저자: MoneyManagement채널진행자Andy · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라(TSLA)는 기술적으로 이중바닥 돌파로 상승 여력이 크며 목표가 1,216달러, 확장 시 1,400달러 이상을 제시한 영상이다. [기술적 분석] 주가가 이전 고점 저항을 돌파해 ABC 조정 파동이 무효화됐다고 판단했다. 이중바닥 패턴과 0.382 피보나치 되돌림에서의 강한 반등을 근거로 강세를 본다. 피보나치 확장으로 1차 목표 1,216달러, 2차 1,400달러, 장기 1.618 확장 목표를 제시했다. [펀더멘털] 시가총액 약 7,677억 달러, 매출 418.6억 달러, 순이익 21.8억 달러, 매출 성장률 62.84%다. PER 408.64로 고평가 우려가 있으나 목표가 범위는 150~1,200달러로 애널리스트 편차가 크다. [실적 뉴스] 2021년 3분기 인도량 241,300대로 컨센서스 약 233,000대를 상회했다. 2021년 연간 약 90만~100만 대 인도 전망이 나온다고 소개했다. [출연자 및 기관 관련 뉴스] Chamath Palihapitiya가 테슬라 지분을 매도해 다른 투자처에 재투자한다는 뉴스를 언급했다. Cathy Wood의 ARK는 포트폴리오 리밸런싱 차원의 매도로 보며 큰 우려는 아니라고 봤다. [리스크 및 결론] 고PER과 애널리스트 목표가 편차를 리스크로 언급하며 직접 실사(due diligence)를 권했다. 전체 결론은 기술적 돌파를 근거로 한 강세 관점이다.
다듬은 글
what's up everybody welcome to money management channel my name is andy and today i'm going to be doing an analysis on tsla ticker and in today's video first of all i will show you where we are on a price chart and how we get there then i will continue with the fundamental news of this company and with the news from kathy wood and from chamad palihaptia and how these two persons can affect the price of this company and at the end of this video i will share my thoughts and i will share my technical analysis and the problem forecast for the price section so let's start with the price chart we have a very good movement from the beginning of october till the end of january and i did a couple of videos about this sticker at the end of january and i've told you that we have to go lower from this point because we were extremely on other board territory and all of the tools and all of the indicators shows me that we can go lower and basically it happened and why i am starting to do another update on this sticker and here is why as you can see we have this movement to the upside that broke this previous swing high and it is extremely important that we broke it for now because we invalidated the counter where we might go lower even lower than the range of 542 dollars and i will show you in my technical analysis so what am i talking about but for now let's continue with the fundamentals so let's start with the company profile everybody knows what is this company about and let me show you just some numbers for now the total market cap of this company is 767.74 billion dollars they have a revenue of 41.86 billion dollars with enact income of 2.18 billion dollars they have very good revenue growth of 62.84 and their total cash position is 16.23 billion with the total debt of only 11.17 billion dollars and they have a current ratio as in a textbook of 1.51 so and let me show you that the main concern of some analysts is about this number pe ratio of 408.64 it is extremely high p e ratio and that's why a lot of analysts are told that this company is extremely overvalued and that is why on the trans.com as you can see we are on ticker tesla we have 26 ratings and the lowest estimation the lowest price point according to this data is 150 dollars and the highest price point is 1.2 thousand dollars per share and it is extremely huge spread and that's why you have to be cautious and do your own due diligence and decide whether or not you want to invest in this company so and let me show you institutional investors of this stock on for this company and we have a lot of filings and i don't want to dive deep right here i just want to tell you some general numbers for now this company in total has a 3 240 institutional investors 3 076 of them have a long position 67 of them have a short position and 97 of them have a mixed position so i have to say that a lot of institutional owners are extremely bullish on this company that is why we have this massive pe ratio of 408 so and let me show you some latest news we are on seeking alpha and this article was published uh just yesterday and it's titled tesla tops expectations with q3 deliveries of 241 000 and let me quote you these bullets tesla reports that it produced approximately 238 000 vehicles in q3 and delivered 241.3 000 vehicles the consensus street estimate was for around 233 000 vehicles delivered in the quarter that saw supply chain constraints hit heart in july and august the quarterly tally for the electric vehicle juggernaut included model s and x deliveries of 9275 vehicles and model 3 and wide deliveries of 232 025 vehicles with bush securities forecast tesla will deliver around 890 000 to 900 000 range for the full year so a lot of estimations uh for now tells us that we might see around the 1 million deliveries for the full year 2021 for this company and it is extremely high number and let me remind you that if i remember it correct last year they delivered only 300 000 vehicles somewhere at that point and during this year they launched two gigafactories and it is also very good sign for the their deliveries and on top of that they beat the market with their fsd system and that is why in my opinion they have this extremely high pe ratio and that is why a lot of investors believe in this company and they believe that this company will hit 1500 dollars per share so and let me show you some news uh related to this company on september 29th we have for this article that is published one time big test label chamath palihapita says he sold his position and let me quote you these bullets social capital founder ceo chamath palihaptia revealed that he sold his tesla position for capital to invest in other investment ideas he said he excited his bet on the elon musk led electric vehicle company in the last year or so as the high prices allowed him to generate cash to fund his other ideas so we all know that chamath is a king of sparks and he can produce two to three x in a matter of for just a couple of months with his spark mergers and that is why for now it is very wise idea to sell the entire amount of his shares because he just need money to fund his other ideas where he can make much more gains and where he can make much more profits within less period of time and another news right here let me show you that uh we are on uh kathysark.com website and uh right here as you can see we are on a tesla ticker and on a rkk holdings font and these red dots show us that this fund is selling tesla stocks and a lot of analysts and a lot of youtubers as well told that uh kathy is disappointed with tesla stock and that's why she sells this asset but guys let me show you that in total she has more than 7.27 of her entire portfolio only in tesla and her position is more than 2.78 billion dollars still very high number and uh she sold just a fraction of for these shares and only a rkk fund for now has more than 2.5 million shares and it is extremely extremely high number of shares and this movement this sell-off is just a rebalancing of her portfolio and because of the nature of funds she has to do this uh rebalancing in order to stay profitable in order to stay in line with the expectations of investors and that's why i think it is not a bad sign and basically i have nothing to add to this news let's continue with the technical analysis and before we dive deep right here please subscribe to my channel hit notification bell and hit the like button this helps me a lot so guys why i started to make a video about tesla right now because we broke this resistance let me mark it for you this resistance was broken this week and this breakout invalidated discount this simple zigzag that might be right here and with the c waff we might go even lower and with this breakout we invalidated uh this uh abc correction and this means our abc correction for now is right here this is the bottom and it is a double bottom with the awf and it is extremely extremely bullish pattern so let me show you that on a log scale on a daily time frame we can see several waves and definitely this triangle shows us that this is the the third wave and in my opinion we might have something like this this is our first wave second third fourth and fifth let me show you the wave itself and this movement has a retracement to these levels and let me show you that for now we have this reaction from 0.382 level and this reaction is a very bullish i have to say we have a double bottom pattern and it is extremely bullish for any asset and that's why in my opinion after this breakout we might see higher targets and we might break this previous all-time high so what to expect next in my opinion if it is the real case if we finished all five waves we can project new targets and to do so i pull the fibonacci extension 2 from the bottom of entire movement to the top of this movement and to the bottom of the retracement and here are some levels with the assumption that uh this is the first wave or on the worst case scenario it is the third wave in this case uh our price target is at the level of 1216 dollars right here and with the extension in uh fifth wave if it is the fifth wave we might have this range at one to one extension at the price point of fourteen hundred dollars as our second target and third target might be even right here at 1.618 extension level and it is confluence with the potential third wave if we've just finished the first wave uh we might hit this level and in this case it might be our primary target but it is a long-term target i have to say but still from our current price we might have about 2 x to this level to the level of 1400 and it is extremely juicy profits with this type of company with this huge market cap so i think from the technical standpoint that's it for now if you like my video please hit the like button and subscribe to my channel with notification bell and see you guys and girls next time bye you
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