Again , five times, which was significantly ahead of expectations. From '65 to '81, the Dow fell, literally, well, again, GDP per capita.
And then there was this last period where he grew incredibly. If you take the whole hundred years, it grew 180 times, each unit became 180,000, but 43 and a quarter years were those three huge bull markets, and 56 and a quarter years were periods of stagnation, and all this in an economy that was doing well.
You know, year over year, 56 and a quarter years the Dow overall fell a few hundred points, and the remaining 43 and a quarter years provided the rest of that move from 66 to 11,000 with something behind the Dow. So you ask yourself: how could it be that the country was developing better, better, better and better?
Citizens lived in such a way that each succeeding generation lived better than the previous one. But at the same time, huge changes took place: great achievements several times and long periods of stagnation, 20 years each. I mean, 20 years of doing nothing is a long time. The answer is that investors behave very humanly: they get very excited during bull markets, look in the rearview mirror and say, “ I made money last year.
This year I will earn even more, so this time I will borrow." You know, or the neighbor says, "I didn't invest last year, and that neighbor who's dumber than me made a ton of money, so this year I'm going." So, they are always looking in the rearview mirror. And when they look back and see that a lot of money has been made in recent years, they put everything in and just push, push, push the prices up.
And when they look back and see that no money was made, they just say, "This is a bad place to invest." So they don't care what's really happening with the business. And it's simply amazing. But this is precisely what creates huge opportunities . Just huge opportunities. I mean, I've lived through about half, in an investment sense , almost half of that period.
And I found that long period of stagnation from '65 to '82, 17 years. I wrote an article for Forbes in 1979. I just asked myself, how is this possible? Pension funds in 1970 invested over one hundred percent of new funds in stocks because they were excited about them . Then they fell significantly in price, and in 1978, when stocks were worth much less, funds directed a record low 9% of their new money into them.
People behave very strangely because of their reactions, because they are human, and they get excited when others get excited. They become greedy when others become greedy. They are afraid when others are afraid, and they will continue to be so . And you will see things you won't believe in your lifetime, and the stock markets and the country will feel very good over time.
But you will see these huge waves; and if you can remain objective, if you can emotionally detach yourself from the crowd, you will become very rich. And you do n't have to be very smart. I mean, of course you're smart, but it doesn't take brains, it takes temperament, the ability to sit and observe things.
When I started in 1950, I would find companies that were worth half their earnings, even though they were perfectly decent businesses, people wanted to work there, and everyone knew they weren't going anywhere , but they wouldn't be bought even at that price, even though the interest rates were two and a half percent.
I started selling securities when I was 21 years old. My company, Kansas City Life Insurance, was quite well-known in Omaha. The policies they sold, if you bought life insurance from them, had a fixed rate of 2% per annum. Kansas City Life shares were selling for less than three years' worth of earnings.
You would have received 35% per annum if you had bought these shares. There was no doubt about the reliability of the company. I went to a local agent. I thought I could sell him a few shares. I mean, this guy understood that he had invested his whole life in this company. I went to a local agent who had been working there for 20 years and his name was Moose.
I said, " Mr. Moose, you're selling these policies at 2%." You might even have a few members of your family, and you can invest in this company, whose salary you depend on every month and whose future, your future and the future of your beneficiaries under these life insurance policies depend on it, and who you sell them to, you know, at 2% investment, and you can get 35% on your money.
They said, you know, the stocks were no good, and I couldn't, I couldn't sell them , you know, I was a terrible salesman. I mean, well, that's where you have to start, but, you know, it just amazed me. This amazed me. I thought, sometimes I asked myself if I was going crazy, you know. But the same thing happened with those things .
I mean, in 1964, the Dow closed at 864. At the end of 1981 , 17 years later, it closed at 865. It's only changed one point in 17 years. Well, it's a small movement. And you wouldn't believe how disappointed people were during that period, even though in reality people lived better. So, things that don't make sense can last a long time, but they still end.
I mean the Internet boom , when companies were sold for billions of dollars without any real prospects of making money. This is the "bubble". Herb Stein once said: everything that can't last forever will eventually end. It sounds simple, but think about it, especially the next time you try to do something just because the stock is up a lot or your neighbors made money doing it.
You should just sit down and think objectively, asking yourself: would I buy this business outright? If an internet company issued 100 million shares that sell for $100, that's 10 billion. Is it worth 10 billion dollars? If it's worth 10 billion, it should be able to bring you, say, 700 or 800 million next year.
And if it doesn't bring you 700-800 million next year, it should bring 10% more every year after that and continue in the same vein. Not many businesses are capable of this. And people are just going crazy. And , of course, it's fun. It's , you know, like that sign they hang in brokerage offices . He says, "To avoid a hangover, don't go dry." "You know, I mean, it's so fun to keep playing, but you have to do sensible things to get good results.
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